Comments
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aggood one - is RV going to do a summary at end of these at any time ?
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MB..after all, Raoul is human - 10 bagger on bitcoin instead of a 35 bagger..; well done to both and I do concur with Jason, this direct discussion format is far more naturally flowing. May I please follow up with 2 Qs: 1) Raoul, you use the ISM as the guidepost for the business cycle, but out of history, is it that superior to PMIs and/or Industrial Production? 2) Julian, you expect an upward surprise in the CPI, a view I have sympathy for. but with US disposable income growth below consumer spending and the saving rate going down that much, at the same time robotics and AI potentially imposing a deflationary force while US debt keeps increasing from already high levels, how can inflation build up when all the above mentioned aspects may negatively impact GDP (unless AI / robotics lead to a massive productivity growth overcompensating for dismal demographics [US BLS exp labor force growth of only 0.2% over next 5Y]? Others please feel free to chip in as well. many thanks indeed! rgds, Matthias
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CRGreat video. Julian, what happens to the euro after the drip to 1.12/1.13? Thanks guys
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MBAs a non-native english speaker it is very hard to follow a conversation which is recorded in such a bad audio quality. I'm very disappointed...
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ACRaoul, Following up on Brent C below I commented on this rising VIX with a rising SP500 from the 1990s before (on one RVTV interview, which I can’t find now!) and would like to explore more. My feeling is that this would be one way for Mr Market to screw over the most people (all those people calling for a 10-20% correction, those buying SP500 puts and those selling VIX Vol). But I am not sure the exact trade (apart from the short EFTs) for selling VIX Vol so I am struggling researching further. Aren’t the forced buyers just buying back their sold Vol positions, which “shouldn’t” have an affect on the actual SP500 Index (apart from, perhaps, they have to get funds to repurchase?) Might you discuss this in more detail please?
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DGSorry, macro insidets. I thought I had TV open.
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DGI was going to complain about no specifics but after looking at the website I think there is plenty of information there. I can't tell if it's a British hedge fund or a mutual fund. I liked the program.
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AMThis was a really good conversation, and I agree with others who suggest this flows better without a moderator. I noticed it had been recorded before the events currently taking place in Saudi Arabia. I am surprised financial markets haven't really reacted to these events. What's happening in Saudi Arabia reminds me of what was going on in Iran before their revolution in 1978. It all seems controlled until one day everything erupts as society (wrongly or rightly) decides it doesn't approve of the heavy handed changes being proposed.
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ELTo Paul W. regarding the Fourth Turning. Neil Howe and William Strauss's book "The Fourth Turning" is based upon their thorough study of history. They found that in the four generations in a span of 80 some years that each generation is a product of the society in which their had their formative years. And these generational characteristics repeat every fourth generation. We are moving into the generation or turning in which many of our societal institutions are no longer serving us. What results is chaos as we change the institutions which are no longer working and develop new institutions which move us through to better times. You can also go to u-tube and search Neil Howe. There are several videos of him discussing these dynamics.
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M.Hello ladies and gentlemen, We have encountered issues with the audio recording and the end result is far from our high standards. That being said, this is addressed and the video next month will be back with top notch quality. As always, feel free ask me any questions by clicking the Milton HQ on the bottom right of your page. Lovely day to you all!
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KACool stuff. Thanks. Do you take into consideration the total market cap of all US stocks relative to the country's GDP? At 80% or so it's go time. When it moves to 100% it's usually time to tap the brakes. It's at 139% or so right now. Record was 145% in dot.com bubble in 2000. Sometimes dubbed the "Buffett Metric." Thoughts?
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BCRaoul/Julian Question regarding your market melt up comparison w/ the comeback of volatility similar to 99/00. Given the current amounts of money invested in target volatility strategies, risk parity strategies, volatility selling to capture premiums, and the sheer amount of margin debt overall, it seems unlikely to me that ever rising volatility would cause equities to burst higher. The scenario that seems more likely to me would be a quick break lower as all of these program trades become forced sellers. If we consider Julian's take on rate hikes, margin debt will become more costly as well, thus increasing the hurdle rate required for further use of it to make sense. I'm not sure if either of you have looked at Frank Brosen's presentation at Grant's Pub, however he makes the case that a 3% market decline will turn these programmed vol trades into net buyers of volatility, not sellers. In Chris Cole's latest, he also discusses current market structure at length, (another excellent read). And seemingly after making a similar case to Frank's on the fragility of the current environment, he concludes that it could end in a melt up scenario as well. Taking it all in, I'm having a hard time coming to the conclusion, that the initial volatility burst higher will lead to a blow-off in equities. It seems more likely to me that it will lead to an 87/98 type of snap back. I'd love to hear your thoughts as it relates to this, as well as any reader generous enough to lend theirs.
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EKTaking *nothing* away from Adam and Aaron, a direct conversation between Julian and Raoul is best.
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SBRaoul, Can you give an update on oil and whether a new entry point on the short side still has value?
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JVExcellent, gentlemen. Rather liked the direct conversation format. It allowed for a smooth flow of ideas and overall conveyed your current thoughts on macro and markets clearly and concisely. Gun powder at the ready. We await your call!
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JGI agree with others who prefer Insider Talks to just be a conversation between Raoul and Julian with no moderator asking questions. The discussion flows much better and it is easier for Raoul and Julian to express their differences in views and question each others views and to stay on the subject until they want to move on.
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APthis direct conversation format is fresher and allows the conversation to flow more natural
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NOI agree with Jason - the conversation seemed to flow much more naturally without it being moderated. Thanks guys.
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PWHi Raoul and Julian, That was pertinent, thank you. If I could ask Julian, could you do something about your audio feed? It may be the microphone...