Insider Talks – November 2019

Published on
November 7th, 2019
Duration
48 minutes

Insider Talks – November 2019

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden

Published on: November 7th, 2019 • Duration: 48 minutes

Raoul and Julian discuss apparent cracks in US consumer strength against the possibility of reflation trades. They touch upon the dismal state of the car sector and ISM/employment numbers that, while for the time being are neither here nor there, are showing signs of strain. The two agree that we will likely know by Q1 2020 the ultimate path the consumer and economy take. They also discuss excessive investment and the bursting of the venture capital bubble. Filmed on November 1, 2019.

Comments

  • GP
    Geoff P.
    7 November 2019 @ 20:34
    Great conversation guys. I've been looking at these growth / value plays myself. I'm more inclined to favor oil (not shale cos) over base metals (still think china struggles, and auto sales suffering also hurts), but I agree the Germany / US pair could do very well. Interested to see what you put together. Any thoughts on short term rates here? Many thanks.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 November 2019 @ 22:19
      Geoff, just back from 2 weeks in Europe and NO clients loving these markets. Moves have been too quick, lack fundamental support etc. But pain trade into year end would be broad stocks higher with value outperforming growth, Europe beating US, bond yields higher and dollar still frustratingly stuck.
  • TF
    Thomas F.
    8 November 2019 @ 15:43
    Thanks, this helps a lot understanding the macro picture better. A suggestion: If you´re looking at a chart, can you put that up on screen? :)
    • TF
      Thomas F.
      8 November 2019 @ 15:47
      meaning: recording your screen on your PC/Mac so you can put it on the video
    • TF
      Thomas F.
      8 November 2019 @ 15:57
      Wrote the comment in the middle of the video when I paused to look at something referenced. Also, a link or the ticker symbols would help in the description, took a bit to find that Japanese bank...
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 November 2019 @ 22:14
      Thomas as with Bruce's comment this isn't a bad idea. Maybe we can edit charts in post the call.
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    8 November 2019 @ 23:25
    Not sure why this "Insider Talks" was so messy and disorganized. I was going to let this slide—but having lost track of the number of times Julian interrupts Raoul—PLEASE return to your Standard Operating Procedure of a mutually constructive dialog. Lastly, given that Raoul and Julian are on opposite sides of the bond trade, I would be delighted to hear you chat about your respective convictions.
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      9 November 2019 @ 02:26
      Yes.... MI chatter on bonds has been exceedingly light these days. Mindful that a lot of us MI folks here have significantly long long bond positions! Further insight and clarity appreciated Raoul / Julian
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 November 2019 @ 22:12
      Bruce I think a bond only chat might be very interesting. I'll discuss it with Raoul
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    11 November 2019 @ 01:47
    it would be great if both of them interact more with MI clients in this platform vs twitter. It seems we are talking to ourselves in this comment box...
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      11 November 2019 @ 13:06
      Yep.... not feeling the love here from R and J... Initial MI marketing videos promised engaging interactions with founders of MI in the comments section but does not look like the case...
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 November 2019 @ 22:10
      Alberto sorry I've been travelling meeting MI2 clients for the last couple of weeks. So less active than usual. That said if you look back you'll see I do try and stay on top of the comments on my pieces or the videos.
  • JW
    J W.
    11 November 2019 @ 16:50
    I really like these talks They make you think (and laugh - keep that sense of humor going). I have a question about why platinum is deemed to be so attractive. The car industry is the fourth (approx,) driver of platinum sales. This industry seems to be on a downward slope (no doubt pushed further down by such cutting edge designs as the RAM1500 Crew Cab :-).
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 November 2019 @ 22:08
      Hi Joel ...glad you caught my Twitter sarcasm! The reason I picked Platinum is because in 2016, when we had true reflation it performed so well. If you don't like it for the legitimate structural reasons you set out, then copper, oil etc are reasonable alternatives. Essentially what you are looking for is commodities that perform when you have real growth inducing reflation.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    12 November 2019 @ 11:22
    Julian - USD Index is still up - in a bullish channel with target top 100 on weekly. The move down Oct 1 to Oct 18 was strong and that has put on the brakes. So I think its wise to keep an eye on this esp from 99.15 to the Sept 30 2019 high. That may be a turning point.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 November 2019 @ 22:05
      Hi Thomas, as you will see from this week's piece, we are looking for turn but haven't pulled the trigger yet. If I may, I'd suggest looking away from the DXY. Its too European focused (over 77% of the index is European FX). Instead, I'd watch USDMXN (huge wedge that is getting very tight and trying to break) and AUDUSD (trying to hold a double bottom) for signs of a major dollar turn.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    13 November 2019 @ 12:54
    I dont see the dollar breaking down. You got massive dollar debt. China needs to start to feed its people soon. All those I owe you's in china wont fly for long. Nobody will sell food to them for Yuan. Then you have capital flight from countries. What are they buying? dollars. And everything is priced in dollars. If the interest rates for treasuries start going lower then everyone will start front running. Agian need for dollars.
  • LD
    Lance D.
    8 November 2019 @ 16:05
    Well id like to know if julian has any drinking aids knocking about ..... love to see his cereal bowl hahahahahahah any how good food for thought imo
    • LD
      Lance D.
      11 November 2019 @ 19:33
