Insider talks – January 2018

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: January 12th, 2018 • Duration: 32 minutes

In the first video for the new year, Raoul and Julian go on a journey across countries and asset classes and give us a taste of what’s on their radar for the coming year. The conversation ranges from the potential breakdown in the dollar and bonds to cryptocurrencies, espionage and opportunities in global tourism. Filmed on 8 Jan.

Comments

JA

J A.

3 February 2018 @ 15:59

1 0

Looking back at this now (03/02/18), crikey did they get some big calls correct. Can't wait for the next one...
WD

Wim D.

19 January 2018 @ 09:31

1 0

Did I correctly understand that Raoul sees gold topping a last time a 1380 for a last dive before taking off? That must than coincide with a bounce in DXY.
MG

Miguel G.

12 January 2018 @ 13:43

27 0

I love these insider talk videos, but I think they could be taken to the next level if they would be done live and maybe dedicate 10 min or so to Q and A? Just a thought but I think it would raise the bar to these videos, personally.
- SR
  
  Steve R.
  
  15 January 2018 @ 09:46
  
  0 0
  
  I like the idea, but with a global audience selecting a suitable time would be tricky to say the least.
- MG
  
  Miguel G.
  
  17 January 2018 @ 11:49
  
  1 0
  
  Can't be everything to everyone doing a live insider talk video that benefits the majority of paid subs. would be the ideal route to take, just my opinion.
gg

gurdeep g.

17 January 2018 @ 11:47

0 1

MMYT trades on Nasdaq
CL

Charl L.

12 January 2018 @ 23:03

0 0

Julian mentions the FED involved in the VIX. Didnt know they had the mandate for that ? Any way to confirm this or is it intuitive that someone is really suppressing it ?
- TC
  
  Tom C.
  
  16 January 2018 @ 00:50
  
  1 0
  
  Admitted by Fed Chair Powell earlier this month in the FOMC: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-05/fed-chair-makes-striking-admission-we-have-short-volatility-position
SS

Sam S.

15 January 2018 @ 15:10

1 5

Julian, a respectful few suggestions: You talk on top of Raoul before he finishes, please have less rocking so much in the office chair and turning off your email program. Regarding you comments on snow/rain water in the Rockies, I live in Arizona, involved in the real estate business since 1978, was a dirt merchant (land) for many years, working with ground water, Central Arizona Project (CAP) water wells and the like. Most of the water in AZ flows underground to the Gila & Salt River Baseline Meridian in Maricopa County, Phoenix. There are exceptions such as around Benson, AZ, which flows to Mexico. Maricopa County is the largest populated agricultural county in the USA (at least used to be) with AG having been moved to other counties within the state. Cotton farming and the like uses 88% of all the water. CAP under Bruce Babbitt happened on the agreement to move Cottone & AG out of the county to make way for residential & industrial which uses combined 12%. Yet, they still recharge underground water in the county with the CPA canal water. Nevada however has a real difficult situation regarding water. If AZ were truly out of water, our population growth rate would not exist and the likes of Bill Gates who just bought an enormous parcel of land to develop an all digital city, most likely would not have happened. The fakes news that we're out of water is a push for more taxes and water rate increases. I mention all this because I subscribe to RV TV to hopefully get the "truth" on what's really happening and not all the bull shit fake news. I can handle the truth. Regarding China, I believe the people have been locked down from the outside world for so long, they have a huge desire to see and experience the world and bring back what they learn to China. No worries mate, I'm a huge fan. You guys are amazing. All the best!
TM

Todd M.

15 January 2018 @ 01:26

1 0

Your most comprehensive and best discussion yet. Thank you.
KA

Kelly A.

14 January 2018 @ 18:19

8 0

To respond to Raoul's question: the reason the Chinese buy the expensive goods at Harrod's [instead of in China] is that they think it is less likely they will get a counterfeit product if they buy in London. If they buy it in China, they are sure it will be a counterfeit.
CY

C Y.

13 January 2018 @ 03:26

4 0

I think I'll respectfully disagree with Julian's view on bonds this year. The long end of the yield curve hasn't moved and the flattening of the yield curve tells me something is afoot. And also in regards to entire market positioning, equities are stretched, world is short dollar, and yields are bumping up against 25 year trendline. It certainly could happen the way he lays out but if Mr. Market would really want to screw everyone the dollar would rally hard from here, with a subsequent correction in equities. We'll see but that's my call this year. In the world of trading pairing long term bond and long EM positions you for both outcomes. More of a neutral play.
- CS
  
  C S.
  
