Flash Update – March 18, 2020

Published on
March 18th, 2020
Duration
8 minutes


Flash Update – March 18, 2020

Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: March 18th, 2020 • Duration: 8 minutes

Raoul wants to set the expectation that these markets are moving at the fastest pace he's ever seen, creating "one of the most monumental times in all of history," and that more than ever, investors must be so careful. He talks about closing his positions to take profits, what he sees as the next great risk-reward trade, and what to watch out for over the coming months in these "super, ultra dangerous" markets. Check out Raoul's March In Focus piece, which was released in tandem with this Flash Update and is complementary to this video: https://rvtv.io/2UfYcoS

Comments

  • MB
    Michael B.
    22 March 2020 @ 23:42
    Beyond UUP and related UUP calls, is there any way to play the short side of specific currencies like GBP without using Futures contracts?
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      23 March 2020 @ 01:33
      Invesco has EFTs for some of the currencies. You can buy puts on those. For example FXB, FXC, FXE, FXY.
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      24 March 2020 @ 14:38
      USDU is an ETF that is long the US dollar and is weighted heavily against KR and JP.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    23 March 2020 @ 13:26
    Raoul, US government just announced unlimited QE. Does your thesis of strong dollar in the short term still hold?
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      24 March 2020 @ 14:36
      I'm taking my lumps but Raoul is sticking with this trade and I'm sticking with him. This is from his Twitter feed today: Alex Martell @BAMartelly · 10h @RaoulGMI are you still max long dollars? Quote Tweet Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI · Mar 18 The Dollar and Bitcoin is all I got right now. Im adding to bitcoin and Im max long dollars (vs EUR,GBP, AUD, BRL, MXN, KRW, CNY, JPY). Good luck. This is not a drill. Show this thread Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI Replying to @BAMartelly Yes, absolutely. 4:16 AM · Mar 24, 2020
  • MB
    Matthew B.
    18 March 2020 @ 21:29
    The only think I don't like about Raoul's videos is his habit of saying "The reason being is . . .". Everything else 5*.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 23:53
      haha.. didn't realise
    • DD
      Derek D.
      24 March 2020 @ 02:19
      F that the worst verbal tick in finance right now is McCullough’s “again”, God bless him. I’m a very happy subscriber of his, but I wish I could shake his hand and beg him to stop!
  • MT
    Max T.
    23 March 2020 @ 17:08
    Just curious Raoul, after watching Julian's video today, what (or what levels) would make you change your position on GBP or Yen? Bitcoin I understand is a longer term trade.
  • CF
    Chris F.
    22 March 2020 @ 10:28
    Wonder what the time horizon for a strong dollar thesis is.. two to three months? Quarters?
  • JS
    Jim S.
    21 March 2020 @ 22:26
    Looking for thoughts on using GBTC for 401K/IRA exposure... I don't know any other way to get exposure to it in those accounts. Also with BTC, any feelings on whether we should be using cold storage right now or getting interest via BlockFi, maybe 50/50 split? Would any ETH exposure be prudent? Any and all opinions welcome.
  • SD
    S D.
    20 March 2020 @ 15:18
    How liquid is UUP?
    • JS
      Jim S.
      21 March 2020 @ 22:22
      I think it is the largest AUM of any of the $ ETFs, a lot of open interest on the options too.. more than USDU.
  • MJ
    Matthew J.
    21 March 2020 @ 15:46
    I'm curious as to your preference for either Put Options or short futures contracts on the recommended currencies. Is there still the same concern over the markets closing for us buying GBP, JPY and EUR put options? I assume this isn't a huge issue as the volatility you described for the HYG and SPX isn't an issue here? If options are a good play what time scale are we looking at for the expiry? July? I'm still working on choosing the most suitable strike prices too. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
  • KS
    Kenneth S.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:02
    This is maybe too soon but I can't help worrying about civil disruption. The empty streets and sudden quietness feels sinister like something unexpected is gestating. Raoul, you have incredibly long legs to step so easily from market to market and continent to continent. It takes a lot of scurrying about to follow you!
    • pw
      paul w.