      After getting a thumbs down I thumbs up my own comment .. that cup is massive . Whoever felt they needed to thumbs down that needs to get a grip and so do I for replying 😳
  • JW
    Joel W.
    7 November 2019 @ 20:19
    Gents, I continue to find value in this service but I can’t understand why it takes so many days to publish an episode. On RVTV, I can imagine issues with # of shows, publishing schedule, etc, but for a premium service with only a few issues per month I expected a higher priority. And can we pretty please have the option for an email each time something is published?
    • KH
      Kavi H.
      8 November 2019 @ 05:57
      Completely agree with the above comment. With the market and macro so dynamic it would be helpful to publish episodes sooner.
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      8 November 2019 @ 12:36
      100% agree. I think MI subscribers should be shown a little more love!
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      8 November 2019 @ 17:59
      I agree and it looks like there are more timely updates on Think Tank service, than here. I didn’t subscribe to TT thinking I would get better value with this more premium service...
    • TF
      Thomas F.
      9 November 2019 @ 04:16
      That might be intentional to separate the product from their higher priced offerings...
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      9 November 2019 @ 06:18
      Completely agree on all points. They did issue a separate email for a very short while after several pleas, but no longer it seems. Apparently RV are concerned with flooding our inbox with annoying emails, but an email with “MI update” in the subject line will not be considered annoying. It’s what we’re paying for. We want to know about things as soon as they come out. To be frank, I’ve given up on trusting their emails and just check the app frequently, as even when email alerts are issued they’re often days after the item was posted. As Yoshitaka said, MI subs should be shown a bit more love. It’s the only RV sub I’m wavering on resubscribing to, not necessarily because of the money, but perhaps because of the value for money. And that’s meant with no disrespect to Julian or Raoul.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      11 November 2019 @ 12:13
      Gents - I will push our email team to deploy mails as soon as a report/video is live. I'll also talk to our MI team and try to get them to post the reports/videos as soon as they are 100% from a production point of view. I know they want these reports and videos out according to the schedule so at the end of each week. Maybe we can change this a little.
  • MW
    Marco W.
    10 November 2019 @ 03:50
    Just to put in my two cents. MI's format is about perfect for me. The two In Focus reports from Raol and Julian update the medium to long term tactics. Meeting of Minds talks about long term to secular trends. Insider Talks gives live picture of current sentiment as well as resonance or conflicts of thoughts. The disagreement is perfectly fine for me because it stimulate deep thinking. If one look at the trade ideas from 1-3 years horizon, many ideas of MI are marvellous. For example, (10-year) bond yield was 3.2% and recently was below 1.5%. Will it go to 2% in next week or month? Possilbe. Will it go back to 3% in the next few quarters, I would say unlikely while I think impossible. Or say the singling out of NFLX among FANG. Or say precious metal trade. As for short term, I think it is very difficult for anyone. One could just sell half when it is overbought and overbullish. The other half will be executed based on In Focus.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      10 November 2019 @ 23:39
      Marco, Regarding that last sentence, if you haven't looked at Hedgeye and their risk range product, you may find that helpful for this kind of trading. I have no affiliation to Hedgeye, apart from being a subscriber to the aforementioned product, and the Macro Show. Hope this proves helpful.
  • JI
    Janne I.
    7 November 2019 @ 20:51
    If Bernie Sanders wins the presidency, will this crash the US market? Or maybe even if he gets the democratic nomination?
    • TF
      Thomas F.
      9 November 2019 @ 04:14
      Well, Sanders is a lower proabplility than Warren, but it will have similar results. Most talking heads say it's gonna be about 20/30% down. You might wanna look at Corbin in the UK if you like to speculate on Politics. not sure that's fully priced in.
    • WM
      Will M.
      10 November 2019 @ 19:39
      There is zero chance of Sanders being the candidate. There is also zero chance of Biden being elected. They are way past the sell date. Former can't beat Warren and the latter can't now keep up the pace due to age.
  • RM
    R M.
    7 November 2019 @ 20:59
    I would gladly trade in the formats you guys have been using for a regular live webinar, with whatever charts you'd like to show, and the trade recommendations doc with stops. It is a great conversation, but in the last week the bond trade has largely round tripped and the metals are hovering just over Julian's stops. A webinar would also probably take you guys less time to prepare. Just my two cents.
    • ET
      Eduard T.
      9 November 2019 @ 08:54
      agree!
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    8 November 2019 @ 18:03
    These conversations are always thought provoking and I highly respect both of these guys. Not sure if at the end there is some actionability in actually making money as the timings is always difficult to judge. I have seen like 6 of these conversations and it always feels we are waiting for something. I know that Raoul has a framework but it gets lost in this type of conversations. He does not have the space or minutes to finish his thoughts and explains his hypothesis. By the way, the conversation went a bit all over the place with very interesting stuff but not very clear hypothesis; well I guess that is what the reports (in focus) and flash updates are all about. Again, love the conversations but sometimes I feel I am getting more into Raoul's head via twitter..
  • MZ
    Matthew Z.
    8 November 2019 @ 15:20
    Having some of these charts available as a PDF would be awesome
  • BC
    Brandon C.
    8 November 2019 @ 14:18
    Taking a quick poll. Thumbs up if you are bullish Bitcoin long term, thumbs down for bearish or don't care.
  • GH
    Gary H.
    8 November 2019 @ 13:13
    Good content. Sometimes hard for Raoul to finish a thought.