Real Vision Talks Time Horizons, Crypto Markets, and Wage Deflation

Your Real Vision Daily Briefing for October, 9th 2020

  • Raoul Pal is joined by Ash Bennington to look back at market action and make sense of several secular trends. Longer term time horizons in macro generate significantly higher returns over time but with more volatility.
  • The latest banning of crypto derivatives for amateur investors is good for the crypto space because a more regulated market will attract institutional money and enable price appreciation.
  • The deflationary effects of demographics, technology, and globalization are so great that we’re not really seeing the price of goods inflating, we’re seeing wages deflate.

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The equity market is clawing its way back up, but it still feels range-bound, so investors should stick to their core holdings and wait until we see a clearer risk-reward opportunity, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal said during today’s Daily Briefing.

Pal said these aren’t high quality markets to trade in right now, especially with so much uncertainty around the election and additional fiscal stimulus. But though they’re a bit untradeable at the moment, clarity and opportunity are on the way if investors are willing to wait.

“The real big opportunities you have to wait for,” Pal said. “You don’t always have to be in the market. If the risk-reward isn’t clear, then just wait.”

Pal said that with volatility crushing everybody and breakouts that don’t stick, it’s important to focus on the right time horizon for investments. He argued that longer term time horizons in macro generate significantly higher returns over time, albeit with more volatility.

Pal also discussed the latest news out of the crypto markets during the briefing. He said that the latest banning of crypto derivatives for amateur investors is good for the space because a more regulated market will attract institutional money and enable price appreciation.

They’re trying to make sure the public is relatively protected from very volatile leveraged assets, he said, and if you want pension funds to buy crypto, there has to be regulation.

Pal wrapped up the interview with his recent work around the idea that software is eating the world. His thesis is that the deflationary effects of demographics, technology, and globalization are so great that we’re not really seeing the price of goods inflating, we’re seeing wages deflate.

He’s looking at the purchasing power of wages versus the prices of assets, commodities, real estate, etc., and he believes that the 1980s through 2010s were a wage deflation environment, driven in large part by the rise of technology.

Technology is accelerating wage deflation and eating profit margins; it destroys and replaces anything with a high cost base, one after another, and it is not going to stop, he said.

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