Pro Macro: Deep Dive – The Macro Set Up

Published on: February 23rd, 2022

Macro turning points are where we make all the money. Macro turning points that give us the entry into secular long-term trends are a true gift. Inflation will collapse back to the demographic trend as a slowdown drags us towards recession. As yield curves flatten and bonds rally the Fed will pause and trigger the next wave of all my Exponential Age themes.

Comments

  • SV
    Sreenivas V.
    23 February 2022 @ 22:52
    0 0
    How do we buy Scottish Mortgage
    • sj
      samir j.
      24 February 2022 @ 22:30
      0 0
      Raoul do we start buying or wait? Today was a good day to buy seems like but I was waiting for your confirmation
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      24 February 2022 @ 01:52
      0 0
      SMT listed in London
  • JE
    Jonathan E.
    24 February 2022 @ 12:15
    0 0
    Thank you Raoul very thought provoking. A number of commentators are forecasting a 2nd wave of inflation driven by higher commodity / input prices from 2024 (post the coming expected slow down / recessionary period) and lasting for the balance of the decade. Felix Zulauf for example seeing CPI as high as 10% in 2024. Any thoughts on this scenario?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      24 February 2022 @ 19:30
      0 0
      Too far out for me at this point> I'd like to deal with what's on deck for the next 12 months.
  • JJ
    JW2 J.
    24 February 2022 @ 15:50
    0 0
    Where did SMT suddenly come from? Never heard Raoul talk about it afaik, nor was it mentioned in January GMI. To my shame I never heard about them so I went and looked at their website. Quite an impressive fund with global reach in most if not all markets - so we are buying the world with this recommendation. It's certainly well off its highs and looking a the chart has probably (likely ?) more downside to come so entry point tbd.
  • DH
    David H.
    24 February 2022 @ 20:32
    0 0
    If I understand correctly it is anticipated that the best bang for the buck in treasuries will be the ten year bonds. Why not the 30 year? What is the best ETF to capture this opportunity in the 10 years. I assume TLT is best for the longer duration bonds.
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    24 February 2022 @ 21:01
    0 0
    Thanks Raoul, well laid out case. To be clear, are you recommending the "wish list" trades right now? Or only the crypto and $, since you mention you will wait for "final confirmation" on equities/bonds in a few weeks?
  • sj
    samir j.
    24 February 2022 @ 22:30
    1 1
    Raoul do we start buying or wait? Today was a good day to buy seems like but I was waiting for your confirmation
  • JJ
    JW2 J.
    25 February 2022 @ 12:54
    1 0
    Essential companion to the view positioned here is the interview with KS, https://www.realvision.com/shows/raoul-pal-the-journey-man/videos/kirils-big-picture-view