The Edge of The Cliff

Featuring Raoul Pal

With sky high equity valuations, economic uncertainty, plus concerns over interest rates, central bank reactions and debt, the risks are rising. With a stellar cast, featuring some of the greatest investors on the planet, The Big Story – Edge of The Cliff, examines the potential for a major market correction and what that means for investors, in a world of complacency and compressed volatility. Filmed in September 2017.

Published on
2 October, 2017
Topic
Financial System, Monetary policy, Macro
Duration
33 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Commodities, Cash
Rating
61

Comments

  • TC

    Timothy C.

    28 6 2018 19:22

    1       1

    I have heard these exact same arguments from many of the same people for nearly 10 years now. I am not saying they are wrong now but a lot of money would have been lost listening to the doomsayers. They will be right about a recession at some point; however, the question is whether it will be existential or simply another recession just like all the rest we have experienced since WW2. An existential event is completely different than a 2-3 year bear market. Don't overlever or reach for returns, know your risk limits and diversify.

  • VR

    Vincenzo R.

    26 6 2018 20:15

    2       0

    This Bubble is a Systemic Bubble.

  • DL

    Dan L.

    10 1 2018 02:07

    0       0

    What are the top 5 investments or asset classes that would benefit the most from a market collapse?

  • PJ

    Paul J.

    31 10 2017 19:44

    1       0

    Boo! Excellent piece for Halloween.

  • CH

    Colin H.

    25 10 2017 18:46

    0       0

    Good piece but I don't think we are there yet.
    The metrics I look at don't suggest we are in trouble yet.

  • AF

    Alex F.

    21 10 2017 04:23

    0       0

    "This time it's different" has been a dangerous phrase throughout history and that probably applies here too. Although, I do feel that the capital flows creating the current environment could continue for far longer than most would believe. As for Central Banks - we're on the Titanic and can see the iceberg ahead... but turning this thing around won't come easy..

  • AE

    Alex E.

    21 10 2017 04:03

    1       0

    There comes a point in the credit cycle when the crash becomes inevitable no matter what the Central Banks do. Egypt, Greece, Rome, The Ottoman Turk Empire, it doesn't matter. The end is coming whether we like it or not. Thank you Raoul for caring enough to give subscriber-age a thorough heads up!

  • RW

    Raymond W.

    14 10 2017 16:30

    2       0

    Since the financial crisis the central bankers have learned that they can intervene via intererest rate reductions and quantitative easing to prevent market downturns. There is now no going back. This cannot go on forever but it can go on for a very long time. Japan is a case in point ... they have been doing it for decades now. In fact they now print 25% of what their government spends each year and yet their currency has not depreciated like you would expect. The normal boom bust cycles are a thing of the past because the central banks realize that there is so much credit in the system that allowing a bust would start a cascade of asset depreciation that would result in another Great Depression. Check out Richard Duncan's web site. He seems to have a good grasp as to what is happening in this regard. I am surprised that Richard Duncan has not been a guest on Real Vision. Perhaps because he is a competitor to Real Vision.

  • JY

    James Y.

    10 10 2017 23:43

    0       0

    Greatly enjoyed this. Is the Mark Yusko portion part of a larger interview? I would be interested in watching the long version.

  • JV

    Jens V.

    10 10 2017 18:20

    0       0

    I love realvision! Thx guys

  • DR

    Debra R.

    9 10 2017 02:47

    1       0

    for a billionaire to say "no worries about interest rates rising in the US", I think he may be forgetting about the little person in the Street, which correct me if I am wrong is a large % of the US population.

  • CT

    Christopher T.

    8 10 2017 15:17

    2       0

    So much consensus on one side rarely ever proves to be right... too many examples of this

  • AB

    A B.

    8 10 2017 09:46

    1       0

    Very good editing snd juxtaposition of various view points. Well done

  • JN

    Jill N.

    7 10 2017 07:28

    0       1

    Excellent , thank you Raoul & Grant for stitching your highly learned , pragmatic RV contributors views together into one summary video.
    We concur with the views shared Can't help feeling there's a Big Short #2 movie unfolding ..

  • GG

    Glenn G.

    6 10 2017 22:54

    0       0

    I once heard that in a bull market it is like taking the stairs up, hard work and it takes a while to get to the top. In a bear market, it is like taking the elevator down, much easier and a lot quicker. Here we are with the S&P at 2,550 when it seemed very difficult to get through 2,500 this year. I would suggest taking a very small position in S&P puts 6 months out either as a hedge or outright position. You will be very glad you did and there will be a lot of easy money to be made. Do we really think that come November/December we are going to see the tax cut plan go smooth, the debt ceiling issues resolved, and nothing more on North Korea - all with Trump at the helm ? I say keep it small but have something in place for downside protection for now. JMHO

  • RP

    Roberto P.

