The US-China Global Dominance Debate and Our C.Y.A. Society

Published on
October 26th, 2020
Duration
85 minutes

The US-China Global Dominance Debate and Our C.Y.A. Society

Mike Green in Conversation ·
Featuring Louis Vincent Gave

Published on: October 26th, 2020 • Duration: 85 minutes

Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisers launches his new series with one of his favorite topics, China, and one of his favorite experts, Louis Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research. In this interview that fringes on debate at times, Gave and Green attack the question of whether the U.S. or China is better positioned since the beginning of the COVID crisis. As well, they discuss a topic they can agree on from Gave's most recent pieces from Gavekal Research, "The Guiding Principle of Our Time". In this piece, Gave lays out the argument that decision making from politics to markets is being driven by one simple factor -- C.Y.A., or "cover your ass". Viewers can find this piece in full here: https://rvtv.io/3oePjKe. Filmed on October 20, 2020. Key Learnings: China not responding to COVID with rate cuts and massive fiscal stimulus has consequences for currency strength, foreign investment flows, and real interest rates. Viewers will come away with an understanding of the important factors to pay attention to when determining whether the U.S. will continue its global dominance or if this is the beginning of a new Chinese century.

Comments

Transcript

  • BK
    Brett K.
    30 November 2020 @ 08:35
    I like Louis Vincent, but geeze, in this he's a one string (Chinese) banjo. Mike takes Louis points, and acknowledges the nuance, while identifying areas of disagreement and potential flaws in the All Roads Lead to China theory. But Louis just reverts to his China thesis ad nauseam. I found it really tiring. As an example, Mike compares Chinese bonds today to German or Italian bonds in 1929 (they appear attractive, but only before considering risk premium). Louis responds by suggesting that anyone concerned with the CCP can instead invest in other SE Asian sovereign bonds. But this ignores the analogy; was it a good idea to invest in Polish or Hungarian bonds in 1929? If Louis considers the entire SE Asian region as under the China sphere, surely instability of the CCP could have negative consequences for the entire zone? If they talk again, it would be great if they could find some mutually attractive investments which work in either framework.
  • KM
    Karan M.
    30 November 2020 @ 07:39
    I'd like to see a 2.0, almost every take from Louis has aged badly and it's barely been a month
  • JV
    Joseph V.
    24 November 2020 @ 21:58
    It'd be useful to hear Louis's take on china's growth and deregulation of capital now that the ANT IPO has been killed by Xi.
  • AH
    Amir H.
    22 November 2020 @ 16:23
    Gave is a smart investor, but this complete rubbish. And he has no understanding of epidemiology and the complexities of current healthcare policy. Useless.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    21 November 2020 @ 15:39
    I was deeply disappointed by this interview. Gave plays the role well as an unquestioning representative of the Chinese Government. No mention of Uighurs, religions suppression, intellectual suppression, rampant corruption or military expansion. Grave's absolute loyalty to the monstrous regime cannot be questioned. Neither can his support the crimes of that government. As a country the US must end its dependency on China and the world must oppose its expansion.
    • MF
      Michael F.
      21 November 2020 @ 15:42
      By the way - how can any Government that closes book stores and censors the internet be treated with anything but hatred and contempt?
  • BH
    Bin H.
    20 November 2020 @ 00:43
    Gave not trying to answer the question but sticking to his framework
  • JQ
    Joao Q.
    18 November 2020 @ 14:03
    Louis Gave is a very interesting analyst and it does bring fresh air to the analysis of China. However, it seems to me that he overlooks the problems of a central allocation of capital decision process in creating over-investment in many many areas. I tend to side with Michael Pettis in this as the case he presents seems to make more sense. RV please bring Louis Gave and Michael Pettis for a conversation!
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    18 November 2020 @ 09:32
    Love the focus on the payment system/Swift that Louis has done. This does not get enough media attention.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    18 November 2020 @ 09:29
    Louis view on China is a breath of fresh air on RV after a lot of negative China views by most contributors. They play a very long game and whether they realise it or not, the last 4 years of America first is actually isolating the US to China's benefit (that may not be immediately be visible in the media noise of today), but make no mistake, with each cycle that comes and goes, the center of power is shifting slowly and surely towards Asia. It does not mean the collapse of the US by any means - but it is going to be a multi-lateral world and power structure and the turmoil the world goes through will be the adjustment of the US/OECD to this reality.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    18 November 2020 @ 08:50
    "No death is acceptable" - No company/institution can fail. Not to draw any parallel but it does seem to be the new ways governments deal with "crisis". Do anything to avoid it, although better, though slightly painful options are available. Better in the sense of fixing the real issue. Just like a debt problem cannot be fixed with more debt, a health pandemic cannot be fixed with more lockdowns. A lockdown 6 months ago when there was more uncertainty about the nature of Covid is acceptable. But that time should have been used to put in place sound policies to deal with the new situation and start to get back to a new normal life. The global response has been as varied as the nations that populate this planet. From the great efficiencies of most Asian nations and New Zealand in combating the situation, to the middling success of some of Europe to the complete confusion in the US. Tragic in more ways than one but a lockdown is not the long term solution.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    18 November 2020 @ 04:32
    Sadly, the hospitals are no longer empty -
    • MF
      Michael F.
      18 November 2020 @ 05:33
      Wasn't Covid to disappear after the election?
  • EC
    Earl C.
    17 November 2020 @ 01:23
    So those 3 miles of folks in foodbank lines in just 1 city on 1 day is going to successfully homeschool kids their kids? They can't even feed them. Not 1 mention of the drug epidemic? I find you unqualified for your job Mr. Green.
  • DR
    Dick R.
    28 October 2020 @ 19:31
    What a load of clams! Yes, the hospitals are being overwhelmed. Who says they're not? Yes, a global pandemic requires special measures. Yes, the measures changed as the known facts changed. Why is this a difficult concept? BTW, there is no such thing as herd immunity. Don't wait for it. It will never come. Godot will come sooner. If you look at the hospitalization rate, you come up with completely different conclusions than if you only look at the death rate. Look again in March and see if you come up with the same conclusions. It's disheartening to see two presumably intelligent people come to such flagrantly poorly extracted conclusions. This discussion is not fact-based, it is based on cherry-picking that which helps the previously formed and disregarding that which disproves. One continuing weakness in Real Vision is people gifted with numbers completely at sea dealing with areas outside their expertise. Making a lot of money doesn't mean you are smart. It means you know how to make a lot of money. This is a particularly disgusting example. It is not a question of politics, as can happen with Kyle Bass and his Fun House. It is a question of willful blindness. If you want to get a handle on the pandemic, go to Johns Hopkins' website, not here. In fairness, I only made it through 20 minutes. I kept waiting for the word "contagion," but it was never said. As soon as Louis defended religious obscurantism and attacked the media for not backing up his addled view of things, I shut it off. This grotesque crack-brained silliness is an absolute disgrace.
    • PD
      Paul D.
      29 October 2020 @ 00:21
      They get off of Covid and into china and that part is really excellent.
    • JB
      James B.
      31 October 2020 @ 07:51
      Not everyone in the medical community agrees with your viewpoint either https://www.wsj.com/articles/epidemiologists-stray-from-the-covid-herd-11603477330?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/rrJvHUNgEX https://www.wsj.com/articles/masks-are-a-distraction-from-the-pandemic-reality-11603927026?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/ncfypXP0Lz https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/coronavirus-theory-that-chinese-propaganda-encouraged-western-nations-to-lock-down/news-story/19c3e85f1f3088e5b06f2fb97ee50629
    • FP
      Fred P.
      14 November 2020 @ 17:21
      Excellent point. Here in Holland the ICU’s were overrun in the first wave, and have come close to being overrun in the second wave, despite locking down. What is clear from our numbers is that when you lock down, the numbers come down. This video also has not aged well, as the US hospitalisation have exploded in the mean time. I think Raoul makes a lot more sense on the virus.
    • ET
      E T.
      16 November 2020 @ 00:42
      Grotesquely unfair/uninformed critique, but I won't debate it.
  • ET
    E T.
    16 November 2020 @ 00:38
    Exceptionally good conversation, really insightful. Thank you.
  • CL
    Charl L.
    14 November 2020 @ 19:33
    What a privilege to listen to two investment superstars. Thanks Realvision.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    14 November 2020 @ 12:30
    I am really liking and learning from Mike Green's intellect. And he is brilliant as an interviewer. Yes, he has strong views, but he debates and interviews to truly examine and challenge those views. His strong logical intelligence and approach convinces me that he navigates the markets with an open and flexible mind and that he would be ready to change the course, should the facts tell him to do so. In regards to most other market spectators, I often have doubts about their capability to throw away their ego and strong convictions in due time.... Thus, Real Vision, please do make "Mike Green in Conversation" a returning show on RV
  • JB
    John B.
    12 November 2020 @ 19:41
    Does anyone have Louis' name on Twitter, I could not find him?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      13 November 2020 @ 16:01
      He is not on Twitter.
  • BM
    Bruce M.
