Jeffrey Gundlach — Waiting for the Next Big Trade

Published on
October 9th, 2020
Duration
72 minutes


Jeffrey Gundlach — Waiting for the Next Big Trade

The Interview ·
Featuring Jeffrey Gundlach

Published on: October 9th, 2020 • Duration: 72 minutes

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has evolved his investment style over the years, and although he is still the "bond king", increasingly he has become multi-asset with a focus on getting the macro right. In this interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, Gundlach explains how he thinks about time frames, position sizing based on asset class, and how his style changes based on whether the market is alpha or beta driven. He also provides his current outlook, arguing that there is not much opportunity in this environment and that the most important thing at the moment is managing risk while patiently waiting for the next big trade. He also touches on timely topics like the potential for a wave of insolvency, why he believes we are in the midst of The Fourth Turning, his skeptical view of bitcoin, and why he is bullish on the dollar in the short term despite his highest conviction macro view being pronounced dollar weakness. Filmed on October 1, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • PB
    Paul B.
    30 November 2020 @ 02:26
    He is one of my Favorite Guys
  • MH
    Murray H.
    9 November 2020 @ 02:56
    Raoul, I hear you say "the bond market tells the truth". If you could put an in depth video about that thought and explain it to us here that would be great.
  • MW
    Marcus W.
    4 November 2020 @ 14:40
    Well done RP, this one is a cracker
  • tl
    tara l.
    28 October 2020 @ 04:05
    Thank you for the content. He has a brilliant mind and is so well spoken in his field.
  • HS
    Han S.
    28 October 2020 @ 00:24
    Great interview.
  • CC
    Cole C.
    24 October 2020 @ 19:12
    Impactful lessons I wont soon forget in addition with knowledge I will greatly benefit from. Much appreciated.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    21 October 2020 @ 17:21
    Gundlach is a great investor, but he doesn't understand Bitcoin - so like other investors like Buffett, he doesn't touch it. Works for me - I get to enjoy the benefits, and there's more for me if he doesn't participate.
  • JD
    Jeremy D.
    18 October 2020 @ 16:24
    Bitcoin is anonymous if you know how to use it. CoinJoin, PayJoin, etc etc. It's an advanced feature that not many people know how to use, but over time it will become better and transparent.
  • JC
    Jason C.
    11 October 2020 @ 21:14
    I find it extremely interesting that so many of these finance folks understand that people are angry at the institutions and believe they're resisting change because their disfunction benefits the elite, and this this will ultimately lead to a crisis. Is the Bond King not an elite? Raoul Pal seems like he's an elite. Who then are the elites that Gundlach is referring to who are resisting institutional change? Or why don't these elites (Gundlach and others) help fix the failing institutions that are pushing us toward crisis? Not trying to call anyone out, but I'm genuinely curious and haven't seen these questions discussed.
    • SO
      Sebastian O.
      12 October 2020 @ 12:37
      Had the same thought ... same with the comments about the finance people or the finance industry like if they are not part of it. Would be great to have more specification on who "they" are. But elites are not a homogenous group ... some are trying to share knowledge and insight ... what seems to be the reason RV exists.
    • JC
      Jason C.
      17 October 2020 @ 16:39
      I agree that RV (and Raoul Pal by extension, bless that man) seems to be doing it's part in creating change by simply making people aware. But is sharing knowledge and insight all they can do? Are "the good ones" shut out or obstructed from making real change? Seems like the elites with the most success in actuating change have opted in favor of replacing established institutions as opposed to reforming them (such as RV replacing, say, Bloomberg, CNBC or WSJ). What would that say about the future of our other elite institutions such as Harvard, the NYT, the banks, and even DC itself?
  • TB
    Tad B.
    17 October 2020 @ 07:50
    Brilliant interview! One of the best I’ve seen. Well done RV 👍
  • AT
    Andrea T.
    12 October 2020 @ 20:07
    Gundlach smashes the bitcoin store of value narrative with a simple and true insight. Nobody in her mind would store her wealth on a transparent ledger that literally anyone can see. Trustworthy money is private and fungible: bitcoin is neither. It's a surveillance tool. @Gundlach: monero tells the truth (it's scarce, permissionless, secure, digital cash) while being truly anonymous and untraceable :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8quGD9W7B2I&ab_channel=MoneroCommunityWorkgroup
    • LS
      L S.
      16 October 2020 @ 14:35
      Luckily, not many women are involved.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    15 October 2020 @ 20:08
    Jeffrey Gundlach – Waiting for Bitcoin
  • WW
    Woody W.
    9 October 2020 @ 17:12
    He hasn't studied Bitcoin and he has no idea about the fundamental of Bitcoin.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      9 October 2020 @ 17:17
      And though I have a small percent of NAV in BTC, it didn't bother me a bit as I listened to the interview. I didn't care that he has no idea about the fundamentals of BTC. This is an interview I'll listen to twice. (In fact, I'll rewatch after posting this comment.) Gundlach is awesome. I'm thankful that RV was able to get him back on. I'm already looking forward to the next interview.
    • JJ
      J J.
      9 October 2020 @ 17:20
      Fully agree, hasn’t clearly done any fundamental analysis about Bitcoin. Is he too well off and satisfied with his wealth / position to spend time on doing that? Not typically a good sign for a hedge fund manager focusing on and searching for greatest macro/alpha trades of the decades...
    • AD
      Alexander D.
