The Big Story Oil – Introduction

Featuring Raoul Pal

A great trade opportunity is building in the oil market and Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision and publisher of the Global Macro Investor, kicks off ‘The Big Story’, where he’ll look at all aspects of the oil market in a special extended series. Watch Raoul’s thought process develop, as he reaches out to experts in the sector, before putting together a trade at the end of the series. Introduction filmed on April 13, 2017, in the Cayman Islands.

Published on
5 May, 2017
Topic
Macro, Research, Energy Commodities
Duration
9 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Real Estate, Cash, Currencies, Crypto-currencies, Commodities
Rating
30

Comments

  • E

    Eric .

    3 8 2017 07:23

    0       0

    I'm still waiting for the actionable trade idea referenced in May. What is your recommendation? For example, a recent RV post stated to short VIPS.

  • DR

    David R.

    7 6 2017 11:22

    0       0

    So interesting. Who is the person gave it a thumbs down?! Raoul you lost your way on the dollar by going with the consensus, unlike when you nailed the dollar & oil 3 years ago and the US Bond a few months ago. I don't understand how, with your process you describe in this video, you got in with the huge crowd of dollar bulls to start this year (even the Economist featured a Dollar cover story 5-6 months ago).

  • CG

    Colin G.

    28 5 2017 16:13

    0       0

    This is such a great concept Raoul...l eagerly await the developing thesis you appear to have and any opportunity this may present in oil. Its invaluable in my opinion to understand the process...again Real Vision have nailed it.

  • PS

    PD S.

    17 5 2017 00:20

    2       0

    great job, raoul is as always da man! ;)

  • KS

    Kolby S.

    12 5 2017 03:17

    0       0

    Raoul, I've been short oil since mid February. My reason for initiating the position was solely based on the massive spec positioning in the COT data (my buddy Adam has amazing charts for free on his website freecotdata.com). I'll admit, my thesis on the trade was not nearly as well thought out as yours (I basically saw the spec positioning and immediately went short) but I'm curious as to how you plan on/are shorting? ie, 3x levered short ETN or actually selling futures contracts or something in between. I have a few bloomberg charts I think you might enjoy, I'll send them your way. Thanks for the video, it was a wonderful 8 minute break from dreaded CFA material.

  • wl

    william l.

    9 5 2017 03:52

    0       2

    I am a recent subscriber and very disappointed
    with what i have seen . They showed a 3 year old presentation with a lot of bull s in between . The current
    one is basically bull and not worth my time
    Bill L

    • DS

      David S.

      9 5 2017 05:54

      9       0

      Sorry that you are disappointed. I am a long-time viewer and have seen many worthwhile interviews. It will be difficult for you, but you might go back in the history and try to find people that you respect already and view their interviews. This will not help you trade tomorrow, but there is a wealth of information in old interviews. DLS

    • KS

      Kolby S.

      12 5 2017 03:12

      4       0

      Bill, I've been an RV subscriber for about six months now. If you are looking for "get rich quick" trade ideas, this is not the place to be. I would suggest seeking alpha, the motley fool, or any other bullshit click bait articles on the web. If you want to learn from some of the most brilliant minds in the business (learn how they think, learn how they got started, learn from their mistakes), then RV is a great place to be and well worth the money.

  • MK

    Mark K.

    8 5 2017 17:52

    2       0

    China is drafting rules that may require 8% of car sales in 2018 to be electric vehicles. I think a large part of the long term worry on oil markets are the developments in EV's, solar power, battery storage etc. This doesn't mean, however, that the oil market cannot have an interim bounce higher.

  • KS

    Kazi S.

    8 5 2017 13:26

    4       3

    I thought this presentation was a bit Rearview. Filmed on April 14th, released on May 8th, with no real thesis in the presentation and with a pop up saying look how smart we are this was filmed in mid april and oil has collapsed 10% in the last month.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    7 5 2017 04:16

    5       0

    @Raoul: Many companies in the industry (some oil service companies, the offshore drillers and the oil shipping (tankers)) are at historically low P/B and thus at stock price historical lows (are these "hysterical" lows?). The companies that survive the next few years should thrive. Can you please include a few minutes on the oil price affects on such companies for the 3-5 year timeframe?

    • AC

      Andrew C.

      8 5 2017 05:50

      2       0

      Further to my comment; Total oil and gas discoveries have reached their lowest total in 60 years, according to research by IHS Markit.(http://resourceglobalnetwork.com/2017/02/13/oil-and-gas-discoveries-hit-lowest-total-in-60-years/)

  • NH

    Neil H.

    7 5 2017 00:52

    3       0

    Very interesting how you analyze the oil price. Would like to see the same analysis on the treasury market as I still do not understand how you conclude that the long bond goes below one percent. Should that happen I assume you would want to sell all other assets.

  • JG

    Joseph G.

    7 5 2017 00:24

    4       0

    Where else but real vision can you get these kinds of insights! Great work.

  • CT

    Christopher T.

    6 5 2017 20:36

    0       0

    Great series idea and encourage more of the same, but with a quicker turn around please :)

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    6 5 2017 17:05

    2       0

    Great opportunity to learn from a successful investor the research process for developing and testing an investment thesis. Based on past themes and value these five episodes will be worth the annual fee many times over. Love these casual and pragmatic themes!

