In Focus Trade Portfolio – December 1, 2020

Published on: December 1st, 2020

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publications or Flash Update.


  • PC
    Paul C.
    29 December 2020 @ 16:54
    Hello New to Real Vision. Very impressive interview with Michael Saylor regarding Bitcoin. Over the years I ignored all the Bitcoin talk, now I buy to hold. I even bought a chunk of Microstrategy stock thinking , Microstrategy stock will rise along with Bitcoin. My thought was this was an indirect route to purchase more Bitcoin without the tax liability in a retirement account. Any thoughts?
  • KB
    KEVIN B.
    2 December 2020 @ 07:19
    Looks like Raoul has been right with Bitcoin and Ethereum and Galaxy Digital, The next twelve months should be in crypto....everything else is just peanuts!
    • SY
      Shiva Y.
      2 December 2020 @ 08:11
      As Raoul puts it, it's a collision of macro & crypto (Bitcoin).
    • KB
      KEVIN B.
      2 December 2020 @ 14:28
      12 months in crypto then rotate into Julians Asian Tigers- Emerging Markets, Precious Metals , Commodities with weak USD to follow
    • AG
      Alexander G.
      20 December 2020 @ 19:08
      Has Raoul talked about the highest price at which he would stop buying BTC?
  • SH
    Saito H.
    11 December 2020 @ 08:07
    Hi Real Vision and Raoul, could this be a real time page instead of issuing it once a month? So anytime we could click on the page and see the current positions as of the time we click.
  • DW
    Dean W.
    2 December 2020 @ 14:24
    I'm wondering what Raoul or Julian think about the marijuana etf MSOS. A guest that Tony Greer interviewed (can't recall his name) made a very compelling case that the time is ripe for the next few years for these multi-state enterprises to have sustained high growth but that they are currently value-priced.
    • Am
      Alex m.
      3 December 2020 @ 00:36
      Yes, very compelling interview but I know nothing of the space.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      7 December 2020 @ 13:08
      I will pass on the question.
  • Am
    Alex m.
    4 December 2020 @ 04:14
    Hello, I’m new to this service, is it normal case for trades added dates (Nikkei) to be so far out of sync with publications on the website?
    • Am
      Alex m.
      4 December 2020 @ 08:30
      Scrub that I found it a few reports ago :)
  • AA
    ALLEN A.
    1 December 2020 @ 20:27
    Are we still confident on the "buy TLT call Mar 170" whats the thought process on this?
    • OA
      Obai A.
      1 December 2020 @ 20:36
      I think more explanation needed here in terms of narratives and what events might trigger any of them!
    • Dd
      David d.
      1 December 2020 @ 20:37
      Raoul, If you are still confident in the "buy TLT call Mar 170" calls, do you recommend adding on days like today where the price was down from your buy price of 2.70 to 1.60. I added today... do you agree? Thank you.
    • BM
      Brent M.
      2 December 2020 @ 02:27
      I am in on the TLT calls as well and did double down when they hit $1.60. Julian's deep dive states a contradictory position on TLT, so this is a confusing one. Julian also made a comment about the government calling on Bitcoin in his Tiger deep dive. Julian, do you see that as a possibility within the next 12-18 months?
    • SY
      Shiva Y.
      2 December 2020 @ 03:12
      He reiterated his bullish thoughts in this flash update. But would nice to know if he thinks we can buy some TLT calls after the dip.
    • AA
      ALLEN A.
      2 December 2020 @ 06:19
      Hi Shiva, thanks for posting the flash update. (I'm still fairly new to macro....) The question for me is Raoul sticking with TLT because: - He thinks the Fed will move to negative interest rates by March. - Worsening economic situation in the first quarter will drive people to TLT, as COVID economic recovery is a year(s) off and the short term outlook for COVID infection rates in the U.S. is going parabolic in Dec/January. - U.S. Stimulus passes in the first quarter (not sure how that would play out for bonds, presumably that would increase supply, driving bond prices lower.) - Some spike in volatility (e.g. U.S. Presidential Transfer Jan 21 ) spooking the market into bonds.
    • Dd
      David d.
      2 December 2020 @ 16:07
      Raoul, please answer. TLT trade is very painful... are we staying the course??
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 December 2020 @ 18:22
