Baby Bear’s Porridge Was Just Right

Published on: November 14th, 2020

A Biden Presidency and a Republican Senate; Covid vanquished by Pharma Boffins; geniuses at the Central Banks. What’s not to like? Julian indulges in a conceit before rounding out a short-term action plan. The next BIG trade will be rotation to value. But are we there yet or is Daddy Bear going to disturb Goldilocks?

Comments

  • JG
    Jack G.
    14 November 2020 @ 23:33
    Thank you Julian for the great piece. "Leaving aside the theatre of the Trump vote challenges, markets are now assuming Biden’s presidency will be confirmed. Anything else would shake the world to its foundations." Markets now making assumptions is very risky in today's world. What if the world is shaken to its foundations where shall we invest then?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 November 2020 @ 01:23
      Quite! We might be looking for safe havens outside of the US.
    • JG
      Jack G.
      19 November 2020 @ 00:53
      Thanks. Japan is very good bet
  • HM
    Harry M. | Real Vision
    18 November 2020 @ 15:42
    EWJ is the unhedged ETF which comes to mind. DXJ is the hedged ETF that comes to mind.
    • JW
      J W.
      18 November 2020 @ 18:06
      Don't think you can go wrong with either. Here is the comparison vs JPN: https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-comparison/JPN-vs-EWJ
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    18 November 2020 @ 05:38
    Great information, thank you Julian
  • FA
    Fadi A.
    15 November 2020 @ 18:57
    julian how do you buy the Nekkei in the US NTETF ?
    • DD
      Donal D.
      16 November 2020 @ 08:30
      From what I can see the largest etf's are EWJ and BBJF
    • JW
      J W.
      16 November 2020 @ 09:37
      If you look into the ETF database, there are quite a few apart from the ones mentioned (I think btw Donald meant BBJP and BBJF). There is JPN, JPXN, BBJP and FLJP, see https://www.etf.com/channels/japan-etfs
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 November 2020 @ 01:19
      Yes, there are quite a few ETFs. Im not sure which is the lowest cost. Nikkei futures are pretty chunky (ie big tick value).
    • CM
      Christopher M.
      17 November 2020 @ 04:18
      Besides cost, which, if any, best approximate the Nikkei 225? Julian's chart is of the 225 but I see a lot of ETFs are on the 400 and I don't see one for the 225.
    • JW
      J W.
      17 November 2020 @ 17:19
      @Christopher - NXKU has the Nikkei 225. I picked JPN because they have lowest costs plus it is used by the BoJ as a marker for Japanese equity investments. Just my two cents...
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    17 November 2020 @ 04:16
    How does one invest in the Nikkei 225 in the US? I'm having trouble finding an adequate ETF.
    • CM
      Christopher M.
      17 November 2020 @ 04:17
      Sorry I see Fadi already asked this same question.
  • km
    ken m.
    17 November 2020 @ 03:47
    Just a word of thanks for the clarity with which Julian lays out both his thinking and positions. That is exactly the kind of things that are helpful as I constantly monitor/adjust my own approach to the markets and exactly why I value Pro.
  • JW
    Jim W.
    16 November 2020 @ 14:01
    Julian, historically the Nikkei has had a strong correlation with dollar weakness vs the yen. Is this case the turning point, where both the yen and the Nikkei rise together?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 November 2020 @ 01:26
      The Japanese authorities definitely do not want a stronger yen. But the scenario of weak dollar and stronger foreign risk markets would be precisely the scenario that JB has been warning about - he terms it the end of the "US exceptionalism" trade. One of the big advantages of Nikkei, is that you are buying relatively cheap, stocks on value metrics.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    14 November 2020 @ 21:24
    Thanks Julian: Is there a reason why you're not playing the energy sector? Also is there a reason why you don't use options for your trades?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 November 2020 @ 01:23
      Answering on behalf of JB, so there is definitely some upside to energy, but it just isnt showing in charts right now. Quite an overhang of positions in oil cos of the carry. But clearly if cyclicals are turning then attention will eventually turn to the energy producers. Worth noting how well ESG/Green ideas have done recently. Maybe one should think about these issues when considering any plays in energy.
  • MK
    Mohit K.
    15 November 2020 @ 06:43
    julian sir i am from INDIA How i can play this(your new trade of nikkei) in INDIA?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 November 2020 @ 01:20
      My suggestion would be dollar based ETFs. There are some suggestions in the answer above.