      9 October 2020 @ 19:04
      I have a nice chunk of my NAV in BTC. The problem from a "fundamental" aspect is that there are not any cash flows. So for many people that is all that matters. They do not care about castles in the sky only about actual things they can understand/touch.
    • JA
      John A.
      9 October 2020 @ 21:32
      Just goes to show you that no one knows everything. He is older and the older you are the more of a negative bias you tend to have toward new things. Everyone gets to that point eventually.
    • NT
      Nicholas T.
      9 October 2020 @ 23:21
      The fundamental of Bitcoin is fine, and will grow, but what role Bitcoin plays in the global financial system as one expression of the fundamental behind it, is yet to be determined. So the old school guy has it right in the interview. Play it if you like, but as a macro play it's not actually on that level yet. I would think you have to earn macro status with time, almost by definition.
    • MM
      Melvyn M.
      10 October 2020 @ 01:29
      What’s wrong to sticking with ya knitting?! Does he not in the end agree it has presented a couple of good trade opportunities and that he’s neutral on bitcoin when pushed by raoul?
    • SZ
      Szar Z.
      13 October 2020 @ 05:45
      Bitcoiners forget that Gundlach types are the last to get in. If Bitcoin achieves its potential, the final transfer of wealth is when the world's richest are the last to adopt it.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      15 October 2020 @ 15:13
      I'd also challenge Raoul's belief that Bitcoin has a fixed base. Bitcoin has been forked (Bitcoin Cash) and may be forked in the future, possibly many times. Each for will typically release new units. It is quite possible that if a Bitcoin 2.0 or (3.0) can be made which is technologically superior, you will suddenly find your old Bitcoins are worth much less. If you believe that blockchain and crypto are technologically growing in leaps and bounds, then you shouldn't also believe that Bitcoin will remain dominant. How much would you pay for a TRS-80 computer or a Nokia 3310 phone? Not much I'm guessing.
  • TB
    Timothy B.
    9 October 2020 @ 18:02
    I like Gundlach's approach, but man his ego is hard to stomach.
    • DS
      David S.
      9 October 2020 @ 19:13
      I did not take it as ego but confidence built on years of being right and wrong. People who do not know never admit they are wrong. Mr. Gundlach often discussed and learned from his mistakes. DLS
    • GT
      Gene T.
      9 October 2020 @ 21:12
      Any self-made man worth a few billion is gonna have an ego, comes with the territory.
    • KL
      Kerrie L.
      10 October 2020 @ 03:48
      I think Gundlach is a straight forward no bs kinda guy. I really liked the story about how he got into his career, pretty humble and honest if you ask me. No one with an ego would admit they chose their profession from watching “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous” or admit the didn’t know what equities and fixed income were during a job interview.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      15 October 2020 @ 15:08
      I don't see it. Compared with other guests, he didn't talk about how important he is much at all. The only comment I found a little in bad taste was that he has 'people' who go to the supermarket for him.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    15 October 2020 @ 15:07
    Jeff Gundlach is a brilliant guy. Anything you can do to get him back for a third time in the next year or so would be great.
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    15 October 2020 @ 14:45
    I would love a RV segment where Jeff Gundlach and Steve Van Metre talk about their widely opposing views on the dollar. Great interview, thanks.
  • JN
    Jeffrey N.
    15 October 2020 @ 06:07
    A list of my takeaways from the interview with Jeffrey: • He understands time horizons. Longer is better, increases performance (likes 5 years). But clients are not that patient, so 18 months still gives you can edge. • He keeps it simple. Increasing twin deficits, a Fed that promises low interest rates and tolerates inflation leads him to a high conviction long-term bearish USD view. Basic technical analysis and sentiment readings are very important tools day-to-day. • He understands diversification. Single name investments should be kept small to avoid unforseable risks (1%). • Patience. Understands the markets will offer obvious, very exceptional opportunities infrequently (every 12 years or so). Those times he prepared to make an outsized allocation to take advantage. The rest of the time he uses careful risk management to capture market returns. *my favorite • Balanced advice. His recommendation to invest now using the perfect portfolio allocation may have seemed dull, but a smart way to diversify broadly when the future possible outcomes at this juncture appear so divergent.
  • DW
    David W.
    15 October 2020 @ 02:52
    Great interview!
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    14 October 2020 @ 20:01
    Another excellent conversation. Very clear, clean and transparent. Sounds like Jeff doesn't get out of the house much, but he sees the collapse of small business (and large) and he is waiting for single digit PE's to reenter the market. Very good. Thank you
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    14 October 2020 @ 19:31
    Raul, i noticed your pooch was not much interested in all the talk. Looks like a great dog.
  • DA
    Dagart A.
    14 October 2020 @ 15:45
    I feel like I couldn't get a clear picture on his short term dollar thesis. At one point he says he is bullish the dollar short term, but then says about 18 months is enough for the dollar to fall. So I guess he believes a strong dollar would happen in the next 12 months? And what are his indicators for the short term dollar rise? Does this line up with the ideas discussed in the Brent Johnson-Steven Van Metre interview?
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    14 October 2020 @ 14:06
    Fantastic interview. Excellent work all around
  • VK
    Viresh K.
    14 October 2020 @ 09:08
    Lol what a clown. If what they did was so illegal, get your lawyers to due the Fed... Also you had a lots of time to start buying, but didn't.
    • VK
      Viresh K.
      14 October 2020 @ 09:09
      Clown's harsh, but seriously, this illegal narrative is just ridiculous.