      21 March 2020 @ 06:33
      I agree. Old Forbes article said "63% Of Americans Don't Have Enough Savings To Cover A $500 Emergency". Not being able to feed your family creates a challenge. I always found Ray Dalio's discussions about this risk pretty interesting
  • AE
    Anthony E.
    19 March 2020 @ 21:08
    I've read that Gov Intervention in the currency market is the biggest threat to this trade. Is this on your roadmap short term?
    • AE
      Anthony E.
      19 March 2020 @ 21:17
      For instance my GBP sell just turned around completely
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      19 March 2020 @ 21:22
      Correct, as today the Bank of England cut rates. The Pound went up on that towards 1.18 against the USD but now is back below 1.15
    • AE
      Anthony E.
      19 March 2020 @ 21:24
      Thanks for the info. So, we just have to hold through the fires?
    • SS
      Steve S.
      19 March 2020 @ 22:22
      a move against you like that from 1.15 to 1.18 is a lot if you've bought futures which uses a lot of leverage. That's why I got stopped out on USD/GBP trade along with USD/AUD USD/BRL, USD/CAD even though later in the day a lot of them reversed which was so frustrating, but you can't win them all. That's why it might be a good idea when making trade suggestions to put in ideal levels to enter the trade and stop loss etc.
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      20 March 2020 @ 07:33
      I always like to 'build up' a trade. So I start with a certain amount and keep adding once it goes the right way. If you're full in from the start and it goes against you in the beginning that can be very annoying indeed.
    • SM
      Sean M.
      21 March 2020 @ 02:30
      There are also micro currency futures /M6BM20 is what I've been using, 1/10th the size of the /6B so you can be a little more nimble if you want. I've also traded the micro on the Euro and Aussie but haven't seen any others with currencies.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    18 March 2020 @ 22:07
    I thought about that perhaps the easiest way to make this trade is to go Long US Dollar Futures ticker DXM0. You're essentially long USD vs EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD and SEK all in one trade. It is heavily weighted towards Euros though (over 55%) Currently trading at 101ish and looking for it to hit over 120 like it did in 2002. Any thoughts? @Raoul would greatly appreciate your insights on this along with the wonderful RV community.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 23:53
      Yup. Love it.
    • CG
      Colin G.
      19 March 2020 @ 03:21
      Are DX options viable?
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      19 March 2020 @ 21:18
      There are DXM0 options available but very little trade (what I've seen so far). I think I prefer UUP call options. DXM0 and UUP have the same components: Euro 57.60% Japanese Yen 13.60% British Pound 11.90% Canadian$ 9.10% Swedish Krona 4.20% Swiss Franc 3.60%
    • RK
      Robert K.
      20 March 2020 @ 13:03
      The question about "Are DX options viable?" Well, how about Futures Options?
  • FT
    Fabian T.
    20 March 2020 @ 11:19
    Raoul, on the USD trade: I also have it on since a while as I thought the GFC was also a good playbook of what moves are possible if the dollar strengthens. However, I begin to wonder what happens if the Coronavirus hits the US really brutally (relatively harder than others), which could be the case due to lack of testing, slow reaction etc. Do you think this should be part of the equation for the USD trade or is the USD shortage in the system and the forces that are at play still dominating in such a scenario ? Many thanks, Fabian
  • JC
    Joseph C.
    19 March 2020 @ 12:06
    Is it possible to get an ideal month and strike for UUP calls?
    • WM
      Will M.
      19 March 2020 @ 14:01
      Unfortunately the 28 and 29 calls have soared this morning......
    • SS
      Steve S.
      19 March 2020 @ 14:51
      28 Strike, June 19th Expiry. It doubled at open today but has fallen significantly again. I bought at 0.75. It went up to over 1.70 and is now around 0.86
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      19 March 2020 @ 21:27
      So, we are looking at a possible 10-20% rise in the UUP from here? Has there been given any target on this? Couldn't find it. Hope somebody can let me know. Tx!
    • SS
      Steve S.
      20 March 2020 @ 10:33
      @Daniel. If Dollar rips as Raoul predicts, UUP should be up much more than 20%. Like 35+ on UUP. If that happens my options on UUP should return 7-8x. UUP consists of the following: Euro - 57.60% Japanese Yen - 13.60% British Pound - 11.90% Canadian$ - 9.10% Swedish Krona - 4.20% Swiss Franc - 3.60%
  • DH
    Dean H.
