Insider Talks – October 2019

Published on
October 9th, 2019
Duration
44 minutes

Insider Talks – October 2019

Featuring Sassan Ghahramani, Julian Brigden

Published on: October 9th, 2019 • Duration: 44 minutes

Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, sits down with Macro Insiders’ Julian Brigden to explore the major issues facing the global economy — from central banks to trade wars — and provide a prediction for the macroeconomic endgame. Breaking down the recent moves by the ECB to the Fed, Ghahramani argues that central banks around the world have passed the point of diminishing returns for their monetary policy playbooks. He shares his views on the true impact of trade war between the U.S. and China - comparing the conflict to the Cold War. Looking at the 2020 election and a potential Elizabeth Warren presidency, Brigden and Ghahramani present the potential consequences for corporate debt, the business cycle, and fiscal policy. Filmed on October 4, 2019 in New York.

Comments

  • AS
    Alan S.
    16 October 2019 @ 18:06
    I am somewhat stunned at the negative comments here. When Mr. Ghahramani states he sold 80% of his equity holdings in May, that is VALUABLE information. The fact he is out of the market, essentially, tells me I should be as well. There have been 5% dips since he exited; and he did not move back in - what does that tell you as to how he sees markets unfolding? I found this conversation very valuable. How many did not listen to the end, and in not listening to the end, missed what I consider to be the gem of the conversation?
    • PC
      Paul C.
      29 October 2019 @ 19:37
      Well spotted... this interview took me a few listens (I’ve got the attention span of a goldfish) - great discussion.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    20 October 2019 @ 17:49
    Was there any new information or insights in this conversation? I did not detect any.
  • WM
    Will M.
    18 October 2019 @ 19:15
    No transcript on this one?
  • TF
    Thomas F.
    17 October 2019 @ 12:35
    What´s your take on the Kyle Bass HKD bet? The Risk/Reward seems exceptionally good if you see a more than a 10% chance of the PEG breaking...
  • BM
    Brendan M.
    14 October 2019 @ 20:52
    Excellent interview, great broad sweep, US , Europe, China, Middle East, all acting on each other.
  • JK
    Jim K.
    12 October 2019 @ 19:38
    In a scenario where Elizabeth Warren is the Democrat nominee and the economy is in a slowdown/ recession, Donald Trump will be the first incumbent to win re-election in a recession. Warren cannot credibly move to the middle and the country is not ready for this type of leftist IMO. The risk is 2024.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    11 October 2019 @ 04:01
    Julian - you're caught between a rock and a hard place; you've got to come up with something for this content slot and balancing the inherent value MI customers (we) place on the product with maintaining the momentum you and Raoul have built up over the last few months. I appreciate something new/different and don't feel short-changed. I agree with the comments that this is an expensive service (that easily pays for itself), but if people want more, I suggest stumping up for the institutional offerings from MI2 and GMI; (some of us have made enough to afford it) then you get the frequency and quality of content you're asking for. Those who haven't been on the train since last September, settle in and enjoy the ride - sometimes the brightest minds aren't the best communicators (sometimes the charlatans have the showy & simple messages). Expend some effort, investing/trading/navigating this stuff isn't easy (I've made every mistake in the book the last 18 months and I'm still here grinding away).
    • av
      aleksandar v.
      11 October 2019 @ 19:46
      Daniel, I couldn’t agree more
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    11 October 2019 @ 02:40
    Hi Julian. The problem with this interview is the lack of opinions or point of view based precisely on information their firm gets from policy makers. Not asking for spoon feeding but we do pay this service to get an idea of implications and get some conclusions from your side in order to better navigate the markets. Nowadays most people manage to get the same level of good information (at least this audience). My suggestion when Raoul or you are away is to grt someone like Grant Williams (cofounder of RV). Now we are going to wait for November which seems like an eternity for how the world is shaping up :). Thanks.
    • BH
      Boris H.
      11 October 2019 @ 09:35
      Off topic: Now that you mentioned Grant - what happened with him? We haven't seen him in many months neither in interviews nor elsewhere - he stopped retweeting RV content..
    • AA
      Alberto A.
      11 October 2019 @ 19:36
      Not sure what is going on with Grant..I love his series in RV...super interesting interviews with famous investors and successful traders...his not too involved in the markets these days..at least he doesnt tweet about it..
    • av
      aleksandar v.
      11 October 2019 @ 19:37
      I predominantly disagree with sentence 2,3, and 4. Totally agree with 5 & 6!
  • av
    aleksandar v.
    11 October 2019 @ 19:25