  • JC
    James C.
    13 October 2020 @ 21:54
    Super interview again. There is so much learning that comes out of the discussions with these expert traders. The format of the interviews really takes you on a learning journey. Listening to the traders background (including their trading mistakes), but also their current ideas about trading and macro outlook is great. Although they are all different they each have so much to offer. They seem to have a number of qualities in common including quickly learning from mistakes and also the ability to be really patient and wait for the right moments. Great channel.
  • JK
    Jon K.
    10 October 2020 @ 02:52
    2016 level Real Vision right there. Throughly enjoyed that, and hardly a stone unturned. Thanks Raoul.
    • JK
      Jon K.
      10 October 2020 @ 02:56
      ... and thank you Mr. Gundlach. :)
    • VS
      Vasil S.
      13 October 2020 @ 20:42
      Aside from the small matter of Gundlach going bearing on Bonds in late 2018 and calling for 4% yields lol
  • VS
    Vasil S.
    11 October 2020 @ 08:34
    Stopped watching with 25mins left as I got bored of Gundlach waxing lyrical about his many successful trades whilst conveniently omitting, with zero pushback from a sycophantic Raoul, this horror show: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/bond-king-gundlach-30-year-yield-could-rise-above-4percent-10-year-rate-to-3point6percent-before-this-move-ends.html Membership expires 21st October, will not be renewing.
    • VS
      Vasil S.
      11 October 2020 @ 09:30
      Started watching again until this gem: "I am not going to go to a grocery store, I have people for that".
    • JP
      Jason P.
      11 October 2020 @ 15:28
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0BTdo6qGwo
    • WT
      William T.
      11 October 2020 @ 16:39
      thats what you do when you have more money than time
    • JP
      Julia P.
      13 October 2020 @ 19:43
      And you probably hate Trump cuz he's a strong outspoken man. Everyone should be a soy boy from the Bay Area.
  • JP
    Julia P.
    13 October 2020 @ 18:24
    Great! Mr. Gundlach said that if US treasuries go negative it will destroy the world's financial markets. Further elaboration on this would have been interesting.
  • RS
    Rob S.
    13 October 2020 @ 17:18
    The best interview of all time - thanks Real Vison and Mr. Gundlach.
  • VB
    Vincent B.
    13 October 2020 @ 15:23
    I loved his empty bookcase
  • SG
    Sandy G.
    13 October 2020 @ 14:32
    Great interview. Awesome content - dr.g
  • RM
    Robert M.
    12 October 2020 @ 20:24
    Excellent interview, great points. Just finished watching for the second time. Key takeaways include 1. You may be right on the macro five years out, but the first two years may go against your thesis. So you can still be right and lose money. 2. Likes the Permanent Portfolio: 25% Cash, 25% Gold, 25% Stocks, 25% Bonds. Though he recommends doubling up on cash and avoiding bonds. 3. Sees ST as deflationary, but LT will be inflationary. 4. See a big stock crash coming in the next 2 years will you will be able to pick up deals at single PE multiples. One reason he likes cash. 5. Sees dollar in the ST as bouncing off recent downturn, but sees dollar declining LT due to massive deficit spending. Says trade imbalance is irrelevant as it is immaterial in dollar terms to deficit spending. 6. Sees liquidation phase coming (Raoul's thesis) over the winter. Believes bankruptcies and business closures will accelerate which leads to a market downturn. 7. Not a big fan of bitcoin. Likes tangible assets he can put in the trunk of his car. Invests in art, etc. Almost a survivalist bent on this thought. Wouldn't be surprised if he owned one of those billionaire silos out in the Midwest. For a guy that got into the biz by happenstance, this is well worth the listen. Whether he is talking his book or not (which does in many of his interviews), Jeffrey is someone worth listening.
    • SC
      Stanley C.
      13 October 2020 @ 12:16
      Great Job Robert, we should have you on every episode.
  • Jo
    James o.
    13 October 2020 @ 08:59
    Thoroughly enjoyed that, true pro, an air of calmness you only get after seeing decades of market action! Patience, Patience and more Patience.
  • MJ
    Matthew J.
    13 October 2020 @ 08:21
    What a legend!
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    13 October 2020 @ 05:46
    "I'm not gonna go to a grocery store or something, I've got people for that." LOL I just love this guy!
  • UB
    Umberto B.
    13 October 2020 @ 03:25
    Thumbs up big time!!
  • JB
    John B.
    12 October 2020 @ 22:37
    "That's a lot of tacos." One line to remember!
  • DG
    Dr G.
    12 October 2020 @ 19:12
    Solid interview and advice. Thank you for sharing your views
  • AP
    A P.
    12 October 2020 @ 17:49
    "What you you think welfare is? It's Universal Basic Income! It's just not Universal". Right. It's also not basic income. Pay cuts are going to be deflationary ... commodities are going to be inflationary, as are production shortages. How is this going to work, Gundy? "It's just a short-term liquidity issue, mate! But, look ... in the long term, I had nothing and now I have my stack. You can have it too!". Exhibit A for why we should recommend that people who are experts in a domain to stick with their domain. Amazing interview interspersed with 'unuseful' economic / political opinion. Still worth the time.
  • SC
    Sam C.
    12 October 2020 @ 15:06
    This is one of the better Interviews.
  • SY
    Steve Y.
    12 October 2020 @ 13:37
    How should one allocate their corporate pension right now with the options being money market, bonds and equities (US, CDN, global) funds. I'm a bitcoin investor but worried about pension account @ work given its 75% equity funds right now.