  13 January 2018 @ 10:35
  
  2 0
  
  I appreciate your comment (thumb up). Thinking again, the blow off top has always been the best way of creaming the moms and pops, no? And you're assuming US Treasuries will still be the go-to in case of an equity/EM reversal. I must admit, 'owning more EM' as Raoul put it, doesnt look so attractive when viewing the charts I have available. Cheers
- CS
  
  C S.
  
  13 January 2018 @ 11:54
  
  1 0
  
  Lastly, where does capital preservation (versus swinging for the fences this late in the innings) rank in the order of priorities at this juncture?
- CY
  
  C Y.
  
  13 January 2018 @ 15:57
  
  2 0
  
  Hot M, great comments. Your question around Treasuries being the go-to in an equity reversal is a very good question. It's something I've been asking myself a lot. This bond bull market could die on this hill but it would be unusual to see it end when sentiment towards long bonds isn't exuberant. I think at the end of the day it's critical right now to have assets for multiple outcomes. As it relates to the EM picture I highly recommend reading GMO's Jeremy Grantham's latest piece on asset allocation. He makes the argument that in a crisis EM will fall but lower starting valuations are likely to drive a faster recovery. I completely agree with you though. As I allocate capital I've continually been telling myself to keep some gas in the tank so that when I need to stomp the gas there is something there.
TH

Thomas H.

12 January 2018 @ 19:00

5 0

Raoul just threw in the towel on his bullish dollar trade per twitter 7 minutes ago.
- EF
  
  Eric F.
  
  12 January 2018 @ 19:38
  
  1 1
  
  I know he's relying on technicals but not too early? Repatriation was / is surely still core to the thesis? If the charts were reading one way for things to go up then it not possible to also misread for them to go down?
- JH
  
  Janet H.
  
  12 January 2018 @ 19:47
  
  0 0
  
  about time!
- TH
  
  Thomas H.
  
  12 January 2018 @ 21:06
  
  1 0
  
  On the weekly UUP stockcharts.com, one could say a double bottom or head and shoulders top. I will wait and see.
- DW
  
  Daniel W.
  
  12 January 2018 @ 21:37
  
  3 0
  
  Peter Brandt said the same last week. Double bottom still in the cards.
- SR
  
  Steve R.
  
  13 January 2018 @ 08:20
  
  2 0
  
  Please note that for every USD bull there is also a USD bear (e.g. Juliet Declerq, Greg Weldon, Peter Brandt) etc. Having agonised over the USD direction for months I'm now firmly in the USD bear camp, as, IMHO the argument is stronger based on the fundamentals and what the market is telling me right now. So unless we get that "double bottom" I'm sticking with the bear case. All IMHO of course.
WD

Wim D.

12 January 2018 @ 18:38

2 0

Is there a way to short Bitcoin?
- JJ
  
  Josh J.
  
  12 January 2018 @ 22:22
  
  0 0
  
  Not the underlying, but you can short it through CME and CBOE futures.
- SR
  
  Steve R.
  
  13 January 2018 @ 08:16
  
  0 0
  
  You can short many crypto-currencies at https://www.ig.com/
WM

Will M.

12 January 2018 @ 20:39

0 0

Enjoyed the discussion and the format. This dollar thing is so important to commodities, gold, EEMs it would change my entire investing bias......
- WM
  
  Will M.
  
  12 January 2018 @ 20:46
  
  1 0
  
  Comments on Google, Amazon and Facebook just felt right on the mark.
EG

Eric G.

12 January 2018 @ 20:03

3 14

Thanks guys, a few suggestions: (a) Please bring back the moderator - scattered discussion (b) Please turn off the notifications on your computer - distracting
RI

R I.

12 January 2018 @ 19:56

3 1

As Julian mentioned, European bond markets are the most overpriced in the world, which bodes well for the EUR. In addition and more importantly, accelerating twin deficits in the US don’t bode well for the DXY (unlike the Eurozone).
JG

John G.

12 January 2018 @ 18:30

3 0

Thanks, Raoul and Julian for another insightful commentary and update on your longer-term investment ideas. I have been investing for 36 years and this environment reminds me of 1929 and 1999 because I am hearing rationalizations after rationalizations as to why the U.S. stock market has another 10% or more upside before the top. The global economy is accelerating but so much of that is due to the jump in oil prices. That said, the buying power and selling pressure that Lowry provides confirms that this bull market has a ways to go unless this time is different than other cycles, which I contend it is. The reason it is different is QE and zero/negative interest rates. We are about to see what happens when those policies are reversed. At some point the historically high valuation of the U.S. stock market will matter and the next market crash will be as bad or worse than the one that started in 1929. This will put many seniors in a very bad retirement situation and probably an economic depression.