Pro Macro: Deep Dive – Economic ‘Long Covid’?

Published on: May 27th, 2022

Diving into the latest Covid academic research to get an insight into how quickly inflation may return to trend, the answers were disturbing. Even if the pandemic is no longer as deadly, labour supply and fiscal policy across the West will continue to suffer from economic ‘Long Covid’ for some time to come.


  • JK
    James K.
    27 May 2022 @ 17:06
    Gee Julian ….just what I needed, before a 3 day weekend ….kidding, kidding …. Thanks for the heads-up ….Best
  • YC
    Yi C.
    27 May 2022 @ 17:55
    This is a very well researched piece on Covid's impact on labor participation. On the other hand, can we also explore the behavioral changes from COVID with regarding to consumptions? It seems to be reduced labor participation and consumption can cause an uncertain effect on inflation? Would this cause a tight labor market and a low inflation environment if Long Covid becomes more dominant?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      31 May 2022 @ 21:15
      Yes, both those are logical inferences but so many other factors might feed into it its very difficult to say. Lower production and higher healthcare costs might well cause higher inflation overall, despite lower consumer demand for some services.
  • WM
    William M.
    27 May 2022 @ 19:49
    I think we need to be careful about long covid data at this point. That CDC study details information that is "self reported". It is not unreasonable to assume that many reporting symptoms are not really experiencing covid symptoms but other symptoms from other non descriptive reasons. Additionally I understand the definition of symptoms was from folks reporting issues after just 4 weeks for experiencing covid. Seems quite short given that viral infections can "carry" symptoms well past 4 weeks. I further note that the equivalent UK study ( has a figure closely to 2.5% of covid sufferers having long covid symptoms. Whatever you want to prove on covid or its treatment, there is a study to support it. I don't see covid as being a major issue for the economy, except for maybe one last wave to force mask wearing again. The major issue is the DEBT and the coming financial reset. Nothing else really matters.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      31 May 2022 @ 21:13
      I just had a look at your UK government link (very kind of you!). "An estimated 1.8 million people in private households (2.8% of the population) were experiencing self-reported long COVID as of 3 April 2022. Of those, almost three-quarters (73%) reported experiencing long COVID symptoms at least 12 weeks after first having (suspected) COVID-19, and almost half (44%) at least one year after their first (suspected) infection. " I read this as currently sick with "Long Covid".
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      31 May 2022 @ 21:08
      Agreed. But there do seem to be missing workers, and its quite hard to explain why they dont want to go to work. But totally agree, its too early to do more than read the papers that emerge and speculate on whether they capture important features. That said, I have no personal doubts that people believe their health is impaired, even if they are self reporting and we often cant find anything which explains their symptoms.
  • jG
    james G.
    27 May 2022 @ 20:41
    Julian. you pretty much just trashed 100 years of cumulative knowledge on immunology and virology. I have absolutely no doubt that whatever it is you are calling "long covid" is closely tied to the 40% increase in overall death rates of working age adults 16 - 65 . The question for science is what is causing that? Good luck getting accurate data from government sources. That pot is stirred up a totally screwed. In many places "Unvaxxed" is anyone who's last jab was over 6 months ago. So. Is it the virus or is it Vax thats causing all of this? Is it both? You can have a really shitty virus and a really shitty treatment that makes it worse. please spend the time and watch two professional doctors of ( virology and immunology) testify in the TN senate. it's 40 minutes but it will make you rethink .. speed it up if you are in a hurry. I think your report is important in that it shows we have a problem The economy will take an awful hit. If the current vax jab has contributed to this then it's all going to get a lot worse in a few months when they tell you to go get anther one. ---- furthermore if your scenario does play out with much lower productivity and a very unhealthy population ( and I think you are right ) how do we protect ourselves financially? What do we buy? or are we all just basically fucked at this point? Before I get called an antivaxx tin foil hatter. I went to sea in the early 70's so I am like a goddamned pin cushion and I actually had a little vaccine passport book that was inspected at all the fun places with the wildest diseases.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      31 May 2022 @ 21:04
      Re what to buy, well its not bullish for government debt. Its not particularly bullish equities either. I suppose inflation indexed debt is better, and I suppose it might end up being good for precious metals. I am pretty sure that JB has concerns about the possibility of VAX (and MRNA tech) related problems. But its one of those situations where we have to wait for scientists to publish papers which shed light, and so far there is only speculation that there might be a problem.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      31 May 2022 @ 21:00
      I would hope Julian didnt trash established science on immunology and virology. But otherwise I think all your comments echo JBs concerns. Its a very sensitive subject and he isn't a virologist. However Mike Taylor is, and my understanding is the next Insider Talks will feature JB and Mike Taylor discussing whats happening in markets. Hopefully they can touch on this subject.
    • JS
      John S.
      27 May 2022 @ 22:57
      Geert vanden Bossche makes a compelling case that the mass vaccination program is causing a huge problem by making the population's immune systems vulnerable to a virus that is evolving rapidly due to pressure from the vaccines. Heavily vaccinated countries could be in for a torrid time. I have been contemplating positioning in healthcare stocks (ex the vax cos that will be sued into oblivion when their criminally negligent is further exposed - see Ed Dowd). They will benefit from widespread health problems suffered by millions with compromised immune systems as a result of multiple and ongoing jabs
  • NR
    Nathaniel R.
    28 May 2022 @ 13:53
    Was this report put out by the Disinformation Governance Board or real vision? “Severity of infection seems to increase with the number of infections” This headline is contradictory to everything I have seen with my own eyes and personally experienced in the last two plus years. Myself and my family have all had Covid 3 times and it became exponentially less severe each time. Re-infection was between a year and 6 months apart. The second infection was similar to a cold and the third was less severe than any cold I’ve had in the last ten years. We live in a country that never had any travel restrictions and low vaccine uptake. All our friends and acquaintances have had similar experiences to ours. The entire healthcare industry has been categorically captured by private interests, from medical journals to the public health regulators. In this environment it would do you and thus your readers some good to confirm the “data” you are relying on to create your framework with the anecdotal evidence that people are actually experiencing in the real world.
  • DW
    Dean W.
    28 May 2022 @ 17:57
    Good info and sobering. It does seem like the herd immunity hypothesis is rarely trotted out any more by either health authorities or anti vaxxers. Some recent info is also circulating that suggests the mRNA vaccines could contribute to impaired immune response over time. Wishing for good health for everyone.
  • JS
    John S.
    29 May 2022 @ 05:18
    Maybe it's vax injury and not long COVID....
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      31 May 2022 @ 20:57
      I really hope not. There are papers saying something like this (long story) but it would be an absolutely catastrophic disaster.
  • HM
    Harry M. | Real Vision
    1 June 2022 @ 18:08
    I saw this and thought it might add to the discussion.