Comments
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DSReally good analysis. Two novice questions about the prior cross border capital flows that have set up this $ move: 1) How do you determine whether the flows have been hedged or not? 2) Are you just looking at asset prices to see where the flows have been going?
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JMReally good piece! Made me resubscribe for another year. Thank you Julian and Raoul - also good to see that you are answering questions in this comments section - ty.
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JMGiven market outlook I wonder what should one do with URA investment?
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JMDear Julian, I understand the framework you use for your opinion that we will see a stronger dollar. There is however one thing I don't really get. You state that a lot of dollars (hot money) left the US via the capital account which replaced the dollars that should have left via the current account. The danger right now is if these dollars get sucked back in, the dollar could go much higher. However, as people like Jawad Mian, Kiril Sokoloff and Michael Howell from CrossBorder Capital have pointed out, there has been an enormous concentration of international money in us assets over the past few years because of deflation fears. It seems to me that you agree with this because in your opinion us interest rates are suppressed because of the enormous money flows from overseas that came to the us bond market. So my question is how do you reconcile this enormous concentration of capital in us assets with the danger that us hot money flows will come back to the us? Isn't this concentration of capital in us assets much bigger than the us hot money that may come back?
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LDLen D. Your new found realization that geopolitical risk is rising should temper your US dollar outlook. More countries that have been negatively impact by Washington's US first policies will be joining China and Russia in reducing US influence by dethroning the US dollar. Economic warfare is more probable than real war over the next few years.
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BRWhat is the target range on the USD hitting its top
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JKWhen you talk about a shortage of USD, couldn't FED just supply those via swap agreement (has been in place since GFC, so to increase them, wouldn't be a big leap)?
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CDRaoul, what is the stock in India that you are/were invested in? Is it just the India ETF? thanks Cheryl
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MPGreat discussion and product. Building a wonderful community in RV. Raoul, how about a RV Conference in Cayman with some talks by some of the regulars and where we can all mingle and meet over drinks afterward. It could take the community to the next level. Just a thought/hope. Mark
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ACIs there, or will there be a transcript?
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SSExcellent discussion for the third month in a row! Thanks for another thoughtful overview of the key issues. The trade frictions with China appear to me to be just leverage to get what Trump wants more--removal of nukes from N. Korea. China probably wants that too, so success at some level looks likely, implying good things for CAT, BA, etc. Do you gents agree? Question: when you talk about shorting EM, do you truly go short, or do you buy puts? If puts, what recommendation do you have for the strike level--5% to 10% out of the money? Thanks.
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RMcf
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RMI have a question regarding Julians trade recommendation to short the EEM etf. My brokers, (IB), do not provide access to US-ETF for retail investor located in EU, (due to MiFID II), so is there any alternative way to execute this trading idea with a ETF that is available for EU citizens? Or should I open e different brokers account?
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JKA question for Raoul, if it about to hit the fan wouldn't you expect the yen to strengthen as a result of the risk off safe haven flows in to the yen as I noticed in The Distillery released last Friday that you saw a big move and a much weaker yen going to 125 vs. the USD. Thanks and keep up the great work!
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DLI am a Canadian with businesses and investments in the US and CANADA I have capital sitting in both countries. Would you agree that taking advantage of the USD strength verses CANADIAN DOLLAR is a good bet for CANADIANS?
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GSTop conversation and a great discussion on position sizing!
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NHBrilliant as always. Sounds like it's time to go to the beach and come back in November
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NII've been wanting to short this insane bubble for a very long time. Please send an alert when you think it's time to pull the trigger.
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MBExcellent piece...you can hear the excitement around things starting to take shape. Absolutely loved the statement from Julian - "Just sell some f*cking stocks"....love it. Really good format.