Live with Louis-Vincent Gave

Published on
November 22nd, 2019
Duration
48 minutes

The Mid-Cycle Man – Thesis: Year-End 2019 Outlook


Live with Louis-Vincent Gave

Featuring Louis-Vincent Gave

Published on: November 22nd, 2019 • Duration: 48 minutes

Louis-Vincent Gave is the CEO of Gavekal Research. In 1999, Gave left Paribas to start Gavekal Research. He has experience in both Paris and Hong Kong, which led him to author, “Clash of Empires: Currencies and Power in a Multipolar World.” In “Clash of Empires,” he examines the break down of the world into three regions with distinct monetary policy and even reserve currencies. In a special episode, Gave joins Real Vision co-founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, for a wide-ranging conversation about the most important factors in the macro world.

To read Louis-Vincent Gave’s latest research click here https://www.realvision.com/live-with-louis-vincent-gave-report

Comments

Transcript

  • M.
    Milton .. | Founder
    4 December 2019 @ 12:32
    Stephen - Yes, I've talked to a lot of people that are happy with the change and yes, we are also listening to your feedback. Changes are being made. That's why you see Louis's reports in this interview. We want to bring you Access to a breath of fresh high quality talent that you don't get in other places. That's why we have Jim Bianco today. I understand it may have been a rough start and there's a lot of discontent from people who were genuinely enjoying Think Tank. That's why we'll try and mix video with research. At the same time for future live talks we can debate changes and upgrades on the live chat bottom right and keep the comment section going on the topic at hand.
    • JM
      Jim M.
      4 December 2019 @ 17:10
      You took away what we signed up for and paid for and replaced it with more of what we already had. We are all RV fans - just correct the mistake and stop the obsfuscating and double talk.
    • RA
      Ramani A.
      23 December 2019 @ 03:32
      Just got to view the video of Louis Gave. The recording was atrocious. The sound quality was quite poor. So I gave up. I then listened to Brian McCarthy and here, the questioner didn’t add much value and Brian’s side of it had poor cogency.
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    20 December 2019 @ 07:24
    the sound recording is blur sometimes. Overall still lots of room for improvement. I expect on par with the free podcast quality recording if not better for a paid serives.
  • AT
    Alan T.
    3 December 2019 @ 16:41
    Agree with general comments below on Access being a notable product downgrade from Think Thank. Original thesis for my TT subscription was that I wanted to read written research, notably by outside providers twice a week, which then (positively) got supplemented by RV’s Compass and Join The Dots. I’m not sure how Access is different from RV Television now - feels like the weekly videos should be there In Television offering. For me Access needs to revert to the old TT format, otherwise I can’t see my self continuing with the RV Access service.
    • GG
      Gary G.
      4 December 2019 @ 00:08
      Agree!!
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      4 December 2019 @ 12:37
      Think Tank bought forward some very good research pieces over the year but we are a small company and we can't afford to keep a product that doesn't produce the desired results. We sometimes have to slash an offering and change it. It's all about testing, losing, evolving and maybe winning. Macro Insiders will remain our main research offering as Raoul and Julian provide top notch research. Access will bring forward research along with live talks but the latter will be the main value point.
    • NK
      Nicholas K.
      4 December 2019 @ 16:01
      agree!
    • MC
      Matt C.
      16 December 2019 @ 07:09
      Agree entirely.
    • TT
      Tokyo T.
      18 December 2019 @ 03:06
      I already canceled Access; it's the same as TV but poor quality with limited reports and research. The response is sadly tone-deaf from management.
  • SM
    Stephen M.
    3 December 2019 @ 19:42
    This is just a mess of complaints in here (again). At what point does Raoul and the team start considering that they might have got this wrong?. Are they listening?. Is there anyone here who is happy with the change and happy to pay the extra for Access?
    • SC
      Sejong C.
      4 December 2019 @ 04:24
      Unhappy subscriber here. The old Thinktank was better, even though the amount of uncurated data thrown at the subscribers were sometimes overwhelming.
    • NK
      Nicholas K.
      4 December 2019 @ 16:00
      definitely a unhappy subscriber here too, and i like how the overwhelming uncurated data was thrown at subscribers
