Insider talks – February 2018

Published on
February 7th, 2018
Duration
45 minutes

Insider talks – February 2018

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: February 7th, 2018 • Duration: 45 minutes

In this edition of Insider Talks, Raoul and Julian change gears and turn their attention to questions from subscribers. Exploring what the future holds for the US dollar, changes in the oil industry, real estate, overall process, and even answering a few personal questions as well. Filmed on 26 Jan, 2018.

Comments

  • TW
    Timothy W.
    12 February 2019 @ 16:42
    Really dig this format to get a handle on both of your thought-processes.
  • lD
    lance D.
    22 July 2018 @ 20:09
    more often please
  • JK
    Jim K.
    8 April 2018 @ 17:04
    Raoul/ Julian just got around to listening to this and thought the format was very interesting and think it is worth doing such a format maybe every 3-4 months. Thank you both.
  • cd
    chris d.
    5 March 2018 @ 16:53
    Isn't inheritance starting to kick in? millennial and the generation just before will be starting to inherit property.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    8 February 2018 @ 03:14
    Well Julien nailed it. Tightening from the bond market. Wage growth finally came, and the data was "too good". So has good become bad now? Also right after that Julien mentioned how the Fed looks behind the curve, and CERTAINLY that's how the jobs report was interpreted. And what happens if suddenly everyone who thought the Fed was going to back off, while the ECB and even the BoJ were going to tighten, realizes they've got it wrong? Europe just peaked, while the US has more room to run, and from here we get POLICY DIVERGENCES 2.0? Borne out of global divergences? On the back of massive consensus re: "synchronized global growth"? Do we get another rollover in reflation here though? Everyone appears positioned for reflation.
    • DD
      Derek D.
      8 February 2018 @ 03:15
      Goodness, here I am spelling his name wrong when it's right here in front of me. One of my major peeves. My apologies Julian.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      8 February 2018 @ 19:51
      Hi Derek ...in terms of reflation trade clearly a big dip in stocks will dent the growth/inflation picture. But question is then what? Do we simply roll back into disinflation/deflation? Personally a doubt it. Rather I think we once again see a policy response some in the form of delayed monetary tightening but significantly accelerative fiscal spending. As a result, yes the reflation trade will dip but it won't die and in fact will reemerge strong than ever. So you sell bonds on any bounce.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      22 February 2018 @ 01:09
      Thanks Derek. Re Reflation Q. At some point as bond yields rise it will trigger a stock crash (we could be on the cusp now), oil will fall and I believe we will se a final but sharp spike in the $ etc. That will naturally trigger a dip in the reflation trade. BUT I do not believe it will send inflation or bond yields back to the lows. So in that sense it is a two steps forward one step back process.
    • DD
      Derek D.
      26 February 2018 @ 20:06
      Makes a ton of sense to me Julian. Thanks for the replies. It also now appears that the US might not have as much GDP runway as before, based on what I'm reading anyway. Previously it looked to me like everyone was bulled up on European growth when it was the US that has trend acceleration. But now it appears the US, while not slowing quite as soon as Europe, won't be far behind, and Europe's slowdown might only be mid-cycle. My brain is scrambled re: forex on this one. I'd sense we need much shakier ground globally to get that destructive dollar rally, but maybe positioning is so dollar short, and so long global growth, that only a sneeze will shake it.
  • GJ
    Gareth J.
    24 February 2018 @ 23:33
    Personally thought the format and content was great.
  • JB
    James B.
    22 February 2018 @ 19:35
    Enjoyed the format for sure. One comment - the continuing bearish tilt on oil frustrates me (I work in oil) and doesn't feel like a properly researched view. Sure US production is indeed rising quickly (100kb/d per month growth) and drilling activity globally is picking up, but this misses the reality that global oil production has natural declines in production of 4-5% annually (call it 4-5mb/d) and we still have global demand growth of 1.5mb/d p.a. right now... all in the world is going to end up very lacking in oil capacity. I think this subject really needs more time on it as oil could be set to go a lot lot higher - the market wouldn't have falling stocks and a backwardated structure already otherwise.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    10 February 2018 @ 15:13
    Big disappointment. The equity markets are selling off hard, and there is no discussion of that event. How can you not address the topic that dominates financial news? The main reason I signed up for this product is to get timely insights on what is happening. Instead, they return to the dollar once again, even though they seem to have no conviction about its future direction. Sorry to say it, but bad job guys.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      11 February 2018 @ 10:39
      I think it would help if they closed the window on recording to publishing. Not as easy as it sounds as they have a schedule to work towards for posting and also their own personal schedules for recording. Understand the complaint but it is a tricky one to resolve by think it could be improved somewhat.