    13 November 2020 @ 15:04
    A brilliant conversation between two brilliant minds. More wide-reaching than usual due to the fact that these two gents are really knowledge and can present arguments and counter arguments in a compelling fashion. I see many down votes based on Louis's views on COVID. We all have a personal view on health issues, but my take was that he was talking as much about governance and how we don't have the checks and balances that a functioning society needs. Governments across the developed have not encouraged the debate about the correct holistic approach because certain institutions no longer play a balancing role in governance. In that at least, I agree wholeheartedly and so for me, it is an overwhelming up vote.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    26 October 2020 @ 08:45
    Good discussion. I always enjoy listening to your thoughts, Mike, and Louis makes some interesting points as well. But let me point out the past 10 years of estimated deaths in the US from influenza infection: 2010-2011: 37,000 2011-2012: 12,000 2012-2013: 43,000 2013-2014: 38,000 2014-2015: 51,000 2015-2016: 23,000 2016-2017: 38,000 2017-2018: 61,000 2018-2019: 34,000 2019-2020: 22,000 The US is likely going to be somewhere between 381,000 (universal mask adoption) and 1,053,000 (mask mandate easing) in SARS2-attributable deaths for 2020-2021. A bit different than seasonal influenza. Indeed, the reference scenario for the US yields over 15-fold higher deaths than the average of the seasonal influenza deaths for the past decade. 15-fold. Seasonal influenza is an incredibly serious public health issue and COVID carries a 15-fold higher mortality. And that's not to mention the inflammatory heart damage, lung pathologies, kidney damage, and neurological dysfunction seen in many of those who have recovered. Further, that's assuming we don't get a novel pathogenic mutation, recombinant with native CoVs, etc. Come on, a pathogen that is going to kill half a million Americans within a year is pretty serious that warrants substantial action. This is on par with all cancer deaths in the US this year. Maybe next time, we'll do something smart to stop such pandemics in their tracks early on to circumvent such an impact on the economy. I and numerous medical professionals were screaming about how to handle this in early January. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1132-9
    • KH
      Koen H.
      26 October 2020 @ 10:57
      And death toll is only part of the problem. In The Netherlands (10k new cases and 150+ individuals hospitalized / day) hospitals are almost full, surgeries are being postponed. Imo it is interesting to discuss what the best policy response is to fight the pandemic, but it thought by now it was clear covid-19 - in terms of impact on society - isn't like the flu.
    • BM
      Brian M.
      26 October 2020 @ 16:28
      Why do two extremely intelligent individuals like Louis and Mike ignore/downplay the actual data? Is this just an example of a cognitive bias that is permeating the discussion around COVID-19? I feel it is extremely important to understand why this is happening.
    • MB
      MICHAEL B.
      26 October 2020 @ 18:09
      The data you have posted for prior years, as well as estimates for this year, all depend on how a cause of death is determined. In most countries, any one who dies after a positive test is added to the death count. Of course the way in which cause of death is defined can grossly inflate or deflate the figures. In the UK for example, until well into the summer, there was no end date for counting a death after a positive test. Meaning, unless you live forever, that once you test positive and eventually die of any cause, even years later, they would count that death as a covid death. Thankfully this ridiculous method was amended, but the data set you are using for deaths FROM not WITH covid 19 are so corrupted they are now nearly meaningless. Excess death data for the year is also corrupted due to the literally millions of missed appointments for other conditions, which have resulted in countless deaths. Maybe more deaths than from covid itself. I can easily imagine that the cure, in the end, will be worse than the disease. The way this entire situation has been documented, reported on, and the policy decisions made, to me, are deeply worrying and in many ways very strange.
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      26 October 2020 @ 22:42
      Just a few points : 1) do we have deacreced mortality from Flu this year, could it be that virus mills safe people ? When you introduce new virus with no immunity you will have a high mortality But is it possible that very soon we might have moratslity from covid similar to the flu? Also : unless you are truly believing that we will have vaccine, what exactly are we trying to acheave by lock downs ? You might gain time, but the virus ultimately will take it toll, whoever is vulnerable can not hide, and virus is not going anywhere
    • SS
      Steven S.
      27 October 2020 @ 02:38
      Thanks for the questions, Alexander. We simply don't know with COVID if there will be an attenuation of mortality and morbidity over time. You're correct that often we find that cross-reactivity of antibodies, memory T-cells, the evolution of less pathogenic variants of the virus and other mechanisms can reduce the severity of infections over time in a population. Influenza is markedly different from SARS2. For example, Influenza undergoes genetic reassortment and a higher mutation rate than SARS2. Taking precautions lowers the impact on healthcare systems, buys time for a vaccine, and clearly impacts the overall effect of the virus on the health of populations. The toll that SARS2 takes, would be incredibly reduced with a viable, disseminated vaccine. The US had more time to prepare than the country of origin (China) and look at the difference on those two populations and their economies. Next time: do a real lockdown, do it immediately, develop an effective diagnostic, and contact trace. It'll be over in a month and the economy and health of the population will be minimally damaged. We live in a global, deeply interconnected world with exposures to all sorts of different infectious pathogens. This will happen again. Perhaps instituting a national plan might be a good idea. Suppose SARS3 comes around in five years with 10x the mortality of SARS2 and asymptomatic transmission. Michael: the COVID death records aren't perfect and vary from state to state and healthcare organization to healthcare organization. But everyone believes the CDC numbers are moderate underestimates of the COVID deaths. The influenza numbers are fairly solid and PCR validation of respiratory illnesses seen in a hospitalization setting is standard. I know this is RV and focused on economics/finance. I was just taken back by Louis and Mike's position on the topic. I thoroughly enjoy Mike's work and find him extremely insightful. However, I expected a higher degree of proper interpretation of COVID data from a fellow peninsula/valley native.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      27 October 2020 @ 22:34
      Thanks Steven for this great comment! I totally agree on your premise that drastic actions were needed to mitigate the spread. Since you are suggesting a total lockdown, how do you explain that Taiwan and Hong Kong survived the pandemic with minimal deaths and without a total lockdown? Also I followed the situation in China in December and January very closely and I think it's more than fair to say the death toll during those months was several times higher than officially reported.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      28 October 2020 @ 05:49
      Thanks, Lauri. You're right, perhaps we don't need a very extreme lockdown. I think the way to answer the question would be to use the data that we have of which strategies are successful and which ones are not. Certainly China ended up being on the successful side of that spectrum, although the tools they employed were draconian. Implementation of lockdowns and somewhat invasive tracking mechanisms in the West would be quite challenging. I'm convinced that you're correct about the higher death count/infection count in China than what was reported. In fact, I have excellent evidence of this from December/January. Given what I'm aware of, the actually death count was between 3-10x higher than the reported numbers in China (through approximately the end of January). I don't have information after that time period. That said, China has been much more successful both in terms of economics and population health. Further, they didn't have a lead time to prepare as the outbreak occurred there.
    • GG
      Gordon G.
      13 November 2020 @ 11:53
      Good post. In response to Brian M. Yes, it's a scary demonstration of our monkey brains limitations. This is what Michael wrote on twitter in late march: "I am confused. PPE (and other) shortages are being addressed rapidly (unless regulators hold them up), treatments are emerging, R0 plummeting. Models employed wrong. 77 000 global deaths +/- 50K. Politicians taking over. You cheering takeover. Me not" He predicted that the pandemic was almost over and that we would land on ~77k deaths globally. He could very well end up being wrong with 50-100X when this is over. Don't get me wrong. I respect Michael a ton. But he has clearly stuck to an early bias he had. If he can, anyone can, in any subject.
  • WL
    Will L.
    12 November 2020 @ 21:09
    Mr. Gave has failed to mention the significant amount of uncertainty that private or foreign businesses and investors face when operating/investing in China. After this interview, the IPO for Ant Financial was pulled two days before going public because Mr. Jack Ma said something deemed inappropriate by the regulators at an unofficial forum. Mr. Gave portrays China as a land of great riches for investors who are piling in and all roads will lead to Beijing but he fails to mention that other countries have cottoned onto the fact that China just takes, takes and takes in terms of trade and doesn't give and has nothing to inspire in terms of values and culture. We have to take what Mr. Gave with a massive grain of salt given that he lives in Hong Kong which is now under the thumbs of Xi.
  • ea
    edwin a.
    11 November 2020 @ 21:09
    impressive dueling narratives, but would be even better with more dueling data. surprising that debt wasn't discussed much. would be good to have Michael Pettis as an RV guest / contributor....
    • ea
      edwin a.
      11 November 2020 @ 21:10
      oops. spoke too soon. looks like Pettis was on in Oct...
  • it
    ian t.
    10 November 2020 @ 09:36
    wonderful interview - none of us knows the future so it is fine to disagree
  • HH
    HODL H.
    10 November 2020 @ 04:49
    Haven’t seen my dude Gave at lockdown protests, where’s he at? He should be doing this call from a bar given low risk of death, but looks like he’s just chilling at home. Hookah bar might be best bet given low risk
  • DD
    Donovan D.
    9 November 2020 @ 02:02
    Wow such a great debate! Thanks for sharing this.
  • MK
    Martin K.
    8 November 2020 @ 21:41
    Stop being naive. Its sociopaths that make the decisions.
  • JJ
    JARED J.
    8 November 2020 @ 17:16
    I wonder what Louis thinks now after the ANT debacle. Xi Jinping is much more Mao then Deng.
  • AE
    Anders E.
    29 October 2020 @ 22:21
    Painfully binary discussion on capitalism vs communism. The Scandinavian countries proved long ago (began with Saltsjö Avtalet in 1937) that shared power between labor and capital is more effective than capital being entirely in control. This historic agreement covered 2 of the 3 factors of production. More recently, the environmentalists became a force for land, the 3rd factor. A good economic system needs to have good stewardship of all three factors - all need a seat at the table. The Scandinavians also leveled the playing field by providing more equal opportunity through free merit based schooling, health care, and other safety nets. This is not communism, but many call it a form of socialism. Regardless, the system has produced the most billionaires per capita of any system in the world. Interestingly, Sweden also bucked the trend in Covid-19 lockdowns, which I strongly disagree are a form of CYA policies. Clearly, influential commercial interests are taking advantage of the situation by reinforcing the narrative that suites their bottom line. And bought-and-paid-for politicians are more than happy go along. Never let a good crisis go to waste is more likely the real explanation for the crazy response in most of the western world. And judging by the coordinated rollout of the 'Build Back Better' slogan, it seems to also suite the Davos crew and their great reset dreams. The biggs get bigger with the help of corrupt politicians. Too bad for mom and pop...
