When I hear centrist I hear left wing. The center is left. There's only one thing you're not allowed to be: far right. Far left is a cute teenage phase. Far right is an evil nazi. What does that tell you about who's in control of the narrative?

I’ve decided to play precious metals via ultra high grade junior to mid-sized miners that can operate profitably at wide ranges of price. It’s worked very well with Kirkland Lake, Wesdome and Silvercrest Metals.

Nice conversation thanks ALSO my daughter wants to buy a property, the timing worries me .. if you can confirm or deny that I'm right to be worried maybe i could get her to read the response .. So basically the question to 'macro daddies' IS MY DAUGHTER ALLOWED TO BUY A PROPERTY THIS YEAR ? i tell her to wait & she rolls her eye.

Raoul. Where do you stand on MMT - Modern Monetary Theory, and the probability a Western Government tries it in the not so distant future? Do you think this could be the spark that transforms the deflationary outcome you see coming into an inflationary one? I'd also be curious about Julian's thoughts? If you don't respond here, it would be great if you could discuss this in a future Insider Talks if you have a view - strong, or otherwise...

SPX up five days in a row going into Tuesday's high; Been higher 97% (last 33 times one failure) of the time in the next five business days which would give target to next Tuesday for a higher high. Outside chance SPX could make it to November, December highs near 2800 range.

Due to changing conditions, you have changed your positions a bit - fair enough. It would be great if you updated us on past recommendations, specifically the short calls on SPX, BKX, GOOGL, XOM.

The easiest trade in bear market is always 2-5 year bond as Druckenmiller described. USD hedged india bonds are the best given the inflation, election as well as global tailwind. Just a theoretical trade because it is not available to most. USD is more volatile than 2-5 year bond but still a relatively easy trade because of recession. Other economic is a leveraged version of US. US recession means others falling harder so that USD rise. Short stocks is the most difficult because unlike bond and USD this trade is to fight against central banks, governments, medias and people around. Personally i think the best is to talk more and do less when excited as in Christmas and talk less and do more when cautious like now. But at the end short stock is just a reflection of the highly competitive nature of (almost) every trader. One need to counterbalance oneself and overcome this slightly, and trade more in bonds and less in shorts.

Is this a good timing to enter into the Dec 2020 Eurodollar trades?

Just watched this. Understanding the great uncertainty around the current circumstances in markets is really helpful. It's so easy to fall in to the trap of thinking that there is a "right" answer, and that it should be traded. I found the lack of clear views as to what will happen next very helpful!

I have Julian's fears while holding my short sales with white knuckles, but I find myself in Raoul's camp. Balance sheets are so insanely leveraged that most tangible book values are now significantly negative. The handful of darlings that pushed the market up and up are finally wilting. Even cult stocks like TSLA are having difficult getting upward traction. I haven't tallied it, but I suspect the S&P 500 as a whole now has a negative tangible book value. Mountains of corporate Baa2 and Baa3 debt that's on the verge of being cut to speculative causing God knows what chaos in the bond market. Couple that with dismal economic data plus political turmoil and I'm just not convinced that the central bank can blow this bubble even bigger unless they were to go completely insane and start buying equities in addition to bonds.

Nice conversation guys. Good to see you guys doubting yourselves like the rest of us. Curious about Raoul's comment that we haven't seen real hard negative economic data yet? It felt like he was more confident about this a month ago? For what it's worth, I lean towards Raoul's point of view, and the Feds easier stance won't make much difference now. It's really a confidence game now, with likely more negative to mixed hard economic data to start coming in. Might be useful to have a calendar of major potential macro/data events that could set this off again. Wonder if Macro Insiders would do that for us?

Raoul, the DAX is starting to descend here. Other weaker indices might indicate we are heading lower. Enjoyed the workshop. Regards from Houston. Joe

Why would there be a bear market in bonds, if QE is likley? What am I missing?

This is also the first year where the tax reform hits individuals. Wondering how this will affect both the political climate as well as the economy.

Great conversation guys. Wondering if you have a favourite part of the 'hero' fixed income trade Raoul - treasuries? (across the curve?)

I have the feeling that the next down leg in the equity markets will eventually come and catch a lot of people by surprise.

Excellent one and thanks guys—message received. Not going to take much for me to cover the few shorts put on @ 2600-2650. Who needs the static it just hurts the head....and uses up emotional capital that needs to be husbanded for later battles. I’ve said for years—“I’ll run out of emotional capital before running out of capital”! Macro Insiders has been very useful to me.

Really enjoyed the conversation about political polarization and societal dysfunction, especially where you tied it in with QE, offshoring, and share buybacks.

Another helpful conversation. I have been shorting the SPY's here because of the weakening global data but the risk to a bearish position is definitely the Fed. The Fed Put is back in play but it is a matter of how much stock market pain the Fed is willing to take. I think a slow decent would keep the Fed from taking easing action until the data shows a high risk of recession. In that case, Raoul's call looks like the most probable. Another 10 - 15% crash could force their hand sooner and Julian's fear would be correct. As they said, we just have to stay tuned.