In Focus Trade Portfolio – December 1, 2020

Published on: December 1st, 2020

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publications or Flash Update.

Comments

  • PC
    Paul C.
    29 December 2020 @ 16:54
    Hello New to Real Vision. Very impressive interview with Michael Saylor regarding Bitcoin. Over the years I ignored all the Bitcoin talk, now I buy to hold. I even bought a chunk of Microstrategy stock thinking , Microstrategy stock will rise along with Bitcoin. My thought was this was an indirect route to purchase more Bitcoin without the tax liability in a retirement account. Any thoughts?
  • KB
    KEVIN B.
    2 December 2020 @ 07:19
    Looks like Raoul has been right with Bitcoin and Ethereum and Galaxy Digital, The next twelve months should be in crypto....everything else is just peanuts!
    • SY
      Shiva Y.
      2 December 2020 @ 08:11
      As Raoul puts it, it's a collision of macro & crypto (Bitcoin).
    • KB
      KEVIN B.
      2 December 2020 @ 14:28
      12 months in crypto then rotate into Julians Asian Tigers- Emerging Markets, Precious Metals , Commodities with weak USD to follow
    • AG
      Alexander G.
      20 December 2020 @ 19:08
      Has Raoul talked about the highest price at which he would stop buying BTC?
  • SH
    Saito H.
    11 December 2020 @ 08:07
    Hi Real Vision and Raoul, could this be a real time page instead of issuing it once a month? So anytime we could click on the page and see the current positions as of the time we click.
  • DW
    Dean W.
    2 December 2020 @ 14:24
    I'm wondering what Raoul or Julian think about the marijuana etf MSOS. A guest that Tony Greer interviewed (can't recall his name) made a very compelling case that the time is ripe for the next few years for these multi-state enterprises to have sustained high growth but that they are currently value-priced.
    • Am
      Alex m.
      3 December 2020 @ 00:36
      Yes, very compelling interview but I know nothing of the space.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      7 December 2020 @ 13:08
      I will pass on the question.
  • Am
    Alex m.
    4 December 2020 @ 04:14
    Hello, I’m new to this service, is it normal case for trades added dates (Nikkei) to be so far out of sync with publications on the website?
    • Am
      Alex m.
      4 December 2020 @ 08:30
      Scrub that I found it a few reports ago :)
  • AA
    ALLEN A.
    1 December 2020 @ 20:27
    Are we still confident on the "buy TLT call Mar 170" whats the thought process on this?
    • OA
      Obai A.
      1 December 2020 @ 20:36
      I think more explanation needed here in terms of narratives and what events might trigger any of them!
    • Dd
      David d.
      1 December 2020 @ 20:37
      Raoul, If you are still confident in the "buy TLT call Mar 170" calls, do you recommend adding on days like today where the price was down from your buy price of 2.70 to 1.60. I added today... do you agree? Thank you.
    • BM
      Brent M.
      2 December 2020 @ 02:27
      I am in on the TLT calls as well and did double down when they hit $1.60. Julian's deep dive states a contradictory position on TLT, so this is a confusing one. Julian also made a comment about the government calling on Bitcoin in his Tiger deep dive. Julian, do you see that as a possibility within the next 12-18 months?
    • SY
      Shiva Y.
      2 December 2020 @ 03:12
      He reiterated his bullish thoughts in this flash update. But would nice to know if he thinks we can buy some TLT calls after the dip. https://www.realvision.com/shows/insider-talks/videos/irresponsibly-longer-flash-update-november-30-2020
    • AA
      ALLEN A.
      2 December 2020 @ 06:19
      Hi Shiva, thanks for posting the flash update. (I'm still fairly new to macro....) The question for me is Raoul sticking with TLT because: - He thinks the Fed will move to negative interest rates by March. - Worsening economic situation in the first quarter will drive people to TLT, as COVID economic recovery is a year(s) off and the short term outlook for COVID infection rates in the U.S. is going parabolic in Dec/January. - U.S. Stimulus passes in the first quarter (not sure how that would play out for bonds, presumably that would increase supply, driving bond prices lower.) - Some spike in volatility (e.g. U.S. Presidential Transfer Jan 21 ) spooking the market into bonds.
    • Dd
      David d.
      2 December 2020 @ 16:07
      Raoul, please answer. TLT trade is very painful... are we staying the course??
