The Turning Point Master

Published on
July 12th, 2019
Duration
54 minutes

The Turning Point Master

The Interview ·
Featuring Milton Berg and Grant Williams

Published on: July 12th, 2019 • Duration: 54 minutes

Milton Berg’s distinguished career includes stints with the titans of the hedge fund world, including George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Michael Steinhardt. In this conversation with Real Vision co-founder Grant Williams, Berg explains how he developed a framework for spotting major market tops and bottoms. He provides examples from history, speaks to some of the signals he’s looking at right now, and warns that many investors ignore turning points at their own peril. Filmed on July 10, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • JT
    Jay T.
    28 October 2019 @ 01:22
    Fantastic interview. I hope no one believes it though :-)
  • PT
    Pradeep T.
    19 September 2019 @ 19:25
    This is by far one of the best interviews I have ever come across from an expert. I have been trying to come up with a model that can predict market turns; I can clearly see what path Milton B has taken to get there.
  • CM
    Chad M.
    4 September 2019 @ 19:48
    Wow, that was great! Maybe the best! Thank you RV and Milton!
  • LV
    Laurent V.
    6 August 2019 @ 07:21
    Thanks for sharing Milton! When talking about modeling all 7%+ moves, what's the maximum timeframe for these moves?
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    31 July 2019 @ 11:45
    One of the greatest interviews I've seen. Up there with Kiril Sokoloff. Main point is that there are many other factors outside of technicals.
  • JC
    Jason C.
    31 July 2019 @ 02:23
    The Winston Wolf of Real Vision...
  • CG
    Christopher G.
    27 July 2019 @ 18:00
    What’s the inflation adjusted value of 118 year old Dollar? I’d say if you invested $1 in 1900 the rate of inflation would have killed all your 648% gain.
    • MB
      Milton B.
      29 July 2019 @ 20:01
      $1 in 1900 would grow to $29.51 in 118 years. So Dow did outperform the rate of inflation. Note this excludes dividends. MB
    • MB
      Milton B.
      29 July 2019 @ 21:04
      BTW the gain is 64,700% in the Dow not 648%
  • MB
    Michael B.
    21 July 2019 @ 09:00
    Dumb money index screams "sell now!" https://www.ccn.com/news/stock-market-dumb-money-index-screams-sell-now/2019/07/19/?amp
  • SS
    Simeon S.
    20 July 2019 @ 19:47
    Selling dreams always will work.
  • JG
    Jose G.
    20 July 2019 @ 15:45
    All the respect to Milton and his process but you are all too gullable , no one can do it always. For example: Next Move in Stocks Will Be Considerably Higher, Milton Berg Says Bloomberg Markets: The Close November 26th, 2018, 8:43 PM GMT+0100 Milton Berg, chief executive officer of Milton Berg Advisors, discusses his bullish call on U.S. equities with Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Caroline Hyde on "Bloomberg Markets: The Close." (Source: Bloomberg) Market went down one more month...
    • MP
      MICHAEL P.
      20 July 2019 @ 18:26
      All the respect to you but No Way Jose! Please! Milton did not claim that anyone can do it always. On the contrary! Here is an excerpt from the transcript when Milton discusses catching all the tops and bottoms of the market. at 20:08 "Now I'm not arguing that anyone can do that. But I'm arguing since you can see how compounding market, bull market and bear markets, makes you so much money, why not attempt to do it?" Milton clearly has developed a clear system that helps him recognize tops and bottoms. Here is a quote from 22:50 "And I have to admit that we can't catch every 7% move. We can't even catch every 15% move. But if you only catch every other bear market, you'll still way, way, way, way outperform the typical hedge fund and the typical investor." I really advise you watch the interview again. Milton is definitely gifted and this is one of the best interviews I Have ever seen on RV.
    • JG
      Jose G.
      21 July 2019 @ 11:20
      Michael P. You didn't say anything i didnt already know. I just advices less experienced retail investors that fairy tails dont exist. Milton should be a multi billionaire if he gets most of the tops and downs in the last 40 years. I respect him a lot, but im just warning to put a grain of salt on the comments here.
    • MP
      MICHAEL P.
      23 July 2019 @ 10:20
      Jose my friend. I think Miltons track record speaks for itself. If you still are skeptical and believe his method is fairytale... maybe the fact that his portfolio is up almost 30% YTD is the reason the comments here seem so biased. I think before you call us all gullible you should do some research into Miltons track record. (I think all his trades since 2014 are readily available) In any event wondering if Milton is a multi billionaire wont do you any good.
