Hi Lance, thought I replied to this but looks like it never went through. In short, listed derivs are centrally cleared, so virtually no CP risk. CFD's...you have CP risk....Lehman, Knight Capital, LTCM.... For recalls, if it's a DM market with a developed SBL (stock loan market) market, unlikely to be recalled. Say XOM US. However, if you are shorting in EM / Frontier markets it's a different story. i.e. I buy an Indonesia name on swap. So inventory sits on broker balance sheet. They give me synthetic exposure. You want a short...so they sell that inventory and write you a short swap. So broker has no inventory, just long/short swaps making financing pnl. If I want to sell....since not an SBL market, you will get recalled. Hope it helps. Ed

Hi Edward , that was helpful and greatly appreciated thankyou and all the best . Cheers

Good point but funnily enough it hasn't been going up with the market despite this fact. I wonder what that tells us

Ya, fair enough was the case, but back on the grind with the recent oil moves.

Tactics bets should be 1% or or less in terms of risk of loss. Strategic bets, which are fewer and further between can be 5% to 10%, sometimes more.

Excellent. Thanks very much, Raoul. This is extremely helpful.

No, as O have an entire investment framework around this i tend not to be super stop level focussed and give things some wiggle room On tactical trades I tend to be more stop loss focussed.

when they reach 70.5... which is happening in increasing numbers each year and peaks out around 2022 or so.

Believe that is ELS. Essentially at all time highs. Agree with RP on many things, but I wouldn't wade into this one here.

Equity Residential (EQR)

Raoul - In prior reports, you indicated that if the DXY trades below 93 and worst-case at or below 92, then you would likely need to change your global macro views. Currently, the DXY has breached 92 and is trading around 91.45. When will it be safe to say the dollar bear market (and consequently global reflation) have won?

"Importantly, unlike the 2005 HIA episode, the proposed deemed repatriation tax is expected to be mandatory, but does not require actual repatriation. Meanwhile, we find that the large bulk of what would be repatriated is held in USD denominated assets, and is already located in the U.S. under offshore beneficiaries. • We refresh an exercise we first conducted last year examining the 16 firms that comprise 50% of total unremitted earnings. Using those findings to extrapolate assumptions for the rest, we estimate that of the $2.2trn stock of untaxed offshore earnings, the potential USD inflows are probably at most $460bn, or 2.4% of GDP. We do not expect a significant impact on USD funding markets because the vast majority of unremitted earnings are 1) “overseas” only for tax purposes, and are in fact held in U.S.-based custodial banks and 2) roughly 85% invested in a combination of corporate bonds, Treasuries and agencies."

I'm long biscuits, tea bags and beige clothing... Job done.

Great back and forth here with two different opinions. It's good to challenge one's views and not be dogmatic about them.

I remember Raouls online advertising "investigation" WPP short worked just fine.

Schatz GBS on Interactive Brokers