    20 March 2020 @ 04:11
    Hi guys, I have been trying to trade UUP options now for a couple days. Keep getting told contract is not available. Is this a broker issue or anyone else been getting the same? Cheers, Dean
    • SH
      Simon H.
      20 March 2020 @ 08:35
      I had a similar problem. Called the broker and they sorted it.
  • MJ
    Matthew J.
    20 March 2020 @ 06:24
    How do you feel about BTC futures? My guess is the volatility BTC and potential for manipulation means the RR isn't worth it and just to stick with owning them personally?
  • JS
    J S.
    20 March 2020 @ 02:34
    Given massive governments and central banks (+Fed, rates, REPO, asset purchases CP&Notes, swap lines, etc) reactions, you think the window of vulnerability is closed? have their effort change your view? Seem some of the USD liquidity concerns are being quickly addressed. Thank you.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      20 March 2020 @ 03:57
      These are good questions @JS, hope the folks at RV can give us some guidance here.
  • DL
    Dominic L.
    19 March 2020 @ 21:33
    Raoul, would you mind saying why you prefer UUP over something like USDU?
    • NN
      Nathan N.
      19 March 2020 @ 23:30
      UUP much more liquid.
  • LG
    Luca G.
    19 March 2020 @ 21:59
    Raoul, what’s the best ewallet platform for a EU citizen in your opinion?
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    19 March 2020 @ 21:16
    Just wanted to add my appreciation for the RV team’s work.
  • MP
    Marc P.
    19 March 2020 @ 16:02
    Made the 3k subscription overnight on UUP!! Thanks Raoul
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 March 2020 @ 18:08
      Hell yeah!
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    19 March 2020 @ 16:28
    So swap lines comming and the dollar still moving up! Its sorta funny to see central banks cant control ANYTHING!
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    19 March 2020 @ 15:53
    Thanks. Last time the thesis was working spot on. But the Fed open Swap Lines with several countries. Can you explain the implications? I'm assuming the Dollar will keep neutral until the music stop?
  • SS
    Steve S.
    19 March 2020 @ 15:22
    Already got stopped out of USD vs GBP, USD vs BRL and USD vs AUD. Bad day at the office for me.
  • AS
    Amit S.
    19 March 2020 @ 14:58
    Two questions 1) What will make you change your strong US$ thesis? 2) Will the pegs break - HKD, AED and the likes?
  • JQ
    JACK Q.
    19 March 2020 @ 02:04
    Just putting out something interesting happening. Physical gold brokers in HK are all out of good to sell today People preparing the worst
    • WM
      Will M.
      19 March 2020 @ 13:59
      Funny how the paper price is falling isn't it?
  • SS
    Steve S.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:41
    @Raoul. If you was buying options on UUP, what strike and expiry date would you consider in order to get the largest move. As my trading account is in GBP, could I just play GBPUSD by being Short, rather than Long USDGBP?
    • SS
      Steve S.
      18 March 2020 @ 18:44
      June 19, 28 calls are still quite cheap at 0.76 or 29 at 0.50
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      18 March 2020 @ 19:36
      *NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE* but I bought the 6/19/2020 $28 strike this morning and holding. You could argue that shorter duration might be a better play if you think there will be a mad scramble for $s sooner rather than later and the Fed will be too slow to react, but think they will still eventually respond and devalue in short order.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      18 March 2020 @ 19:58
      @Max. Thanks. Yep I bought June 19th calls with 28 Strike for 0.75. I also shorted GBPUSD and EURUSD Futures.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      18 March 2020 @ 20:41
      Thank you Max ..... how can they devalue? Interest rates at Zero and they are printing $ bad out pf hell. Pls explain.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      18 March 2020 @ 23:37
      @Saad A. I'm not encouraging this, suggesting that it will happen, or downplaying potential consequences but I'm reminded of the famous Ben Bernanke quote from his 60 Minutes interview in 2009... "...we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It's much more akin to printing money than it is to borrowing." If they want to increase the amount they are printing and the will is there it is as easy to go 10x as adding a zero.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      19 March 2020 @ 09:09
      @Max .... clear and thank you!