  • BD
    Brian D.
    19 July 2019 @ 11:08
    Super interview, a great perspective on markets and how to trade.
  • VH
    Victor H.
    19 July 2019 @ 05:35
    Learnt a new word -- Quintilian. Thank you!
    • JH
      Jess H.
      7 October 2019 @ 08:25
      (American) quintillion: 1 followed by 18 zeros. (British) quintillion: 1 followed by 30 zeros.
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    18 July 2019 @ 22:06
    Milton I’ve made a living for over 50 years doing exactly what your doing.... i also worked for Soros successfully. The one factor I would add to your list is the “integration” of fundamentals to the technicals as an another indicator. One of the best interviews from Real Vision in terms of making money. 5*’s thank you.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    18 July 2019 @ 16:08
    Brilliant interview.
  • GO
    Glenn O.
    18 July 2019 @ 03:08
    Fascinating. He is absolutely correct about a good number of successful investors have a different perspective, because they think differently, because they are different. I have seen it first hand. Well done Real Vision. Glenn
  • RW
    Ralph W.
    17 July 2019 @ 06:41
    I'm glad I'm not the only one using 30,000 indicators.
  • JA
    James A.
    17 July 2019 @ 04:08
    whoever knew Grant was a closet Technician!
  • ER
    Eli R.
    16 July 2019 @ 16:37
    I had the privilege of working as an analyst for Milton for four years. I can attest that his process is disciplined and data driven, and that his insights are sought after by some of the top names on the street. His proclivity for out-of-the-box thinking distinguishes the research, in my opinion.
    • mw
      mathias w.
      18 July 2019 @ 14:28
      cool. what is his typical time horizons for his calls?
  • mw
    mathias w.
    16 July 2019 @ 13:55
    Great interview. Milton, what is your typical time frame for calling tops and bottoms? The process seem very nimble switching from long to short etc. Also it would have been helpful in the interview to understand more what he had learned from the greats of Soros and Druckenmiller cheers
    • MB
      Milton B.
      29 July 2019 @ 20:35
      Since January 1 2014, we have averaged one exposure change per month from either long to short or short to long or to flat. Our annualized returns through June 30 2019 has been +15.70% per year.
  • TH
    Truman H.
    15 July 2019 @ 20:22
    It clears the mind to realize once again that those of us who trade our own accounts are competing with folks like Milton Berg. I so admire his humility in the face of his many achievements.
  • YB
    Yair B.
    15 July 2019 @ 16:50
    Fascinating! Would love to hear how your Talmudic background helps you analyze the market, if at all.
    • MB
      Milton B.
      29 July 2019 @ 20:37
      Talmud Study helps develop the analytical mind.
  • PA
    Peter A.
    15 July 2019 @ 12:52
    VERY powerful approach! The fundamental fact mentioned as the tripwire that could snap up and make a mess out of the long side? Debt. That stated the weight of this factor and all other factors he observes as impacting the market direction is where I would think Mr. Berg's system likely shines. His work in available to institutional clientele - Has he ever thought about establishing a retail offering? Perhaps a closed-end fund?
  • KD
    Kaj D.
    15 July 2019 @ 08:19
    Thank you Milton & Grant. Got heaps out of this!
  • TH
    Timo H.
    15 July 2019 @ 05:05
    Mainstream: "Market timing can't be done" Milton: "Hold my beer!" Brilliant!
  • fT
    forecast T.
    14 July 2019 @ 23:39
    We feel lighter and happier on full moon days or days the moons closest to earth. Gravity literally pulls or pushes water. Water is two sets of very light atoms - hydrogen is lighter than helium and oxygen is heavier than both.
  • fT
    forecast T.
    14 July 2019 @ 23:33
    Study the macd , rsi , standard deviation , bollinger uppers , money flow and study those down to the average weighting methods - even deeper , candle patterns approaching the middle bollonger. It is possible you can call swings very early. Earned very good returns in terms of % , working on turning these dollars but it doesn’t take time . It’s possible , and can be machine learned .
  • JE
    John E.
    14 July 2019 @ 23:07
    This is legend! Another homerun for Grant and Realvision.
  • PP
    Peter P.
    14 July 2019 @ 11:46
    Thank you Milton Berg for sharing your wisdom & Grant/RV for the interview. One of the best hours of the past year on RV. Loved Mr. Berg’s passion after so many years, and that he remains always on edge/vigilant. 175% long or 175% short will focus the mind.
  • MC
    Mario C.
