Comments
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JALooking back at this now (03/02/18), crikey did they get some big calls correct. Can't wait for the next one...
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WDDid I correctly understand that Raoul sees gold topping a last time a 1380 for a last dive before taking off? That must than coincide with a bounce in DXY.
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MGI love these insider talk videos, but I think they could be taken to the next level if they would be done live and maybe dedicate 10 min or so to Q and A? Just a thought but I think it would raise the bar to these videos, personally.
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ggMMYT trades on Nasdaq
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CLJulian mentions the FED involved in the VIX. Didnt know they had the mandate for that ? Any way to confirm this or is it intuitive that someone is really suppressing it ?
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SSJulian, a respectful few suggestions: You talk on top of Raoul before he finishes, please have less rocking so much in the office chair and turning off your email program. Regarding you comments on snow/rain water in the Rockies, I live in Arizona, involved in the real estate business since 1978, was a dirt merchant (land) for many years, working with ground water, Central Arizona Project (CAP) water wells and the like. Most of the water in AZ flows underground to the Gila & Salt River Baseline Meridian in Maricopa County, Phoenix. There are exceptions such as around Benson, AZ, which flows to Mexico. Maricopa County is the largest populated agricultural county in the USA (at least used to be) with AG having been moved to other counties within the state. Cotton farming and the like uses 88% of all the water. CAP under Bruce Babbitt happened on the agreement to move Cottone & AG out of the county to make way for residential & industrial which uses combined 12%. Yet, they still recharge underground water in the county with the CPA canal water. Nevada however has a real difficult situation regarding water. If AZ were truly out of water, our population growth rate would not exist and the likes of Bill Gates who just bought an enormous parcel of land to develop an all digital city, most likely would not have happened. The fakes news that we're out of water is a push for more taxes and water rate increases. I mention all this because I subscribe to RV TV to hopefully get the "truth" on what's really happening and not all the bull shit fake news. I can handle the truth. Regarding China, I believe the people have been locked down from the outside world for so long, they have a huge desire to see and experience the world and bring back what they learn to China. No worries mate, I'm a huge fan. You guys are amazing. All the best!
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TMYour most comprehensive and best discussion yet. Thank you.
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KATo respond to Raoul's question: the reason the Chinese buy the expensive goods at Harrod's [instead of in China] is that they think it is less likely they will get a counterfeit product if they buy in London. If they buy it in China, they are sure it will be a counterfeit.
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CYI think I'll respectfully disagree with Julian's view on bonds this year. The long end of the yield curve hasn't moved and the flattening of the yield curve tells me something is afoot. And also in regards to entire market positioning, equities are stretched, world is short dollar, and yields are bumping up against 25 year trendline. It certainly could happen the way he lays out but if Mr. Market would really want to screw everyone the dollar would rally hard from here, with a subsequent correction in equities. We'll see but that's my call this year. In the world of trading pairing long term bond and long EM positions you for both outcomes. More of a neutral play.
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THRaoul just threw in the towel on his bullish dollar trade per twitter 7 minutes ago.
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WDIs there a way to short Bitcoin?
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WMEnjoyed the discussion and the format. This dollar thing is so important to commodities, gold, EEMs it would change my entire investing bias......
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EGThanks guys, a few suggestions: (a) Please bring back the moderator - scattered discussion (b) Please turn off the notifications on your computer - distracting
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RIAs Julian mentioned, European bond markets are the most overpriced in the world, which bodes well for the EUR. In addition and more importantly, accelerating twin deficits in the US don’t bode well for the DXY (unlike the Eurozone).
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JGThanks, Raoul and Julian for another insightful commentary and update on your longer-term investment ideas. I have been investing for 36 years and this environment reminds me of 1929 and 1999 because I am hearing rationalizations after rationalizations as to why the U.S. stock market has another 10% or more upside before the top. The global economy is accelerating but so much of that is due to the jump in oil prices. That said, the buying power and selling pressure that Lowry provides confirms that this bull market has a ways to go unless this time is different than other cycles, which I contend it is. The reason it is different is QE and zero/negative interest rates. We are about to see what happens when those policies are reversed. At some point the historically high valuation of the U.S. stock market will matter and the next market crash will be as bad or worse than the one that started in 1929. This will put many seniors in a very bad retirement situation and probably an economic depression.