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 December 2020 @ 18:22
      I chose call options in the TLT so you can have a lottery ticket sized bet. I still think this trade pays off but yesterdays move was a surprise. My thesis remains as per my last In Focus, that the economy is going to hit a weak patch globally and that is enough to turn bond yields lower. Everyone is all in on the reflation trade. I still like the trade but you shouldn't have more than a couple of % of NAV in a trade like this, until it starts working and breaks the trend line, then we can look to add. Generally speak, all trades, unless I say otherwise, should be approached with small tester positions first, see if it starts working properly and then adding. I usually make it clear as I have done with bitcoin as to when to take big risks.
    • DS
      Dwinanto S.
      3 December 2020 @ 07:52
      @Raoul is this the same with the unfolding? If yes, what indicator we should be watching out to understand if the hypothesis is still true. I've mentioned this in the past that often you and Julian contradict to one and another (I understand the value of both of your pov diversity & should not be mix or compared, but still can't help to understand each side pov, each of you build your investment idea) . In the update Julian is long on Nikkei (and aiming 38000, possible as there's no stop from technical analysis POV) our friend from hedgeye is also thinking the same, quad 2, dollar weakens. In my mind this contradict with your hypothesis: if it's correct we should see dollar strengthen, S&P decline thus Nikkei will also decline (historically have been strong correlation with S&P and usd/jpy) . Is there a way to reconcile the two thinking? Hopefully this will give better confident about TLT.
    • SY
      Shiva Y.
      3 December 2020 @ 16:23
      Can somebody please explain the relation b/w dollar strength (DXY) & TLT?
    • Dd
      David d.
      3 December 2020 @ 16:41
      Raoul, Thank you for responding to the questions about our TLT position.
    • DS
      Dwinanto S.
      4 December 2020 @ 03:32
      @Shiva: look at Steven van Metre videos, he helps to breakdown Raoul's unfolding and he has a lot of videos educating around macro.
  • JS
    Joe S.
    2 December 2020 @ 15:23
    Good morning, curious on galaxy digital, still viable as call on sector ? RP still long ?
    • JS
      Joe S.
      2 December 2020 @ 15:29
      Excuse me , I see position closed.
  • AA
    ALLEN A.
    2 December 2020 @ 06:18
    Hi Shiva, thanks for posting the flash update. (I'm still fairly new to macro....) The question for me is Raoul sticking with TLT because: - He thinks the Fed will move to negative interest rates by March. - Worsening economic situation in the first quarter will drive people to TLT, as COVID economic recovery is a year(s) off and the short term outlook for COVID infection rates in the U.S. is going parabolic in Dec/January. - U.S. Stimulus passes in the first quarter (not sure how that would play out for bonds, presumably that would increase supply, driving bond prices lower.) - Some spike in volatility (e.g. U.S. Presidential Transfer Jan 21 ) spooking the market into bonds.
    • AA
      ALLEN A.
      2 December 2020 @ 06:20
      doh! there's no way to delete comments?
    • SY
      Shiva Y.
      2 December 2020 @ 08:10
      Thanks Allen! You summarised Raoul's thesis quite well. I'm also very new to macro. Even though covid vaccine has created hope in economy recovery, the problem is too deep for that. As Raoul says, whatever the Fed does, people are not coming out & spending. There will not be inflation soon. So we will say even more fiscal/monetary stimulus which reduces the yields. Hope my take is not far off :)
    • AI
      Andras I.
      2 December 2020 @ 14:31
      I would be very careful with assumptions about when people are going out to spend. In China the lockdowns were quite short but the moment they were suspended, spending was back to quite a decent level and people returned to the malls (still with temperature checks)... Even if Raoul kept repeating some 1 month expired observation about traffic levels. Now.. With Western countries affected for much longer and with a different cultural background (just how hard was it to lock down?), I can imagine how fast this will be. I have a feeling that people won't even wait for the population to be vaccinated to a high enough level... Not sure how this affects markets, just one observation on the many assumptions that make up a story.