    • DB
      David B.
      12 February 2018 @ 17:32
      Agree. Pretty much a wasted $3000 for this subscription. Very few actionable ideas and 2 have blown up: US $ and Oil. Why would anyone think we'd pay $3000 to learn about ETFs, including leveraged ones? You can "google" this for free.
    • GL
      G L.
      18 February 2018 @ 13:09
      JB actually mentioned in previous 2017 Insider Talks that he thought Q1 would could see a major correction and this has materialized - albeit perhaps stopping short in retrospect. I think anyone analyzing market trends has to read between the lines and use macro theses expressed here, and elsewhere, to augment one's own investment framework - but never to drive it. It's a lot of detective work and hearing an evolution of the macro thought process from other experienced market participants is a valuable component. Overall, I still find the MI offering worth it (including the written content).
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      22 February 2018 @ 01:01
      Tamara please see comments to Brian B above
  • bb
    brian b.
    18 February 2018 @ 12:07
    too long, too much well if this then that but if not then something else. almost everybody says, fed will raise rates, bond yields will go up, inflation is rising, so then big sell off in stocks, which re way overvalued, but then usually this drives bond yields back down. so what short bonds till sell off and then go long real quickly? long stocks till sell off and then short? how exactly to play........
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      22 February 2018 @ 00:59
      Brian there are lots of moving parts. But I've been stressing how bonds are the KEY and we are at some massive levels especially in 30 yr US (please look at the charts we have sent to you). You should remain short bonds and sell ANY significant bounce (we saw the low in 2016). In equities the current market rebound looks too quick (you always buy dips) but because of bonds this time is different. So if recent bond weakness continues I'd look to sell here. FYI My target for the S&P is 2200.
  • FM
    Fraser M.
    20 February 2018 @ 07:51
    Yes - like the format!
  • JM
    James M.
    13 February 2018 @ 21:34
    Ok I think the most important thing I have learnt from this subscription after 6 months is that the premium you pay for access too money managers like these 2 guys is insightful and valuable but probably not cost effective for the average retail punter watching these videos. Of Course most people understand that these guys just like everyone else really have no idea where these "markets" go if we can call them that as I think we would all agree they are not free markets or have ever been in all honesty, or likely to be but thats another conversation. So yes as you can see by the fanbase comments the majority of subscribers like what these guys have done with this product in RVTV, Think Tank etc. But the question I ask myself is, do I get much more value in paying for the premium MI than just having standard RVTV and TT. My answer is No ultimately. I like these fellas, yes I enjoy listening to them and yes I find there educational content worth while. But at the end of the day £1700 to a retail punter is a lot. Relatively its cheap we all understand to what the industry pays for these highly experienced guys but that does not make it cost effective for the retail punter. So the answer to me is simple these guys need to be compensated for their time or they won't do it, and I assume the collective retail base cumulatively is worth their while financially. So they need to pursue volume and reduce their cost, otherwise I think the retail punters will leave in their droves. Mainly because IMO the retail punter hopes understandably that these guys experience will make them money and increase their knowledge which I am certain over time it will. But we need that exact variable ie Time and hence a reduced price for all us lil guys to benefit from the pros experience, and too me £1700 a pop ain't gonna let us achieve that time. Sorry for shit punctuation never spent much time in school. Cheers to the people at RVTV, overall I think the vast majority of subscribers feel its hands down the best financial product out there and are grateful for it. Thanks.
    • WD
      Wim D.
      14 February 2018 @ 10:05
      Fully agree - i am think over switching to RTV after my sub ends in august.