  • AE
    Alain E.
    3 December 2019 @ 02:25
    Great insights from Mr. Gave. Wholeheartedly agree with him on the US already doing MMT. And we know where this leads. MMT = Mugabe Money Theory
  • DR
    David R.
    1 December 2019 @ 12:55
    Could anyone else ask questions during the live interview? I could NOT for both sessions. There's a popup question window but it was disabled. Not that I had any questions, but if I did, that would suck, staying up as I did til nearly 3 Fucking AM (in East Asia containing 3-Billion ppl)l wealth now) and being unable to interact). TQ.
    • DR
      David R.
      1 December 2019 @ 13:26
      Addendum: I found it to be an interesting interview, though.
    • DR
      David R.
      1 December 2019 @ 13:37
      The extra reports (in the link in the description) are a nice touch.
    • RM
      Richard M.
      1 December 2019 @ 15:44
      You have to "log in" to the video chat session - it's down at the bottom of the chat window. You can log in as a specific user or just do an anonymous login. Altho the typing window is really small to put your questions in.
    • DR
      David R.
      2 December 2019 @ 11:53
      Richard M, thank u for explaining the need to login to video chat. I hadn't noticed it and assumed that by logging into Access I'd be chat-enabled already. Ths again.
  • BF
    Bret F.
    2 December 2019 @ 08:02
    4 years and 8 months ago. (March 10,2015) The DXY was at 98.31. If by accident,FED action etc. Evidently markets think its priced decently. A lot has happened it's moved very little
  • WB
    William B.
    2 December 2019 @ 02:41
    If this is a teaser for a more expensive RV, it failed with me. Seemed very rambling and pointless with nothing actionable.
  • MT
    Matt T.
    27 November 2019 @ 19:05
    Can't speak for everyone, but why not just have the old TT twice-weekly reports created by RV in the product? Aside from the odd gem (GMI, TTMYGM etc) I thought the contributor's research was quite poor. I can't see how screengrabbing some charts from Bloomberg and coming up with a decent narrative twice per week is so uneconomical. It really helps/helped the small guy like me.
    • SG
      Sashi G.
      28 November 2019 @ 05:29
      I would second Matt's sentiments
    • GG
      Gary G.
      28 November 2019 @ 17:44
      Agree. Bring the reports back. I see more value in those than listening to someone's opinion on Access. I already have RVTV for that. Otherwise, may have to cancel and get hedgeye research.
    • MT
      Matt T.
      2 December 2019 @ 00:48
      I already have Hedgeye and think it's a great product. However, RV compass and Joining The Dots really augmented my macro research. Hedgeye is more data-driven/stock market-focused (yes I know they do every asset class.) Whereas RV provided some good old-school macro ideas across the globe.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    1 December 2019 @ 18:44
    One of the best RVs I have watched in a long time. Louis was insightful and non-consensus, as usual. Raoul is such a great interviewer. Thanks to both of them. It would be interesting to match Louis with Peter Zeihan. I bet that would be a fascinating conversation.
  • JB
    James B.
    1 December 2019 @ 17:44
    Awful audio which could have been dramatically improved simply by Louis and Raoul using earbuds to eliminate speaker / microphone feedback.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    1 December 2019 @ 08:46
    Please RV don’t merge with Hedgeye as someone else suggested. Let Hedgeye be awesome dependable, clean, unique & straightforward Hedgeye.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      1 December 2019 @ 09:42
      Forgive me. Too harsh I know... but RV’s dependability just went way down in my view. How do I know you won’t withdraw MI and replace it with something of lesser value. Not a great way to treat your subscribers.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    1 December 2019 @ 08:43
    Could not listen. Audio is unbearable. Heard him on Macrovoices. Where are the reports I paid for?
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    26 November 2019 @ 14:51
    My suspicion is that they are trying to curb costs, acquiring third-part resarch is costlier, and they have transformed Access in a second lighter (less videos weekly) version of Real Vision. I subscribed for 2 years for a product and I am getting a completely different one. Nobody has asked me if this suited me...
    • SM
      Stephen M.
      26 November 2019 @ 19:36
