The View Ahead – America

Featuring David Rosenberg, Jason Trennert, Lacy Hunt, Barry Bannister

In the first of a special four-part series for the New Year, we examine the key regions of the world, bringing together a group of experts to discuss the issues that matter for investors. Part one focuses on America and features David Rosenberg on the US economy and Jason Trennert on the impact of fiscal policy, while Lacy Hunt talks bonds and Barry Bannister looks at the US equity market. The View Ahead series continues over the coming days with specials on Asia, Europe and the emerging markets. David is the writer of the economic report, Breakfast with Dave: http://research.gluskinsheff.com

Published on
1 January, 2018
Topic
Fiscal Policy, Monetary policy, US Economy
Duration
34 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities
Rating
94

Comments

  • JS

    Jose S.

    17 1 2018 21:41

    0       0

    Utilities relative to SPX are already on a 27 yr low.

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    9 1 2018 19:13

    0       0

    Loved it. Excellent concise thought provoking views from four different quarters, with Lacy Hunt's views the most compelling, simply because his track record on American GDP, inflation, and Treasury bond yields has been so accurate for as long as I can remember! Thanks RV!

  • YZ

    Y Z.

    9 1 2018 13:45

    0       0

    Very high quality content! Thumb up!

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    6 1 2018 03:35

    1       2

    Here's the thing about the future. Every time you look at, it changes — because you looked at it — and that changes everything else.
    (Next)

  • CG

    Christine G.

    4 1 2018 08:10

    8       3

    Old tired analyses that inspire little confidence or reflect any creative vision - which is what you want in the midst of so much change. Get Jeff Snider to give another talk and to comment on the coming year.

    • ww

      will w.

      4 1 2018 13:13

      12       0

      Yes! Jeff - and Daniel Want, Mike Green, Chris Cole. And Jesse Felder and Luke Gromen are also among the top RV guests who have those most-thought-provoking insights into the depths of financial markets & their "plumbing". Jeff, Luke & Mark Yusko recently completed (end-Nov.) a 5-part series on Erik Townsend's Macrovoices podcast on the USD endgame. And that 'Endgame' series is itself a follow-up on Jeff's FABULOUS earlier Macrovoices series on the "Eurodollar". Both of those series of podcasts are most highly recommended; MV & RV founders are good friends.

  • ww

    will w.

    3 1 2018 17:13

    4       0

    About the "missing" transcript - & in a few recent cases, even the Download Audio link: I too was distressed to not see some of those links on some recently-posted videos. But I discovered that the missing items appeared on the presentation's main page a little while later (some of the xcripts seem to lag several days).

    Knowing that us RV viewers have repeatedly expressed the strong desire to reduce the lag times between recording & release of the presentations, I think most of us would prefer to get the videos a bit sooner, at the cost of a bit of delay releasing the audio & xcripts, instead of having to wait until all parts of the presentation release are finished?

  • TL

    Tom L.

    3 1 2018 13:14

    0       0

    Transcript please?

  • RJ

    Robert J.

    2 1 2018 20:14

    3       1

    This is a great format and please use it more often. Of course there is disagreement but the participants back up their opinion with relevant facts. Let the customer decide.

  • TH

    Thomas H.

    2 1 2018 19:52

    3       0

    I am struck how little anyone really knows what a Fed unwind will do to macroeconomics.

    • Jc

      Justin c.

      5 1 2018 14:32

      2       0

      Please inform us? I would agree with Ben Hunt that it is unknowable. The same logic applied to raising the fed funds to 1%, which was the first time a CB went from zero and crossed this threshold without backtracking. So they pulled that off amid the doomsayers. Sure they will break it eventually, but how many quarters away is this?

  • RI

    R I.

    2 1 2018 13:47

    9       2

    The last guy absolutely nailed it.

  • GS

    GUENTER S.

    2 1 2018 04:23

    6       0

    Disappointed that audio download not available.

  • CM

    Chris M.

    2 1 2018 02:36

    5       1

    David Rosenberg was really good. Agree with most of his comments. Shares thoughts on direction of economy, stimulus, etc. Looking forward to the rest of the video.

    • CM

      Chris M.

      2 1 2018 02:58

      2       0

      Rest of the video was excellent. Not sure why it is rating "down" thumbs. Worth watching. Different opinions are expressed.

    • RM

      Richard M.

      2 1 2018 16:43

      5       1

      Chris, I think the bulk of those down arrows were applied during the first few hours of the video release (expressing discontent over the truncated segment - not over the content).

