Love the dollar hedged gold ETF (GDXW) mentioned by Julian in concept. Given the persuasive strong dollar argument put forth by MI and others ( Jeffery Snyder, etc) combined with a personal desire to continue to hold gold ( despite the pain of the last many years), it seems a wonderful hedged position available to “retail” like me. My concern and question to Julian or Raoul (or others here) is how concerned should a holder of GDXW be with it’s minuscule liquidity / daily volume as we may be approaching another liquidity crisis. Low liquidity ETFs have been highlighted as very risky products by MI as well as others for years. Great concept ETF which I have already bought into, but worry about flash crash or fund liquidation in a risk off liquidity crisis. I understand safely vaulted physical avoids this risk. Hate to hold this ETF .( in my 401K ) and lose what I would otherwise gain in physical hedge. Any and all cogent thoughts much appreciated. Love RV and MI. Keep up the awesome work! Mark

Thanks Guys really appreciate your views. I have a good understanding of what could play out for the next 12-18 months thanks to you guys. My question is around beyond this time (where should we look to invest over the next 18 months for the gains over the next 5-10 years? What market segments/geographic areas etc... From listening and reading RV, TT, and Macro Insiders the general areas I have so far are (which may be incorrect): - Gold - Uranium - India - China? - Currency - If in the future USD is weak then which currency will be stronger (what currency should we hold) - Population Ageing (but on average poor) should we stay clear of this segment or look to invest in assets that may benefit from this trend. I am a newbie so please excuse any errors in the above - but keen to learn. Cheers John

There is an interesting piece from David Kotok included in Steve Blumenthal’s On my Radar from this week. Proposes that long term rates are being held down due to purchases for defined benefit plans. The favorable tax position disappears on September 15. Interesting that the charts of both are wedges that converge in the next two months. We will see who is right Raoul or Julian. I think both are right but on different time frames. Short term spike, then down again.

Both of you have discussed the debt situation in Italy. If this debt situation becomes a major crisis and brings the Euro down creating a potential global economic crisis of sorts; wouldn't there be a global flow of capital into the dollar? Wouldn't that flow of capital bring US equity markets to new highs, especially the DOW??? Is this a potential scenario to be considered?? Thank you.

I agree with Julian, given the massive position in US asset by Japanese investors, will prevent the JPY from falling in a global bear markets. top 7 largest Jap insurers holds about $300billion in USD assets, whereas US investors hold virtually no assets abroad and have already repatriate the bulk of offshore cash. On the other hand despite all news favoring the USD (EU political concern, growth disappointment, trade war, yield differential), it hasn't been able to break 1.15. That tells me that USD is fundamentally weak and that there is a high chance of EUR resuming its bullish trend against broad negative consensus

Since the Fed has a dual mandate how can they stop raising rates if inflation picks up and unemployment rate declines. Isn't the real risk that the Fed hikes 1 to many times.

GLDW, sorry.

Great point raised by Julian towards the end about the unwinding of Chimerica arrangement, which contribute significantly to the sustainable deflation and unusual profit margin in the past two decade.

Great insights. My novice brain is struggling to understand how a major risk-off unwinding would results in a surge in the dollar..? I get that US investors will bring their dollars home, but surely just as many foreign investors will move funds back to their own countries. Notably JPY. DXY seems highly correlated with the markets currently.. Or is this a matter of timing..? (Sell-off in foreign markets first followed by sell-off in US)

Thanks guys. Completely get the argument that financial conditions need to tighten before the macro & market unwind can take place. But how much does the very recent Chinese monetary and fiscal loosening impact this narrative? Clearly brings a stronger USD into play whilst Fed maintains QT and rate rises, but prior interventions by Chinese authorities have tended to fuel global reflation. Which is likely to dominate in your view? Or maybe both will at some stage and simply a timing issue?