  • SS
    Shane S.
    12 October 2020 @ 09:38
    It’s humbling to hear Jeffrey’s story.
  • GR
    George R.
    12 October 2020 @ 07:29
    Great interview. It was interesting to hear how he got started. He is very technical and after all these years you can still see he has passion left for what he does. Love the fact he was honest about BTC not everyone needs to like it which is fine. Seems that lately people are pressured on owing it which shouldn’t be the case.
  • JC
    John C.
    12 October 2020 @ 04:00
    Awesome interview. To think Bill Gross claimed to be the "bond king" for so many years. I like the continued plug for exposure to non-financial assets and they have provided strong uncorrelated returns, but after his last high profile wave flag his residence was broken into and an undisclosed number of treasures stolen. I think we all need to budget 2% for security until this "4th turning" transpires. JCG
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    11 October 2020 @ 21:23
    Bitcoin is a trading sardine, Gundlach gets it, and treat it as such. Refreshing, respect.
    • KB
      Kurt B.
      12 October 2020 @ 03:13
      Respectfully, while JG undoubtedly “gets” many things, his opening observation about anonymity confirms just the opposite regarding BTC.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    12 October 2020 @ 02:47
    Great conversation with lots to digest! Thanks!
  • ss
    sunny s.
    11 October 2020 @ 23:44
    This interview was particularly easy on the eye, whoever set Jeffrey's camera and light is quite good. I wish more RV guests could also make an effort to have a sharper camera and a basic understanding of light and if possible camera framing. This comment of course is not trying to criticise any of the other guests on their experience, wisdom or insight, just purely an observation on the aesthetics of a video. Not everyone is gonna have a "set-design" quite like Raoul and Jeffrey have going on here, but better light (usually soft and/or natural) can definitely add so much more value and it holds one's attention. Really enjoyed the interview.
  • pt
    popejumpingjohnpaul t.
    11 October 2020 @ 16:50
    gundlach says welfare has made things worse (classic rich man thinking) but states with proper welfare systems are faring much better than the US which looks like it will be the first developed world country to 'achieve' regression on numerous basic measurements of human development and welfare.
    • JC
      Jason C.
      11 October 2020 @ 20:52
      I'm not against welfare whatsoever, but I think there's a good argument to be made that the way the US has done some of its welfare has entrenched the problems that caused people to need to the welfare in the first place - which has then resulted in more people needing the welfare. And regardless of whether welfare is positive, negative, or neutral, I'm convinced that welfare is just papering over the systemic issues that need to just be overhauled if we're to make real progress.
  • WT
    William T.
    11 October 2020 @ 16:41
    i will refer back to this interview once a week
  • JV
    Jerry V.
    11 October 2020 @ 13:44
    Hearing this interview I am so glad I am invested in digital assets. Bitcoin, ADA, XRP & VET
  • AS
    Alejandro S.
    11 October 2020 @ 12:02
    Great Job Raoul, I have known Jeff personally by investing in Doubleline right when they started and I have never been able to hear him speak in these term. So transparent, and down to earth when to many he comea accross as a know it all.
  • PR
    Peter R.
    11 October 2020 @ 10:43
    Great conversation, so much more interesting how Raoul gets to his process, timeframe and way of investing vs just views on markets - find it much more insightful to learn from best in class investor process. I could just listen to CNBC for views. speakers + this angle is where I find RV is different. Please keep it up
  • DF
    David F.
    11 October 2020 @ 09:56
    Really well worth the watch. So enlightening.
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    10 October 2020 @ 15:24
    What Mondrian do you have on your wall?
    • MF
      Mike F.
      11 October 2020 @ 06:52
      On his wall... Not on his wall ... On his wall... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-art-theft-idUSBRE88N0WI20120924 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Gundlach#Home_burglary_and_recovery_of_art
  • PB
    Paul B.
    11 October 2020 @ 06:25
    Excellent. Two smart guys trading data, always on the lookout. I'm in the right crowd.
  • LW
    Lorenz W.
    11 October 2020 @ 06:24
    Seems Mr. Grundlach is generally waiting for the market to come down. I wonder what he’d say to my strategy, which is buying a 50% position in defensive dividend stocks that were beaten down by Covid and other reasons. Examples: O, STOR, WELL, KHC, BEPC, MDLZ, T, ENB, RDS, etc. those I feel rep good value ATM
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    11 October 2020 @ 05:21
    "LTCM should have been called 'Short Term Capital Management'; They didn't even survive 5 years!" Brilliant ! Under-rated effects of LTCM; who was it who said (on RVTV) that bailout was the beginning of the end. The first FED interference in the capital markets leading us to where they are now.... Corporate Socialism. And this has ongoing for >20years. How much longer to go? JG says 3-5yrs....
  • FK
    Fred K.
    10 October 2020 @ 04:26
    doesn't get BTC.
    • NB
      Nick B.
      10 October 2020 @ 11:50
      BTC has been a nice idea. So nice regulators will continue to marginalise it! then bring in their own! And then really clamp down on any other Crypto..... full stop.... at least buy some Pizza’s with it whilst you still can
    • AB
      Andrew B.
      11 October 2020 @ 04:53
      Nick B doesn't get it either. Maybe ill buy Nick's house for double the ask just because I feel bad for him when it hits 250k
  • BC
    Burton C.
