Insider talks – December 2017

Published on
December 7th, 2017
Duration
30 minutes

Insider talks – December 2017

Featuring

Published on: December 7th, 2017 • Duration: 30 minutes

Raoul and Julian dive deep into the new US Tax plan and what implications it has for the US dollar and other assets. Raoul outlines further developments in India that make him extremely positive on the macro story and shines more light on the opportunity in uranium. To finish off the conversation, both of them share expectations for the first few months of the new year and outline some trade set ups to be mindful of. Filmed on 4 Dec.

Comments

  • MN
    Marcus N.
    11 December 2017 @ 04:58
    Is there any way that a US MNC could construct an Hail Mary end-run around this by importing goods or commodities into the US instead of repatriating actual USD? Highest Value US Import Products Below are the 20 highest value import products delivered to American importers in 2016. Shown within brackets is the change in value for each imported product since 2009. Cars: US$173.3 billion (Up 110.8% from 2009 to 2016) Crude oil: $108.1 billion (Down -46.1%) Phone system devices including smartphones: $104.9 billion (Up 76.8%) Computers, optical readers: $77.7 billion (Up 43%) Medication mixes in dosage: $67.5 billion (Up 48.7%) Automobile parts/accessories: $66.6 billion (Up 122.8%) Processed petroleum oils: $41.2 billion (Down -24.6%) Integrated circuits/microassemblies: $30.8 billion (Up 86.3%) Trucks: $25.2 billion (Up 216.9%) Diamonds (unmounted/unset): $24.4 billion (Up 91.2%) Seats (excluding barber/dentist chairs): $24 billion (Up 114.6%) TV receivers/monitors/projectors: $23.4 billion (Down -30.2%) Miscellaneous furniture: $23.2 billion (Up 72.2%) Electro-medical equipment (e.g. xrays): $22.1 billion (Up 65.1%) Turbo-jets: $21.9 billion (Up 53.6%) Blood fractions (including antisera): $20.2 billion (Up 225%) Insulated wire/cable: $19.4 billion (Up 117.2%) Printing machinery: $17.3 billion (Down -6.5%) Aircraft parts: $16.8 billion (Up 86.6%) Gold (unwrought): $16.5 billion (Up 102.8%) What would happen if a company decide to break ground on a high-speed rail network in California or the NE corridor, but sourced the train sets from Asia and financed it all with overseas retained profits?
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      9 January 2018 @ 10:34
      with all these imports, what does the US manufacture these days? (with a laugh, but it is a serious question!)
  • BD
    Bryan D.
    18 December 2017 @ 22:54
    As the repatriation tax is a deemed repatriation why does the cash have to flow back to onshore US? A deemed repatriation makes sense so the government can get their revenue upfront regardless of where it is but after that the cash from what I understand does not need to flow back onshore though it is free to at anytime after the deemed repatriation.
  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    14 December 2017 @ 11:53
    Hi Raoul and Julian, could you please make written short memo with practical recommendations how retail investors can trade ideas that you discussed here or in future video talks? Thank you
  • TP
    Tom P.
    13 December 2017 @ 11:37
    Curious to hear which ETFs people prefer for Raoul’s India macro trade. Thanks in advance.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    8 December 2017 @ 16:02
    Raould and Julian kept the interactive format w/o moderator and this time at much better sound quality, so well done to the team. listening to Julian's argument on increasing yield (coupled with higher $ from Raoul), that sounds not very bullish for gold as CPI and PCE numbers are so lagging on inflation that market would fail to recognize true underlying real yield situation but extrapolate the real yields will shoot through the moon hence the easy correlation to sell gold for any algo? I do concurr with RP that gold will eventually catch up with the $, there may be more pain ahead in the short term (apart from first buy the dip post FOMC next WED after 8pm CET but probably lock in some of the profits towards YE or beginning of Jan). apologies for stupid Q as I am not FI geek, what it easiest to buy puts on German 10y Bund? tks a lot
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      12 December 2017 @ 11:33
      E.g. Interactive Brokers, Symbol for Bunds is GBL
  • cb
    carter b.
    8 December 2017 @ 21:07
    how do you find bund options on Bloomberg?
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      12 December 2017 @ 11:31
      GDBR10:IND
  • FL
    Frank L.
    11 December 2017 @ 02:36