    14 July 2019 @ 10:23
    https://www.morningstar.com/news/market-watch/TDJNMW_20190713198/update-investor-who-nailed-the-1987-crash-ditches-stocks-and-bonds-and-heres-why.html
  • vm
    vaz m.
    14 July 2019 @ 10:22
    This interview was mind blowing!!!! Thank you realvision!!!
  • JV
    Joao V.
    14 July 2019 @ 05:52
    This guy called the bottom Nov 26, 2018 as well. Broken clock will be right twice per day.
    • MB
      Milton B.
      29 July 2019 @ 20:38
      To the contrary we are not a broken clock and average 12 position shifts (long to short to long) per year.
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    14 July 2019 @ 04:41
    Super awesome! However, is he short the stocks since July 2? All his data he presented made me think he is long but then he said he is short. Can someone please clarify? Thanks
    • EF
      Eric F.
      14 July 2019 @ 13:43
      Yeah, super awesome, but you have no idea on where he actually stands as of now. How can that be ‘awesome’? Sheep.
    • MB
      Michael B.
      14 July 2019 @ 15:32
      He was long since December, now he turned short. You can't make assumptions with this guy, just need to follow him.
    • MB
      Milton B.
      15 July 2019 @ 00:30
      Macro Positioning. June 28. We were positioned +180.95% long SPY and +13.78% long IWM July 1. Positioned FLAT July 2. Short -51.29% SPY. -50.32% Short QQQ. July 3. Short -51.12% SPY. Short -51.13% QQQ. Short -75.69% TLT. Current positioning Proprietary. Macro Returns. Week ending 6-21 +3.65%. 6-28 -0.49%. 7-5 +1.41%. 7-12 +0.21% YTD + 28.42% Thank for your interest and inquiry. Milton
    • FC
      Fractal C.
      15 July 2019 @ 01:58
      Thank you, Milton. Appreciate your response.
    • MB
      Milton B.
      29 July 2019 @ 20:42
      The data based analytic were bullish all year. The cycles work of Montgomery turned bearish on July 2 and 15. As soon as the cycle top high was violated we reverted long on July 24. We remain short the long bond as it has retained its July 3 top print. MB
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    14 July 2019 @ 04:34
    Is there perhaps a retail investor version of Milton’s research?;)
  • SM
    Sarit M.
    14 July 2019 @ 04:19
    Awesome interview - absolutely loved it. In case any one's interested, here's the link to the "Boundaries of Technical Analysis" paper that Milton referred to - https://www.academia.edu/18668085/Boundaries_of_Technical_Analysis
    • AO
      Alex O.
      14 July 2019 @ 06:49
      Thank you
  • DS
    Dean S.
    14 July 2019 @ 02:08
    What a humble man and a great process. One of the finest interviews yet Grant.
  • PK
    P K.
    14 July 2019 @ 00:50
    Excellent interview and insights. The explanation of data driven representation of psychology by Mr. Berg was superb.
  • MB
    Michael B.
    13 July 2019 @ 22:54
    This interview from legendary analyst Milton Berg is the best I’ve ever seen in all my years of market research. Milton is definitely the one to follow. Those with him are the ones making the real money today.
  • CZ
    Cyprian Z.
    13 July 2019 @ 22:53
    Hands down top 5 RV interviews of all time. Does anyone know what his track record is?
  • pw
    pontus w.
    13 July 2019 @ 21:36
    Many many thanks, epitomizing why I pay for this. Gutsy and good!!
  • AV
    Adam V.
    13 July 2019 @ 20:17
    a great interview and appreciate the data driven nature of the analysis. Interestingly, even when his computer model generates a buy signal based in rare signals, he still makes a human based decision to act on the signal, so he is technically following a discretionary model.
  • MP
    MICHAEL P.
    13 July 2019 @ 18:57
    Milton is one of the brightest investors I have ever seen. Clearly the best of the best. Hope to see him on Real Vision all the time.
  • SW
    Szymon W.
    13 July 2019 @ 17:33
    One of the best interviews on Real Vision! Thank you!!!
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    13 July 2019 @ 17:27
    God I love these old school dudes!!
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    13 July 2019 @ 16:49
    I've done some analysis on lunar effects and surprisingly there is a weak relationship. I expect it is less about gravity on our body but instead how well we sleep (or not) with full moons. Greatest impact seems to be on volatility markets. May also be some cause from Asian calendars. Great interview.
  • DS
    David S.