      Note to RVTV: when you have a disruption to a video and you have to re-release it you should set the comments and counter (like/dislike) back to zero. Also put a Note in the video info section that you are doing this (resetting due to whatever the glitch was). This will make the like/dislikes much more realistic. Just say'in )

    • M.

      Milton ..

      3 1 2018 17:09

      5       0

      Great suggestion, Richard M. we love to get feedback. Hopefully we won’t experience any further issues with our videos, but if we do, this is something we will implement.

  • BT

    Brian T.

    2 1 2018 02:01

    12       0

    Both David and Jason seem to be conventional economists with non-controversial views and very little actionable advice - my hunch is they toe a line close to the market narrative so as to appear imminently reasonable to their institutional clients. However, Barry was the star in my view - his thoughts on higher interest rates (1Q at least) seems to line up with what we are seeing develop in the markets. I was a bit surprised that he was more excited about banks than commodities though.

    None of them discuss currency movements and the impact of same on the equity and bond markets - something I view as a big miss. If the dollar is resuming its decline - and I know this is probably THE question for 2018 and I must admit I can see both sides - then foreign capital will find the U.S. markets less attractive - potentially holding back or depressing equity prices.

    Various commodities appear to be coming to life - or have already come to life - and the market narrative does not appear to have acknowledged this yet. The recent turn in Natural Gas, the minor correction in Oil which now appears to be moving up again, the apparent near-term bottoming and now advancing move of gold, and the move up in copper (look at FCX move in the past few weeks!) all support the idea of a 1Q/2Q move up in commodities.

    The banks have already moved up quite a bit over the past 22 months - I find it hard to believe there is more than another 10-15% up there as a topping move.

    Good luck to all in 2018!

    • JC

      John C.

      5 1 2018 20:23

      2       0

      100% agree. David seems to be everywhere these days so nothing really learned from him, but not his fault just see him all the time. He's definitely geared more towards big picture portfolio analysis for bigger institutional clients, which is fine but not exactly all that helpful for the smaller guys.

      I still don't get the bank argument as the yield curve continues to flatten, BUT I think that Jason was more focused on the smaller financials that have been handcuffed by Dodd-Frank and other incredibly burdensome regulations. Still even KRE has really been strong...is lending going to really increase with an already over-indebted populace? I could see it given the US consumer's propensity to spend and the tax savings coming down the pike.

      I thought Jason's argument that we're only halfway through the business cycle is pretty good. He's spot on about the relief in terms of business confidence across the board in the US - Hillary would have just carried on more of Obama's seemingly random anti-business/capitalist programs and methods. Business owners large and small are just relieved that for at least a brief window they know they won't be regulated or taxed to death.

      Last guy was good, although I think Lacy's more correct in that we'll get a more flat yield curve....possibly inverted. 3 potential short-end rate hikes would do that I'd bet. And then equity investors would probably come back to Fixed Income a bit and that might precipitate a market drop, wash, rinse repeat.

      Good stuff from RV!

  • JO

    Jay O.

    2 1 2018 01:25

    2       0

    Can I get a transcript of Lacy Hunt's portion?

  • rm

    ray m.

    1 1 2018 23:41

    1       0

    Why is it the older the economist the more pessimistic the outlook?

    • CM

      Chris M.

      2 1 2018 01:55

      5       0

      Life experience!

  • DS

    David S.

    1 1 2018 20:40

    0       0

    The corporation tax cut of 2017 is important. The balance of the tax cut has more to do with the 2018 and 2020 elections. DLS

  • DB

    David B.

    1 1 2018 18:26

    1       0

    Please bear with us while some technical issues are being dealt with on this video.

  • DB

    David B.

    1 1 2018 18:26

    1       0

    Please bear with us while some technical issues are being dealt with on this video.

  • KM

    Kevin M.

    1 1 2018 16:33

    4       20

    WTF!!??

  • AB

    Aaron B.

    1 1 2018 12:40

    1       0

    Editing issues. :)

  • IC

    Ibrahim C.

    1 1 2018 12:33

    1       1

    This series seems to me exciting at the start until it stopped unexpectedly in its first 10 mins! Any clue how it goes ahead?

    • NA

      Nasser A.

      1 1 2018 18:16

      0       5

      you have to subscribe

  • HJ

    Hiran J.

    1 1 2018 12:31

    1       0

    what happen to the rest of the video?

  • DY

    Dmytro Y.

    1 1 2018 11:36

    0       0

    It appears video is cut at about 8 min at mid conversation of only first guest David Rosenserg

  • AT

    Andre T.

    1 1 2018 11:18

    0       0

    The video abruptly terminates mid-sentance.