    Julian - I have thought a lot about this 'strength in USD' idea that you have been writing about re the potential tax code changes that are likely happening. I appreciate the precision with which you described the difference between the USD translation effects and the offshore USD liquidity effects (which I assume has a less strong FX effect - please feel free to correct me if you think I am wrong here) of the repatriation provisions of proposed tax changes. My question relates to the mechanics of this repatriation provision. My understand is that this tax bill 'deems repatriated' foreign earnings and profits regardless of whether or not the offshore earnings and profits are actually brought back onshore, and that this is different than the repatriation provisions last time around (insofar as corporations got the benefit of reduced taxes ONLY IF funds were actually brought onshore). Do you think that this structural difference in the repatriation provisions this time around will make a big difference? It would seem to me there is no reason to assume that all or even most of the funds held overseas will be repatriated since the tax is paid regardless currency in which the funds are held and regardless of whether the funds are actually repatriated. Just trying to button up the dollar bull thesis in my head. Thank you in advance for any further thoughts.
  • DB
    Danny B.
    10 December 2017 @ 21:02
    Great discussion guys. Will be interesting to see 2018 play out for sure! Raoul, where can I get a copy of your poster? At a minimum pls post on Twitter so we can see your motivational props! Lol Thx
  • DG
    Don G.
    8 December 2017 @ 01:40
    First of all URA wow! Thanks for all the money Raoul! That more than paid for the subscription. So.... short gold or is this the time the dollar and gold rises together?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 December 2017 @ 13:16
      I think gold edges lower for a while until economic weakness finally appears and then gold will have tp price in QE and its off to the races, along with the dollar
    • DY
      Dmytro Y.
      8 December 2017 @ 13:58
      Hi Raoul, where do you see weakness in economy or US economy while ISM is strong, unemployment is low, job reports are good in US, etc. Thank you
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 December 2017 @ 20:35
      Dymtro, I am noticing weakness underneath in the Us economy, such as consumption which I recently wrote about. Currently, there is limited risk of weakness, but in macro we have to live in the future and assess the potential timings and possibilities..
  • IO
    Igor O.
    8 December 2017 @ 07:44
    Wondering how you see international trade de dollarization trend. Is it big enough to play a role?
    • DY
      Dmytro Y.
      8 December 2017 @ 13:59
      Hi Igor, Raoul earlier said on twitter to him de-dollarization is a minor thing. still small in a big scheme of things. Let's see if or what he may say now.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 December 2017 @ 20:34
      Hi...Yes, I dont see it as a major trend change yet but overtime it will likely grow and become a larger feature. That would be much more likely to happen if the dollar was much stronger t force other outcomes. Right now, it really isn't that necessary with oil around $60 and other raw materials well off their lows.
  • RM
    R M.
    8 December 2017 @ 01:38
    Gents: Confused why the Nasdaq would take the biggest hit on a rate rise as the top 10 cash rich companies are all in the Nasdaq and will be bringing the cash home....why wouldn’t the companies most in debt (esp junk debt) take the biggest hit? Julien or Raoul, please advise, seemed like contradictory advice. Thank you, agree this was an interesting talk.
    • JL
      J L.
      8 December 2017 @ 11:22
      Was thinking exactly the same thing as most people I know think of tech as growth stocks and utilities as safer and more bond-like. Perhaps in an inflationary unwind of search-for-yield the relative earnings of tech stocks vs UST suffer most as demand for their products is more elastic than for energy / food etc? Would be great if the someone smart could elaborate. Good video
    • AP
      Alfonso P.
      10 December 2017 @ 15:59
      Valuations perhaps?
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    8 December 2017 @ 23:31
    Outstanding Gents. Thanks. Really enjoyed the Bitcoin-India volatile hold joke and laughed out loud at India's target of full vehicle electrification by 2030. I subscribe to Chris MacIntosh's service so nuff said. :-) This has been your best presentation to date in terms of both outlook and trade ideas/preparation.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    8 December 2017 @ 09:48
    Julian - US banks are suggested as play on rate-rises; what about European Banks? They should benefit from rate rises too, no? There are still some 5year options on European Banks that offer great asymmetry to the upside with a fixed "stop-loss" (of the option premium)
  • MD
    Michael D.
    7 December 2017 @ 21:40
    Another excellent clip. BTW, looks like EEM just broke 45.40 to the downside. Plan to play this with EUM, but would love to hear your thoughts, Julian, on EEV risk/reward. In a downtrend, EEV would be nasty, but in an uptrend like we're expecting is there a decent potential to juice earnings? Best.
  • NH
    Neil H.
    7 December 2017 @ 20:58
    best video you have done so far this year. very thought provoking as well as actionable.