    • md
      mike d.
      15 February 2018 @ 16:46
      I started with the real tv an thought it was worth the money and I am learning a lot. Because of the hype of about macro insiders I subscribed. I honestly feel like I got robbed, I know much of it is me, but feel like I paid 2 grand to listen to a couple guys chit chat. NOT WORTH THE MONEY !!
    • bb
      brian b.
      18 February 2018 @ 10:53
      i agree its costly and so far not a lot of actionable trades and no timeline for them, some have stops to input but others could be a projected hold time of years (inda, ura for ex.). some tracking of trades they recommended would be good, and so far a bunch of losers already. got hit hard w oil short and inda and ura not doing well as of now either
  • CL
    Chris L.
    13 February 2018 @ 19:36
    Love the contrast in the work spaces of these guys! Great video but we definitely need more timely videos now the whole world has changed.
  • dw
    dale w.
    12 February 2018 @ 20:22
    Gentlemen, while I agree with some of the other comments that given the recent vol. and events an update would be nice. I also realize you have both lives to lead and clients that pay to be at the front of the line. I do suspect and hope though that we Macro Insider clients aggregate to a decent client size. With regard to content, I think given their seemingly opposing views, it would be interesting to hear Julien and Jeff Snider chat it out. Thanks for all you guys do.
  • MT
    Michael T.
    7 February 2018 @ 16:21
    Hi Raoul, could you please briefly comment on the Eurodollar play you proposed last year? Has your view changed? Thanks
    • IO
      Igor O.
      7 February 2018 @ 18:35
      I'd like to know too. But if rereading original piece it's all there. There will be no expectation of lower rates without market trending down or stalling sideways. So, I guess we just wait and see if yesterday was a top or we carry on higher happily. I might be wrong though.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      8 February 2018 @ 19:54
      If you think that we are on the cusp of nasty drop in stocks. Now is actually the time to look at Raoul's ED trade.
    • JL
      J L.
      9 February 2018 @ 17:49
      In that case are you considering putting on a steepener? Or rather wait until we see what stocks do and then decide whether to short fixed income or go long ED.. thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 February 2018 @ 10:13
      The trade was long term and very cheap to avoid the initial sell off. Im waiting to look for a moment to add to the trade. I think rates are near their peak and the yield curve steeping is telling us that.
    • MT
      Michael T.
      12 February 2018 @ 10:01
      Thanks for your input Raoul & Julian.
  • ap
    andrew p.
    11 February 2018 @ 11:03
    Seen better gents......the recent volatility required a update
    • JM
      John M.
      12 February 2018 @ 00:34
      I think so. I would have appreciated a few insights or just opinions about recent events and what we might expect in the days/weeks ahead.
  • RI
    R I.
    7 February 2018 @ 14:46
    Taped on 1/26?! Can't believe this segment wasn't delayed and/or amended given the insane correction we just witnessed, and a volatility spike like the world has literally never seen.
    • EG
      Eric G.
      7 February 2018 @ 19:43
      I enjoyed the Q&A format. But I agree that this could have been more timely. I realize there's a lot of work that goes into these segments, but does it take a week and a half? In the future, to keep these things relevant, perhaps we could include an addendum. Alternatively, it would be nice to get two segments per week. Maybe one of them focused on Q&A.
    • EG
      Eric G.
      8 February 2018 @ 06:29
      *per month
    • EF
      Eric F.
      11 February 2018 @ 10:50
      Jeez, calm down guys. What are they gonna tell us without dust settling first? Macro is a marathon, not a sprint. I’m sure they’ll have some well informed comments by next MoM, by which time they’ll have had a chance to digest and consider. What do you really expect them to pump out right after vol spike? Timing and patience in all things.
  • DS
    DAVID S.
    8 February 2018 @ 13:26
    Hey guys, Thanks for the insights. Liking the format. A suggestion though: I think in these discussions, it would be very helpful to look at the potential trades in more fundamental details for each instrument mentioned. That is where I personally (I am sure I am not the only one) would get an extra value from your content. Thanks guys
    • EF
      Eric F.