    11 October 2020 @ 04:27
    A quick shout out to the Permanent Portfolio fund (PRPFX) Jeff mentioned it twice. Credit should go to the great and gentlemanly Harry Browne, one of the great investment writers and thinkers ever. He came up with the concept and wrote a book on it. It's a means to protect capital in every scenario one can think of. BTW I highly recommend reading Harry's first book, NYT best seller "How you can profit from the coming devaluation" Written in 1970. Nothing new under the sun actually as everything he said then is as true today and is coming down the pike.
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    11 October 2020 @ 03:23
    Great stuff. Really enjoyed.
  • DH
    Dominick H.
    10 October 2020 @ 03:24
    I'm one of the few thumbs down, here's why: - I watched it with high expectation for two of the brilliant minds in macro business. Raoul did a great job in this interview, Jeff told some interesting plays in his past, but didn't really reveal any actionable insights for the future. - All the macro themes he mentioned were already well covered at RV, i.e. Fed bailout of TripleB, Junk bonds; big tech bubble but cannot short; bonds un-investable due to low yield and low vol; US equity will eventually crash, but could be several years; upcoming business recession; fourth turning; etc. NONE of these are new to RV community - What's the single best idea for the next 18 months? He basically brushed it off with some simple portfolio allocation idea. Come on, who would put 25% in bonds next 18 months with close to zero yield and low vol, basically bond at this stage can no longer play its role of asset diversification and risk management. - I'm sure Jeff's firm and his personal investment is well positioned for the election, next 6 months or even 18 months based on his extensive research. He didn't share any ideas in this interview. To be fair to him, he's not obligated to do so, but it's a waste of our time.
    • JS
      Jon S.
      10 October 2020 @ 08:56
      He cannot disclose his ideas to RV. He has certainly an edge for a millionaire trade but will not tell you exactly how to allocate it. Now you have at least 12 months to work and research and find it yourself. I think he has given good hints. I totally disagree in that is a waste of time. With old due respect, RV actionable ideas are sometimes on TV Plus and mostly on RV Pro. I think this video for essential is a very good one.
    • DH
      Dominick H.
      10 October 2020 @ 16:40
      @ Jon S. I agreed with your comments. My 'waste of time' comments were not appropriate, I took it back. I actually enjoyed the interview, just that i had a different expectation.
    • TW
      Troy W.
      11 October 2020 @ 01:37
      He actually hinted that 2 allocations of cash might be preferable to 25% bonds if you re-watch. Gold, Equities and 2allocations of cash i.e. 50% at least in the near term.
    • TW
      Troy W.
      11 October 2020 @ 01:40
      And more important than actionable info is the investing mindset. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish.....well you know the rest : )
  • TL
    Tony L.
    10 October 2020 @ 05:21
    What will be the catalyst for stocks to get to single digit P/E?
    • TW
      Troy W.
      11 October 2020 @ 01:34
      I still think the catalyst will come from the debt market and will set fire to everything.
  • MV
    Mathieu V.
    11 October 2020 @ 00:50
    Absolutely brilliant itw. Just going back on the bitcoin thing and the fact that Jeffrey Gundlach think it was supposed to be anonymous. Actually in the white paper it's written black on white and I quote "...Some linking is still unavoidable with multi-inputtransactions, which necessarily reveal that their inputs were owned by the same owner. The riskis that if the owner of a key is revealed, linking could reveal other transactions that belonged tothe same owner." It has never been designed to be anonymous ! It's a myth !
    • TW
      Troy W.
      11 October 2020 @ 01:31
      That's true. The problem is that the myth gained so much momentum that it became the main marketing vehicle for Crypto for a long period of time. Hollywood assisted in that also.
  • TW
    Troy W.
    11 October 2020 @ 01:29
    I can't get enough of this content. I feel like I'm chewing over every word. Thanks RV.
  • RT
    Richard T.
    10 October 2020 @ 23:26
    Working at home = Lose you job: Lose your home
  • AH
    Allan H.
    10 October 2020 @ 22:46
    High quality content. Cheers Raoul.
  • WC
    William C.
    10 October 2020 @ 20:10
    Fantastic discussions. Easy, genuine send straightforward dialogue. Great stuff.
  • JF
    Jason F.
    9 October 2020 @ 23:16
    Really great interview, hopefully we can all enjoy a Mondrian on our wall at some stage in life :-)
    • JG
      Jave G.
      10 October 2020 @ 19:25
      I've got some Turners on my wall. The fact that they're $10 prints doesn't really take away from the aesthetic pleasure.
  • BC
    Brente C.
    10 October 2020 @ 16:52
    Fantastic interview, tone, back and forth.
  • JE
    Jonathan E.
    10 October 2020 @ 16:16
    superb - highly enjoyable and informative.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    10 October 2020 @ 10:16
    For such an icon, so down to earth and talks in a simple straightforward manner. Superb interview.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    10 October 2020 @ 08:52
    The best ever video I have ever watched in any platform ever.
    • EK
      Eduard K.
      10 October 2020 @ 09:44
      Agree! Absolutly great thinker!
  • AI
    Andras I.
    10 October 2020 @ 07:39
    Laurel or Yanny sounds like FinTwit discussing if QE is inflationary
  • DC
    David C.
    10 October 2020 @ 06:56
    Excellent video! This is the kind of video i've signed up RV for. Thank you :)
  • ds
    durgesh s.
    10 October 2020 @ 06:42
    Excellent Interview , Gundlach has spoken very often but this one was different Keep it Up
  • RM
    Ron M.
