Insider Talks – December 2018

Published on
December 7th, 2018
Duration
34 minutes

Insider Talks – December 2018

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: December 7th, 2018 • Duration: 34 minutes

Raoul and Julian both see flashing warning signs in corporate credit, they discuss the U.S-China 90 day "cease fire", and debate inflation and the FED. Filmed on 3rd of December.

Comments

  • JM
    Jay M.
    31 December 2018 @ 08:06
    Did I hear this correctly that Raoul is expecting a US recession by Q1 2019? 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the definition of a recession. So a) impossible to call one in Q1 and b) his own PMI based model isn‘t even close to that yet. Very confusing comment to me. Thank you for your work in 2018 guys! Especially sharing some of your clients‘ views I find very value adding. Volatility is back: let‘s make some money!!
  • VD
    Viknesh D.
    26 December 2018 @ 08:25
    I'm convinced more than ever that Julian is right - I would think inflation is set to take place middle of January 2019 with a possible Gold Price peak during the middle of January as well.
  • VD
    Viknesh D.
    10 December 2018 @ 00:11
    I love Raoul and Pal’s videos. Though I must say, I am convinced Julian is right. I think there will be some inflationary pressures mid January to potentially end of Q1 and the cycle is extended.
    • IH
      Iain H.
      10 December 2018 @ 12:09
      I don't see it. Unless we see a serious raise in salaries and wages
    • PF
      P F.
      10 December 2018 @ 20:32
      Higher rates at this point will put more stress on companies with increased debt load and weak cash flow. Some oil & gas service companies are very vulnerable at this point
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      11 December 2018 @ 21:44
      Iain...just look at the NFIB survey today. Compensation plans were the highest since 1991. PS this series is a decent proxy for Average Hourly Earnings and leads by 18 months
    • DM
      Davis M.
      18 December 2018 @ 18:26
      In my small town/state, there seems to be more stores WITH help wanted signs than ones without. I think wages have to go up.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    14 December 2018 @ 11:08
    Could we please set up macro insiders with an email alert when Julian or Raoul post a new macro piece. Itd be nice to get an email alert instead of having us check in daily to make sure we don't miss anything.
    • SS
      Stephen S.
      15 December 2018 @ 22:08
      Great suggestion!
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      18 December 2018 @ 11:38
      Hey folks - I noticed this comment and helped Miguel by getting him back on the mailing list. Now individualized notifications is what we're aiming for so this is coming in the future.
  • DD
    Donal D.
    14 December 2018 @ 01:58
    I'd just like to take this opportunity to thank Julian and Raoul for taking the time to read and in many cases answer the comments that are made on their videos and reports. This is very much appreciated and certainly goes above and beyond what I was expecting from this service. Thanks again !!
  • DD
    Donal D.
    10 December 2018 @ 08:33
    In line with the various comments on the risks associated with high yield/junk bonds and the scale of the market what do people think of the taking out Put options on the bigger name players like SJNK,JNK,HYG,SHYG etc. On a YTD basis these ETF's are only down between 4% to 6% and you can buy June 2019 PUT options that are just below current prices for around a 2-4% premium. Appreciate any inputs
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      11 December 2018 @ 21:41
      Credit really worries me but its a tough trade because everyone appears to be short the hedges like HYG etc already. Personally, I'm watching the spread between AAA-BAA and if that starts to widen I'd just sell more equities.
    • DD
      Donal D.
      12 December 2018 @ 08:06
      Thanks Julian appreciate the input. No point jumping into a crowded trade.
  • VG
    Vivek G.
    10 December 2018 @ 13:33
    Julian / Raoul - a bit tangential but appreciate any views on Japanese Yen Vs USD. Both of you have mentioned long dollar and weak/further weakness in EM but no mention of JPY. Regards
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      11 December 2018 @ 21:40
      Hi Vivek I tweeted you a reply. But essentially USDJPY should be lower ie Yen strong given the broad risk-off environment but its not. I think one explanation is that Japanese banks are very short dollars and with the cost of year end funding rising they have been covering exposure via the spot market ie buying USD vs rolling their funding in swaps.
    • VG
      Vivek G.
      12 December 2018 @ 07:15
      Thanks Julian
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    7 December 2018 @ 12:08