    I have been a subscriber of MI for 2+ years and I find it very useful. And yes, you actually make money with their recommendations, provided you have the patience for the macro factors to play out, but it’s nothings like the “trade idea” series. I rarely copied the exact same trades that Julian and Raul suggest in MI, but used my own trades based on their macro and other revelations (also from insiders such as Sassan). Julian, Raul, I can only say that each month I eagerly await the upcoming Insider talks, and I want to very much thank you for your work. Great value for money!
  • JL
    J L.
    11 October 2019 @ 11:54
    essentially if you have 100k in savings it is very difficult to justify the expense, over 7 figures it becomes almost a must imo, between that will depend on how active you are
  • BH
    Boris H.
    11 October 2019 @ 09:39
    I enjoyed the interview quite a bit and found Mr. Ghahramani's thought process structured and elegantly presented. His insights (as Julian mentioned below) into the political nuances of rate cuts, trade war, impeachment etc. are quite valuable when I added them to my own framework.
  • KG
    Kevin G.
    11 October 2019 @ 08:17
    This interview is brilliant - I think people need to realise, understand, then appreciate who is being interviewed and that this is un-biased and un-conflicted information and provides an insight to policymaking; one that is materially different to other forms of research. Julian might as well have been talking to the policy makers themselves. Having access to this is fantastic!
  • JB
    Julian B. | Contributor
    10 October 2019 @ 22:09
    Having read all of the comments. I'm sorry that some of you didn't like the interview. However, would like to address some of the issues and perhaps explain why I believe there is real value here. The first thing to understand is that SGH is very different from most firms that comment on policy. That's because their information is primary sourced i.e. direct from policy makers and isn't their opinion. Their team have been doing this for ever and understand the subtlety that policy makers use. The end result isn't always a concrete trade. Although, if he's right about the odds of a Fed cut in October being less 50% vs 80% currently priced, that has clear market implications. The real value is that it helps you establish your own framework, which you can use to interpret and anticipate how policy makers will respond to events. That way you are one step ahead of most of the markets.
  • GH
    Gary H.
    10 October 2019 @ 17:49
    Nothing new here. Lost focus watching this many times
  • DD
    Derek D.
    10 October 2019 @ 17:27
    Neither FDR's spending nor the war got us out of the Great Depression. It was ending the war and slashing government spending, when all the economists (who now insist we spend our way out of this) said there would be a massive crash and soaring unemployment if we didn't keep all the soldiers employed in the army.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    10 October 2019 @ 15:32
    Thanks Sassan and Julian. Conversation could have been structured better to cover macro policy and regions, sectors. No real conclusion other than Monetary policy is coming to end game Fiscal policy has a lag and jump out then back in on dips. So for a 43m listen time I would like to see more focused, more detail on at least one specific idea
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    10 October 2019 @ 07:18
    Enjoyed listening to julian and ready to have raoul back.. Think this audience is much deeper than generic “monetary policy bad, fiscal policy worse” commentary. Would be a good opportunity to explore high skew entries/trades during this time of expected imminent volatility, but just my opinion.
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      10 October 2019 @ 12:01
      Well said. Very much agree with this.
  • JQ
    JACK Q.
    10 October 2019 @ 11:12
    Next time raoul’s away - just leave it to Julian talking about his thoughts alone :)
  • JC
    Joseph C.
    10 October 2019 @ 09:25
    I’m paying for this??
  • WG
    Willem G.
    10 October 2019 @ 08:15
    You can bring on Macro Insiders the brightest of minds but, if they are not eloquent, not being able to communicate their ideas clearly, it is not good for us! Almsot every sentense had at least one "ah" and "ahm". Very tiring to listen. This does not happen when Raoul or Julian speak. Even if you are at high school, you can understand what they are saying, what they suggest and always enjoyable, as well to listen. In a video presentation, someone also needs to be a good communicator as well, that's my point.
  • JK
    James K.
    9 October 2019 @ 23:52
    I as typical enjoyed Julians comment, thoughts and observations. Especially near the end looking forward to 2020, 2021, Warren, etc... The guest didn’t bring any innovative thoughts to the conversation, IMO. He seems a bit out of touch in certain areas, might be helpful for him to read ZeroHedge or The Epoch Times occasionally. Seems to get his information from MSNBC, CNN type of sources. Just didn’t come off that sharp. Anyway...one persons opinion ....
  • LJ
    Lucille J.
    9 October 2019 @ 22:42
    This total madness
  • GH
    Gregory H.
    9 October 2019 @ 21:56
    Great interview Julian. You should do a normal RealVision interview with a special guest every couple months or so.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    9 October 2019 @ 21:28
    That was great! Thank you both very much. Gloomy times ahead... I will never lose faith in free markets (or freedom).