      11 February 2018 @ 10:43
      I would also find that helpful. Even if just PDF doc with options for trades.
  • RT
    Rune T.
    8 February 2018 @ 18:02
    Like others have commented on as well, the delay in release is not what one would expect from RVTV. You provide such great content but the delay is putting a dent into the overall impression.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 February 2018 @ 10:09
      Sorry for the delay but I went off travelling around India for my 50th birthday so had to film it early...
  • JL
    J L.
    8 February 2018 @ 14:39
    MMYT up on results http://investors.makemytrip.com/investors/press-releases/default.aspx
    • DP
      Devraj P.
      11 February 2018 @ 06:46
      USD MMYT is 10% down.. May be due to overall downfall
  • JL
    J L.
    7 February 2018 @ 11:13
    Loved the format, probably the best insider talks video. However a 2 week delay from recording date is ridiculous, imo just record and release asap. I think people understand you can't always choose the exact recording time but seriously don't think anyone cares if 2 pieces come out in the same week...
    • TH
      Thomas H.
      7 February 2018 @ 11:54
      Talk is not timely with events of this week.
    • RG
      Remi G.
      7 February 2018 @ 15:19
      I would be happy with just audio just to get timely info. I don’t really need to see your faces. Nice place Raoul!
    • dc
      dan c.
      7 February 2018 @ 17:07
      I agree. Great format, please replicate. I would also like to see timely responses to major market movements but I understand travel commitments will sometimes make this difficult. Overall, delighted with the service, many thanks.
    • MB
      Martin B.
      8 February 2018 @ 09:17
      The only thing I would change is the part about major tops. This should have been done with charts.
    • B
      Bob .
      11 February 2018 @ 02:22
      I like the audio-only format for something like this, plus as an added bonus you reduce your production costs too. :-) Safe travels Raoul.
  • PG
    Paul G.
    8 February 2018 @ 03:48
    would be great to get thoughts on how/ where to invest in Russia (if relevant I'm based in Australia)
    • CS
      C S.
      8 February 2018 @ 05:13
      Perhaps ERUS. US based etf though.
    • TB
      Teresa B.
      10 February 2018 @ 12:08
      Hi Paul, I am in Aus to and invest in Russia. Once of the ETFs I have invested in is RSX - http://www.etf.com/RSX
  • KB
    Krystof B.
    10 February 2018 @ 11:39
    It seams to me you started to be confused because of the last price actions. But fundamentally/demographically your (preferably Raul's) longer term thesis are still in the place even thought it's tough to predict it right now. I am sorry about that because Raul's views have been great and USD to me is still just oversold. For example between 2008 DXY dropped more than 20% from 2005, but still safe investors in the 2008 crisis (ca. 23% up) the same thing is with US treasuries. So short term yes, there is still risk of rising rates, inflation and weak dollar but longer term didn't change a bit. Demographics will tear down inflation, asset prices and dollars will disappear from economy (=stronger dollar) and when the crisis starts, rates will also go down. Who knows when but it's still possible to play it short term (before trend would changed) and hedge it for long term view. Oil is a great example, it's sold heavily right now and Raul's short XOM spread is back to life and then some. I would like to hear your opinions about that. For me, it's too early to change long term views I would say - fundamentals didn't change at all.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    8 February 2018 @ 08:02
    Sign of a possible market top - rising vol and rising S&P - how timely was that! I remembered this point from previous which is why I got long the VXX just days before it ripped higher. Currently feeling very smug :-)
    • LM
      Lawrence M.
      10 February 2018 @ 04:25
      Ah man, lucky you. Damn Merill Edge wouldn't allow me to trade VXX. The rep on the phone explained that they "don't believe in ETNs", and gave me some BS about not being able to recoup investment if vehicle goes sour. At the time the platform didn't even let you know until you tried to execute the order (now there's a blaring red message, they must have pissed off a lot of people like myself, and updated it). Up nearly 70% since I attempted to buy (many of the guys on real vision TV hit this call in the upcoming year predictions.
  • LM
    Lawrence M.