    • WM
      Will M.
      19 March 2020 @ 13:51
      Yes fortune favors the fast.... I got into UUP before the market closed yesterday...great. However, those 28 and 29 June calls soared first thing and are now up to double the premium figures mentioned here.
  • QM
    Quinton M.
    19 March 2020 @ 12:55
    Raoul- what is your thought on euro$ here. I assume it’s moving backwards due to Libor going up with funding issues. When do you see it moving towards 100 or 99.8 which is my target. Thanks.
  • GO
    Grzegorz O.
    19 March 2020 @ 11:43
    I Keep my dry powder in GBP. Should I convert it to USD? Cheers.
  • JM
    Javier M.
    19 March 2020 @ 06:33
    If I want to take advantage of this environment in my 401K...and the only reasonable funds I believe are available (FGOVX & FRGXX) which is best to allocate to? I already played the bond scenario with VBMPX... I appreciate the guidance. Thank you!
    • JM
      Javier M.
      19 March 2020 @ 11:02
      To money market fund (FRGXX) or not- that is my question.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    19 March 2020 @ 06:09
    Really appreciate the updates. How about TLT, is this call game over or good reason to add more now? Or get out quickly? TLT 170 calls April 17
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 March 2020 @ 10:32
      Im not sure.
  • LT
    Luc T.
    19 March 2020 @ 09:29
    Hello Raoul, The game you were referring to is Whack-a-Mole I am so glad to be finally able to bring something helpful to the RV commentaries :)
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 March 2020 @ 10:31
      haha
  • KJ
    Kevin J.
    19 March 2020 @ 03:50
    Whack-A-Mole. That's the game you were thinking of, Raoul! On a more serious note, thank you and Julian for your consistent updates and for founding Real Vision. As an engineer in my mid-twenties, I was initially skeptical of spending $3k for RV Pro, but now I definitely think it's worth it. It's been such an education to listen to your frameworks and hear the logical progression backed by hard data. I wish I had gotten this in the economics and finance courses I took in college. I have never done any forex trading because I don't have a good grasp of the fundamental drivers of currencies. Do you know any good resources out there (books, websites, articles), that can give me a framework of what drives changes in currency values against each other? Every resource I've found on google has not been that informative. I want something meaty and rigorous like your reports. Thank you, Kevin
    • BT
      Benjamin T.
      19 March 2020 @ 09:52
      Would live the ressources to :)
  • GK
    GRIGORIOS K.
    19 March 2020 @ 06:19
    Raoul is UUP a good way to play the USD surge game?
    • RK
      Robert K.
      19 March 2020 @ 07:29
      Yes, this was commented before below or in the other 18 March report
  • AD
    Anthony D.
    19 March 2020 @ 02:03
    Thank you for all your work these past few weeks. What is your guess on the size of the move in the dollar ... on the order of 30%, 50%?
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      19 March 2020 @ 06:08
      Yes Raoul. Any idea in terms of target price for UUP or DX futures? Much appreciated
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:42
    Bonds closed? Hmmm. Inflation breakevens, Fed will follow BOJ on curve control. 30-year going to 50 bps once margin calls done? Actual question.
    • NR
      Nathan R.
      18 March 2020 @ 23:29
      Forgive belaboring the Bond question. I hear and can sympathize with “all the juice squeezed” outlook. My observation is that the Fed is a fairly unimaginative bunch and has repeated verbatim the same tools and strategies as in 2008. The results are similarly stillborn. They are creatures of habit (model). They will crush the curve just like Japan to defend “full faith and credit” to their dying breath. Ergo, Bond trade stays on or gets added to. I know I will be excoriated for saying this but I think long USD could be an extremely dangerous trade at this juncture. I say this as a huge believer in Santiago Capital’s Milkshake Theory. That belief notwithstanding, it behooves all global parties to devalue the dollar. These are politicians. They will take the most expedient and opaque road. A massive coordinated USD devaluation could literally come at any moment. It’s simply a question of an exogenous bazooka of unknown ferocity and duration. Understandably, Churchill’s dictum about Americans making the right decision after trying everything else still holds. The higher USD pain trade could run for awhile. To me, it’s simply too dangerous a trade when all price insensitive parties want the opposite.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      19 March 2020 @ 05:20
      You can’t change the reserve currency status overnight, no matter how many trading parties want this...