    9 October 2020 @ 15:15
    Awesome interview! Funniest line though... Mondrian > Bitcoin Long live the [Bond] King!
    • JP
      Julia P.
      10 October 2020 @ 05:25
      But he needs a crown like the other Bond King
  • KL
    Kerrie L.
    10 October 2020 @ 04:40
    Gundlach actually gave actionable advice that anyone can apply. Very helpful, thank you!
  • CN
    Cotter N.
    10 October 2020 @ 04:28
    Good one.
  • FK
    Fred K.
    10 October 2020 @ 04:03
    from the sp500 to the sp6.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    10 October 2020 @ 03:38
    Wow.
  • WJ
    Willie J.
    10 October 2020 @ 03:25
    exceptional - this was worth my entire subscription... well done to the team for getting this lined up. a true landmark for the growth in the profile of RV.
  • JN
    Jill N.
    10 October 2020 @ 02:50
    This interview lived up to it’s length of the interview , all 1’s , firsts in every way from the Superb Interviewee , the perfect Interviewer, the sheer wisdom shared , all simply and eloquently discussed. Thank you Raoul & RV , you give so much by educating , empowering and engaging us in your wide ranging discussions.
  • OP
    Oso P.
    10 October 2020 @ 02:50
    this interview was enlightening. one of my favorites so far.
  • WB
    William B.
    10 October 2020 @ 02:50
    Wow!! Other comments have already said it all...
  • OC
    O C.
    9 October 2020 @ 21:04
    A bit concerning how happy Raoul looks when he talks about the coming pain many will experience. Almost like, "yeah, these people are going to suffer and I'm going to profit off of it". Been noticing this recently in his interviews. Other than that, excellent interview.
    • GT
      Gene T.
      9 October 2020 @ 21:08
      Relax. The man has a camera in his face multiple hours per day. Not fair to examine every expression for appropriateness.
    • af
      andrew f.
      10 October 2020 @ 01:31
      That's unfair. I don't think Raoul would have established RV if he wasn't genuinely trying to protect people from the bullshit that the likes of Jim Cramer spews.
  • af
    andrew f.
    10 October 2020 @ 01:27
    Absolutely loved it. So much good stuff in this interview Raoul. I particularly liked the segment about market memory; Jeffrey's expertise, acknowledging the role of mindfulness or "gut feel" of the market that he has developed over decades from prior experiences. This is true of all professions and demonstrates the value of "doing the knowledge".
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    9 October 2020 @ 17:09
    Question for Jeff, Regarding the permanent portfolio. What do you think about the aspect of the cash and bond portions in the permanent portfolio losing purchasing power over the next 5-10 years relative to the nominal debasement of currencies(most/to all currencies)? How would you solve this issue(if at all)? Short term trading/ short the bond market/ additional commodity exposure? Other strategies that would add value to this portfolio model?
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      9 October 2020 @ 17:19
      An aspect of the permanent portfolio is the diversification. There are scenarios where if the cash and bond allocations go down in price, either or both gold and equities go up in price.
    • MC
      Mathieu C.
      9 October 2020 @ 19:14
      The point of that defensive portfolio is that it is highly liquid while keeping some exposure and I can only assume JG views is that he has greater outcome to buy equities or as a matter of fact anything else (he didn't mention it but it could be also bonds) later at a heavy discount to make large gains and compensate any other outcome in being patient. That scenario compares to an hypothetical sharp rise of the stock market or an erosion of purchasing power over 10 years which is way weaker for someone who has made catching bottoms and highs his favorite hobbies. Just the feeling of not participating to one of a few greatest buying opportunity and being caught off guard is not something conceivable, while for some reasons underperforming the current trend and playing defensive is all but rational. He also mentioned he thinks this outcome should happen sooner than later, thus his positioning. Finally someone like him is probably not really concerned about relative debasement of US dollars more than that (if it ever happens). He's an American who earns and spend dollars. Why would he worries about its value compare to Japanese Yen or Thai Baht other than an opportunity choice as a financial decision or to save a few bucks for his next holidays trip which he will use a private jet to reach anyway.
    • DS
      David S.
      10 October 2020 @ 00:23
      I believe Mr. Gundlach said it was interesting now. Maybe more cash and less long-term bonds. The 25% stock allocation is a little rich for now. He is not looking at it as a permanent portfolio. He is looking at the allocation for now. He will keep updating his investment horizon and change appropriately. DLS
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    9 October 2020 @ 23:38
    Can someone explain the Yianni Loro computer stuff that Jeffrey Gundlach refers to!?
    • CD
      Conor D.
      10 October 2020 @ 00:08
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDiXQl7grPQ
  • dw
    douglas w.
    9 October 2020 @ 17:31
    Gundlach's thoughts surrounding bitcoin were entertaining: "I like things that I can put in the trunk of my car" (Gold and precious stones) "I'd rather have my Mondrian on the wall then an entry on a digital ledger". dude is oldschool but I give him props!
    • DS
      David S.
      9 October 2020 @ 23:45
      Know what makes life worthwhile for yourself and others. DLS
  • MD
    Matt D.
    9 October 2020 @ 23:23
    Brilliant interview. Thanks Jeff, and Raoul. So many great comments, insights! "I don't really believe in Bitcoin"! Ha, but nice comeback Raoul. One great insight is emotional memory. I think the thumbs down must be hearing Laurel not Yanny? Odd to me (the voting).
  • OA
    Olivier A.