    10 February 2018 @ 04:14
    Loved this video! Format was fun, simple, and informative. As someone re-entering the business, I can say, this was much easier to follow. When partnered up with the research material included in "Meeting of the Minds" it was great. I agree with some of the other comments in regards to the delay in video publishing, but this has been a crazy two weeks. Excited to hear/read your response to the current market volatility. Thanks guys. Ps: What a lovely pool table & bar area Raul, makes me want to grab a cold one! Happy Friday everyone.
  • AG
    Abhimanyu G.
    10 February 2018 @ 02:44
    Excellent conversation, personally I love the new format (more focussed, and more topics covered). With respect to Julian’s comment regarding this being a repeat of 1965, I found the following link useful: https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great_inflation If anyone has any other links/recommendations, please do share as I would love to learn more about this period. Thank you.
  • WM
    Will M.
    9 February 2018 @ 15:23
    "Camping is for Biafran refugees" ....... Julian dates himself there for sure ha!!! :) Good format. Agree some quick graphs would have been positive reminders. Fully agree this was a "bit" dated given the weeks events but very difficult to get out in a day or two folks. Within a full week would be good though.
  • EL
    Edward L.
    9 February 2018 @ 12:36
    The comments and insight from Raoul and Julian have been invaluable. Raoul has given excellent suggestions on how to play his insights, such as XOM, Eurodollar, India ETF, and now Russia and Gold. Julian has not been specific about how to execute his insights such as how to play his fixed income thesis other than his comment to short. I would like to see Julian be more specific. Thanks for your work.
  • SA
    Said A.
    8 February 2018 @ 19:59
    Hunter S. Thompson is my hero check out my Instagram profile picture https://www.instagram.com/theharthi/
  • LG
    Luca G.
    8 February 2018 @ 16:35
    How can we invest in Iran? Can’t find any ETF on that...thanks
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    8 February 2018 @ 15:04
    hi both, great format, if it could happen on a regular basis that would be great. one suugestion: maybe keeping the answers a notch shorter so more questions can be adressed? look forward to receiving the India feedback, good trip. tks.
  • ag
    anthony g.
    8 February 2018 @ 14:48
    This is one of the better and most useful videos of MI. The questions are a good addition and I hope you can do that again. Many thanks.
  • JA
    J A.
    8 February 2018 @ 13:51
    Just shows what a difference 12 days can make. We need another one of these, for now...
  • WD
    Wim D.
    8 February 2018 @ 10:28
    Do we see a structural longer term bear market in the make? And next to going short what are the options to leverage this trend.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    8 February 2018 @ 06:48
    I would suggest adding Q&A as an extra session over and above the current content. It can be once a month or once in two, if it becomes too much. That way it can review the material published over a month as well as questions around current events. It can also be just audio as another subscriber suggested, especially if it makes it easier to add on to the current publishing schedule.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    8 February 2018 @ 03:21
    To your point Raoul, and this may be way too simplistic a view: but if 18 months of 1% got us the ridiculous multi-year housing boom, why might we not get some crazy 20 year cycle off 8 YEARS of ZIRP plus global NIRP?
  • RA
    Robert A.
    8 February 2018 @ 00:43
    I enjoy both formats, suggest 1 of 3 for questions and the rest as Raoul and Julian choose. The sound quality and sharpness of these have improved greatly, IMO.
  • JK
    James K.
    7 February 2018 @ 23:30
    Well done ...maybe add this format on and off ....
  • JG
    John G.
    7 February 2018 @ 18:21
    I like this format of answering questions from subscribers but I want Raoul and Julian to have the flexibility to get into deeper dives on current important issues when they think that format supersedes questions. That said, this was very informative despite the fact the the stock market outlook may have changed. I would want to know if they still believe in "buy the dip".
    • rr
      rlw r.
      7 February 2018 @ 21:47
      I concur, some blend of both formats will be a great development.
  • NH
    Neil H.
    7 February 2018 @ 21:01
    great format. do it more often.
  • JP
    Jonathan P.
