The View Ahead – Europe

Featuring Marc Ostwald, Frederik Ducrozet, Sean Corrigan, Kit Juckes

Political divisions in Europe took center stage in 2017 as the economic recovery gained momentum. In the final part of the View Ahead series, we’ve scoured the continent to canvass the sharpest minds on the issues dominating investment thought on the continent now. Kit Juckes of Société Générale looks at foreign exchange, Frederik Ducrozet of Pictet takes the macro outlook, Sean Corrigan of Cantillion Consulting covers markets and Marc Ostwald of ADM presents the view on politics.

Published on
10 January, 2018
Topic
Politics, Monetary policy, Macro
Duration
32 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
99

Comments

  • AF

    Aidan F.

    13 2 2018 12:14

    0       0

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-09/ray-dalio-bridgewater-quadruples-shorts-on-european-union-stocks

  • AF

    Aidan F.

    25 1 2018 22:01

    1       0

    biggest problem Europe has is the infiltration of government into absolutely all enterprises. Its becoming Stalinist

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    12 1 2018 10:45

    1       0

    I've enjoyed this series more than I expected I would. Two things I found interesting was that the view ahead is limited to 2018 (maybe that was the limit of the remit), comments on the time period passed this were largely skated over. That's fine for a trading view over this year, but it would have been good to get an opinion for how some of the longer term outcomes in their models are likely to play out. Little or no mention of debt in any of the discussions. To me this is the elephant in the room longer term where most EU countries have significant debt levels that are getting worse. How does this affect thinking, as it doesn't seem to input here?

  • JC

    John C.

    11 1 2018 08:44

    3       0

    Interesting. Really liked the last two guys - spoke clearly and easy theses to understand. Solid (pro) Euro vs. Dollar arguments by Kit.

    Nobody knows where we're heading but the 10-year is at 2.6% as I type and like last year could be 'make or break' time. Are Gross and Gundlach right and is this nearing the end of the longer bond bull market, or is Raoul right and we have further to fall? I tend to think we'll have one more push down, and that on paper inflationary pressures won't surface this year, but who knows. Sure seems like any push toward 3% in the US ten year will impact the equity markets given we're already above SPX dividend returns, and if the FED tightens us into recession (yet again) that will be the nightmare scenario that Mr. Corrigan mentioned at the end. Lots to think about.

  • SG

    Sherman G.

    11 1 2018 01:01

    11       0

    I've watched all the macro presentations. Each country "expert" is generally convinced that "their country" is going to be a haven of growth in '18 after EM countries showed amazing growth in their equity indexes in '17. Trend following is the new paradigm with passive investing using ETFs its best illustration. Most of the speakers are sold out and are "selling their book." To me that spells a change in direction.

  • DP

    David P.

    10 1 2018 21:27

    12       0

    As a Frenchy currently being based in Sydney, Australia, i came back home for Christmas. Still no civil war, still nothing really done about the trade deficit and customer service keeps (slowly) getting better, coming probably from the lowest base in the world. Biggest story in my surrounding is surprisingly the total destruction of public education by politicians and cronies, not (at all) terrorism or the euro. Another large problem is that some sectors are experiencing skills shortages, when the unemployment is still at 9.4%. Always so surprised to see people in Anglo-Saxon medias, French medias, US/English/Aussie/French smart friends themselves each living in their own echo chamber about their point of view on French Economy and pointing out , for each group, at totally different pros and cons. There is something to learn there i guess, that all groups/tribes are an echo chamber, and it becomes more important than ever to listen to people you totally disagree with.

    • JC

      John C.

      11 1 2018 08:19

      12       1

      Prach on. As a US citizen it's appalling how much Americans are truly, absolutely in their own echo chamber. And the creeping socialism is amazing to see in supposedly the 'freest market economy' in the world.

      The data is clearly massaged to 'show growth/improvement' no matter what, so you have a situation whereby the powers that be in government play with the data constantly to show 'growth' & improvement. Meanwhile, we're incredibly overleveraged across the board (from the consumer to the city & state governments all the way up to the Federal level), good white-collar jobs are scarce and there's a continuing effort by the far left in the media, universities and now corporations (see Google) to set completely new values, break up the biological family, punish 'privieged' people (i.e. people that produce and are productive) and full-on Marxist ideas are running rampant.

      Prices back home have completely gone haywire despite the data and every time I go back it seems more and more expensive. Clearly for the average citizen things are pricier, but I guess now that almost 50% of Americans are on some sort of government support system it's just a question of printing more money and providing more handouts, right?

      Oh yeah, the political correctness is stultifying and cannot be good for productivity, worker morale (at least men's morale that is) and a sense of 'we're in this together'.

      In the former Soviet Union the common thought process was 'they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work', you can't trust anyone, being 'productive' is worthless bc you won't ever get rewarded by the state, and you need to work outside the system to make any money. Increasingly, unfortunately, that's what's going on in the US and Europe too, and none of this will end well.

      But in the meantime 2018 will probably look ok on paper, the market will continue to go up, 'unemployment' will be at all time lows (even though it's not), and all these 'on paper' facts and figures will look ok. But I think we al know that deep down there's too much debt, too many worthless politicians pandering to XYZ groups, too many handouts, and many in the West are too fat, dumb and happy for these countries to do anything but stagnate and eventually fray at the seams and have major crises once the pension schemes start breaking down.

      Indeed in the US at least we seem to be slipping further and further into some sort of strange

    • JC

      John C.

      11 1 2018 08:27

      6       0

      Q. is there an 'edit' function we can add to the comments section like you see in other websites? I constantly find myself wanting to correct spelling errors or leaving remnants of unfinished thoughts at the bottom of the comment I forgot about - would be so good to have say 5 minutes to correct any minor mishaps. Thx!!

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    10 1 2018 11:51

    15       1

    Another excellent thought provoking range of views. I have really enjoyed the this four part series which has provided invaluable food for thought on the major global markets. At the end of the day, glossy productions are nice to have, but the key will always be content, and this series on that score was right up there for my money!

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    10 1 2018 11:46

    5       0

    Excellent overview! Thanks a lot everyone!