    • AE
      Anders E.
      29 October 2020 @ 22:47
      Correction: Saltsjöbadsavtalet, 1938.
    • ar
      andrew r.
      4 November 2020 @ 15:54
      Anders, you make some good points, but you can't compare tiny, homogenous societies with shared histories and values to large, multi-cultural countries that lack both.
  • CC
    Charles C.
    3 November 2020 @ 19:42
    An incredibly interesting conversation. The ability to respectively disagree with someone as graciously as Mike and Louis have done seems lost in public media. At least we can come here for civil discourse which enlightens as well as entertains us. Thanks RV.
  • KB
    Kay B.
    2 November 2020 @ 21:32
    I totally agree on this. Social media increases the politics of blame avoidance: "Politicians are motivated primarily by the desire to avoid blame for unpopular actions rather than by seeking to claim credit for popular ones." (R. Kent Weaver in 1986) https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-public-policy/article/politics-of-blame-avoidance/4F0795709B34074180FD9776B6A66983
  • DG
    David G.
    31 October 2020 @ 21:34
    Disagree with Mike and Louis on this. There is always an element of incompetence in government, but incompetence and CYA does not account for what is happening with Covid-19. For example ... 1). Why restrict use of Hydroxychloroquine when studies have proven it to be safe and effective treatment for Covid? Dr. Simone Gold said, "Never in the history of medicine have doctors have been told they cannot prescribe a FDA approved drug (HCQ) that has been in use for over 65yrs. Worse, doctors have been told they can use HCQ for any other illness, just not Covid-19." How the hell do you explain this? 2). According to the CDC only 6% of Covid-19 deaths are actually from Covid-19. Therefore most of what we hear is statistical hype to exacerbate the dangers of Covid-19. Why does legacy media and government to push non-stop Covid-hysteria and fear propaganda? You call this CYA and incompetence?
    • NI
      Nate I.
      1 November 2020 @ 04:49
      Some would say that Dr Gold is a quack (I don't agree, but just saying). However, good luck labeling French virologist and Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier a quack. Very early on he said cv19 was created in a lab. China knew that and they didn't contain it when it got loose - either deliberately or accidentally. That's a hell of a lot bigger than CYA.
    • DB
      David B.
      1 November 2020 @ 19:58
      You might get more out of a Quanon website
  • MC
    Mathew C.
    1 November 2020 @ 16:10
    A good drinking game could be a shot every time Mike Green says “function”.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    1 November 2020 @ 04:37
    Great conversation. Thanks to both of you. I would agree with your CYA premise were it not for people like Rahm Emanuel who have openly admitted - even bragged - that you never let a crisis go to waste. He's hardly alone.
  • RS
    Ryan S.
    31 October 2020 @ 23:32
    Rising interest rates in China should be deflationary. Rising RMB for an export-based economy sounds pretty deflationary to me as well. Yen was overvalued in 1990 but the RMB in 2020 is not? Domestic consumer market still dependent upon foreign trade while foreign trade is drying up... deflationary. New total addressable market for Chinese exports limited to Africa and which other Asian countries exactly? I can think of only a handful that are not actively decoupling from China and some of those such as Thailand, Cambodia, and Pakistan have anti-china domestic unrest. BRI projects turned out to all be white elephants. Wolf warrior diplomacy and law by CCP fiat is alienating export markets as well as investors. Demographics will start to decline in China in 2022 and labor cost is ripe for the middle income trap. Ultimately automation will outweigh the advantages of labor and manufacturing will migrate to where the energy is cheapest. What exactly is China doing right besides some imaginative fintech and the honey trap of higher interest rates to hoard foreign currency?
  • DG
    David G.
    31 October 2020 @ 13:53
    You'll Definitely want some popcorn and a comfortable seat. I'm not educated enough to have an opinion on who is right. All I can conclude is the same as when the smart people go back and forth about the details of the crypto world, physical gold for a Westerner, will give you options in the East, West, and crypto universe regardless. Hold gold until you know who will win and in what space, I'll settle for base hits so long as I stay in the game.
  • HD
    Hem D.
    31 October 2020 @ 00:26
    One of the best 2020 interview on RV platform!
  • DS
    David S.
    29 October 2020 @ 21:15
    Although Mr. Green is always great, I believe Mr Gave is much closer to the future of the Chinese market. The big difference for me is China has a plan. Currently the US has no plan except to be reelected. I am investing in China now. Thanks for a brilliant dialog. DLS
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    27 October 2020 @ 19:05
    Why look at only mortality and TOTALLY ignore morbidity. If 30% of covid patient's suffer myocarditis and have varying degrees of heart damage. Not to mention the multisystem organ destruction from this non-lethal disease. Neurological, renal, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, immulogical and even other low morbidity, but long term sequelae can not be simply discarded. It is highly offensive to see non-medical individuals share their medical understanding regarding managing MEDICAL RISKS. Just as you must be an accredited investor before you can enter the big leagues of investing, there really should be some limits placed on amateur medical professionals offering public advice.
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      27 October 2020 @ 19:21
      CYA is an important consideration in medical risk management, because the practice of actual medicine comes with unknowable responsibility to those who do not practice it. CYA causes practitioners to think twice and then again and then one more time to assure themselves they are making the right management decisions. Do you want the medical professional field to blow up every 10 years killing millions people like your so called financial system does in bankrupting them? Yes CYA is a pain in the ass whenever you medically manage risk, but so is knowing one's own cavalier approach to MEDICAL RISK MANAGEMENT has killed someone and now you have to go tell their wife and kids that you fucked up and killed their loved one. Losing one's precious capital is NOTHING compared to making a mistake and losing someone's loved one. And for those concrete only thinkers out there, you know what its like to run over a strangers pet and just feel terrible. Image upwards in this analogy...
    • LS
      L S.
      27 October 2020 @ 19:48
      Shawn, I am a physician and you are demonstrating that you again are of the tribe that never wants to talk about tradeoffs, risks, or health hazards beyond covid (other disease processes that are ignored or untreated due to your fear mongering) in an adult way. There are no serious heath outcomes of this coronavirus for healthy people. Yes, those people were destined to have bad outcomes either way. You know nothing about morbidity, you just throw crazy numbers out there and continue the fear game. The worst part is that you are inflicting true damage on other people that also results in decreased quality of life and longevity. And you're not even honest about at all.
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      27 October 2020 @ 23:22
      Lemony S. as I work in Anesthesia I am in a similar field as you are sir and yes it is tribal, but I am of the tribe that places life above property. You must be a surgeon. Your "no serious outcomes for healthy people", conveniently excludes the people you obviously do not care about. They may have been "destined" to have bad outcomes either way, yes genetically, but they were not destined to become infected. And yes I do know a few things about morbidity as I read the same journals you have access to but obviously skip. Lastly I am being completely honest about the KNOWN risks and what I think of misinformed physicians such as yourself. Enjoy the JAMA article if your mind is open at all. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916
    • LS
      L S.
      29 October 2020 @ 20:59
      Yes they were destined to become infected, or challenged, because that's what happens in life. It's all the same thing. You act like you have the power to stop these people from dying. It's sheer arrogance and foolishness. Why must you promote the destiny of others to be abused by the government unnecessarily? The people you are claiming to help will still die, yet others lose jobs, sanity, fights with addiction, etc. I never hear the sob story about those people. Why? You aren't adult enough to care about everyone and everything - this is complex. Go on a crusade to ban driving of cars and motorcycles, then talk to me. Otherwise you have no skin in the game since those kill far more people than this covid stuff ever could.
  • LS
    L S.
    27 October 2020 @ 20:02
    The "testing" was also part of the plandemic response, so you can use that instead of the fact that no one is symptomatic, in order to cause more fear. PCR can be amped with more cycles, false positives can abound, and the powers that be can claim they are doing so much and care so much about you - while ironically ruining you mentally, socially and destroying their own economies. Normies should have sniffed this out recently when a lot of sports leagues tested players and obviously have an interest in playing, so what did they do when a few players (for example, the Indianapolis Colts) tested positive? They retested. Why? The guys were obviously asymptomatic. What happened? FALSE POSITIVES. The men were negative. Media, sports and otherwise, showed me how dumb they are, because this clearly points out that tests mean only so much, and may mean NOTHING at times. In medical practice we are taught to "treat the patient, not the lab or the number." Why? That's what the real world is about. But numbers and statements out of context can fool people and create more fear, so I know why. Just letting you know what's going on, fear mongers.
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      28 October 2020 @ 04:01
      Your the only one that sounds afraid. We are simply dealing with the uncertainty and your arguments only highlight it.
    • LS
      L S.
      29 October 2020 @ 20:55
      Fear of anti-freedom governments and bureaucrats is rational. It is real and is throughout time and history for those who are aware, and study it. The virus is a true phobia, irrational fear of it leads to the power structures feasting on those who don't treasure liberty and sanity. Wake up.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    28 October 2020 @ 18:56
    Great interview, would love to get the GaveKal write up !
    • GH
      Galen H.
      29 October 2020 @ 14:27
      The link is in the abstract underneath.
  • MC
    Mark C.
    29 October 2020 @ 03:53
    Great discussion. I wonder what they think of managing to hospital capacity. That is essentially how I have understood how California is managing the pandemic. The discussion on China has my mind churning. Thank you gentlemen.
  • SB
    Steve B.
    29 October 2020 @ 03:03
    Mike Green for President!
  • KM
    Kelly M.
    27 October 2020 @ 19:28
    The last time I saw eyes as blue as Mike's was in the movie Dune! Excellent interview!!!
    • Bd
      Bram d.