      I chose call options in the TLT so you can have a lottery ticket sized bet. I still think this trade pays off but yesterdays move was a surprise. My thesis remains as per my last In Focus, that the economy is going to hit a weak patch globally and that is enough to turn bond yields lower. Everyone is all in on the reflation trade. I still like the trade but you shouldn't have more than a couple of % of NAV in a trade like this, until it starts working and breaks the trend line, then we can look to add. Generally speak, all trades, unless I say otherwise, should be approached with small tester positions first, see if it starts working properly and then adding. I usually make it clear as I have done with bitcoin as to when to take big risks.
    • DS
      Dwinanto S.
      3 December 2020 @ 07:52
      @Raoul is this the same with the unfolding? If yes, what indicator we should be watching out to understand if the hypothesis is still true. I've mentioned this in the past that often you and Julian contradict to one and another (I understand the value of both of your pov diversity & should not be mix or compared, but still can't help to understand each side pov, each of you build your investment idea) . In the update Julian is long on Nikkei (and aiming 38000, possible as there's no stop from technical analysis POV) our friend from hedgeye is also thinking the same, quad 2, dollar weakens. In my mind this contradict with your hypothesis: if it's correct we should see dollar strengthen, S&P decline thus Nikkei will also decline (historically have been strong correlation with S&P and usd/jpy) . Is there a way to reconcile the two thinking? Hopefully this will give better confident about TLT.
    • SY
      Shiva Y.
      3 December 2020 @ 16:23
      Can somebody please explain the relation b/w dollar strength (DXY) & TLT?
    • Dd
      David d.
      3 December 2020 @ 16:41
      Raoul, Thank you for responding to the questions about our TLT position.
    • DS
      Dwinanto S.
      4 December 2020 @ 03:32
      @Shiva: look at Steven van Metre videos, he helps to breakdown Raoul's unfolding and he has a lot of videos educating around macro.
  • JS
    Joe S.
    2 December 2020 @ 15:23
    Good morning, curious on galaxy digital, still viable as call on sector ? RP still long ?
    • JS
      Joe S.
      2 December 2020 @ 15:29
      Excuse me , I see position closed.
  • AA
    ALLEN A.
    2 December 2020 @ 06:18
    Hi Shiva, thanks for posting the flash update. (I'm still fairly new to macro....) The question for me is Raoul sticking with TLT because: - He thinks the Fed will move to negative interest rates by March. - Worsening economic situation in the first quarter will drive people to TLT, as COVID economic recovery is a year(s) off and the short term outlook for COVID infection rates in the U.S. is going parabolic in Dec/January. - U.S. Stimulus passes in the first quarter (not sure how that would play out for bonds, presumably that would increase supply, driving bond prices lower.) - Some spike in volatility (e.g. U.S. Presidential Transfer Jan 21 ) spooking the market into bonds.
    • AA
      ALLEN A.
      2 December 2020 @ 06:20
      doh! there's no way to delete comments?
    • SY
      Shiva Y.
      2 December 2020 @ 08:10
      Thanks Allen! You summarised Raoul's thesis quite well. I'm also very new to macro. Even though covid vaccine has created hope in economy recovery, the problem is too deep for that. As Raoul says, whatever the Fed does, people are not coming out & spending. There will not be inflation soon. So we will say even more fiscal/monetary stimulus which reduces the yields. Hope my take is not far off :)
    • SG
      Soros G.
      2 December 2020 @ 14:31
      I would be very careful with assumptions about when people are going out to spend. In China the lockdowns were quite short but the moment they were suspended, spending was back to quite a decent level and people returned to the malls (still with temperature checks)... Even if Raoul kept repeating some 1 month expired observation about traffic levels. Now.. With Western countries affected for much longer and with a different cultural background (just how hard was it to lock down?), I can imagine how fast this will be. I have a feeling that people won't even wait for the population to be vaccinated to a high enough level... Not sure how this affects markets, just one observation on the many assumptions that make up a story.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.