    Julian you talk about one more push in inflation data but Raoul's point is noted especially now with yields really starting to roll over. My question to you Julian, do you mean your more worried about wage inflation in to next year when talking about inflationary pressures. If thats the case it makes total sense as wage inflation is a late cycle metric and I could see your scenario pan out where wage inflation keeps the fed hawkish in to the fall? Just want clarity on what you mean by inflation, wage inflation makes total sense but headline inflation looks to have topped.
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      7 December 2018 @ 12:08
      *TYPO, mean keeps the fed hawkish in to the spring of 2019
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      12 December 2018 @ 00:03
      Hi Miguel Headline has definitively peaked/ However, I do see some latent core inflation being driven by cost push PPI in Q1. But the main pressure comes from wages and as you say.
  • BC
    Brent C.
    7 December 2018 @ 15:16
    Julian, IEI is the 3-7 year treasury. This is what I plan on coupling a "psuedo steepener" (as you called it) with. However, currently it's massively overbought on a daily. The weekly uptrend from oct lows comes in just below 119. The weekly downtrend breakout from 9/17 highs is around 118.50. I'm hoping to see those prices into year end to move with the first half of the steepener (IEI). I am waiting on MORT (or similar) until it's clear they can no longer hike. Current view is end of Q1 as you state. Julian and Raoul, thanks for all of the help this year! Cheers to 2019!
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      11 December 2018 @ 23:58
      Brent appreciate the feedback and don't disagree in the short term!
  • VG
    Vivek G.
    7 December 2018 @ 16:03
    Julian - you mentioned a ETF for 3-5 years in your piece. Appreciate the name of the ETF. Thanks Best
    • RA
      Robert A.
      7 December 2018 @ 17:52
      Vivek, I am sort of in Julian’s camp and can’t pull the trigger on Raoul’s TLT. There was a good RV piece that recommended the IEF (5-7 year T’s) @ 100 with a target of 110–I opted to buy the Vanguard VGIT (3-5 year T notes and a low fee of 7 bps). Hope this helps.
    • AM
      A M.
      8 December 2018 @ 20:13
      Ishares 1-3 year ETF Reuters code SHY.O
    • JK
      James K.
      9 December 2018 @ 23:53
      Short duration - Bond ETFs SHY 1-3 yr IEI 3-7 yr IEF. 7-10 yr FYI run a high volume, high-end real estate appraisals biz covering SF thru SValley....your work helps me from investments to predictive appraisal work... All the best to you guys and staff at RV....have a great Holiday season ...Thx. Real Vision = Addiction
    • DB
      Doug B.
      11 December 2018 @ 23:12
      What about playing this with STPP?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      11 December 2018 @ 23:57
      Vivek James answered your Q its IEI....thanks James
  • SR
    Steve R.
    10 December 2018 @ 06:01
    GS have just come out and said they think the chance of a rate hike in March is now less than 50%. Capitulation in the face of the tide of data indicating a slowdown?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      11 December 2018 @ 21:43
      I think those odds are fair. But ultimately it depends on stocks. If they rebound (not my base case) the odds will rise the Fed will hike in March
  • TH
    Tarek H.
    10 December 2018 @ 16:57
    tx H2 O
  • TH
    Tarek H.
    10 December 2018 @ 13:06
    Can you please list the name of the book Raoul mentioned by author Neil...something
    • HO
      H2 O.
      10 December 2018 @ 14:00
      Niel Howe. The Fourth Turning, and Generations are excellent reads. He would be a great RV interview.
  • WB
    Wesley B.
    9 December 2018 @ 17:16
    Relief rally? Rally lasted about 30 minutes.
  • PF
    P F.
    9 December 2018 @ 03:05
    I love these discussions specially when I can see different opinions on the same subject. Great work guys! I am already long in treasury bonds and I don’t mind being early because I see yields dropping far too quickly for me to be able to time this trade and capture full value. Risk reward is worth it.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    8 December 2018 @ 18:12
    Great work, gents! Your perspectives on the markets have been very helpful, and made us money this year. Thank you both. I wish to add some clarification on Raoul's comment on size of US junk bonds. Based on a Bloomberg article dated July 10, 2018, high yield and leveraged loans were each $1.2 trillion, for a total of $2.43 trillion. Within investment grade, just over half was BBB at $2.56, trillion, with the rest at $2.55 trillion, for total IG outstanding of $5.11 trillion. So of the total $7.54 trillion market, 33.8% is A-AAA, another 34.0% is BBB, and the remaining 32.2% is HY and leveraged loans. So, the junk market is large, and over half of the IG market is at the bottom tier of the quality spectrum, which could get slammed in a crisis. Raoul's concern is very well founded. Here is the link to the article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-10/corporate-bonds-are-getting-junkier