    13 July 2019 @ 16:07
    Agreed. Great insights. Since market purchases are about 60% ETFs and 20% algos, there is a lot less purchasing on price discovery. Instead it is on the psychology behind money flows. As baby boomers are trying to top off their retirement accounts and corporations are buying back their stock, markets are climbing despite corporate profit warnings. As discussed in many RVTV interviews, this will reverse someday. When that happens, I will bet Mr. Berg will be in cash and ready to buy low. I hope we can join him as cash will not have the problem of counterparty risk. DLS
  • AD
    Anthony D.
    13 July 2019 @ 13:46
    You only need to broadcast a few interviews like this one a year to justify your full annual fee! Data driven decisions guided by the insight/intuition of broad experience... how else could one go short on July 2nd. I'll never say never.. but it will be a long time coming for the algo's to program a black box to do what he does. Thank you RV.
  • JR
    J R.
    13 July 2019 @ 13:40
    Milton, is your research available/affordable for retail investors? Anyone has any idea of how much the services costs?
  • EF
    Eric F.
    13 July 2019 @ 13:22
    I thought there would be a little more skepticism here. There were certainly some interesting insights but I do think the initial example of a dollar invested across every boom / bust being worth trillions is just ridiculous, and somewhat undermines the argument for. I also thought Milton hedged his bets by making the case for both an upturn or downturn from here. Only a sideways market leaves him wrong. I’m not won over and am highly sceptical. You could lose the shirt off your back attempting this and I’m a little disappointed Grant didn’t push back a little more. I only listened to the audio but do not feel this is something he buys into personally.
    • AO
      Alex O.
      13 July 2019 @ 14:25
      his fund is up 26 and 28% up respectively this yr. Equally i doubt the likes of Soros et al would have tolerated him if they didn't see value. Just a thought, not an argument.
    • RM
      Ryan M.
      13 July 2019 @ 17:21
      He didn't say that it's possible to get every turn right. He said that people should at least try because the potential reward is massive. And perhaps just a handful of people in the world will make something out of the attempt.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      14 July 2019 @ 13:53
      The potential loss is also catastrophic too Ryan. It’s a super risky way to trade and my concern is that even if Milton is doing it (and doing it well), this should absolutely not be recommended to the average investor. It’s a potential suicide mission. I’m more than happy to accept Milton is an expert in this field and is indeed killing it, but I just thought that was a very poor example to begin with - compound returns of catching every turn - I mean, could anything be more impossible to do? If you need that sort of example to make your case you’ve personally lost me right away. I think also the absolute lack of clarity on where he currently stands is either a red flag or a lost opportunity. Most people would agree the market is sitting at extremes now, so to not have a ‘turning master’ make a bit of a bold proclamation was disappointing to say that least. There’s little I would take away from this in terms of process, as at the very least you’d need to replicate Milton’s model, which seems to have thousands of inputs etc. The only thing more disappointing than the interview itself is the quality of comments here. They are fawning and sheepish. Comments of ‘Best ever - but is he long or short?’ say it all.
  • AO
    Alex O.
    13 July 2019 @ 10:05
    One of, if not the best interview I have seen on here! So many nuggets to go and backtest. Superb work!!
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    13 July 2019 @ 07:05
    Truly extraordinary! I loved it!
  • KG
    Kumeran G.
    13 July 2019 @ 05:56
    Brilliant interview and framework. Try get Chris Carolan in to run through moon cycles....
  • YU
    Yoni U.
    13 July 2019 @ 05:26
    This is why I pay for Real Vision.
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    13 July 2019 @ 05:23
    WOW! Just loved this interview! Milton is fascinating and delivers a lot of meat. And as always Grant’s easy fluid style just draws out the best content. Grant is the BEST listener; he coaxes, milks, draws & elicits technicolor 3-dimensional nuggets from his guests. A suggestion and a question... SUGGESTION: if the guest has taken over 60 orbits around the sun, can the set-staff please provide COMFORTABLE CHAIRS for those guests? Like a lazy-boy armchair? Milton starts squirming 5 minutes in. I work in cancer care and can spot physical discomfort by the amount a person shifts their weight. He keeps on shifting throughout the interview. Pain reduces mental acuity and focus, and is exhausting. If guests aren’t tired out, they’ll have a better chance of returning as they’ll subconsciously remember their interview as being enjoyably pain-free. And how about a side-table behind the chairs for their materials? Turn off the sound and the fellow looked like a newbie on a job interview at times. He looked uncomfortable. Maybe this is why some of the greats put off attending; they don’t want to sit for an hour.. because it just plain hurts. QUESTIONS: Milton says “short bonds”. Raoul says “buy bonds”. What am I missing? Are they both coming at the same problem from different angles respective to their positions? Or do they mean different bond instruments? Is it normal to have two top leaders in the industry quanting polar opinions? Anyone? Thanks! Hannah
    • DR
      David R.