      28 October 2020 @ 23:25
      Coincidence? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPcrB4OC1TE
  • pt
    popejumpingjohnpaul t.
    28 October 2020 @ 22:30
    really great to hear LVGs bullish china thoughts, it seems pretty clear huge numbers of Americans are focussed on defeating their fellow countrymen and couldn't care less about china or the future. I would have to favour the US maintaining supremacy as Chinas paranoid totalitarianism is a dead end. However the absolute mind-numbing ignorance and idiocy of the trump GOP will certainly ruin America if allowed to fester and rightly so!
  • JK
    John K.
    27 October 2020 @ 14:12
    Lol I guess real vision is embracing their political side with this one and to that I say these two sound like some whining babies because the pope actually took a pandemic seriously. More Americans have died of Covid than the Vietnam war took in 2 decades and these two are upset that people are upset that trump isn’t responding. I have yet to see anybody on the left ( that is who you’re referring to when you’re talking about trump criticism) call for more lockdowns. The left are upset because he has shown he does not care about the deaths at all. Sweden came out and spoke to the public like adults and said wear your masks and everything will be fine. Trump can’t even suggest basic healthy safety to the American public. Also the people want to prosecute trump not for his crimes in office but his crimes he committed before office. That is a major difference to what you two are suggesting. Trump is in legal trouble for fraud that he committed in the past. If you let trump slide you open the door for every criminal to look at the presidential office as a get out of jail free card. If trump murdered somebody 5 years before office would you suggest he gets off scot free? Then why should he not at least face trial for his numerous fraud charges
    • LS
      L S.
      27 October 2020 @ 19:54
      Trump is going to win again and since you can't be reasoned with, that's all I will say. You have your own reward and it begins and ends with misery.
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      27 October 2020 @ 23:43
      Lemony it is becoming clearer and clearer to me that you are probably not a physician. You have to many misspoken and illogical thought processes to have made it through medical school. Although it is possible and if it is in fact true you are a physician I would only add that it is obvious that the shutdowns have cut into your revenue stream and that is what your really upset about. Go play golf!
    • DK
      David K.
      28 October 2020 @ 21:45
      There has been no recommendation to wear a mask here in Sweden.
  • WC
    Wilson C.
    28 October 2020 @ 13:19
    Louis is the GOAT. great interview by Mike (damn, those blue eyes are mesmerizing). Louis got the pulse on the global picture, and specifically on China/Asia (mandarin speaking French!). Tend to agree with Louis on Covid, I can only share our experience here in Hong Kong, 8M people packed like sardines, wet markets crowded, no 6 feet social distancing, cash money society, etc and < 10 cases per day (big hoola, city wants to get to 0). You would think the infection rate would go ballistic here. But we do have everyone sanitizing frequently, masks are norm, contact tracing immediately with known cases, etc so hopefully at least here, we've past the peak period.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    26 October 2020 @ 22:41
    Wow! Finally someone smarter than Mike Green. So impressive! There are a few things not discussed: the Chinese are determined, hard working, and United.
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      28 October 2020 @ 13:10
      ssshh, most of RV viewers are american, China is the new Russia. on a more serious note, Weijian Shan (Out of the Gobi) who was interviewed here on RV, wrote an article recently in SCMP (Hong Kong) with a very favourable view on HK, NSL, and the fact that he feels he can express his views more openly in HK than in USA (pressure, what not). Go figure.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    27 October 2020 @ 13:59
    I really appreciate this interview. Outstanding. I agree with Mike that our school system has been a disaster. My wife is a retired teacher (also a retired Army Lieutenant Colonel) and has seen the result on the inside. She taught math, so was able to avoid the student indoctrination. Our children went to Catholic and Charter schools and that resulted in three engineers and one attorney (corporate - WSGR for those who are curious).
    • RM
      Robert M.
      27 October 2020 @ 16:11
      My two kids graduated from public schools and went on to attend top 20 universities in both undergraduate and graduate programs, graduating with honors. My wife also taught in public schools and was an asst principal as well. Both of us believe in a strong public school education system. Yes, some cities struggle, but kids excelling in a public school system get exposure to the real world of diversity and have the same opportunity to attend top universities as those that go to private schools. An educated workforce is considered one of the "assets" of our country. We need to better fund and operate our educational system to build this asset and not abandon it to charter schools and private schools where only those that can afford to pay or live in the right districts are educated at the highest standards.
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      28 October 2020 @ 12:47
      really interesting to see Robert M. comment got down votes. seems common sense (maybe to non-americans more?).
  • LP
    Lauri P.
    27 October 2020 @ 19:19
    Excellent debate on China, I'd love to see more of these videos where opposite views are argued and pushed hard. Disappointed on the Covid part, given that the strong response is the main reason why China has been able to come so unscathed (so far) out of this crisis.
    • cd
      calvin d.
      28 October 2020 @ 00:03
      I would argue that we have zero access to any real statistics in China. The world has no clue.
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      28 October 2020 @ 12:42
      agree. disagree with zero access to china statistics. there is no trust, so it doesn't matter what stats is released. the only stats "the world" wants to see is bad stats. everything begins with trust. Louis Gave has spent enough time in Chna, and probably has a wide chinese network that he has a pulse on the ground.
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    26 October 2020 @ 18:39
    He might be right two weeks ago. But now in Europe and in some areas of USA, hospital and ICUs beds are almost all taken and health systems are in collapse...
    • MB
      MICHAEL B.
      28 October 2020 @ 11:20
      This is so inaccurate that you should really consider what gave you that opinion. Was it the hysterical headlines (that the media are using in a pretty disgraceful way), or did you get that opinion from the actual data? Please look at the data here, this is the European CDC, you can check all the hospitalisation and ICU data for each country in Europe. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-data-hospital-and-icu-admission-rates-and-current-occupancy-covid-19 .
  • IV
    Ian V.
    26 October 2020 @ 22:46
    Prior boss an ex-hedge fund portfolio manager yelled at me in mid-February for asking what our company's plans were regarding COVID. Told me everything I need to know about finance people and their knowledge of public health responses. And related, my personal takeaway from this interview is that the financial sectors (and their corporate cousins) in the West are actually our biggest weakness and the biggest burden to the system, a virus left unchecked in a way. Now they don't create productive credit anymore, they drive up the wrong prices, they suck up all the talent, they're first in line for bailouts, they incentivize deflationary activities like cost-cutting and off-shoring and wage freezing and limited CapEx then encourage buybacks/M&A but then whine to the Fed to stoke more inflation but not too much. The financial sector has a lot to answer for.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      27 October 2020 @ 01:05
      Very well said. A lot chimed in this for me.
    • LH
      Luke H.
      28 October 2020 @ 10:03
      I think you've identified an important disconnect between RV contributors and many in the audience :) I've enjoyed Mike's interviews before, but there seemed to be a lot of wilful ignorance in this one. Excuse me if I take my public health cues from doctors and public health experts. The stuff about the pope should have kept churches open was where I hit the stop button. Give me a break.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    28 October 2020 @ 07:33
    Great interview, thanks Mike and Louis. Intelligent points from both sides. From the way China has treated Australia (trade retaliation when we asked for an investigation into the origins of covid), I am skeptical of their motives in general. Who was it who said, China doesn't have a rule of law (Confucian principle maybe?). Michael Pettis? Surely that is required to underpin any financial market? Decentralisation may be an out?
  • SL
    Shawn L.
    28 October 2020 @ 06:02
    Mike and/or Louis I have a simple question. Blaming governments and people for being "fear based" actors, fails to understand that this is their nature. Sure it can be worsened, but it can not be eliminated. There would have been an economic crisis, even if our government was doing everything to educate people and encourage them all to go back to work. (even if the news outlets and the pope helped, ridiculous argument by the way). You must accept reality as it is. Look at Sweden. No lock-down and they did no better economically than the rest of us. Why because uncertainty is deflationary, fear is deflationary, my unknown death risk from a novel virus is deflationary. So my question is, if your perfectly objective non-emotional world doesn't really exist why are you simply using CYA as the excuse to blame it on? It's not CYA, that is only a tiny part of it. It is the emotional nature of all people that drives them to be conservative when afraid. Once you cure the covid fear are you going to crusade against all fear? Should governments make me go to work just so GDP stays where it is? Government "infringe" on personal rights all the time. They do it for the great public good. (seat belts, gun laws, drinking age, draft assignment, taxes!) What after that are you stamping out greed too? Why not simply look at the countries that got it right? New Zealand had a plan, we did not. That was 1000x more fear inspiring than the media, democrats, CYA or who ever else you want to blame. I have watch this twice and I know your have tried to make a concerted objective look at CYA, but it misses the forest for the tree when it relates to covid.
  • LF
    Liam F.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:30
    "The US is getting dumber" -LV Gave Understatement of 2020. Exhibit #1: the current President of the USA. Exhibit #2: the base.
    • DC
      Daniel C.
      28 October 2020 @ 05:39
      Usually people who suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect make such broad generalisations.
  • WB
    William B.
    28 October 2020 @ 05:05
    Both guys are brilliant!!
  • HG
    Henry G.
    28 October 2020 @ 04:13
    Good comments by Mike on China - inline with Peter Zeihan's model in Disunited Nations
  • SM
    Stephen M.
    28 October 2020 @ 03:13
    Exceptional conversation!
  • JA
    Junaid A.
    28 October 2020 @ 01:42
    Sad that there is biased Trump supporters on RV.
  • SP
    Simon P.
    28 October 2020 @ 01:24
    Thank you! Amazing!
  • AV
    Alvin V.
    28 October 2020 @ 01:23
    1:06:00 ............
  • JG
    Jordan G.
    28 October 2020 @ 00:56
    Thanks guys. One of the best talks I've seen in a while. Please keep more of this coming :))
  • JL
    J L.