    6 10 2017 15:02

    2       0

    I think almost all agree we are in a all bubble. We are all discusing when the bubble will burst. Obviously this is the hardest question to answer. In my view the main point is this : In 2000 the bubble was in the market and it was the internet buble. Then the bubble switch to house price in US (agian the unbalance was in the market). Then it bursts the european debt bubble. All this bubble were in the market. Now the bubble is in CB's balancesheet not in the market and in chinese banks (which are de facto policy banks rether than comercial banks) , so the timing of the burst is even harder to assess and that why (in my opinion) we have seen many hedge fund closing the door, including amazing and respected guy like Hugh Hendry. Any thought about this point will be welcome.

  • jd

    john d.

    5 10 2017 21:13

    6       0

    For those of our RV community who are lambasting this piece; you do remember the story of 'The little boy who cried wolf'?

    The wolf did come.

  • JR

    Jon R.

    5 10 2017 17:20

    10       0

    Today, I'm not seeing anywhere near the euphoria of 1999, nor the complacency of 2007. Most individual investors are asking about taking money off the table, not adding. I agree that returns for the next 10 years will be sub-par compared to the past 50 years, maybe far worse than that, but it's also possible we don't get a substantial correction until we rally another 30% from here. And with all due respect to Raoul & crew who I admire and respect....you didn't know the markets would collapse in 2008; you felt strongly they would and were correct.

  • JC

    John C.

    5 10 2017 16:39

    2       0

    Liked this, was a nice refresher of a lot of stuff we already knew or had heard about but might have missed in some of the videos. Need more of this stuff from time to time...I am way behind on videos and this summary helps.

  • nb

    nicholas b.

    5 10 2017 01:28

    0       0

    Iii🤗chubiinujc

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    4 10 2017 12:24

    6       0

    Wish I could be like the billionaires building bunkers in New Zealand (Peter Thiel and friends) instead when the unrest comes I will be in the middle of it. Ponzi schemes have to come to an end eventually and this one will be a doozy - maybe people will wake up to Goldman Sachs rigging a system that enriches the few at the expense of the masses. It will be ugly for sure.

  • NR

    Nuno R.

    4 10 2017 06:45

    8       2

    A lot of retail investors are going to see this video for the first time in the future and going to regret not having seen it earlier...

  • TS

    Todd S.

    4 10 2017 02:02

    1       0

    Thank you

  • BL

    Bruce L.

    3 10 2017 20:38

    11       1

    Wonderful piece. The ngative outcome may not occur but being aware of risks is essential. I am not accomplished as your many guests but I traded in the high inflation of 70's, trades the Hunt silver crisis, was in the pits in the 87 crash, in grains for Chernobyl, and in strategist role for GFC, a lot of experience and my spider sense is flashing. There will be big opportunity. As Burbank said you make the big money when you anticipate something that has never happened before.

  • RP

    Roberto P.

    3 10 2017 19:55

    16       0

    I tend to think that steep falls in markets happen when central bank are not intervening the market or are unware of risks. Post crisis central banks have been very engage with the markets. The best example is the fall in january 2016. The fall in the S&P500 was more than the 5% that says Kile Bass and we haven't have the game over. About the level of debt, it is true that it high, but Japan has live with it many years. About valuation, ERP is above or at average, so the problem could be first rates not equities. I would say that this is the most hated bull market with fearfull CB's, so this pattern could go on. Warren Buffet has said that equities are not expensive given the level of rates. It would be interesting to interview master of the universe in investment who are bullish and have and exchange with the people in the video.

  • SO

    Sercan O.

    3 10 2017 18:59

    6       2

    Big assumptions about the risk reward here... 10-20% upside vs 50-60% downside... What if the next downturn turns out to be only 10-20%? These big stock market decline scenario sounds like something will force central banks to withdraw a lot of liquidity and let the financial markets collapse. Not sure they will let that happen

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    3 10 2017 17:53

    16       1

    I totally disagree, long 100% equites since Feb 2016, up 58% in 2016, and up 28% in 2017 so far and I will stay long until 75ma of sp500 is broken and earnings of the sp500 are trending down. Until then, all experts quoted here are wrong, because the trend is your friend. RV is bearish since at least June 2015 and has been monster wrong! Your are early and being early is being wrong!

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    3 10 2017 17:25

    3       0

    RV... Thank you for your thoughtful approach to providing us with timely, excellent content.

  • TH

    Terry H.

    3 10 2017 13:21

    0       0

    Thnk you!

  • AF

    Andrew F.