      13 July 2019 @ 06:57
      Hannah, "Is it normal to have two top leaders in the industry quanting polar opinions?". Based on what I see I'd say, "Is it normal not too?". That's what makes a market. See you in the machine.
    • Hv
      Hannah v.
      13 July 2019 @ 16:39
      Thanks David, that’s a really great point. I’ll call up the treasury on Monday from the wilds of Canada.
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    13 July 2019 @ 05:05
    Gotta love a person who asks 'why not?'; and then gives the near impossible a red-hot go.
  • MK
    Mike K.
    13 July 2019 @ 03:21
    Best interview yet on RV!
  • DH
    Dean H.
    13 July 2019 @ 03:17
    I will watch this again and again
  • GR
    Garey R.
    13 July 2019 @ 02:46
    Quite an intriguing interview providing a glimpse into the mind of a very talented individual with some unique insights! Also....Milton and Robert De Niro could be doppelgangers for one another! I know when they make a movie of Milton's role in finance...De Niro will be the guy...
    • LH
      Louis-Philippe H.
      14 July 2019 @ 00:45
      haha was thinking the same thing
  • AJ
    Andy J.
    13 July 2019 @ 01:47
    I love love love that we got straight into it. Wonderful as ever, Grant.
  • JM
    Jamie M.
    13 July 2019 @ 00:49
    What a fantastic interview, thank you. As someone who is a tiny retail investor also trying to educate himself on the markets, it was fascinating to hear Milton talk. I’m sure that replicating Milton’s strategy in a personal (and very small) account is a challenge, but I feel a responsibility to try. Time to lock myself away in a room to figure some things out! Thanks again, informative, enlightening and above all very enjoyable to watch.
  • CM
    C M.
    13 July 2019 @ 00:25
    Nice interview. Really gets going at the 12 minute remaining mark. If you are short on time, at least watch the last 12 minutes for Milton's insights on today's market.
  • dw
    douglas w.
    12 July 2019 @ 23:38
    This interview was amazing!
  • RM
    Russell M.
    12 July 2019 @ 23:05
    I want to say something to those rookies that want to learn, and to those mockers who think this guy doesn’t know what he is talking about. I’m not famous; I work alone; and I don’t have the computer power he’s got. But I do sort of basically what he does with off the shelf common indicators. I’m sure he does it better than I do. My point is it can be done. I was in cash before the late last year sell off and went 50% long a day early - the day before christmas eve, and the rest long on christmas eve, to the exact day. How did I do it? I will tell you how. I sell the right top by selling 12 of the right 2 tops a year. And I keep my losses small. That’s it. That’s all there is. When you are in cash with the market down big in unusual volume like around christmas, you can have the balls to step in even if you end up being a week early. That’s it. I watch regular big name stocks and have experience with seeing something unfamiliar with what I watch regularly. I’m just using regular hard price short term momentum indicators like stochastic, and macd histogram, watching the short term momentum and watching for unusual volume and change of cadence in rsi. I make my money at turns. I under perform in the stretch. If you think this guy has nothing to teach, he is pearls before swine. Just saying open your mind to start watching what turns look like. Getting some of it right some of the time can pay if you don’t over stretch. And over time, if you don’t bust, you learn to do it better. But if you don’t try, you can’t learn this, and you are wasting time.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      12 July 2019 @ 23:48
      Good post
    • JM
      Jamie M.
      13 July 2019 @ 00:52
      Russell, Firstly congratulations on your success, it is pretty inspiring. I’m trying to get a handle on the things you mention, would you care to shed some light perhaps on what to focus on for those looking to break some ground in understanding how to put this kind of strategy into practice? Appreciate any advice you might be able to share. Regards.
    • RM
      Russell M.