      Yeah, they should offer refunds for the remaining period. I used the trial for TT then subscribed for a year because I liked it. That was only 5 months ago. Now I get this. I'm not interested in jumping on the 'Fck these guys' bandwagon that's approaching because I respect those at RV too much for that. BUT I've cancelled my auto renewal for access and will probably get what I'm looking for from Hedgeye now. Unfortunately, this product is not for me.
    • JM
      Jim M.
      27 November 2019 @ 14:38
      Trying to curb costs (or other motivations) but not being transparent about it. Doesn't sound like the guys I partnered with a couple of years ago.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      1 December 2019 @ 08:41
      Absolutely. I’m furious. Something I paid for and was promised has been extinguished without consultation.
  • CO
    Craig O.
    30 November 2019 @ 03:46
    On the bright side user engagement us WAY up in the comments section. 😉 Nevermind that 80% is negative feedback on the product. However the other 20% is content related commentary, and that's much more than Think Tank ever got. Maybe there is something to work with here if RV listens and responds to suggestions about augmenting these video interviews. (I think they will)
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    29 November 2019 @ 20:44
    Another factor facing Chinese leadership is that there is unrest inside China. If they allow Hong Kong to basically face them down and win, what is going to happen in those other places where there is unrest? Especially if the economic situation takes a turn for the worse? I am not as optimistic that this will be resolved positively for the people of HK, and if it's not, what comes next? And RV, as many others have said, the audio was TERRIBLE. A real black mark on what is generally one of your strong points.
  • AC
    Avi C.
    28 November 2019 @ 07:48
    Really sad to say but this is a failed product from the get go. no point of rehashing what others have already said.
  • EQ
    Eduardo Q.
    27 November 2019 @ 15:19
    I don´t know if the added value of Access is that we "former TT subscribers" can clear some of the questions that might have surged from watching previous interviews of the guests on RV TV... which would imply that we have to subscribe to both TV and Access. The previous interview on YC steepening on Access was insightful, however, watching the interview of Michael on RV TV, it seemed to me like I was having a Dejavú... So why to attend Access content, when we would be better off ($$$) just subscribing to RV TV... I reckon that there were some changes that needed to be done on TT. I strongly criticized some of the new contributors to TT, like this guy from Macrowise... terrible... however, we could learn a lot from the other contributors... I saved a ton of time tracking some of the charts I found inside these reports, which is kind of cool because I have neither an Analyst (apart from myself) nor a Bloomberg terminal. I understand the situation of RV. I continuously saw little engagement in the comments section on TT's reports... there might be a lot of nerds like me, willing to spend time reading them, but, from my experience, offering "Global Macro" reports to retail traders-investors in LATAM can say that most of the people comprehend things better when there´s some sort of interaction and videos are much better for that than on "paper" reports. The thing is, I don´t see any added value rather than some questions that we can throw at the guest. Which actually are just like 10% of the content in these interviews, the additional 90% is similar to what we can find on their interviews on RV TV... or on other podcasts, which are for free... like HedgeEye... I hope to see positive changes along the way on the platform and the content we get. I still have a year more of Access, but if this continues like this as many have said... I´ll be clicking the cancel renewal button and go to another provider... What the heck is REFINITIV?... just watched some of their videos on RV´s Youtube Channel and they are much better than this one and for free...
    • AP
      Antonio P.
      27 November 2019 @ 15:37
      Totally agree!
    • JC
      Joshua C.
      28 November 2019 @ 05:11
      https://www.refinitiv.com/en
  • CO
    Craig O.
    28 November 2019 @ 03:05
    Started to watch but bailed b/c of audio and since I'm pretty sure there's not much new here since his MacroVoices interview last week. Would like another month to evaluate the (so far disappointing) changes to ThinkTank. But my renewal is this week and although they offered a bit of a discount on next year since I am a Founding Member, I'm planning on canceling my sub. Unless Milton can give me another month to evaluate? Was hoping for better from Access.
  • VD
    Vincent D. | Contributor
    27 November 2019 @ 22:42