    27 October 2020 @ 16:12
    In Madison Wisconsin they set up a field hospital in the past few days because the hospital system was overwhelmed. In El Paso Texas they also had to set up alternate medical facilities because the hospitals are being overwhelmed. When the number of COVID patients explodes at a rapid enough rate, immediate capacity is taken away, leading to overflow and staffing shortages, which adds to the potential for surplus deaths born of various causes beyond COVID because, if someone has a non-COVID emergency, they either can't get a bed or are afraid to go. What is happening in Madison and El Paso now has the potential to happen in dozens of states. Meanwhile, in the United States, the death rate per capita is astronomical compared to countries like New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan. Vietnam, and others. It is not just a little bit higher, it is more than 130 times higher. Also, at the same time, there is credible evidence that COVID-19 can cause serious medical trauma, even in healthy adults, including serious afflictions like heart tissue scarring, lung damage, and even "brain fog" and other neural-related issues. My question is: Do you think what is happening in Madison and El Paso is conspiracy theory? That the hospitals being overwhelmed now, and the staff being pushed to the point of exhaustion, are faking it? And what about the death rate differences of well over 100X? Is that just faked data? Or is there an alternative explanation, which is that someone's ideological commitment to libertarianism has glitched out their worldview to a point of blatant irrationality when it comes to public health issues?
    • PD
      Peter D.
      27 October 2020 @ 19:05
      You can't compare the U.S. with the rest of the world. 1. The obesity rate for those U.S. 60+ year olds is 42.4% (CDC). Half of those who aren't obese are overweight. 2. Diabetes rates for those 65+ were 25%. 3. 85% of all U.S. adults aged 65+ used prescription drugs during the past 30 days. Until seniors (who control all levels of government, assets and academia) take a good hard look at themselves, the smart money will bet that this crisis will drag on. Not just a few months. Not just another year. But many years.
    • LS
      L S.
      27 October 2020 @ 19:53
      When you are unhealthy, it is especially immoral of you to use force to control others freedom. If this were actually a lethal disease for a healthy person (it's not) I would consider the conversation. That's the point though. Why can't I demand that you get on my prescribed diet and exercise routine if you want to take away my social, mental health, physical activity (gyms) and economic rights (all of us)? Think people. Wake up. You aren't honest. You are all fear mongers and worse, ignorant - sometimes even liars.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      27 October 2020 @ 21:09
      Not sure how someone can say this is not serious for healthy person. Know someone who was healthy that passed away within 2 weeks of contracting.
    • DS
      Douglas S.
      27 October 2020 @ 23:14
      J L., I would just like to point out that 3 of the 4 countries you named are islands; the natural barrier makes it much easier to control entry and movement after entry. All 4 of those country's populations combined is not half that of the United States. Not to mention the differences between eastern culture and western culture. While I agree with your sentiment, you are comparing apples to oranges.
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      27 October 2020 @ 23:40
      Lemony the personal freedom argument is shallow, ignorant and invalid. Is it against you freedoms to require you to wear a seatbelt? Are helmet laws unconstitutional? Your logic is quite illogical.
    • JL
      J L.
      28 October 2020 @ 00:24
      To those pointing out the US is not a small country, the US has more obese people etcetera, these explanations do not explain the per-capita-adjusted differential, nor do they explain a mortality rate per 100K that is more than 130 times that of the more successful countries. To argue, say, a 50-100 percent worse per capita mortality rate per capita would make sense adjusted for a higher instance of comorbidities and greater commitment to freedoms, fine -- but 13,000 percent worse, even in comparison to places with dense cities and tens of millions of people? Give me a break. Also, the argument that healthy people should not have their freedoms restricted is sociopathic. All of us, or at least most of us, have either elderly or immuno-compromised people in our lives that we care very much about. Telling them to either live out the rest of their lives in a plastic bubble, either forgoing human contact or gambling with their life, is cruel in the extreme. My hunch is that a great many individuals, particularly in the financial sphere, are so ideologically committed to a libertarian point of view that the notion of a coordinated government response being the solution to any type of problem somehow breaks their mental frame. Rather than accept that level of structural challenge to a zealously simplistic anti-government worldview, they contort themselves into pretzel-like shapes and wind up as Covid truthers, determined to deny empirically observable reality for the sake of avoiding dissonance.
  • HS
    Henry S.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:56
    This was an excellent discussion, with differing views driving a deeper understanding of the situation. Frank comments regarding covid are both refreshing and appreciated. (Leave the virus weanie view for MSM)
  • JD
    John D.
    27 October 2020 @ 12:39
    I for one thought the discussion on CYA/Covid was near perfect. So much data allow for so many spurious correlations assumed to be causal because one can easily find examples to support whatever one wishes to believe. But that's not how causal relationships are identified. We can produce countless empirical examples of seeing wet sidewalks while it's raining, but to conclude that wet sidewalks *cause* rain we need a control group and experimentation. And, there only needs to be *one* counter-example shown of wet sidewalks without any rain to cast serious doubt on a causal relationship. In regard to Covid, there are many such empirical counter-examples that should cast serious doubt on the causality of just about everything we are told re: non-pharmaceutical interventions. It is also fair to ask why these interventions in so many cases run counter to the widely accepted standing protocols in place before Covid-19. It is also fair to admit that there is a lot we don't yet know about demographic and environmental influences on disease spread (including previous exposure to natural and manmade factors that influence immune response to exposure). Even if everyone agreed that this is and order of magnitude more deadly than the flu (for example), there still needs to be some clear evidence of *causal* relationships between the non-pharma interventions and outcomes. There isn't; too many counter examples for all of them. And, there is significant, honest, disagreement on the *relative* deadliness of this virus. If we are going to endorse/accept extraordinary interventions, there should be extraordinary evidence that they work (work on a *net* basis- interventions cause death and suffering as well). The fact that extremely intelligent people vigorously disagree is a strong indication that there isn't any such evidence. And thus, policy flows in the way of least resistance, which is the CYA way discussed in the interview. Well done.
    • LS
      L S.
      27 October 2020 @ 19:55
      Finally, an intelligent John. Thank you sir.
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      27 October 2020 @ 23:52
      John although Lemony and I have greatly disagreed thus far and although I do not know what "Finally, an intelligent John" means specifically. I too agree with your assertions that data is incomplete and insufficient to prove causality. I agree with you because inconclusive data should be a reminder that we should take extras precautions while we continue to learn. We as a nation should not use our own lack of certainty as an excuse to ignore the risks and possibilities because its more convenient to pretend its 2019. If were to take the "ignorance as a excuse" pathway it would quickly become politicians one and only means of governing, as it is very convenient. We should follow the science as we did in March. Since March we have been following the "Lemony Covid is a Hoax" pathway and we can all see where that has landed us.
  • DB
    David B.
    27 October 2020 @ 16:57
    One of the foundations of this arguments is COVID is AS deadly as a bad flu season. COVID is many times more communicable than the common flu. Due to the numerous lockdowns, COVID spread has been less than it would have been. I submit that the common flu season would be spread significantly less if the lockdowns would be implemented during a normal flu season. Is this practicle? Absolutely not. But to imply that COVID spread during the pandemic is comparable to a regular common flu season is not logical given the higher transmission rate for COVID. This fact might have been brought out later in the video, but this lack of clarity drives me crazy. I am waiting to hear a person in power say that, " If we open the society fully, or protect the vulnerable and open, this many people will die". An estimate calculating "Opening leads to "X" deaths" would be helpful. Grim, no doubt, but needed. Models, given the many populations around the world dealing with this event, should be able to come up with a "death range" which makes the choice more clear, instead of flying blind. This type of stark analysis is done numerous times by governments around the world yearly. Examples are as basic as the speed limit for a given road to the number of nuclear weapons to make for defense. On to the rest of the video!
    • HY
      H Y.
      27 October 2020 @ 18:47
      Agreed, i think a lot of people are making this mistake looking just at the data / charts. If i have a heart attack does not mean you will also have one, but that's not tje case with covid. However, I agree with the his CYA views and overall that china with all its ups and downs, will keep rising as it has a very (very) long term view on things, the luxury which western democracies do not have.. Also, China is not the Japan of the 1980s....
    • LS
      L S.
      27 October 2020 @ 19:50
      No assertion you made there is true. Transmission is minimally higher. Lockdowns show no change from other cultures that didn't, but they do show drawn out social and economic effects that literally kill people. Masking does zero. Stop the fear mongering and at least try to have an adult conversation.
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      27 October 2020 @ 23:38
      Wrong again Lemony
  • LF
    Liam F.
    27 October 2020 @ 23:30
    "The US is getting dumber" -LV Gave Understatement of 2020. Exhibit #1: the current President of the USA. Exhibit #2: the base.
  • CO
    Craig O.
    27 October 2020 @ 22:42
    Great discussion (post COVID-19 section, which was hard to listen to). Louis pushes back without hesitation on Mike Green. Right or wrong, have to admire his confidence and conviction in doing that. Very disappointed in the treatment of COVID-19, especially from Mike Green. Alas, he is only a mortal. See Steven S "Top Comment" at end of this page. His modest critique points out the glaring fallacies. I share his lament: "I know this is RV and focused on economics/finance. I was just taken back by Louis and Mike's position on the topic. I thoroughly enjoy Mike's work and find him extremely insightful. However, I expected a higher degree of proper interpretation of COVID data from a fellow peninsula/valley native."
  • JC
    Jason C.
    27 October 2020 @ 02:04
    Microsoft Windows -> USD Apple iOS -> RMB Linux Android -> BTC
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      27 October 2020 @ 22:05
      This is a great analogy as the philosophy is similar as well!
  • CF
    Cynthia F.