      16 July 2019 @ 02:05
      Jamie M., Its hard to show without charts. Perhaps someday they will turn the cameras around for rookie tv. I’ll call my segment, “Completely Unprofessional”. I’ll try. Imagine about 5 - 7 charts of stocks you would like to buy that you think will be bought by bigger players after a sell off in S&P has run its course. Perhaps aapl, amzn, ma, pgr, pypl. That’s my kind of stocks. Imagine each of them as a chart with everything covered except stochastic. Then everything covered but macd histogram. Then everything covered but price candles - like 6 to 9 months where each candle is 1 day. Then volume only - color volume showing either climatic volume or selling volume diminishing. Thats 5 stocks times 4 panes equals 20 calls of whether to buy a certain day or plus or minus 1 day. Every stock won’t have an rsi divergence, but one might. Every stock won’t show a volume clue, but 1 might. All will show a stochastic turn and turn in macd histograme if a turn happens. They are not predictive. They help you decide which day to pull the trigger. Sometimes you see a turn forming and you pull early. Sometimes you wait for confirmation. Multiple looks helps decide. Vix index with macd histogram only is useful at market events. The shooting star candlestick pattern shows up on vix and macd histogram with clarity often. I chart on stockcharts.com with a basic lite subscribtion for about $150 / yr. You can make a good chart template and read indicator explanations on the free level.
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    12 July 2019 @ 22:32
    Fantastic. Put a camera crew together and have them live stream Milton through the day. Bringing him back for another interview is not enough.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    12 July 2019 @ 22:04
    Sorry but couldn’t get into this one at all. Grant is fantastic as usual, but steamrolled a bit by this guy who doesn’t stop talking and frankly sounds a bit like a broken record. I’m afraid I couldn’t last more than about 1/2 way through the interview. Disappointing. Well done Grant and RV. Not all interviews can be excellent and up to your v. high standard. Cheers.
    • TJ
      Terry J.
      14 July 2019 @ 12:14
      That's a shame Jesse as like most other RV viewers I found Milton's insights fascinating and couldn't get enough of him. Can I suggest you try reading the transcript instead as I am convinced there are insights in the interview that every one of us can benefit from. I shall not only watch this again in case I missed, or rather because I will have missed some valuable comments, but also print off the transcript for reading a few times. Agree Grant was brilliant as always. Terry
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    12 July 2019 @ 21:25
    Can't tell if cuckoo or brilliant
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      13 July 2019 @ 11:32
      Brilliant.
    • MP
      MICHAEL P.
      13 July 2019 @ 19:21
      Brilliant no doubt!!
    • PP
      Peter P.
      14 July 2019 @ 11:23
      And your question/comment is exactly why the interview is worth watching, and one of the best RV has posted !
  • DR
    David R.
    12 July 2019 @ 20:54
    In general, it seems that the technicians and quant masters are increasingly outperforming the fundies guys. Though it's good to have the complete package.
  • JK
    John K.
    12 July 2019 @ 20:31
    I mean this as a complete complement (not a political or personal character association), but I could not help but thinking that I was the recipient of Robert De Niro providing me personal investment advice during the interview. The voice, look, and mannerism alignment between Mr. Berg and De Niro is uncanny, but in a good way. Leave it to Grant, Raoul, and Team to figure out how to take financial education to a whole new entertain/engagement level! :-) Keep up the good work, and please have Mr. Berg back, Grant. Thank you.
  • PM
    Paul M.
    12 July 2019 @ 19:49
    Milton is really Robert De Niro! I would have like to hear Milton's thoughts on Elliot Wave.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      12 July 2019 @ 23:46
      I've found EW hard to work with on a consistent basis. So many different potential counts. And when they're wrong, as if often the case, EW people just re-name the counts. Milton made a one-second reference to Gann. That is incredibly difficult to practice as well. However, when it works, it's amazing. Jeff Cooper, on Twitter, has been trading for himself for 35 years. One of the most knowledgeable on Gann. Also Connie Brown.
  • MR
    Mark R.
    12 July 2019 @ 19:48
    Wow...5 stars for Milton Berg. I hate to say this but he stole about half of what I was going to say in my next RV interview on the market in a couple of weeks. RTM Capital is happy to sponsor him to come back as I've never heard of him but can say that is one of the best videos I've seen on market timing EVER!! The confluence of evidence is to stay long for now. well said Mark Ritchie II
  • fc
    flavio c.
    12 July 2019 @ 18:46
    Ok, Im sold, how can I invest with him?
  • KL
    Kim L.
    12 July 2019 @ 18:28
    Great interview! Thank you for highlighting how Graham's approach to investing changed at the end of his career and how pyschology affects the markets. Think this is the best interview so far showing how psychology can affect markets.
  • BF
    Bruce F.
    12 July 2019 @ 18:25
    Totally fascinating. I will show my age by saying he reminded me of Georgie Jessel with his speaking.
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      12 July 2019 @ 21:55
      Yeah, and Buddy Hackett a bit as well.
    • CM
      C M.