    3 10 2017 12:33

    1       0

    Totally agree with what is being said. We in for a blow out. De -risk yourself and get defensive.
    Thanks RV

  • NH

    Nigel H.

    3 10 2017 11:53

    3       0

    You forgot Albert Edwards

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    3 10 2017 09:50

    14       0

    Thoroughly enjoyed this and agree with many of the views presented. My biggest concern is that shared by Marco: what is to stop the US and other main economies from becoming heavily taxed, slow-growth societies, much less dynamic and exciting than the original capitalist system we built, a system which I would argue is already under threat in many countries? What is stopping us from “becoming Japanese” in effect, where the Fed and other central banks start buying up the stock market in a significant way? Indeed, in the eyes of some mainstream commentators some of whom have been on RV, there are already unexplained events which suggest the Fed and others may be buying and selling the market at key points to keep things ticking over and ensure vol stays low. Thoughts welcome.

  • RK

    Roger K.

    3 10 2017 09:10

    9       0

    Hey Experts! What do you guys think when the stock market crashes , where would the money go into , would it be Gold or the Cryptocurrency ?

  • RM

    Robert M.

    3 10 2017 06:12

    10       0

    I recommend people make the y axis a log scale on long term charts like Grant's 50 yr SP 500 chart. It is the only fair way to compare swings in strength (steepness of the swings line) and extent (length of each swings line).
    The market does observe various trend channels on both linear and log charts. However the log charts are again much more compelling and become moreso the further back in time you go.

  • ek

    eric k.

    3 10 2017 06:03

    9       1

    just like a negative divergence on a chart, high valuations are not a trigger to short a market...it needs to be something else...we can talk blue in the face about valuations but that is just a warning sign w/no trigger

  • SS

    Steve S.

    3 10 2017 05:45

    5       0

    best video yet! Central bankers have perverted financial markets

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    3 10 2017 03:02

    11       1

    Great job RV on bringing these speakers together in a coherent way. The arguments around over-valuation of stock and bond markets have been around for some time, certianly several years. Yet the market marches higher with almost no volatility. So it is right for a sceptical mind to ask 'If all of the negatives have failed to dent the rally, what is needed to end it?' History tells us it could be anything, or even nothing exogenous, but I have a hunch it will be inflation. Central banks and super low interest rates have driven this rally, and so the withdrawl of these needs to happen for a heavy fall. Rising inflation would not only lead to higher rates but also inhibit what CB's could do to help markets if they stumble. Low inflation is the Jenga block holding up the whole crazy edifice.

  • IC

    Ibrahim C.

    3 10 2017 02:53

    5       0

    While watching thoroughly subtle reviews of what we have been living, I could only think of the movie "The Big Short" when Dr. Michael Burry foresaw exactly what was happening in MBS market in 2006 and shorted them very very early. And after a long while, he was right. I do not have the sense of data and capability to review these facts as these smart brains are doing now, but when the haze of popped-up money bubble fades away, people will understand that the King is totally naked and vulnerable to accept anything!

  • RI

    R I.

    3 10 2017 02:33

    6       3

    Sorry, RV; valuation is not a catalyst. Expensive gets more expensive before cheap gets cheaper.

  • GC

    Gary C.

    3 10 2017 02:07

    1       1

    Agree with Elizabeth C.
    Hussman's latest discusses
    "Unfiltered Effluvium"
    Catch a wiff of that 💨 🌪

  • SB

    Sergei B.

    3 10 2017 00:47

    3       0

    This video and the upcoming introduction of the Trade Ideas channel bridge insight and action, vision and reality. Well done, Real Vision! I fully expect that illuminating the art and science of expressing trading sentiments and ideas in actual portfolio positions is where Real Vision will truly fulfill its potential. The winter is coming and I can't wait ;)

  • LK

    Lisa K.

    3 10 2017 00:13

    26       0

    This video summarizes my feelings at this time, too. When it happens, it will be faster than expected, and then friends will say why didn't you warn us? Just like when I told friends to buy gold when it was below $400, then it goes to $1900 and they ask should I buy gold now? I'm incredulous, you didn't buy it under $400, you wanna buy now? Then it goes down to $1050, and they think they dodged the bullet. OK, whatever. I don't try to influence friends anymore, just myself. I think the same will be true this time too. Who knows what black swan will kick it off? Maybe China admitting it has 12,100 tons of gold in reserve, like it did today? Maybe a major insurance bankruptcy with the hurricane payouts. Maybe an insurance company failure due to fraud like Markoff hinted? Or a major state pension failure? The kickoff will be unexpected, but the results won't be. Thanks Raoul for summarizing these current thoughts.

  • EC

    Elisabeth C.