  • RS

    Richard S.

    6 5 2017 13:50

    0       0

    For any aspiring or seasoned macro traders. RV has bridged such an important information gap to bring such sound and earnest material. Bravo.

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    6 5 2017 10:17

    0       1

    Can we get the OOTT 's Samir Madani on for an interview?

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    6 5 2017 10:15

    3       0

    I can't wait for parts 2 to 5. I am puzzled by the large spec long.

  • PK

    Pheerasut K.

    6 5 2017 09:45

    5       0

    Raoul .. This is excellent.
    Thanks for sharing your thought process !

  • MA

    Michael A.

    6 5 2017 08:05

    4       0

    This is absolutely brilliant, Raoul. The approach is applicable to any market (Real Estate, Bonds, Stocks, Commods etc). Especially for a young person like myself.

  • bf

    bart f.

    6 5 2017 06:28

    2       0

    Trade is on the way. Russia see RUB overvalued, Iran's breakeven are down to $50 and shale have reloaded hedges so olny Saudi see existential treath of lower prices. SAR FX swap have gapped higher

  • JV

    Jason V.

    6 5 2017 04:25

    3       0

    Just keeps getting better and better. This is a fantastic idea and a real fillip for subscribers. Very much looking forward to the next episodes.

  • RD

    Ryan D.

    6 5 2017 03:51

    5       0

    Real Visions just keeps upping the game! Bravo Gents. Bravo!

  • JA

    Jason A.

    6 5 2017 02:35

    5       0

    I love oil! Hurry up 😀

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    6 5 2017 02:14

    5       0

    This is so awesome Raoul! Learning from your process is priceless! Thank you,!

  • PS

    Peter S.

    6 5 2017 02:04

    7       0

    As someone that lives in Houston and works in oil & gas I'm definitely looking forward to this series. I travel around to all the different shale plays and the activity is getting stupid crazy again. Definitely seems out of place and not sustainable to me. Thanks for working this series up!

  • RN

    Ralph N.

    6 5 2017 01:11

    0       0

    Well done and extremely helpful, as are the Trade Idea videos. Hoping for a lot more like this in the future!!

  • JS

    John S.

    6 5 2017 00:11

    3       0

    Love it!

  • VK

    Viresh K.

    5 5 2017 23:21

    5       0

    Forget the opportunity, the best bit is the methodology and the framework. So much to learn for a young 24 year old.

  • MB

    Max B.

    5 5 2017 19:25

    0       0

    Fantastic idea...I am O

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    5 5 2017 17:27

    2       0

    Thank you Raoul!!! I live in Calgary and having a sound perspective on the oil market is paramount if you want to be successful here - even if your job is running a candy store :).

  • KB

    Keith B.

    5 5 2017 17:23

    1       0

    love this format & idea on how a theme and trade are born, researched and actioned.

  • DR

    De R.

    5 5 2017 17:07

    0       0

    WOW!

  • MS

    Matt S.

    5 5 2017 16:20

    5       0

    Great idea! - don't skimp on this series! Make them 1-2 hours long! Fill us with information! I want to come out of this series a master of oil! :D

    • BM

      Bryan M.

      5 5 2017 17:28

      2       0

      Don' get greedy...

    • IO

      Igor O.

      5 5 2017 17:29

      9       0

      F*ck that. I am shorting now.

  • DM

    Daniel M.

    5 5 2017 15:43

    8       0

    Rockin' sandals and a popped collar. Damn, Cayman looks fantastic - hire me please!

    • RD

      Ryan D.

      6 5 2017 03:46

      1       0

      Raoul is tre cool. I compose most of my trades in boxers with a beer.

  • RM

    R M.

    5 5 2017 15:04

    1       1

    Excellent! Of course , we just need to be a bit more timely! Thanks!

  • RM

    Richard M.

    5 5 2017 14:53

    11       0

    Wow Raoul, this is fantastic! You and your team at RV are truly giving your subscribers an incredible education and just plain doing a public service like no other that's been done before. I can't thank you enough for enlightening us with your thought process and actually showing us how you go about putting together an investment thesis (and then hopefully the best way to express it). Again, many thanks, Rick

  • SS

    Sam S.

    5 5 2017 14:31

    29       0

    Love this mini format, process ideas, well put together, Raoul is superb. Can't wait for episode 2. Hey Raoul---how about mini series on Gold and then again on Bitcoin. RV is spectacular.

    • BM

      Bryan M.

      5 5 2017 17:30

      3       0

      Great idea!!

  • WM

    William M.

    5 5 2017 14:17

    7       0

    I hope this series proceeds with some pace as I feel things may be coming to a head. Spent my life in the oil business and have witnessed many unexpected yet in hindsight predictable big moves in oil price. oh for a second chance......

  • DH

    Damian H.

    5 5 2017 11:45

    7       0

    Fascinating to see the 'big picture' and very excited to watch how this evolves.

  • cg

    christian g.

    5 5 2017 10:11

    14       0

    Thanks for sharing how you generate ideas and your investigation process. With a real example. This is priceless.