    27 October 2020 @ 20:48
    I have high regard for Louis and his views on investment issues, but he was so off the mark on Covid that it was very hard to listen past that point. El Paso and Wisconsin hospitals are past capacity. This summer South Texas had hospitals that were overflowing and so many bodies they had to bring four refrigerator trucks to handle the bodies coming out of the local hospital. Just this week a friend's 34 year old daughter died of Covid after making the fatal mistake of going to a restaurant, yet Louis thinks this is nothing to worry about. I hope he doesn't learn the hard way with someone he loves dying that this isn't the flu. The comments from others in this group that only unhealthy people die are just ignorant. Stick to investments and stop being armchair epidemiologists.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    27 October 2020 @ 20:40
    This interview I am watching and I am finding this interview of criticism to the lock downs. I think this interview lacks compassion. As said below there are cases of people young and in any event why we should not avoid the death of people, whether ill or not? Please respect to the victims. If we can save life with social distancing we should do it.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    27 October 2020 @ 20:33
    I read comments about COVID. I have reports from young people and healthy in the ICU (one passed away already). Please do not downplayed the virus. I think there is something we are not being told.
  • MP
    Michael P.
    27 October 2020 @ 08:50
    My father in law passed away in May at a long term care facility in the southern U.S. He was 87 years of age and suffering for several years from dementia, lung cancer and a recent but mild case of Covid. When he passed, cause of death was listed as Covid. Not really the cause but health care facilities get higher government reimbursement rates if they list the cause of death as Covid. The numbers are political and also financial.
    • LS
      L S.
      27 October 2020 @ 19:56
      Don't tell that to the clowns above. They would blame the president for your dad's passing. Pathetic.
  • MR
    Marco R.
    27 October 2020 @ 17:59
    Mike Green is such a good Interviewer and that one was not easy. Great piece.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    27 October 2020 @ 17:14
    Wow, where to begin...CYA and excessive political-correctness, the Microsoft vs. Apple analogy, Chinese "empire" vs. nation, Ant Financial and AliPay, etc... Fantastic!
  • dw
    douglas w.
    27 October 2020 @ 02:19
    Usually Mike Green kills it, but Gave was so off on the covid thing with the pope needs to open churches, that it was time to go do something else with my evening.
    • SZ
      Sarjan Z.
      27 October 2020 @ 04:11
      Couldn’t agree more! Their info about Covid is just wrong!
    • JG
      Jave G.
      27 October 2020 @ 06:50
      Well, if nothing else, Covid kills the ability to listen to conversations...
    • RM
      Robert M.
      27 October 2020 @ 16:26
      Skip the Covid section, the conversation on China was worthwhile. Read the transcript to get through it quicker.
  • JC
    Jason C.
    27 October 2020 @ 02:51
    Comparison between Chinese bonds and German/Italian bonds in 1927 leads me to say again: will the US and China have a hot war, and, if so, when? Also, assuming China is able to exert greater control over Taiwan, then China gets the win on semiconductors as well, at least regarding their manufacture (and it's much easier for China to spawn fabless chipmakers than it is to do the reverse). Great interview as always with Mike Green. I find myself hoping he's correct, but fearing Gave is right.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      27 October 2020 @ 16:25
      This is an underappreciated risk. China is a wild card when it comes to their interested in controlling both Taiwan and the East China Sea.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    27 October 2020 @ 04:49
    Holy shit this is just ridiculous. I live in Vietnam, bordered by China, the size of California with a population of almost 100 million, and we have had less than 1200 cases and 45 deaths and been back to normal for months. No tourist allowed because America and Europe have a bunch of idiots that won't take the steps necessary to halt the spread of the virus. They talk about freedoms, but we wear helmets on motorbikes, seatbelts in cars and you can kill someone at 17 (military) but can't have alcohol until 21. We have a lot of restrictions that no one has complained about. Both of you are missing the point, the virus is controllable, it takes a rational, selfless population who will compromise for the good of all.
    • DS
      David S.
      27 October 2020 @ 05:39
      Bruce D. - Thanks. The consequences of the inalienable right to leave one COVID area in August and vacation in another COVID area and return with even more COVID has consequences. During the middle of WWII how many northern Europeans spend August on the Mediterranean? It is possible to open the economy and keep the cases low if compliant. Every day we will get better at treating COVID. The fact that it is so contagious even without symptoms is a real problem compared to other viruses. DLS
    • RM
      Robert M.
      27 October 2020 @ 16:21
      Has the asset boom since 1982 created a generation of privilege, a term that my fellow boomers hate to hear? As you noted about WW2, the population had to live on ration cards. Sure many grumbled, but we stood together as a nation to tackle the war. Sacrifices were made with lives, careers, and daily living to fight the enemy. Collective sacrifice is lacking in the country. As we urbanize, we care less about our neighbors. Mauldin recently released a report that showed Covid as the second highest in transmission rates and second deadliest disease over the last century only surpassed by the Spanish Flu. So as the head of infectious disease at Vanderbilt just stated, quit whining and put on a mask. Let's follow the Asian example and get the economy back on its feet.
  • OA
    Olivier A.
    26 October 2020 @ 19:08
    "countries that didn't go into full cataclysm mode, whether Sweden or Japan, didn't end up anywhere worse than anybody else" That'd be a good story if it wasn't completely false. Sweden's death / capita: ~10X that of Finland and Norway, ~5X that of Denmark. Sweden's GDP decline in 2020 = worst of Scandinavia by far. Sources: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
    • KF
      Kalen F.
      26 October 2020 @ 22:06
      Agree 100%. This narrative that Sweden has the best COVID outcome on both health and the economy is just factually wrong and its constantly held out. When I hear the Sweden argument I immediately discount the person as either disingenuous or ignorant. Not a good start for my view of old Louis.
    • JL
      John L.
      27 October 2020 @ 16:17
      Countries that listened to scientists and had a clear consistent policy from leadership did better health wise and economically.
  • MG
    Mark G.
    27 October 2020 @ 16:05
    Thank you RV for another fantastic discussion, worth the “price of admission”. Kudos to you for maintaining the quality of this content during COVID.
  • JL
    John L.
    27 October 2020 @ 15:52
    How about “Cover Your Face”. Not having a consistent, coordinated message and strategy from the Federal government has prolonged and IS prolonging this virus and its impact on the economy. Not only lack of leadership, but having states compete for resources, PPE, while the Federal government is competing for the same and inserting middlemen in the process and playing Red states against Blue states. This has been mismanaged and prolonged by Trump and choosing poor political strategy over science.
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    27 October 2020 @ 15:34
    Skip past the COVID discussion at the beginning. Messrs. Gave Green continue to explore the C.Y.A. thesis elsewhere in the interview after the COVID example.
  • KH
    Kavi H.
    27 October 2020 @ 15:31
    Love hearing Louis Vincent Gave speak. From his viewpoints and analysis you can tell that he has had an extremely international upbringing & having that ground zero exposure to HK / China is so useful in global macro these days. I wonder if he feels the world is vulnerable to export led inflation from China.
  • AV
    Alexander V.
    27 October 2020 @ 14:29
    To Louis Vincent Gave: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
  • VF
    Vassilios F.
    27 October 2020 @ 05:38
    America's CYA obsession exploded when McDonalds lost the "hot coffee" lawsuit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liebeck_v._McDonald%27s_Restaurants It's terrible how CYA has crept into every aspect of life. Just a quick example: if you have a swimming pool, you now think twice to let your kids' friends over, lest they slip, fall, sue, and then take your house in a settlement. No offense to anyone in the legal profession here, but a good chunk of lawyers are a tapeworm on the American economy and spirit.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      27 October 2020 @ 13:34
      An interesting fact about that case is that the plaintiff was only looking for a few thousand dollars for medical expenses but McDonalds was so abstinent that she had to get a lawyer after they only offered $800. Most of the money won came from the jury penalizing McDonalds for the very CYA attitude that was accelerated by the result. Similarly McDonalds lost its trademark for Big Mac in Europe after suing some small restaurant in Ireland. Avoid the lawyers if you can.
  • SZ
    Sarjan Z.
    27 October 2020 @ 04:10
    Did they not read the new study published by Columbia showing 130k deaths in the US could have been prevented?!? Facts are facts not opinions “no one could have done anything”.
    • JD
      John D.
      27 October 2020 @ 13:20
      Did you not read it? They just built a crude spreadsheet that calculated the difference in fatality between the US and six other high income countries, population adjusted. Then they speculated that this was caused by difference in non-pharma interventions. No actual science done here, just an opinion piece. These are popping up like weeds all over the place. Such model-based research is not research, it's choose your own adventure pseudoscience. Allow me the leeway to assume my conclusions and I can build you a model/spreadsheet that will conclude anything you wish.
  • AI
    Andras I.
    27 October 2020 @ 13:03
    A peaceful collision of minds - brilliant! Whatever the outcome, hope to revisit the theme in a year. As a side note about stimulus: Jeff Snider had a piece fairly recently about how China has learned after 2008 and 2015 that the QE style stimulus is a waste of time and refrained from it.
  • MB
    Mark B.
    27 October 2020 @ 12:57
    Re ANT going public.... My supposition is that both of you are correct in that the motivations and outcomes share a symbiotic relationship where good fortune or perhaps dumb luck suggest each of your opinions can be accomodated by the factual reality of the outcome and ultimately the motivation is of less significance than where it leads and takes us.... Only the future and its correlated prescient forecasting tool called "hindsight" will confirm all(!) but as noted I think neither of your arguments or positions are mutually exclusive nor deny the other.... China needs $ inflows and an opportunity to influence trade and reduce US dominance and hegomeny has to be worth a try from their perspective irrespective of whether it succeeds or not. Finally from my perspective the unaddressed topic that trumps (thats with a small "t" not a capital "T"!) is Raouls favorite Demographics and indisuptably and seeting aside all other issues on this subject China has an insurmountable problem. Meantime as ever I thank you both for elightenment that I wouldnt otherwise remotely have thought to consider nor gain. With grateful thanks therefore to you both, Mark Banister.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    27 October 2020 @ 01:44
    About a dozen "out of the box" (bullish) ideas on China, Gave's best interview yet.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      27 October 2020 @ 01:54
      One caveat Louis: China may be ahead of the U.S. in fintech and CBDCs; except ... You are leaving out Bitcoin. Bitcoin, BCH, BSV and other stable money supply cryptos will suck cash away from the Chinese block like vacuum cleaners, They are America's ace in the hole; and may well be the reason America's regulators are warming up to the crypto space.