      13 July 2019 @ 00:26
      I can see the Buddy Hackett reference!
  • CB
    Christopher B.
    12 July 2019 @ 18:20
    Movement creates profits and losses. Supply & Demand create movement. Interpreting supply and demand properly is the key to the kingdom. Bravo Milton! and thank you Grant for a wonderful interview!!
  • JS
    John S.
    12 July 2019 @ 18:11
    Great interview. Really appreciate the Mr. Berg's work and willingness to share his process. Great stuff. Wondering what determines a "top" for getting stopped out on the July 2 short. It appears we are already at new highs. Does that mean he has been stopped out?
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    12 July 2019 @ 17:10
    I always like listening to Milton. Love the shorter term focus, and appears a good way to trade the current environment so that you do not need to try to rationalize the current monetary madness.
  • MI
    Madhu I.
    12 July 2019 @ 17:10
    Does Milton have a Twitter feed?
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      12 July 2019 @ 21:57
      Better question: Does Milton know what Twitter is?
    • MB
      Mark B.
      13 July 2019 @ 00:54
      Twitter volume is probably one of his 30,000 indicators. ;)
  • OC
    Otto C.
    12 July 2019 @ 17:05
    Real Vision's interviews are awesome and this one in particular, in my opinion, is one of the best because it actually gives specific tools and strategy that we can apply. Keep up the great work!!!
  • MI
    Madhu I.
    12 July 2019 @ 17:00
    This is a great interview. Please bring him often.
  • JG
    Justin G.
    12 July 2019 @ 16:15
    I am so glad Milton is on RV............I came across him in 2014 and was blown away since by his high quality yet simple analysis which has helped me in my career when I started back in 2014......I check all the time for him on Bloomberg..........He's an excellent trader and good at calling turning points..............Thank you Milton for sharing your knowledge over the years!!!...........The crazy part about it is that he has maybe roughly an hour or so footage between bloomberg and a recent CNBC appearance & from all of them put together I've learnt more that reading many other sources..........this guy is the real deal
  • TR
    Tobias R.
    12 July 2019 @ 16:12
    Good guest but the interviewing was not rigorous enough, Someone like Mike Green would have extracted a lot more from Milton about the methodology.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      13 July 2019 @ 09:02
      I agree. Grant said, "I'm fascinated..." too many times, which to me translates as: "I'm starry eyed."
  • MA
    Muhammad A.
    12 July 2019 @ 16:08
    Amazing discussion. Building the discipline to actually act on these signals only at the turning points and not over trading is very difficult and I think most people end up losing by going for the false positives at the turning points.
    • MA
      Muhammad A.
      12 July 2019 @ 16:11
      Also, I would be interested to know the track record in terms of annualized returns that Mr. Berg has realized using these signals, I am sure more ppl will buy into this once they see that it works and there is a consistent return stream to show for it.
    • JM
      Jennifer M.
      12 July 2019 @ 19:18
      You can contact Milton through miltonberg.com if you would like to discuss his track record in more detail. Someone from his team will get back to you promptly.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    12 July 2019 @ 15:42
    Great to have Grant back on RV! This is the kind of mind blowing discussion, that changes the false perceptions drilled into my brain over the last 30 years, regarding supposed market facts. I'm only halfway through this presentation and its put a huge smile on my face! Brilliant honest analysis the confirms our instincts and psychology are critical to success. Having the courage to sell when the market is rising and buy when fallen. Smart Trading does matter. What does it take to get subscription to Mr. Berg's work??? Is there a blog, newsletter, or the like available? Top Notch!
    • JM
      Jennifer M.
      12 July 2019 @ 19:19
      Please contact Milton through his website www.miltonberg.com. Someone from his team will get back to you promptly.
    • SS
      Sam S.
      12 July 2019 @ 20:24
      Thank You Jennifer!
  • PV
    Paul V.
    12 July 2019 @ 15:38
    Grant. This was an excellent interview. The context of what Milton is putting out there is so important and very timely. I'll need to listen to this again (and perhaps again) over the next week. Thanks, Paul
  • AB
    Avik B.
    12 July 2019 @ 14:38
    Eclipses?!
    • MB
      Milton B.
