War Footings

Published on: June 28th, 2021

Notwithstanding some nervousness about the recent rapid rise in inflation and its potential future path, financial repression continues apace. Fiscal stimulus usually associated with war time is being applied to the “war” on climate change and inequality. The stimulus will continue. All grist to the mill of the Exponential Age.

Housing matters in Anglo-Saxon economies… a lot. There is a dark cloud on the horizon for US Housing. We take a peek inside the curtains.

Comments

  • LM
    Lawrence M.
    29 July 2021 @ 00:20
    Any chance we can get an audio version of these? I'm almost embarrassed to ask... but I'm constantly on the move and would love to listen while driving. I don't mind missing the charts/checking them out later.
    • LM
      Lawrence M.
      29 July 2021 @ 00:24
      I've tried a few applications but the headers and footers make things annoyingly difficult... the text to speak applications I've tried read every word on the page.
  • RR
    Raj R.
    25 July 2021 @ 23:18
    Interesting!
  • JW
    Joel W.
    29 June 2021 @ 13:37
    I am still confused (many contradicting messages from reputable experts abound) about the role of Gold.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      30 June 2021 @ 14:55
      Would love to help on this Joel, but I am not clear enough on your question. I'm not even sure Gold has a "role". After all, individual reasons for buying an "asset" dont have to be in line with collective reasons for that asset existing.
    • JW
      Joel W.
      1 July 2021 @ 11:24
      Thanks Harry ! If inflation is on the rise once would think the price of Gold goes up. Continuous 'money printing' would further strengthen Gold. But if the Dollar keeps going up and Brent's Milkshake theory comes to pass, stocks in US at least would go up (especially tech/exponential) and Gold price might keep lingering. Hearing many different scenarios for Gold over the medium term hence my statement above.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      15 July 2021 @ 11:47
      Forgive the delay in coming back on this. I would argue both are true but in different time scales. We watched the "milkshake in real time in 2008. Dollar borrowers lost money on their dollar assets, but their dollar liabilities remained intact. Caused all hell to break loose. Central bank noticed the crisis - (a full blown modern banking collapse) and found ways to pump money into the financial system. Those players who were intact noticed the enormous monetization of the financial system (to prevent systemic collapse) and bought gold. So I would argue first stage is if their is an acute solvency crisis, gold may actually sell off , as people sell everything to meet their margin calls. Second stage, the policy response, gold will rally, and huge. If thats how it plays out then you are heavily rewarded for fading the sell off in risk and gold.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    29 June 2021 @ 04:24
    Raoul, are you worried about the sharp drop in hashrate in bitcoin? Hashrate has been historically correlated to the price of bitcoin and currently, hashrate has dropped to around 25% of all time high at one point recently.
    • BP
      Brett P.
      2 July 2021 @ 17:17
      Late reply here, and obviously my own personal observation here, but the the price is best thought of as a ceiling to the hash rate. If the price goes up, the hash rate will follow due to the block reward. But simply having the hashrate drop doesn't have any direct causal link to price.
  • AK
    Alexander K.
    2 July 2021 @ 10:37
    Minor detail, but the moratorium on evictions has been granted a "final" extension to 31/07/2021. Can kicked down the road just that little bit further. $13bn in unpaid rent per month according to landlords. Could get interesting.
  • ly
    lena y.
    29 June 2021 @ 02:07
    What will government do to benefit REIT?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      30 June 2021 @ 14:53
      Hi Lena. US real estate values are generally connected to US economic activity, so if we have enough fiscal and monetary stimulus we will see higher real estate prices. Obviously some corners of the real estate market will benefit more than others, but overall, economic stimulus will end up in many places, but one of them will be the real estate markets.
  • AH
    Anthony H.
    28 June 2021 @ 19:06
    Good write up. Raoul mentioned in the last RVD he will begin to transition to exponential age assets soon, but does that mean his price targets of 300K BTC/20K ETH have now shifted?