    The audio is shamefully bad, which is weird since RV usually has excellent production quality. But Louis always has something interesting to say, especially on China. A good break from the big crowd of USD bull / china bears on RV. Thanks for providing both sides
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    27 November 2019 @ 20:09
    Louis -with respect -if the Fed/govt uses NAMES that you believe Are literally true then the 4th amendment would not be effected by the “Patriot Act” ? Please- you sound silly saying printing currency is not printing currency Aka QE if the Fed says it isn’t.
  • CL
    Chris L.
    26 November 2019 @ 15:06
    So, basically this is a paid MacroVoices? This is becoming a joke. Whether it's HedgEye, Real Vision, Macro Voices etc. it's the same damn interviews. This is not to success Gave isn't worthwhile to listen to, but I just did a week ago on MacroVoices. Literally thousands of competent people to interview, judging by the comments, people are getting tired of the same ol stuff. In two weeks, this will be free on YouTube.
    • CM
      Chris M.
      26 November 2019 @ 15:52
      Have to agree with Chris L. on this one. Gave has some interesting thoughts but he has been interviewed by a lot of other financial "outlets". Definitely notice that a lot of the same people make the rounds between RV, Macrovoices, etc.
    • BM
      Brenton M.
      26 November 2019 @ 21:22
      In the last month we've had what, 30-40 interviews? One guest happens to have been on macrovoices a couple of times. Burn RealVision to the ground! Complaints on audio are valid. This is just entitlement gone mad. Just click on any number of the many other interviews if being on Macrovoices blacklists a guest in your book.
    • MP
      Máté P.
      27 November 2019 @ 13:21
      Real Vision, Hedgeye and Macrovoices should merge imo, creating THE ultimate retail financial media company with some extra services here and there. All 3 of you are just stepping on each others' toes if you want to expand services, getting into areas that the other does better. Real Vision is unbeatable in deep interviews, financial history, documentaries, think pieces. Macrovoices is great in breaking down and analyzing weekly market moves. Hedgeye is all about data based research and actionable advisory in my eyes. I see similar values and synergies all over the board plus strong characters that viewers/subscribers are attached to (Pal, Williams, McCullough, Dale, Townsend, Ceresna, etc. just to name a few). I've done some mergers, there's a very strong value proposition here. From a shareholder point of view, you could really step the game up and challenge mass financial media.
    • JM
      Jim M.
      27 November 2019 @ 14:35
      The criticism is legitimate. If this was an addition to the RV lineup it would be welcomed - a branch of RV Video, but it is not. Because we see these folks all over YOUTUBE, etc. it hurts to lose THINK TANK.
    • CL
      Chris L.
      27 November 2019 @ 15:07
      When it comes down to it, Real Vision is no different than other interview platforms. Hedgeye would stick out as a service because they actually provide tangible research people can utilize. Real Vision has effectively carved themselves out as a middle man, but like I've said on another video, I literally interact with these people on twitter; I watch their other interviews on other platforms. Big name players don't offer there content like they did when Real Vision first began because those providers don't what to dilute institutional clients who play tens-of-thousands per year. The vast majority of those on now are offering low-end (price point) retail products, and they use Real Vision as a marketing platform. Let my comment be as it may, but judging by the other comments, I'm not the only one. It's just become the who's who of FinTwit.
    • RD
      Ravi D.
      27 November 2019 @ 19:33
      agree. I find those interviews that Grant conducts more interesting. That's value add.
    • RD
      Ravi D.
      27 November 2019 @ 19:46
      This is just my opinion but I find most of the interviews on RV very similar as in they talk about the similar things, similar problems and to a large extent agree on the same view/thesis. Explanation are similar and at times are repeated or they rhyme with different interviewees, but more importantly and its a little concerning the views/thinking to a large extent is the same. what I am trying to say is it doesn't feel fresh. In recent interviews I haven't found anything that really provokes my thinking. I do miss Grant's interviews.. those interviews with edelweiss he did - that was value add!!! I am beginning to question my subscription at the moment.
  • dh
    david h.
    27 November 2019 @ 19:41