    • JC
      Jason C.
      27 October 2020 @ 03:00
      @Peter D. Interesting take. I've assumed that the US would become hostile to Bitcoin as the USD's dominance is threatened, but if they see Bitcoin as an opportunity to crush an increasingly popular RMB then I think that could definitely have huge impact. The US would need to invest significantly more in mining, however. Most Bitcoin mining occurs in China, which would leave Bitcoin open to a 51% attack.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      27 October 2020 @ 11:43
      Jason C. - A 51% attack on Bitcoin or any digital asset that is regarded as a currency (there is already talk of this) by a government, or government backed consortium, will soon be regarded as an act of war. Even today, a 51% attacker of the size required to take down Bitcoin would be easily identifiable (you can't hide that much equipment), and a hard fork could quickly be set up.
    • RI
      R I.
      27 October 2020 @ 11:49
      Hard fork? 51% attack? Bitcoin is a joke. Buy gold. Much easier.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    26 October 2020 @ 21:18
    Did I just hear him say Covid hospitalizations are low? Must have been taped a while ago. Netherlands is air flighting people to Germany. Idaho doing the same to Seattle. Midwest rural hospitals are nearing capacity. Know in my city, hospitalizations have crossed the critical point. People think it is about death rates, but it is about not overwhelming hospitals and healthcare workers.
    • RI
      R I.
      26 October 2020 @ 22:06
      Well said.
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      26 October 2020 @ 22:38
      Indeed, statement did not age well.
    • DS
      David S.
      27 October 2020 @ 11:42
      We live in a world of over statement to prove a point. The CYA thesis is correct. By over stating the case you can lose sight of the main argument. DLS
  • GH
    Guy H.
    27 October 2020 @ 10:48
    Socialist something something, religious freedom, covidisinfo, [click off], [disappointment]. Oh well - like all of us RV isn't perfect.
  • MC
    Mike C.
    27 October 2020 @ 09:51
    I'm very surprised nobody in the comments has made reference yet to the recent interview with Michael Pettis. There are some stark contrasts between the views of Michael and Vincent mostly in relation to the longer term consequences and effectiveness of China's social, economic and monetary policies.
  • KF
    Kalen F.
    26 October 2020 @ 22:42
    Damn this guy is really going off the deep end. "Churches should have stayed open" lol. Yes, let's listen to religious leaders and not the scientific and medical community. While I agree this debate needs to be held, it would be nice to hear from someone who has a stronger grasp of the medical and health issues which need to be factored into the debate. There are potential for long term health implication of this virus that completely negates the argument it's like a "flu".
    • SL
      Sean L.
      27 October 2020 @ 07:58
      Thats rubbish - all viral infections have the risk of longer term health issues. The mortality rate on covid is about the same as a bad flu. Check the graphs provided with the annual deaths & this year is not much different to any other year. Find Ivor Cummins on youtube - he has a ton of statistical & data driven info
  • mc
    miroslaw c.
    27 October 2020 @ 07:23
    there is an easier explanation yet about why China didn't need to stimulate after their Covid lockdown, is because IT WORKED! something that USA will not be able to duplicate.
  • RA
    Rohit A.
    27 October 2020 @ 06:12
    This has to be one of the most insightful, useful and thought provoking interviews I have seen on this channel. Very good debate with both sides of the argument presented. Thank you well done.
  • IM
    Indranath M.
    27 October 2020 @ 04:27
    There are incorrect facts and more wrong logic in this piece. My spouse having cancer or heart disease does not increase my risk of having those conditions but spouse having Covid increases my risk of catching that manifold. Very disappointed with this interview.
    • DS
      David S.
      27 October 2020 @ 05:50
      Indranath M. - I liked the interview very much, although the damage of COVID is understated. The paper was published on October 8th and may reflect more the tone of the time. Now the numbers are rising, and it may be out of control in parts of the US, UK, and Europe. On one point, China certainly controlled the spread of the virus much better than the west. Certainly China economy is in much better shape in connection with the pandemic’s effects. DLS
  • ds
    durgesh s.
    27 October 2020 @ 05:48
    Extraordinary stuff , never seen two great guys disagree so gracefully and give so many wonderful insights One of your best conversations among many good ones ......Congrats keep it up
  • CC
    Charlie C.
    27 October 2020 @ 04:02
    Mr Gave asked an excellent question that we all ignore about RMB, but Mike wins because of his knowledge and sheer intellect. Analogies help us understand, but they often mislead us into incorrect conclusions.
  • RR
    Research R.
    27 October 2020 @ 03:34
    How can one take themselves seriously as an "intellectual" when they choose to conflate socialism with passive investing? How can an allocator be called out as a socialist for choosing a product that on average delivers better returns? Is this not obviously profit maximising behaviour? Perhaps instead of waxing lyrically on these extreme intellectual ideas Mr Gave would be better off devoting his enormous capacity for thought towards figuring out how to manage $100s of billions actively whilst still delivering outperformance.
  • RI
    R I.
    27 October 2020 @ 01:20
    What’s with your covid hairdo? Too afraid of going to a barber?
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      27 October 2020 @ 02:56
      Haha - yes in stark contrast to his view that Covid is ‘nothing to worry about!’
  • SB
    Sunil B. | Contributor
    27 October 2020 @ 00:33
    First Mike Green interview on RV or any other channel that I am having to fast forward. I am trying to finish this but it us painful
    • RM
      Robert M.
      27 October 2020 @ 01:08
      Read the transcript. You can get through it quicker.
    • SB
      Sunil B. | Contributor
      27 October 2020 @ 02:11
      Wish I did not post and now cannot delete. It was against my first principle if you did anything good to say say nothing. Also, I did not make myself clear the comment has anything to do with Mike's ability to interview and his intellect.
  • RI
    R I.
    27 October 2020 @ 01:46
    As an institutional investor, I’ve tried Gavekal and dropped it as it’s not worth it. Not even close.
  • PK
    Philipp K.
    27 October 2020 @ 01:35
    Great stuff. Would have loved a few charts to underline the arguments
  • MS
    Mark S.
    27 October 2020 @ 01:10
    This was a rich discussion on a range of topics. I wished that you both would have continued on your first topic for a while longer, CYA and the destructive social implications as well as government control during the pandemic. This is a topic I have yet to hear, with the exception of this talk, in some detail and deserves more attention.
  • JA
    John A.
    26 October 2020 @ 12:46
    Re: the CYA section with COVID, the problem with this flu has always been the asymptomatic transmission. If it wasn't for that attribute of the virus, it would have been a lot easier to deal with. The overreaction has a lot to do with the fact that it is very hard to tell who to quarantine until after they have already spread the disease to others. Do that with enough size, and the medical systems of this country get overwhelmed. When you saw refrigerator trucks parked outside hospitals because the bodies were too numerous to deal with using onsite facilities, it is hard to argue against the actions taken back then. That was the line of thinking back in March. Since then, the only thing that seems to have changed is the lethality of the disease. I think if we get thru the next two months and we can demonstrate that we have collectively been better able to deal with avoiding deaths from COVID, then we can start to really unwind these policies. But I am not certain that good statistics of who is dying and in what percentage is being focused on at all right now. The virus seems more political than anything because of the election.
    • DD
      Darrell D.
      27 October 2020 @ 01:10
      I've found a really good data source here: https://rationalground.com not necessarily an endorsement, just sharing useful data...RV style!
  • DS
    David S.
    27 October 2020 @ 00:43
    I completely agree that CYA behavior is normal now and long before COVID Times. In the US everyone looks for the opportunity to sue anyone they can. When a decision is being made, the first question is will we be sued? For a politician it is will I be reelected. On the political side Mr. Pal's demographics comes into play with the demographic of 60+. The death rate is not the major issue. The lack of ICU beds is not the major issue. With real and fake news, the major questions for 60+ are will an ICU bed available for me and the perception that COVID will kill me too - it is personal. The money power and the voting power are in 60+ demographic. Charts can give you a rational approach, but the possibility of imminent death makes death real. COVID Times are an existential threat to the most powerful demographic. This was overcome in China with direct force. China closed down infected areas, and no one was allowed to leave. They tested, tracked, and traced so the rest of the country could keep economically open. The forced compliance by China was replaced with compliant populations along with testing tracking and tracing in Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand etc. These countries fought the two battle fronts of transparent science with more compliant populations. Compare this to many people in the US that still believe that the increase in COVID cases is fake news. DLS
    • SV
      Santiago V. | Contributor
      27 October 2020 @ 01:06
      Top comment.
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    27 October 2020 @ 00:44
    Two of the best. I saw Gave's paper published earlier on ZH, found it brilliant. Glad I have a saved PDF now, thanks.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    26 October 2020 @ 22:45
    The other people invited to real vision hold such outdated views of China that they are completely wrong, including Mike green and Kyle bass.
    • DD
      Darrell D.
      27 October 2020 @ 00:43
      Hi Cindy! Can you offer some other perspectives and/or resources regarding your view. I just want to learn. Thanks!
