The Macro Shift Is Underway

Published on: July 19th, 2021

Raoul has been writing about the impending slowdown for a few months. It is now upon us, and opportunity lies ahead…

Comments

  • OD
    Oliver D.
    20 July 2021 @ 06:48
    Hi Raoul, which contract are we looking for. Dec21?
    • TC
      Tascha C.
      20 July 2021 @ 21:08
      Second this question. Raoul are you looking at Sept, Oct or Dec contract? Sept / Oct already break 1.18. Dec not yet.
    • ES
      Ediz S.
      21 July 2021 @ 09:24
      I would look at the most liquid contract, which is the Sept
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    21 July 2021 @ 05:16
    https://twitter.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1417406054661513233?s=08 HI Raoul would love to have your opinion on this. Thank you
  • SM
    Sean M.
    20 July 2021 @ 22:13
    Just a note that CME has a mini euro contract 1/10 the size of the big one, /M6E
  • GP
    Gregory P.
    19 July 2021 @ 21:13
    Hi Raul, just a point on the delta variant. It's affecting vaccinated countries too! Cheers, Greg
    • JH
      John H.
      20 July 2021 @ 07:25
      There are no “Vaccinated countries.” Only vaccinated people.
    • JH
      John H.
      20 July 2021 @ 07:25
      There are no “Vaccinated countries.” Only vaccinated people.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    19 July 2021 @ 22:11
    Hi Raoul, "I think the back three to four months of the year will be a great time for crypto.". Why do you think so? is it primarily about your prediction of another surge of QE/fed balance sheet increase within weeks?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 July 2021 @ 00:42
      Ive written a huge amount about this over the last 6 months
    • JM
      Jake M.
      20 July 2021 @ 04:34
      Hi Raoul, thanks for the reply, To elaborate more on my question, what do you think would be the top fundamental drivers for recovery in crypto later in the year? In insider talks, you said 1) more fed intervention relatively) and 2) etf. Are you expecting either or both to happen then later in the year?
  • Yc
    Ying c.
    20 July 2021 @ 02:38
    Raoul, Why you choose EURUSD? Why not other pairs like AUD or CAD?
  • TH
    Tamas H.
    20 July 2021 @ 02:29
    Thanks Raoul. This was a really good and easy read. Loved the analysis.
  • ji
    joe i.
    19 July 2021 @ 21:31
    Raoul In your opinion how low do you see a final panic low can go in BTC & ETH please?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 July 2021 @ 00:42
      25k max
  • JF
    James F.
    19 July 2021 @ 22:17
    Thanks Raoul, With regards to the Euro closing below 1.18, do you mean the daily close? As it is right now?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 July 2021 @ 00:41
      yes
  • GP
    Gregory P.
    19 July 2021 @ 21:51
    Just following up on the Covid cases in vaccinated countries. This is a worrying trend. As an example: https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/worrying-me-quite-bit-mrna-vaccine-inventor-shares-viral-thread-showing-covid-surge-most - I think we have a bigger storm brewing as we head towards the end of the year. From what I've read and researched, and this zero hedge article is just one example, I'm not sure this vaccine will solve the Covid problem, which means Raoul's thesis is likely to get a lot worse! I wonder if the FED will be able to save the day if this really becomes a horror show.
  • RF
    Ryan F.
    19 July 2021 @ 19:05
    Timeframe?
    • MD
      Mike D.
      19 July 2021 @ 20:04
      Later in the document Raoul sets an expectation of "this year", or "the coming 4 to 6 months"
    • MD
      Mike D.
      19 July 2021 @ 20:09
      Clarifying my earlier comment: the timeframe mentioned was stated in context of crypto, and not the Euro trade. I guess my long Bitcoin bias is showing here :)
    • RF
      Ryan F.
      19 July 2021 @ 20:19
      Just trying to clarify... Sounds like Euro trade timeframe may work relatively quickly ~1-2months in conjunction with risk off in equity markets? Then FED "comes to the rescue" once again and the buy crypto/tech trade comes back into play sometime in Sept-Dec?
  • MD
    Mike D.
    19 July 2021 @ 20:06
    @Raoul - Bravo! As distinct from recommendations a couple of years ago, this set is clear on rough recommended position sizing, potential upside, stop level, and investment vehicles. Much more digestible, without guesswork. Thank you.
  • ji
    joe i.
    19 July 2021 @ 18:05
    "creating a final panic low. I just don’t know, but I do know that if the stock market falls 15% or more, the Fed will step in and risk assets will fly with crypto and tech stocks leading the charge. I think the back three to four months of the year will be a great time for crypto." AGREE - Thanks for the validation!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 July 2021 @ 18:09
      No problem
  • MS
    Mark S.
    19 July 2021 @ 17:34
    Hi Raoul, great thanks. I've been watching this for a while since you highlighted it some time ago. My eurusd line in the sand was 1.177. Curious to know why you picked 1.18 as opposed to a close below 1.177 or slightly lower. Depending on the trendline drawn, one could wait until lower. Is it in part because of the bond price action and that other currencies appear to be rolling as well that you are comfortable with 1.18? thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 July 2021 @ 18:04
      Its just where my line is...but choose your own...