Coronavirus Crashing the Party – Live with Emad Mostaque & Raoul Pal

Published on
February 4th, 2020
Duration
48 minutes

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Coronavirus Crashing the Party – Live with Emad Mostaque & Raoul Pal

Featuring Emad Mostaque

Published on: February 4th, 2020 • Duration: 48 minutes

In perhaps the most timely Real Vision Access segment to date, Emad Mostaque, CEO of Symmitree Ltd joins Raoul Pal to discuss the behavioral economics of Coronavirus. Together, they explore the virus' long incubation period, asymptomatic transmission and the concerning rate of infection while attempting to understand the social and economic impacts of a coordinated slowdown and or shutdown. The end of the party is almost always unexpected — could this be the catalyst that sends everyone home?

Comments

Transcript

  • WC
    Wilson C.
    6 February 2020 @ 04:17
    would be great if RV has access to CLSA Hong Kong to share a call they hosted with Dr. John Nicholls, University of HK, Pathology, who was a key member of the team that isolated SARS back in 2003. TLDR; he believes that the coronavirus is a bad form of a cold with majority of fatalities due to secondary health issues, and should not be compared to SARS or MERS. Fatality rate outside of Wuhan is more accurate (chaos on the ground, unreported cases, inaccurate date), to date < 1% outside Wuhan. Would love to get access to the full discussion.
    • ww
      will w.
      11 February 2020 @ 15:43
      someone posted it (or an xcript?) on Reddit Singapore - but the EXECRABLE Reddit "Moderators" there DELETED it! https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/f06uuc/clsa_conference_call_with_coronavirus_expert/ * * Those "Moderators" should be deleted from their positions of 'authority' (Censorship!) * * Fortunately, a google search for turned up an apparently pretty thorough transcript of the call, posted by 'Alex Krupp' on a site he apparently co-founded called FWD:Everyone: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert Tremendous kudos to Alex Krupp - and the 'FWD:Everyone' website! And Down w/ censorship - in S'pore as much as everywhere else.
  • JV
    James V.
    6 February 2020 @ 20:34
    Interesting interview, but I think you've confused your idioms. A Pollyanna is a blindly optimistic, not pessimistic, person. When you say "an availability cascade...that would have one accused of being pollyannas today become mainstream", I think you mean that those dismissed as being a Chicken Little today will become mainstream. N'est-ce pas?
    • EM
      Emad M.
      7 February 2020 @ 20:45
      Oui, absolutement
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    7 February 2020 @ 15:54
    Great conversation!
  • MR
    Michel R. | Real Vision
    5 February 2020 @ 20:53
    Hey Guys, here is the World Bank report Emad referenced: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/977141468158986545/pdf/474170WP0Evalu101PUBLIC10Box334133B.pdf Also, his note has been uploaded as well: https://www.realvision.com/access/issues/the-precautionary-principle-of-coronavirus-impact
    • GF
      Gordon F.
      5 February 2020 @ 22:47
      Thank you!
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    5 February 2020 @ 20:12
    Very well done, and very disturbing. Where (or when) are we going to receive the links to the documents mentioned? Based on reported numbers, the growth rate in new cases was increasing at about 33% per day from Jan 25-Feb 1. Since that time it has been growing at slightly less than 20% per day, although the growth percentage is not constant. As many have noted, I do not trust the numbers coming out of China, but I think a rapid breaking point will arrive if the cases outside of China start to rise sharply. Even a few cases in people who have not been known to have been exposed, and who have not been taking any steps to avoid contact with others, could cause a panic, while also providing a lot more data. As long as new cases only appear among people who have been in quarantine, I think the fear will remain muted. I hope fervently that it does remain well contained outside of China, but I would not give high odds on that case. Please post this on YouTube so that everyone can see it, and I can link it to others who are not on RV but need to see/hear it.
    • MR
      Michel R. | Real Vision
      5 February 2020 @ 20:54
      Check my comment above.