Pro Macro: In Focus – Fed Up With The Fed

Published on: March 13th, 2023

The Muppet Show that the Fed has become is nevertheless compulsory viewing. The next instalment will be on your screens on 23rd March. Post SVB, whether they dive into policy error territory or communicate opportunistic disinflation through the Dot Plot, will set the tone for Q2 after the current hiatus has been resolved. Below some thoughts.

Comments

  • YC
    Yi C.
    13 March 2023 @ 21:48
    0 0
    Didn't the SOFR spread trade get stopped out at -1.60 as the price traded below -1.61 at some point?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      14 March 2023 @ 18:12
      0 0
      Intraday yes. It was precisely because of the speed which this can move at that JB left a resting order to sell at 75bps. But the chart is in the report and makes it all very clear, If quite depressing if you got chopped out at 1.61
    • JL
      J L.
      13 March 2023 @ 22:02
      0 0
      all stops in the JB portfolio are tracked on a closing basis
    • YC
      Yi C.
      13 March 2023 @ 21:49
      0 0
      Great trade regardless!
  • JM
    John M.
    13 March 2023 @ 21:55
    0 0
    Well called once again...
  • MA
    Muhammad A.
    13 March 2023 @ 22:36
    0 0
    That SOFR trade was so good and I got stopped out at -1.60 and for the first time I was disciplined and it might be the biggest regret I have to date. I can't believe I chose to stick to the stop at the worst possible time. Hurts so bad
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      14 March 2023 @ 18:08
      0 0
      Im so sorry to hear that. Really sorry. I know exactly what you mean and its happened to me too.
  • DP
    Don P.
    14 March 2023 @ 01:52
    0 0
    So target reached on SFRZ3Z4 means the trade is closed?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      14 March 2023 @ 18:07
      0 0
      Yes JB closed it. Feel free to trailing stop it or anything else you think is appropriate. But it hit the 75bp target. In fact I think it trades as low as 60bps.
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    14 March 2023 @ 02:19
    0 0
    Anyone else confused by the conclusion? He said book the profit in the main article and then starts talking about only take 1/3 in the conclusion.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      14 March 2023 @ 18:06
      0 0
      That was an error. It should have been amended. In JBs defense, take a look at the price chart of SFRZ3Z4 yesterday. The thing was absolutely flying around!
    • JL
      J L.
      14 March 2023 @ 12:05
      0 0
      I think you can consider it an alternative suggestion, for tracking purposes the trade is closed at 75, but if you still have some on might consider a trailing stop. Personally took 2/3 off at 75 and was going to let 1/3 run to 50 but ended up closing the rest manually at 70 with the massive daily candle (think the crypto folk call these dildo?) looking like it might be a bit of a squeeze. Sure enough the spread closed sub 50 a few hours later
    • MW
      Matthew W.
      14 March 2023 @ 02:21
      0 0
      About sofr trade i mean. In any case i bagged it once it blew past target today :)
  • JL
    John L.
    14 March 2023 @ 02:29
    0 0
    How are we supposed to enter gold at 1880
  • AA
    Alo A.
    14 March 2023 @ 09:00
    0 0
    Why the SVB did not pledge their T-bond holdings to get necessary liquidity (repo transaction)? Is it somehow related to HTM classification of available portfolio? I.e. it's not allowed to pledge HTM securities? Something what is now offered to every other market participant in the form of BTFP...
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      14 March 2023 @ 18:04
      0 0
      Yes. HTM securities were not available for repo financing. However when they sold some of the HTM position it forced revaluation of entire position. One might question the competence of management.
  • KH
    Kavi H.
    14 March 2023 @ 11:08
    1 0
    Excellent trade on SFRZ3Z4 Julian thanks!
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    14 March 2023 @ 18:07
    1 0
    what are the gold calls on? GLD? futures?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      14 March 2023 @ 19:11
      1 0
      Futures Buy October 2200 Calls (26th Sept 2023 expiry) at $25. Target $60+. Stop if spot trades below 1785 or ~$12.5.