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    27 October 2020 @ 00:36
    I love listening to Mike. He has a great and thoughtful macro perspective. I also like Mike's perspective on the labor force being produced. The education system doesn't necessarily create a workforce aligned with factors of production. For example, in the 90s China and India were exporting engineers at their cost, but to the US benefit in factors of production. Iterations on this are complicated.
  • DD
    Darrell D.
    27 October 2020 @ 00:36
    I listened to this on my very long commute this morning. It was so intellectually engaging, that I missed one of my exits, and continued driving for 6 miles in the wrong direction without noticing. Maybe Mike's interviews should come with a disclaimer that you shouldn't operate equipment while listening. Every moment was fascinating. The CYA perspective of our officials handling of the COVID response makes perfect sense. I was particularly interested in the different paths to similar conclusions between Mike and his guest regarding the potential future of China. As other comments suggest...if it's Mike Green, I simply click, listen and come away with a wider and deeper perspective on things. I apologize for such a long comment that basically equates to a "thumbs up" with no other constructive criticism but what else can I say but thank you both! I love your minds.
  • NB
    Nicolas B.
    26 October 2020 @ 23:52
    I'm a simple man. I see mike green, i click
  • BG
    Brian G.
    26 October 2020 @ 23:47
    Excellent conversation gentlemen!!!!!
  • gj
    gail j.
    26 October 2020 @ 23:28
    Having worked with a number of Chinese clients in ed/industrial setting, I found them to be exceptionally motivated and hardworking. Sadly I did find a few "little emperors" in the last few years. A trend?? I hope not.
  • mf
    massimo f.
    26 October 2020 @ 23:09
    I wanna hear how Roaul folds this into his deflation scenario
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    26 October 2020 @ 16:04
    Sounds like Gavekal has a lot of money invested in China...don’t bite the hand that feeds you Ray, er, Louis...
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      26 October 2020 @ 22:32
      Just as a side comment, you do not need to agree with Louis, ether based on your beilive or based on his Chinese investment, but we should absolutely be thankful to him for sharing his views, which btw any good investor does, you do not need your echo chamber, you need to understand who is on the other side of the trade and why
  • VP
    Veselin P.
    26 October 2020 @ 14:45
    Very nice, 3 questions though: - Does the US winter start in March? He apparently has a full winter worth of covid statistics. - Do americans impose lockdowns during every flu season? Or is he comparing COVID with lockdown to flu without to reach the conclusion of IT being like a bad flu? - Isn't this video 6 months too early?
    • VP
      Veselin P.
      26 October 2020 @ 20:40
      Full disclosure - I loved the China debate as much as I hated the Covid commentary.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      26 October 2020 @ 21:24
      Does make one question his analytical skills. While it is OK to debate the reaction to Covid, Gave just brushes it off as CYA. Does he thing governments actually want to shut down businesses, forego tax revenues, lay off employees, cut back services? They are reacting to overflowing hospitals and advice from medical professionals. Not just a CYA exercise.
  • JT
    John T.
    26 October 2020 @ 20:34
    1. You are absolutely right about the CYA attitude and the problems with it in the US. 2. We dont have a shortage of STEM degrees, there just aren't as many good jobs for college grads relative to the number of graduates so their value in the workforce plummeted. Just like you mention with the asset management field, more of that is needed for good financial allocation but our CYA system pushes everything into passive. 3. The idea that we need many more people in trades like plumbers is also bogus. They get paid $40-$60k/year in Los Angeles which is not very good relative to basic costs of living. I work in construction and we have plenty of field guys, they just dont speak English for the most part. This is because of massive immigration and the destruction of our unions - these people live in overcrowded housing conditions with poor pay and benefits except for the top superintendents and foremen. These skilled trades are no longer places where a US-born citizen can look to find a lucrative career. 4. You are absolutely right that the biggest problem we have is the socialization of capital where only the big get access to investment and zombie companies are repeatedly bailed out. 5. As for China - they have grown markedly with their investments into modern factories and productivity. However, they do need to keep standards of living increasing in order to justify their power. This is partly to do with their ancient idea of "mandate from heaven" with its responsibilities that the supreme leader must live up to. They are not a democracy that has safety valves to relieve societal pressures such as 19th century Britain, so they are more prone to civil unrest like the European continental rules at that time. I would argue that in order to grow effectively while maintaining absolute power, they would need to follow the model of Bismarck with increasing social progressivism in wages and safety nets. Their society currently drives too many of their skilled workers to emigrate in order to succeed.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      26 October 2020 @ 21:16
      HVAC guys can make 6 figures in Nashville. Maybe you live in the wrong city. Companies here have a hard time finding people to work the trades.
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    26 October 2020 @ 16:14
    Dune. Desert Planet.
    • TE
      Tito E.
      26 October 2020 @ 20:53
      Spice flows for Mike
  • AB
    Amarildo B.
    26 October 2020 @ 20:41
    Very very good!!!
  • RL
    Ron L.
    26 October 2020 @ 20:40
    One of my fav discussion / (civil and productive) debate re China. Pls keep up this type of great content, thanks guys!
  • SV
    Santiago V. | Contributor
    26 October 2020 @ 20:30
    This discussion was a bifurcated example of solid and reasonable intellectualism and cognitive bias on risk. I haven't decided whether or not I love it (in it's totality) or hate it. I think that makes for a great interview because it forces me to challenge my own assumptions. That being said there are some loaded terms thrown around without consideration for hyperbole. Lots of hyperbole in the use of these loaded terms. When everything is socialist, nothing is.
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    26 October 2020 @ 19:48
    If China do something bad they get criticized, if they do something good they get criticized for having bad intentions 😐
  • TK
    Theodore K.
    26 October 2020 @ 19:48
    Fantastic discussion on Human Capital and its gross misallocation!
  • OA
    Olivier A.
    26 October 2020 @ 19:47
    Fantastic conversation about China!
  • WM
    William M.
    26 October 2020 @ 19:19
    An epic conversation between two very well-informed intellectuals. I really enjoyed it.
  • DS
    David S.
    26 October 2020 @ 19:14
    Mr. Green and Mr. Gave, Great discussion. Since both of you are much younger, brighter, quicker, and have a real-world impact, I would like to point out individual ideas/assumptions that seem inconsistent for your consideration one at a time. I am too old to synthesize. Hopefully, this may help make small changes in your thinking for the better. Firstly, if the market and index funds dropped 40% no one would care?? Passive indexers are happy when the market goes up. They will be angry when the market drops precipitously. They bleed just like active investors. They will demand change. Heads will roll. It would have happened this year, but the market was still overwhelmed with momentum and passive investments trades. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    26 October 2020 @ 18:31
    An excellent start to many discussions. Mr. Gave opened a whole new kettle of important fish that need to be debated individually. At the same time, the individual solutions effects on the whole need to be recognized. The major overarching current impediment is the classic - What is Truth?? Truth is defined now by what one wishes to believe. This is reinforced by friends/echo chambers in agreement without discussion of the belief. One cannot have a rational discussion without agreeing on facts and some of the rules of the game. The world was already in the soup of irrational beliefs before COVID Times. We now see many flaws in current beliefs. We need to generate the antithesis for each one and the summation enacted will be the new normal. This is simple Hegel at its best. As a small start, governments were/are not the cause of passive investments. Passive investment is not socialism. This was all done within the investment community. Governments and lobbyists have facilitated it thereafter. Hedge funds and active managers were charging "high" fees - thesis. The antithesis was simply passive investment in indexes. Mr. Green has shown that indexing has its own flaws and will also fail. IMO an important green shoot for capitalism is the private investment firms nurturing small companies to become big companies before going public. A second green shoot is all the new ways IPOs get on the stock exchanges and/or in pension funds. The value of the business is going to employees and investors. Wall Street’s race to capitalize on the initial value of the company is no longer a monopoly. Normally the thesis, antithesis and synthesis happen individually all the time. Now we just have a lot to deal with at one time because people have chosen to have, hold and promote irrational beliefs – both individually and collectively. DLS
  • LB
    Lukas B.
    26 October 2020 @ 17:07
    "at the risk of sounding callus" You're way fucking beyond that, buddy.
    • EK
      Emil K.
      26 October 2020 @ 18:02
      Here's another way of viewing it. Standards in the macro, compassion in the micro. Both gentlemen are discussing this issue from the macro level, from the perspective of a national leader responsible for millions. Applying expectations from the micro, the individual compassion we show for each case to the macro would be paralyzing, which seems to be the point of the interview. Standards, in the macro, mean people die. That's what is meant by, "at the risk of sounding (not being) callous." At least here on Earth, elsewhere I withhold judgement.
  • ES
    Edward S.
    26 October 2020 @ 17:54
    Mike Green is absolutely the best. Another A+ interview.
  • TS
    Tom S.
    26 October 2020 @ 17:47
    A minor point? Was the situation in NYC with bodies stored in reefer trucks just an CYA moment?
  • JA
    John A.
    26 October 2020 @ 14:27
    Louis seems to be convinced that China is going to lead the next 100 years like people in 1989 were convinced that Japan was going to lead the next 100 years. He acknowledges Mike's push back, but doesn't really seem to calculate any of it into his core beliefs, nor does he seem to have a view on how he could be wrong. He believes China is an empire. You don't get to be called an empire till you win a war. The British were an empire. America is an empire. Japan was an empire. Rome was an empire. China is a powerful country that has structural flaws, just like everyone else right now. Their data is difficult to take at face value, they have hundreds of "ghost cities" built with no one living in them, and more debt than people seem to recognize. And their currency is appreciating at a time when their reserve assets seem to be standing remarkably still. (see Jeff Snider's recent piece on it). I can see a world where China takes over as the growth engine via domestic consumption, but I can also see a world where China's demographics catch up with it and it becomes another Japan too. People shouldn't ignore the risks.
    • LB