    • HO
      H2 O.
      8 December 2018 @ 18:18
      I looked at this recently in terms of maturities in 2019, and the proportion of junk maturities to all rated bonds next year is just over 40%, which is double where it was in 2016. Low investment grade downgrades are one risk, and outright junk defaults seem to be another, especially with crude < 60.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 December 2018 @ 18:25
      Thanks for this! This is why I love the Real Vision / MI community..
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      9 December 2018 @ 00:51
      Thanks for the insight Tamara, great info!
  • HO
    H2 O.
    8 December 2018 @ 18:01
    Thanks gentlemen for another great discussion. Quick question on seasonality of liquidity tightness. It looks like there is substantial USD liquidity tightness in euroland right now, but really it is liquidity for EVERYTHING because of end of year balance sheet ops. Specially for the dollar, if USD liquidity in particular was super tight (outside of seasonal effects) then cross currency basis indicators would be much worse then they are. What are the chances that total liquidity conditions ease significantly in January? Looking ahead to much weaker USD debt issuance across the globe for next year, and the pricing of recent EM USD bond issuance, doesn’t seem like there is much support for the structural dollar shortage narrative.
  • SD
    S D.
    8 December 2018 @ 16:41
    Corbyn? It's Diane Abbot, Julian, Diane Abbott.......
  • WE
    William E.
    8 December 2018 @ 14:40
    Julian - See you in Vancouver & you and yours have a great Christmas! Larry
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    8 December 2018 @ 03:40
    Merry Christmas to both of you gents, you’ve done amazing work this far. Bring on 2019! Quick q, why are 10yrs going so hard at the moment (rallying)? If we’re looking for a bear steepener/move down on short end of the curve, is taking some profits on the 10 years a good idea or there’s small(er) risk of a move back up in yields due to recession risks and we hold tight?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 December 2018 @ 11:14
      I just want to be long every single part of the curve but over time the curve will bull steepen.
  • EL
    Edward L.
    7 December 2018 @ 21:09
    Really like the service and the discussions but Julian, please stop cutting Raoul off. Best point was GE to junk status. In my judgement the discussion today was not very coherent and I would find it hard to enumerate succinct observations .Nevertheless I have learned much from both of you over the past year and wish you the best of health and happiness in the new year.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 December 2018 @ 11:13
      Thanks so much.
  • JG
    John G.
    7 December 2018 @ 19:24
    I just want to thank Raoul and Julian for another year of helpful information and insightful thoughts that I have used to develop my own investment strategies. I am really looking forward to 2019 because I think we will see multiple opportunities to make money on the short and long side of various markets. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to both of you and everyone at RealVision!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 December 2018 @ 11:12
      Thanks!
  • SR
    Steve R.
    7 December 2018 @ 23:41
    I have to say your bond call Raoul has (thus far) been absolutely spot on! It's certainly made a big difference to my year end portfolio return - likely nudging +30% by the end of 2018. Great work guys - looking forward to another very profitable 2019! Keep up the great work. Merry Christmas to everyone at RV. Cheers!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 December 2018 @ 11:11
      That’s great to hear! Well done!
  • JC
    Justin C.
    7 December 2018 @ 06:13
    Worth every penny guys. These discussions always help me sort recent events into a cogent framework. Raoul's comment re: GE's effect on the junk bond market is particularly thought provoking -credit events are brewing and the equity markets are starting to process that. I'm not even sure a relief rally is in the cards for the rest of this month, but even so I am strongly bearish for 2019.
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      7 December 2018 @ 07:59
      No relief rally with Huawei CFO going for court hearing today.....
    • RM
      R M.
      7 December 2018 @ 19:12
      Appears this was recorded before Huawei, which is a big deal. May not get much if any of a bounce.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    7 December 2018 @ 06:51
    Excellent, as always. I appreciate the slightly different viewpoints.