    2 10 2017 23:46

    3       0

    Enjoyed it very much. Yes it's a warning and that maybe nothing significant happens to 2018 time frame. I would Love to see an Interview with John Hussman something. Think it would be worth hearing his background and basis for bearish outlook and seems like seems like a guy worth hearing.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    2 10 2017 23:16

    4       1

    Three unanswered questions.
    A. What happens to the real value of cash?
    B. What happens to the value of real gold?
    C. Muni bond funds
    Thx RVTV
    Good thought provoking points

  • CA

    Christian A.

    2 10 2017 20:13

    2       0

    I think Marco is right. One has to remain open to a different outcome. Debt jubilee, like David Zervos propagates?!?

  • MH

    Marco H.

    2 10 2017 19:55

    15       1

    I am been hearing these very compelling cases against the current mania for a number of years now.

    And at the risk making a fool of my self I still have the idea something remains unseen, unrecognized. Because markets are moving higher, regardless the news. Trump election, Las Vegas, Catalonia elections. North Korea, tropical storms. The list seems endless. What ever the news: The stock market is moving up. Las Vegas shooting produces higher values for gun manufacturers. So something is not part of the puzzle.

    I know that this is a list of very smart people. But one thing remains unanswered for me. In todays market we are seeing more money floating around than ever. Central banks are pushing this in the current economy. This is hugely disproportional to the past events. With this money someone, somewhere is buying assets. Stocks, real estate, antiques, commodities, cars are just a few I can think of. No, no bonds because this is immediately a liability for someone else and for that reason should not be on the list of assets.

    This new norm in which this huge extra capital flow is playing a role is hardly part of the graphs. Yes, compared to 2008 todays peak is much higher. But so is the amount of capital. In the US market the amount of government debt is doubled between '08 and '17. Then maybe we should consider a S&P at twice the levels in '08 as the new norm.

    At one point everything will inflate, including wages and this will become the new norm. Sure, there will be shocks in the systems like the unwinding of the ETF favoured stocks and the rediscovery of the currently unfavored ones. The high P/E levels will slowly drop in relation to a slowly higher bond yield.

    We have seen plenty of examples where the government is stepping in to support the stockmarket.

    The loans taken on by the central banks will be inflated further until the economy will start again. But withe the very low interest rates this is not a problem. When they finally will be taken out of the system again our entire moneysystem be inflated to the extent that the current loans have become a much smaller liability.

    With current policies in place I hold the scenario above as very realistic. Unless we are returning again to a capitalistic society where the VIX is a genuine fear index and an occasional crash wields out the sick and disabled companies.

  • MN

    Mark N.

    2 10 2017 19:07

    3       7

    I feel like this was largely a rehash of older content, except for the section from Dorothee, but RVPub members are already familiar with this part too.

  • TS

    Tyler S.

    2 10 2017 18:07

    1       3

    buy what protection, everything protection.. I'll take 1mm contracts of everything protection and a side of fries if you have them made...

  • BK

    Brian K.

    2 10 2017 16:24

    3       1

    Was Dorothee Rainis on real vision ? I do not see any videos

  • JS

    Jon S.

    2 10 2017 16:04

    3       3

    sure. whatever. this thing is going higher.

  • ns

    niall s.

    2 10 2017 15:28

    13       0

    Liked it a lot , but did not like the fact that two different scales were used on the "Y" axis of the Consumer Confidence and Leading Indicator charts to make them "Visually" at least match up better with previous topping patterns.

    Hang on to your integrity , it takes years to build and can be lost in seconds.

  • FC

    FRED C.

    2 10 2017 15:12

    6       0

    good video terrific folks ....everyone says when rates rise.....i have to confess that no one has made a case for the central banks to raise interest rates...........on the contrary everyone agrees at the slightest provocation/ problem they will reduce, hold constant and buy more stocks (plunge protection team) ........so someone pls articulate the possible why rates go up more than half a point ....when we all know that "armegeddon" will ensue if they do..........to me this is the missing link in all the statements.............tks

  • TD

    Tom D.

    2 10 2017 15:11

    1       0

    Love RealVision!

  • RK

    Roger K.

    2 10 2017 14:31

    6       0

    Thanks a lot! The question is when it happens , where the money would go into ?

  • MT

    Mike T.

    2 10 2017 12:58

    8       0

    fantastic Raoul. Thanks a lot, great insight !

  • jS

    jurgen S.

    2 10 2017 11:14

    9       0

    Well done, couldnt agree more.
    As someone once said (escapes me who it was) better to be 6 months early than 6 minutes late.
    Good job RV!

  • JV

    Jason V.

    2 10 2017 11:02

    18       0

    Outstanding. Timely. Wise. RVTV at its finest.