Not sure about anybody else but i think its a real good idea to have a plan for a weak $ as well as strong $ . i could be wrong though

Yes, an important scenario. Any more comments on the stagflationary bust scenario? When the dollar cycle does crash out, US rates are going to jump amid very toppy markets and an already stretched fiscal deficit. Trump wants a lower dollar, but appears to have little if any appreciation for how that might occur and the second order effects if it does.

Steve its an issue of sequencing. If we get a US market drop my bet is that it will trigger a global risk off move. The US market is simply too large to allow the US to implode without broader implications. At least initially, that should be $ positive as US investors bring money back home (we have discussed how in the face of a lower US current account its been US capital outflows that have kept the global $ supply stable). Yes eventually at some point, the pain will be so great the Fed will ease and the $ will weaken but not initially.

Good question Namit

I read about WYDE and TYTE ETFs. Raoul & Julain : any take on this?

Gents I haven't seen any retail ETFs ...part of the issue is that post the GFC you can't trade naked underlying sovereign CDS. You must own the underlying bond.

I think Julien's video on the road map is Aug 9th

I swear the above post had line breaks on mobile. Looks abysmal on the desktop site! Sorry to anyone that sees it as a brick of text. I'm going to copy and paste a quick excerpt from the blog so everyone can decide if they're interested in reading it or not. It really is a fun read. And if this post shows up as a brick of text someone please, for the love of God, tell me how to manually add line breaks for all of our sakes! (Going to try   and see if it adds a line break below so ignore that if you see it)   Alibaba Pictures - Page. 162 After years of delay they've finally written down (and consolidated) Alibaba Pictures, taking an impairment charge of RMB18.116 Billion (US$2.888 Billion). They were also careful to mention on page 162: "Nonetheless, the market value of our investment in Alibaba Pictures as of March 31, 2018 remains well above our original investment amount that we paid in June 2014." This Alibaba Pictures write down was coincidentally offset by a consolidation gain for the write up of Cainiao, here's the note buried on page 129. "In October 2017, as a further step to implement our New Retail strategy, we completed a subscription for newly issued ordinary shares of Cainiao Network for a cash consideration of US$803 million. Following the completion of the transaction, our equity interest in Cainiao Network increased from an approximately 47% to an approximately 51% and Cainiao Network became our consolidated subsidiary. We expect that Cainiao Network will help enhance the overall logistics experience for consumers and merchants across our ecosystem, and enable greater efficiencies and lower costs in the logistics sector in China." The amount of the gain is buried on page 145. "The increase was primarily due to a non-cash gain of RMB22,442 million (US$3,578 million) arising from the revaluation of our previously held equity interest in Cainiao Network when we acquired control over Cainiao Network in mid-October 2017." It is indeed fortuitous that wonderful write-up opportunities like Cainiao pop up just when a businesses like Alibaba Pictures begin to falter. Alibaba management is truly blessed. The obvious question I have is, the total gain booked is US$4.137 Billion (Pg. 4) and that includes the Cainiao gain of US$3.578 Billion that would indicate that there's another US$559 Million in write ups that are not described anywhere else. In a mainland investment environment where equities are down substantially in the last six months, could it be that these write ups might be illusory and there are more write-downs/offs on the horizon?