    very poor audio and worse video quality
  • NW
    Neev W.
    27 November 2019 @ 13:53
    Not a fan of Access- if its just going to be videos, why not publish those on realvision tv. Also crappy audio.
    • AP
      Antonio P.
      27 November 2019 @ 17:39
      absolutely!!!!
  • ag
    anthony g.
    27 November 2019 @ 14:14
    terrible audio.
  • PA
    Phillip A.
    27 November 2019 @ 13:36
    Great Interview. Like the way Louis thinks. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. It’s very difficult to predict the future? Thanks again.
  • PM
    Phil M.
    26 November 2019 @ 22:09
    Audio is awful
  • ly
    lena y.
    26 November 2019 @ 22:06
    Louis-Vincnet Gave has a view of China that is so different from other North American analysts because of his experience in China and his education. Really enjoy his thoughts!
  • GC
    George C.
    26 November 2019 @ 21:37
    Mr. Gave's perspective is always welcome and helpful. Interesting and engaging.
  • ii
    ida i.
    26 November 2019 @ 20:59
    Dear Real Vision, I was one of the first subscribers and I have read the comments below. in the beginning, you would put up videos when you had them. then for some reason you decided that it was necessary to increase quantity and put up videos everyday, and people who work don't have time to filter through and much less watch all those videos. Please go back to the original format that you had in the beginning, with one or two videos a week, it was fine
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    26 November 2019 @ 20:57
    Very good!
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    26 November 2019 @ 20:14
    Audio needs to improve. I struggle to hear and this is paid service so more effort needs to be done. In regards to Louis's views I may agree or not and is not relevant - what it matter is to hear another view point which can help me look at same subject from another angle.
  • IM
    Isabella M.
    26 November 2019 @ 16:25
    Raw footage sounds sexy, but this is a bit awful in quality. C'on : )
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    26 November 2019 @ 15:04
    And magically they appear when I post the last comment hmmm
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    26 November 2019 @ 14:38
    Horrendous quality - I cannot hear anything.. The change from Think Thank to Acess has ben terrible! Horrendous! I aked my money back but they create so many hurdles. I just asked to credit my credit card!
  • VW
    Voytek W.
    26 November 2019 @ 13:23
    Love the content but video takes forever to download, stops all the time, and is a terrible quality! No fast forward option on Audio either.
  • JF
    John F.
    26 November 2019 @ 12:53
    Audio=garbage. Wanted to listen but closed out and moved on after 2 minutes.
  • AB
    Adam B.
    26 November 2019 @ 11:17
    i dont know if he just wants to be contrarian or if he is really that ignorant of the mindset that Beijing takes with regards to governing.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    26 November 2019 @ 10:29
    Nice interview. What I am missing is a bit of a moral backbone. I understand you cannot make much money with a moral backbone but we are talking about a country run by a communist party for ***'s sake. It's a bit inconsistent to talk about sustainable and green investing that is so popular now while pumping money into an authoritarian regime.
  • tc
    t c.
    26 November 2019 @ 10:09
    After his Macrovoices interview last week in which he expressed a very poorly informed and misguided view of the situation in Hong Kong where he lives and works I find it hard to hit the play button but listening to Raul is always an education.
  • BL
    Bryn L.
    26 November 2019 @ 09:16
    Always enjoy listening to Raoul and Louis-Vincent, but please can we have a transcript to fill in all the gaps in audio please?
  • GE
    Glenn E.
    26 November 2019 @ 04:31
    I am no expert, but i think their is a third path for china. I believe the situation is similar to conditions described in the 1939 book the vampire economy. Just as in 1939 and today, there is a party to feed. As in the case of today oil and food are shortages which will drive could drive hostile actions.
  • MT
    Michael T.
    26 November 2019 @ 03:42
    "..thought the turnout would vote for pro government"
  • WF
    William F.
    26 November 2019 @ 01:21
    I agree that the interview was incisive however the audio quality was horrible which became a distraction. I assume I missed some key thoughts due to the audio.
  • SL
    Steven L.
    26 November 2019 @ 00:57
    Enjoyed the conversation and like Louis Macro-views. Poor audio quality detracted for video. Liked that Louis has a dog!