    7 February 2018 @ 20:46
    The Q&A format was a great change of pace. Moving forward, maybe it would be possible to spend the bulk of the time on deep dives, and then answer a few questions (on the same topic or some other particular topic). Always appreciate your perspectives Raoul and Julian.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    7 February 2018 @ 20:09
    Julian, I beat you up a little in the last video, but I have to say your presentation dynamic was so much better and a real pleasure how you and Raoul shared the conversations. Please continue to present in such a wonderful professional manner! Very tough to answer the questions in such a short time frame, but you guys nailed it! Regarding Mars Trip, Tesla launched into outer space begs the question------are they allowed to send junk into orbit? Respectfully Yours.
  • DM
    Dean M.
    7 February 2018 @ 19:44
    great format! more like this would be super
  • BT
    Brian T.
    7 February 2018 @ 14:31
    Great piece and this is a much improved format for sure! The recent equity rout played out similar to what was laid out - a rise in volatility just before the drop, DeMark turn signals all over the place (which could have been highlighted in this video as they were apparent 6 weeks ago....). Of course, I couldn't agree more that these videos should be released far more rapidly. I know there will always be a delays due to post-production, but with macro moving so fast at the moment, it would be very helpful to release more quickly - even if it means answering fewer questions and maybe adding a second segment each month. I'd rather have 2 short pieces per month that are timely than 1 long piece that is clearly dated in retrospect. I know time is valuable though and there is additional cost involved... MSA is signalling a breakdown in momentum in equities and is therefore "predicting" an equity bear market (at least so far as the FTSE, DAX, and S&P go, Nasdaq has not yet confirmed). My question for next time - are we entering an developed market equity bear market - and what is the probability that it is a short-lived one like 1987 where we get a more substantial drop - say 20-30% on the major indexes - say 2,150 on the S&P - which becomes a screaming buying opportunity for a much higher ultimate peak? If I believe the near-term equity market bear case, is it a harbinger of a coming recession? I can't see how commodities continue to rally if the fundamentals are about to turn and a recession is imminent - even with a lower dollar - because recessions cause a drop in aggregate demand. Recession is not in my sights anywhere on the screen! I can't see how we get a U.S. recession with a dropping dollar, with accelerating inflation, and growth globally. But I greatly respect the work of technical analysts like Tom Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry and MSA who both seem to believe this drop in equity prices has significantly further to run (HFT based on Elliot Wave theory and 13-month exhaustion DeMark signals, MSA based on momentum structure studies). MSA's work is very bullish commodities. So what is the scenario where we get an equity market drop of significantly more magnitude than we experienced this week, but we still get the blow off top in commodities over the next 12-24 months? I think it's got to be either (a) an equity drop of 3-6 months (-ish) followed by a big equity rally to much higher highs, or (b) stagflation. If it's (a), which would be my base case, the answer is simple - buy commodities now and equities on a downside exhaustion signal. If it's (b), I'm not sure what I should do. I also wanted to thank both Raoul and Julian for their insights and all the hard work put in to create this service!
    • JL
      J L.
      7 February 2018 @ 15:27
      Julian has tweeted to be cautious until volatility retraces substantially and even sell rallies. And Juliette Declercq was live on Bloomberg along the same lines, arguing equities have been a leverage party and calling the system one big Ponzi (she really did). Check out her twitter for a chart on how equity confidence lags credit impulse, implying if we don't go back to the "normal" grind higher we could be talking recession this year...
    • JL
      J L.
      7 February 2018 @ 15:28
      ***credit impulse lags confidence in equities
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    7 February 2018 @ 12:35
    YES!!!! This format was awesome because it allows us to read your guys content and formulate question for this recap. Awesome job guys and Im truly humbled to be a part of this group. Im learning so much from you guys. The cherry on top is its showing up in my P & L but that's just the footnote in to my experience with macro voices. Keep up the great work guys and thanks for helping me elevate my game. You guys are doing a great job of showing there is a better way to manage money.
  • JV
    Jason V.
    7 February 2018 @ 11:13
    Excellent. Thank you, gentlemen. Some great insights and trade ideas to set us up for the coming months. The subscriber questions took the conversation in some new directions which was both educational and actionable. Much appreciated.