    9 October 2020 @ 22:57
    Fanstastic interview. Absolutely great.
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    9 October 2020 @ 22:54
    Emotional Memory, equals "Do not put your hand in the electricity saw because...''. So next time you know when your hand it is even close.
  • ly
    lena y.
    9 October 2020 @ 22:45
    Wow I enjoyed it so much!
  • DS
    David S.
    9 October 2020 @ 22:36
    I think the insolvency phase is a helluva lot closer than people think.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    9 October 2020 @ 22:02
    15 min into it and already love it. Thank you Raoul and Jeffrey.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    9 October 2020 @ 07:07
    His Bitcoin view makes sense since he’s really wealthy. What I found interesting though was that his perception was that Bitcoin was about anonymity, and he was not interested based on that. Which makes me think that Bitcoin has some work to do on it’s image to be about a store of value and a diversification investment.
    • MK
      Melissa K.
      9 October 2020 @ 08:38
      He also doesn’t do his own grocery shopping so his perception is obviously skewed...
    • IO
      Igor O.
      9 October 2020 @ 15:01
      Bitcoin is quite far from its original vision.
    • JS
      Jared S.
      9 October 2020 @ 15:46
      First of all - so much respect for Jeffrey - need to bring him on as much as possible. But his seemingly naive Bitcoin view reinforces why I think Raoul and many bulls are right that the massive upside is indeed real - there are still a lot of very smart people who haven’t done proper due diligence and research on the asset class bc they automatically write it off for any number of reasons (scam, bubble, not physical, not anonymous in Jeffrey’s case). It's still very fringe and we're far from a tipping point of adoption in portfolios. Very similar to when the internet was first created - a lot of smart people said it was a bubble and predicted it would fail (see Seth Godin post below), probably because they didn't spend enough time to try and really understand it. Bitcoin, like the internet, is not intuitive at all unless you do a deeper dive into the space (reading the Bitcoin Standard, Digital Gold, Lyn Aldyn's pieces, etc - I think most people haven’t truly gone below the surface to try to understand it. I think this is a big reason why bitcoin hasn’t popped yet when all the stars are seemingly alligning for it to 5-10x again from hear (recent halving / S2F model, massive twin deficits, MicroStrategy investment etc). But once more people start educating themselves and begin to really understand Bitcoin it’s off to the races. What I struggle with is should Bitcoin be separate from your 25% cash position or treated more like cash/gold. Even though I’m bullish over the medium-long term, how will this perform if we see US equities trading at a high single digits PE, especially if there is much more monetary/fiscal stimulus in this environment? It's tough sitting on cash waiting to deploy into Bitcoin on a significant correction with the assymetric trade off BTC offers as well as the ideal backdrop we're looking at right now for it. https://seths.blog/2019/04/i-was-wrong-2/ "We get stuck defending what we already decided. Because it feels easier to defend than it does to be wrong. In 1993, in my role as founder of an internet company, I rejected the idea of the world wide web. I saw Mosaic (and then Netscape) and decided it was stupid, a dead end, a technology not worthy of our tiny company’s time. That decision cost me a billion dollars. Within nine months, I saw what others were seeing. I saw the power of widespread connectivity and how it was more powerful than a centralized host. It still wasn’t easy to say, “I was wrong.”
    • WG
      Wade G.
      9 October 2020 @ 21:49
      Wow, Jared, my biggest mistakes pale in comparison to what u described in your last paragraph, and I was "on tilt" for a few years once because of one. I'm impressed u can move on and live to tell about it. FWIW, I've wondered about the same comparison thou, early bitcoin is sort of like early internet. Who knows? I'm content to have a very modest speculation in it, but it would be epic if the comparison holds.
  • WP
    William P.
    9 October 2020 @ 21:14
    Exceptional conversation. A true service to society
  • GT
    Gene T.
    9 October 2020 @ 21:04
    Now that was a 1 hr 10 min well spent. The value of listening in on a relaxed, free-form discussion such as this one is inestimable to those of us that are not pros. Best of RV nominee, four stars:)
  • TP
    Thomas P.
    9 October 2020 @ 21:00
    Lol I don't go grocery shopping, "I have people for that". That was pretty good. Love Gundlach!
  • AK
    Andrew K.
    9 October 2020 @ 17:11
    there is no universal truth! correct.
    • HR
      Humberto R.
      9 October 2020 @ 20:23
      Then consider that must include your statement. Remember just because someone can make money in markets doesn't make him a sage in other areas of life. Something as simple as "buy low, sell high" is a universal truth if you want to make money investing.
  • CM
    Chris M.
    9 October 2020 @ 20:08
    really enjoyed this interview. really great takeaways, especially around hit rates and time horizons, and chipotle and hope to see him on here again. "that's a lot of tacos!" haha. rather antiquated views on bitcoin, but there has to be somebody buying when it hits 6 figures!
  • JH
    John H.
    9 October 2020 @ 20:06
    Spot on re WFH. Telling your boss you don't need to ever go back to the office just means you belong to the global white collar workforce. You'd better be as good as you think you are ...
  • JF
    Jean F.
    9 October 2020 @ 19:54
    This was awesome, thanks.
  • BB
    Brent B.
    9 October 2020 @ 19:16
    "The dirt has to go somewhere!:"
  • MF
    Michael F.
    9 October 2020 @ 18:46
    Another great interview!
  • JB
    Jeff B.
