Don’t tell Julian…

Published on: April 21st, 2018

Raoul thinks that US Bonds are getting close to a buying opportunity. He also updates us on a few of his trades…

Comments

  • DY
    Dmytro Y.
    17 May 2018 @ 05:25
    Hi Raoul, I just shorted TLT on the advise from Julian :) Jokes apart, rates are 3.10 today. it broke out of the trend line. are you changing your view on this advise about rates (probably not, seeing your Demographics view and video on RT)
  • JJ
    Jay J.
    15 May 2018 @ 21:22
    Raoul, Did spike in yields today change your thoughts on this set up...The 10-yr. jumped about it's previous high in 2014, so does this invalidate this trade idea for you?
  • CY
    C Y.
    24 April 2018 @ 14:24
    I loved this piece. I've been waiting for you to take a crack at Julian as you've held your tongue in conversations between the two of you. I love the idea of a back and forth dialogue even when you don't agree.
  • RP
    Roberto P.
    23 April 2018 @ 20:44
    Raoul, I think a missing fact in your analysis for GT10 going higher is USD weakness. When Trump got elected USD and GT10 went up breaking the pattern USD up GT10 down because higher USD was deflationary. (So ttrong economy was priced in at that moment). Then in the first half of 2017 we saw core PCE going down, so USD fell and rate fell. (Deflation again in the market). But after a little bounce in USD, in october 2017 begun another leg down for USD, but this time rates went up. My point is that global market are concern about US fiscal deficit and are avoiding USD despite record diferential rate between US and Europe or US and Japan, This would lead to more USD weakness, higher US rates and higher commodities prices without necesserily have wage increases. I think a more stagflationary outlook.
    • CY
      C Y.
      24 April 2018 @ 14:23
      Roberto I have no opinion on USD but as a trader I can tell you that at the end of this month for the very first time since early 2017 I'm finally buying the USD. I'm a rules based investor which I think helps one avoid getting glued to one's opinions. Just a thought that what has been occuring might be coming to an end with dollar weakness.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    23 April 2018 @ 11:59
    LMAO love the title!
  • MW
    Marco W.
    22 April 2018 @ 03:01
    Very likely Julian and you are both right. Bond yield surge past 3% towards 3.5% in Q2 then reverse to 2% in recession. Starting this year secularly it is "every nation for itself", the deflationary effect from technology and globalisation will reverse and go into secular decline. Less deflation will benefit the elderly (i.e. savers). The demographics secular deflationary trend will decrease (if not reverse). Probably secularly the bond bear market has started.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 April 2018 @ 11:19
      Yes, I was being cheeky but that is a scenario that we would both agree on.
  • CS
    C S.
    22 April 2018 @ 12:23
    Not wanting to seem a 'gold bug', and also not wanting to imply there might be more not to tell Julian about than first meets the eye, but how would you expect gold to fair given the above scenario, Raoul? Is the market shorter 5 year Treasuries, or 20+ year Treasuries, and does this matter?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 April 2018 @ 11:18
      Gold will eventually do well. It just requires a weak dollar and a weak economy. I used 5 yrs because the 20+ is mixed in with a lot of curve bets so it confused the picture.
  • JB
    Jason B.
    22 April 2018 @ 20:02
    Raoul, while the ISM has just started to tick downwards, Jeff Gundlach showed a pretty good correlation with the ISM leading CPI by 18 months. If that pattern holds, we would see CPI rise for the next year and then tick down like the ISM is now. I'd be very curious to know your thought process there. Thanks, Jason
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      23 April 2018 @ 11:17
      The point being is that it is expect and thus mainly in the price.
  • BR
    Bernard R.
    21 April 2018 @ 21:02
    So Julian is right...until yields approach 2013's high which on the UST 30 yr were 3.974%... Last Friday the UST 30yr reached 3.147%...so we still have a lot of work on the downside before reaching that target. Then heck yes...I agree with Raoul that a quasi 4% on a 30 yr UST could be the opportunity of a lifetime. I am pretty sure that even Julian will agree with that. Yes I would love to buy TLT around its 2013 low of 102ish. You guys are GREAT! Thanks for your fantastic hards work!
    • BR
      Bernard R.
      22 April 2018 @ 12:47
      Oil prices might be the key to the next major turn in UST prices. Combine reports that the glut is not as bad as it was as oil tanker storage is reduced and most importantly ...the timing of the Aramco IPO. If oil prices starts to drive inflation/UST prices, then the Aramco IPO might become a turning point and a buying opportunity for bonds.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    22 April 2018 @ 00:00
    I don't think you can say the ISM has topped out just yet, it's too early to tell, you've only had one print lower than the last, and historically it can go higher. The Prices component is still rising and can continue to do so for quite a while after the ISM tops out if you overlay the Prices component on top of the ISM itself over the past few decades. Oil is also continuing to rise with its inherent inflationary pressures across the board (as we head into the US driving season). And look at the price of Lumber - huge inflationary cost for housebuilders, and its still going up with no sign of any change of trend (yet). Don't get me wrong, you could well be right, but (IMHO) I believe the inflation story could easily run for a few more months before any potential change because as you say inflation is a lagging indicator. My own personal conclusion is, I think Julian is right for the next couple of months, and then you could well be right thereafter. I personally feel there is the potential for a sharp spike in yields before we get any reversal just to wrong foot the market. As you often say, it's all about your time horizon. Would be interested in any updated views on USD and Gold - as according to Peter Brandt, gold is at a very important inflexion point, plus Silver could be about to break higher.
  • GM
    Gerald M.
    21 April 2018 @ 21:06
    What happened to the update on open trades as stated in the opening comments? Please don't leave us hanging. Regarding bonds, this piece is a very convincing argument. Timing is critical though. Raoul has been looking for yields to fall since his Eurodollar recommendation which hasn't worked. Is this time different? It's had to tell. We have two smart people with opposite views leaving us subscribers to wander in between. ~\( '-' )/~
  • TA
    The A.
    21 April 2018 @ 15:57
    Regarding positioning, as someone put it on twitter: "This is why I can ignore speculative positioning. There have been $2 Trillion of inflows into fixed income mutual funds over the last 10 years. That dwarfs the $33 Billion in net notional speculative shorts in the 10 year contract." I think it is also very telling that yields didn't decline during the 10% stock market correction. This is the first time since the gfc that yields aren't acting as a safe haven.
    • TA
      The A.
      21 April 2018 @ 16:24
      I went back and checked the chart of the us household allocation to bonds that Raoul used in a piece last year to suggest positioning is low. According to that chart it is indeed low, however, during the late '60s and '70s, positioning was even lower, and we all know what happened to yields in that period.
    • TA
      The A.
      21 April 2018 @ 17:17
      Also, if you look at the chart Raoul uses on positioning of fund managers, it seems useless. They were extremely underweight bonds for three (!) years before the gfc.
    • TA
      The A.
      21 April 2018 @ 17:27
      But in these years before the gfc we didn't have the DeMark top signals, and we do have them now. I agree we are at a critical juncture and I am looking forward to see how this is going to play out. Thanks Raoul for the piece Raoul.
  • RI
    R I.
    21 April 2018 @ 15:11
    The first page indicates that Raoul would update us on a few of his trades; this report is lacking there so perhaps that was just an editorial error. More importantly, how would a stagflationary outlook (CPI to exceed expectations; GDP to miss expectations) over the remainder of the year change your view (if at all) regarding lower yields in 2H18?
  • SA
    Said A.
    21 April 2018 @ 11:22
    Flawless

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

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SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

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MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

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Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

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TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

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What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

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Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

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Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

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Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

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CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

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