  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:50
    Is the transcript for this available?
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    18 March 2020 @ 20:32
    Thank you Raoul!!!
    • SA
      Scott A.
      19 March 2020 @ 01:27
      Thank you Raoul. It feels like I’m playing w Jordan secretly on my squad! I closed my HYG June 75 puts at 5.50 today. Bought them at 2.90 last Wednesday. RP is a LEGEND🙏🏻
  • JS
    Jim S.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:26
    Thanks for the update! Wondering what to do with my 529, only get 2 trades per year in that thing, rotated to bonds in early Feb so I’m left with either rotating back to equities or rotating to an interest bearing account and hope they give me a 3rd trade with all the volatility we’ve seen so that I can put it back to equities. Opinions/comments are much appreciated.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    19 March 2020 @ 00:43
    I'll join the choir and say thanks. I'm sure this update is timely as ever. You're on 🔥
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      19 March 2020 @ 00:52
      And FWIW, I've been a MI subscriber for 3 yrs now, and the education you've provided is priceless. I don't always agree with you, but you've taught me how to 'fish' and I can't thank you enough for that. You are truly making a difference in people's life. Sorry the burboun is talking here LOL
  • NN
    Nathan N.
    18 March 2020 @ 21:41
    Raoul, thanks for the update. Thoughts on GBTC as a way to play bitcoin?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 23:53
      Its now trading at a discount, so make sense.
    • WS
      Winslow S.
      19 March 2020 @ 00:43
      Does't look like it's at a discount: https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTC:US?sref=0n5XhnHr
  • RG
    Robert G.
    19 March 2020 @ 00:17
    Thanks a lot Raoul
  • gb
    garrett b.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:45
    @Raoul Thank you for the updates! We really appreciate them. You said you've closed all your positions and only have Bitcoin and Dollars. Do you have positions in gold? I've never traded Forex so looking into how to trade now. If anyone can point me in the right direction that would be great. Thank you and all stay safe!
    • KJ
      Karim J.
      18 March 2020 @ 19:09
      Same boat here. A MI member posted how to trade EDs a few months ago, really helped a lot of us. Hoping someone in our community can do the same with Forex.
    • SN
      SATISH N.
      18 March 2020 @ 22:30
      I'm able to get access to major currencies through my regular brokerage account (TD Ameritrade, IB, etc). But finding it hard to get access to forex options, and exotic currencies (Brazilian Real, etc.). Any pointers would be helpful. ETFs like UUP and EMB are simpler to use and probably gets you the same exposure. What are the downsides to using these instruments compared to directly trading forex?
    • BT
      Benjamin T.
      18 March 2020 @ 23:56
      Would love to know to :)
  • SA
    Scott A.
    18 March 2020 @ 20:37
    Whack-a-mole! I don’t understand. if the USD is the “big horror over there” why are we making a bullish call on it?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 23:54
      The dollar shortage is the biggest horror. Its the biggest structural flaw in the system.
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    18 March 2020 @ 17:53
    Raoul, I've closed out all my shorts during this video. Regardless where the market goes from here you helped me make 5 figures (ok low 6 figures as I didn't risk too much but hey!). Thanks for all your hard work and guidance. Much appreciated.
    • FK
      Firoze K.
      18 March 2020 @ 22:45
      Low 6 figures was a typo!
  • FO
    Frederic O.
    18 March 2020 @ 21:28
    Stellar stuff. Views on SEK/USD? It made a big move today, also the Norwegian krona
  • AA
    Andrew A.
    18 March 2020 @ 21:02
    Raoul, would you be kind enough to spell out "This game is all about intelligent risk-taking and I see an opportunity to be REALLY big in the dollar trade with less volatility and less headline risk. You can get good leverage in currency futures and option too". Specifically which option and futures trades would you recommend? Thanks so much for all you are doing for the retail investor. Andrew
    • DC
      Daniel C.
      18 March 2020 @ 21:16
      go long dollar futures. would seem the best way to go if you dont have clarity on the expiration and strike price with options
  • PC
    Paul C.
