Insider Talks – March 2019

Published on
March 14th, 2019
Duration
26 minutes

Insider Talks – March 2019

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: March 14th, 2019 • Duration: 26 minutes

Raoul and Julian ponder whether a dovish FED is enough to keep stocks up and look at higher probability trades in other asset classes for this softening global economic backdrop. Filmed on March 11, 2019

Comments

  • LD
    Lance D.
    6 April 2019 @ 14:19
    anybody getting black listed hear?
  • TS
    Tyler S.
    27 March 2019 @ 19:14
    I guess Flash Updates are no longer a thing
  • RM
    R M.
    14 March 2019 @ 16:01
    As far as I can tell, only part 1 of Julian's piece on capitalism is out: RIP Corporate Capitalism: Part 1, from February 28 2019 Meeting of Minds. Expect part 2 in March issue?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      26 March 2019 @ 16:30
      Ladies and Gents ...Part II on the way
  • CS
    C S.
    17 March 2019 @ 00:07
    Does anybody have a link to the write up Julian mentioned at the end of the discussion? Had a quick look, couldnt find it. Tks
    • LD
      Lance D.
      17 March 2019 @ 17:33
      'Had a quick look couldn't find it' ,,, Really ? G'wan give it another bash
    • LM
      Lawrence M.
      20 March 2019 @ 03:35
      I'm interested as well. I didn't see anything with that title in the older publications.
    • LD
      Lance D.
      20 March 2019 @ 11:44
      the first part was in the last meetings of minds it was titled something like- RIP Capitalism is dead - if it was not this i will be scratching my head too
    • ph
      phil h.
      20 March 2019 @ 22:59
      Yes, I’m confused too. Would like to read this.
  • BC
    Brent C.
    14 March 2019 @ 17:17
    Even though there was no real conclusion, I thoroughly enjoyed this. It appears to me, the data we've seen coming in is as expected. It also seems to me, there should be no real expectations of improvement in data over the next 2 quarters or so. Which would generally lead one to assume you should be selling this rally. Your hold up, however, appears to be price is not confirming, and so many have been too early calling an end to this bull market over the years. However, that may be precisely why the time is right to do so. Overwhelmingly, the data we've seen thus far is as close to recessionary as we've seen since 2011. Rosie, on the TV side out today, confirming as much. What's clear to me at least at the moment, is equities are not priced for what seems to be an imminent margin contraction & sales decline. The most glaring example being the rally off the lows in the Semi's since 12/24. Coincidentally, the semi's offer a decent lead on US GDP, and according to Russell Clark, the last two times we've seen a decline of this size in Korean Semi export year on year was 2001 & 2008 (page 2 on attached link) It actually seems fairly clear to me what comes next. https://www.horsemancapital.com/marketviews/russell-clark/2019/02/semiconductors-kospi-index-and-suppressed-volatility
    • BC
      Brent C.
      20 March 2019 @ 14:30
      Lakshman out with a piece today confirming cyclical leading indicators not turning up yet either. And doesn't see the 2nd half rebound in the cards given their data sets....
  • HO
    H2 O.
    16 March 2019 @ 20:33
    Disappointed there has not been more or any analysis of the reasonably high-frequency flows into the US the have been supporting equities and HY. The conclusion that markets are waffling around near a top and we are just going to wait for a catalyst is not very satisfying. Financial conditions have been easing for reasons far beyond equity market strength, and as for when this might all come crashing down, there are clear and measurable triggers that will tell us when this process has run its course.
    • AG
      Adam G.
      19 March 2019 @ 15:05
      I have the utmost respect for these 2 guys, however.... I found the content lacking somehow. I wonder if there other clients get more and when do they fold the cards and admit that they are wrong.
  • JL
    J L.
    19 March 2019 @ 14:54
    something has to give... should one perhaps buy ootm puts on both SPX and DXY?
  • WM
    Will M.
    17 March 2019 @ 18:03
    Good honest discussion. No point recommending trades if confidence is not strong.
  • LD
    Lance D.
    16 March 2019 @ 18:23
    Its conversations like these that remind me of the earlier insider talks where we were encouraged to go through our trades/portfoilios bc of that video i now regularly like to see where my exposure/correlation is.... so my job this weekend is to see what sectors/industrys is most pos/neg exposed to $ also most Neg/Pos corellations & exposed to oil.. I think this is all we can do for the moment - I'm on the look out for the 'BAT PHONE' to FLASH aka 'flash update' Thanks Guys
  • JU
    Joshua U.
    16 March 2019 @ 15:37
    Really appreciate the transparent dialogue and disagreement. Tremendous value to help see both sides of the argument. Additionally, I truly appreciate that you both have not been trigger happy to send out Flash Updates/trade recos. The right trade is often no trade at all, waiting for the signal to be much clearer and the probabilities to be higher before pulling the trigger. That patience is deeply valued. Thank you!
  • JK
    James K.
    16 March 2019 @ 03:25
    Nothing wrong with the statement: “My current position is that I have no position”....Never try to “push” a trade.... Starting to lighten up on my PM/Miners positions a bit ...Gold/Miners are potentially setting up a H &S pattern... Thoughts ...? Great discussion....it’s what it is right now ... Thx. Jim-
  • se
    scott e.
    14 March 2019 @ 20:38
    Raoul Without Fed Bonds sounds a fair play this but the probability of more intervention from data or politics as Julian says has to be reasonably high, 5th time lucky. Other than tips ( allowing running hot) what might be a useful way to play bonds?
  • SV
    Steven V. | Contributor
    14 March 2019 @ 19:18
    The Fed is talking about ending QT to placate investors. Powell said the government shutdown, which is currently to blame for the economic slowdown, should pass through the data by Q2. The Fed is just trying to calm investors until Q2, when the Fed will figure out the shutdown only made things worse. The global slowdown is due to QT -- the reduction of the Monetary Base and World Dollar Liquidity. Full employment is not inflationary when you have a massive amount of near-zero interest rate debt. The economy needs full employment so consumers can borrow in attempt to offset the rapid destruction of currency caused by zero-percent interest rates.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    14 March 2019 @ 16:56
    Thanks guys. Sometimes the play you don’t make or the call you don’t make is the right play or call. After 50 years of being an avid Horseplayer and an active Handicapping Tournament player I have found that sometimes a spot and horse you have been waiting for “tics all your boxes” including generous odds....and yet...you just get an inking that something is missing that you can’t put your finger on. Years ago FOMO (and the potential for great ‘street creed’ with fellow players) would win out and I’d pull the trigger...only to have a Loss for some reason that could only be seen in hindsight. Patience may be an underrated virtue and I often send players I am mentoring a copy of “Winnie and the Pooh” with a quote highlighted—“Sometimes when there is nothing to do, I do nothing”. I know this is long winded, but what I do want to assure you both is that the value of MI is there, IMO. We know you won’t get it right every time, but as you both point out we are just trying to get the odds on our side.
  • JE
    Jos E.
    14 March 2019 @ 16:54
    Hi guys, surely demographics make high inflation unlikely?
  • BG
    Benjamin G.
    14 March 2019 @ 15:17
    Raoul, after the past few weeks what is your current opinion on GOOGL?

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.