    9 October 2020 @ 18:28
    Jeff is a smart dude. I like how he keeps it simple. I like the 18 month time horizon, the "frequency x amplitude = a constant", the asset allocation portion. Raoul discussing macro with Jeff is as "master class" as you can get.
  • HS
    Henry S.
    9 October 2020 @ 18:18
    Excellent discussion carried by both great guest (Gundlach) and good job by host. Gundlach presents his views well with great clear, compelling rationale. His advice on how to approach those rare opportunities is bang on, that's the one time you can pretty much forget about risk management. Agree! Also like Gundlach's comments on bitcoin. ... get something you can put in the trunk of your car.
  • ST
    Satchel T.
    9 October 2020 @ 18:10
    GOAT
  • VS
    Ville S.
    9 October 2020 @ 17:37
    "I wanna talk about the pain" 😂
  • JM
    John M.
    9 October 2020 @ 17:34
    Great conversation. I liked his comments on the permanent portfolio, deflation, coming insolvency - great stuff!
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    9 October 2020 @ 15:46
    Great stuff, Very true about the Rural / Urban divide in America right now. Despite what we see on the news a lot of small towns are actually quite serene places. My parents live in one and think I’m believing “conspiracy theories” when talking about what I see in the city.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      9 October 2020 @ 17:21
      I thought that moment in the interview was among the more poignant. When he was sharing his experience, I reflected on similar experiences and responses to visits to small towns I've made in the last several years.
  • GL
    Gustav L.
    9 October 2020 @ 16:36
    "That's a lot of tacos" is now my go-to expression for describing overvalued stocks
  • SF
    Shezan F.
    9 October 2020 @ 16:32
    That was one of the best pieces I have ever seen on Real Vision.
  • JJ
    Jerry J.
    9 October 2020 @ 16:23
    ok interview - although not much new if you read anything. he's also the greatest investor of all-time, having never made a bad trade.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    9 October 2020 @ 16:14
    Funny, trying to work out of a bad trade right now. Perfect timing on this video. Once read that the greatest investors are right 58% of the time. Jeffrey mentions 53% to be right and successful. That is the challenge with this biz, managing the losses and when to claim the gains.
  • sp
    spencer p.
    9 October 2020 @ 16:14
    loved this
  • IM
    Ian M.
    9 October 2020 @ 16:07
    Amazing interview. Learned a lot from one of the greats. Thank you!
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    9 October 2020 @ 16:06
    I can't watch today but I know already that can only be good. Jeffrey was the man who made me discovered Real vision and signed up to watch his interview. He will always be the king! I wish I'll make enough money to meet him one day one day at double line! Amen.
  • SC
    Sam C.
    9 October 2020 @ 15:57
    "I've got people for that" Ha!
  • AT
    Andrew T.
    9 October 2020 @ 15:17
    Simple comment. RealVision earned my money today.
  • AB
    Annegret B.
    9 October 2020 @ 14:31
    I know a lot of people like those in Wyoming and I think they are much more relaxed than me. I don t know were to put my money, I guess I ll wait till Warren Buffet shouts " Buy America "Till than l only trade. Eventually I buy some gold, but I don t really like it. I d prefere something like a " Mondrian" but my money won t be enough. Thank you for your insight.
  • AR
    Anthony R.
    9 October 2020 @ 14:28
    Jeff is the Chuck Norris of our industry
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    9 October 2020 @ 14:01
    Alpha trade: risk mgmt, Beta trade: risk. 5 opportunities per lifetime. F*ck me, absorbing and executing on those insights alone is what separates hacks from Kung Fu masters. Brilliant.
  • RC
    RUBEN C.
    9 October 2020 @ 13:29
    Amazing interview. Jeffrey needs to come again as soon as he sees his ideas taking form! Raoul, epic failure trying to get him into Bitcoin 😆!!! It seems Jeffrey prefers to drink 🍷 while watching at his 🖼
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    9 October 2020 @ 12:31
    Gundlach's Law: Frequency * Amplitude = Constant Sounds like the power law encountered in complexity theory. See Didier Sornette https://www.amazon.com/Why-Stock-Markets-Crash-Financial/dp/0691175950
    • CD
      Christopher D.
      9 October 2020 @ 12:33
      About lo vol leading to hi vol The Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World, Less Predictable and More Dangerous https://fooledbyrandomness.com/ForeignAffairs.pdf
  • GH
    Guy H.
    9 October 2020 @ 12:24
    Great interview Raoul. Refreshing to hear from an old fashioned bond vigilante. Looking at 2020 from the lens of 2005 is such an interesting exercise. Pre-iPhone, pre-social media, pre post-fact.
  • PR
    Private R.
    9 October 2020 @ 10:23
    really brilliant coherent discussion from both sides, great stuff
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    9 October 2020 @ 10:07
    Great interview Raoul, cheers
  • DS
    David S.
    9 October 2020 @ 08:34
    Great interview period. DLS
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    9 October 2020 @ 08:18
    Great conversation! Thanks a lot Raoul & Jeffrey!
  • TE
    Tom E.
    9 October 2020 @ 07:49
    Thanks for that. Excellent insights.
  • mw
    michael w.
    9 October 2020 @ 06:58
    Quality wisdom in this one. This is what Real Vision is about. Education you won't usually find as a retail investor. With advice like this, soon I may be able to afford the pro tier! :D
  • RR
    Raj R.
    9 October 2020 @ 05:17
    Brilliant!! Finally Jeff talking about investment framework which is so helpful in educating the RV audience!!