    18 March 2020 @ 20:56
    Thanks for your work, Raoul... Absolutely heroic.
  • PO
    Paul O.
    18 March 2020 @ 20:51
    Great update Raoul: I'm executing on your dollar thoughts now ☺️
  • WM
    Will M.
    18 March 2020 @ 17:39
    Thank you so much Rauo;. Your short recos have made me 500% which way covers my losses on gold stocks at the moment. I appreciate you taking the time out to keep us updated!!!!!!
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 March 2020 @ 20:37
      Sorry added together instead of averaging....... it was only 250% !!!
  • WT
    William T.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:34
    Raoul, would long dollar ETF's like UUP be a decent way to play this ? I'm unfamiliar with currency trades. Thank Much !
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 20:25
      Yup.
  • LY
    Lawrence Y.
    18 March 2020 @ 19:28
    Similar to a post below, my account is in CAD - does it make sense to convert a portion to USD? And then buy UUP (or UUP options)?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 20:25
      Yes
  • AT
    Alun T.
    18 March 2020 @ 19:47
    Raoul Pal....you fucking legend.
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    18 March 2020 @ 17:45
    Perhaps we need hourly updates...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 18:20
      Perhaps I need to keep my sanity ;-)
    • MM
      Maximiliano M.
      18 March 2020 @ 19:02
      piyama party @ little cayman
    • JL
      Jack L.
      18 March 2020 @ 19:03
      Take care of yourself first, Raoul. You've done so much for everyone already. Thank you.
    • KT
      Kai T.
      18 March 2020 @ 19:33
      Don't you have underlings? Delegate!
    • KT
      Kai T.
      18 March 2020 @ 19:34
      Thanks for Real Vision! I look forward to every update!
  • JU
    John U.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:48
    Mr. Pal Is it foolish to keep large sums of dollars in US money markets? Such as SPAXX..
  • SD
    S D.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:35
    I really appreciate these updates.
  • mp
    matthew p.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:20
    did Raoul say at the very end "buy dollars, wear diamonds"? Didnt quite catch it. Also I wanted to ask if there is any hope for biotech equities that will benefit directly from the virus to rally massively in the coming months? GILD, INO, MRNA?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 18:22
      Buy dollars, wear diamonds. I have no clue in biotech Im afraid..
    • JW
      Joel W.
      18 March 2020 @ 18:34
      Yes, that’s what he said. I had to listen twice.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:18
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-s-virus-plan-anticipates-18-month-pandemic-and-widespread-shortages/ar-BB11ktjA?ocid=msedgntp Us Government report predicts 18 month pandemic
    • OT
      Omar T.
      18 March 2020 @ 18:27
      If it drags on this much and is this bad, SPX will go to 1000
  • SS
    Steve S.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:07
    @Raoul. Which 1-2 currency pairs vs the USD offers the best risk/reward if getting into a position today? It seems like the large USD/GBP move has already been made hence why I am asking.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 18:20
      CHY, JPY, GBP, AUD, EUR, KRW, etc
  • Ev
    Emiel v.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:16
    Excuse me for this newbie question... Does this also mean closing the position with the HYG Puts? Since it seems that trade just started.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      18 March 2020 @ 18:19
      You do you. I will be back in that trade but I like the risk reward of dollars even more
  • PM
    Philip M.
    18 March 2020 @ 18:11
    Raoul, thank you once again. Very grateful for all this... have made a packet, and learnt so much... my head is exploding but a small price to pay.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    18 March 2020 @ 17:55
    Thanks Raoul for the Herculean efforts for keeping us in the loop.
  • SG
    Steve G.
    18 March 2020 @ 17:41
    can hedge funding issues in 1 tick put spreads ie. EDMO 99.125/99.00. positions like this, also, can work and offer hedges to the structural constraints/fault lines in the system.
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    18 March 2020 @ 17:40
    EXTRAORDINARY update, Raoul! Thank you for the clear and explicit "call to action" ... as well as explaining the rationale. Can't ask for anything more. KUDOS.
  • CH
    Charlie H.
    18 March 2020 @ 17:32
    Crazy day so far