      12 July 2019 @ 14:42
      Here are some Montgomery Cycle events since 2018. "2018 & 2019 Montgomery Cycle Dates" Date Significance Markets That Cycled Performance January 2, 2018 Minor No Markets Cycled NA January 17, 2018 Minor Transports Peaked (1/16) Transports Declined -14.16% Into February Low January 31, 2018 Major "S&P 500, DJIA, NYSE Gapped Down (1/30), Hang Seng All-Time High Peaked (1/29)" "SPX Declined -10.75%, DJIA Declined -11.03% and has not filled the gap, NYSE Declined -10.48% and has not filled the gap, Hang Seng Index Declined -26.71% and has not recovered" February 15, 2018 Major No Markets Cycled NA March 2, 2018 Minor US Equity Markets Tradeble Low (3/2) Minor Gains in US Equity Markets March 17, 2018 Minor No Markets Cycled NA June 13, 2018 Minor "SPX Tradable High (6/13), Transports Recovery High (6/12) Utilities (4-Month Low) (6/11/2018)," "SPX Declined -3.56% Into The June 28th Cycle Date, Transports Declined -8.41% Into The June 28th Cycle Date, Utilities Gained +15.70%" June 28, 2018 Minor "Bitcoin gained +46.44% Into The July 25th Cycle Date, Transports Gained +14.05% Into September High, MSCI Emerging Markets Gained +5.55% Into July 26 Cycle Date, Thailand gained +11.48% into September 21 WD Gann Day of Infamy, Poland gained +14.25% Into August 28 Cycle Date, Malaysia gained +10.20% into August 28 Cycle Date, Deutsche Bank gained +25.82%, Oil Declined -12.33%" July 13, 2018 Major "Soybean Declined -54.04% Off 9/2012 High And Generated 10-Year Low Corn Futures Declined -19.16% and Generated 1-year Low" "Soybean futures gained +12.13%, Corn futures gained +14.53%" July 27, 2018 Major Bitcoin Gained +46.44% Off The June 28 Cycle Date, Peaked On 7/25 And Then Turned Down Bitcoin Declined -58.46% August 11, 2018 Major No Markets Cycled NA August 26, 2018 Minor "Mid-Cap Gapped Up To New All-Time Highs, Small-Cap Generated All-Time High, Poland Gained +14.25% Off June 28th Cycle and Generated Recovery High, Malaysia Gained +10.20% Off June 28th Cycle and Generated Recovery High" "Mid-Cap Declined -13.82% Small-Cap Declined -16.84%, Poland Declined -13.06%, Malaysia Declined -8.57%" September 9, 2018 Minor "Gold & Silver Miners Generated 2.5-Year Low, Silver Spot Generated 2.5-Year Low, Platinum Trading Near 15-Year Low," "GDX Gained +18.69% Silver Gained +6.98% Platinum Gained +13.57%" September 21, 2018 WD Gann S&P 500 Generated All Time High S&P 500 Declined -20.21% December 7, 2018 Minor No Markets Cycled NA December 22, 2018 Minor "S&P 500 Declined -20.21% Off Its Sept. 21 Day of Infamy High Oil Declined -44.92% to a 1.5-Year Low" "S&P 500 Gained +25.89% Oil Gained +57.22%" January 6, 2019 Major No Markets Cycled NA January 20, 2019 Major No Markets Cycled NA February 4, 2019 Minor No Markets Cycled NA February 19, 2019 Minor "Gold Generated 10-Month High Transports Generated 2.5-Month High" "Gold Declined -5.97% Transports Declined -6.52%" June 3, 2019 Minor "S&P 500 Gained +9.79% Lumber Gained +35.85%" June 17, 2019 Minor "Lumber Generated 4-Month High Corn Generated 5-Year High" "Lumber Declined +7.59% Corn Declined -9.40%" July 2, 2019 Major "S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ, SMI (Switzerland) Generated All Time Highs TLT Generated 2.5-Year High US 10-Year Treasury Yield Generated 2.5-Year Low"
    • SS
      Steve S.
      12 July 2019 @ 23:21
      Absolutely. Go read about W.D. Gann.
  • SG
    Sven G.
    12 July 2019 @ 13:36
    what a DUDE!! I hope he comes back once per week!
  • JF
    Jarrod F.
    12 July 2019 @ 13:24
    "The speculator’s primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor’s primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices." Ben Graham, The Intelligent Investor
    • MB
      Milton B.
      12 July 2019 @ 14:44
      Correct. here are some quotes of Benjamin Graham. Quotes from Benjamin Graham “. . .the market is not a weighing machine, on which the value of each issue is recorded by an exact and impersonal mechanism . . . Rather should we say that the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion.” Graham and Dodd, Security Analysis, (4th Edition, 1962) (Page 42) Paraphrased Question of Senator J. William Fulbright: Why do undervalued companies return to fair value? Benjamin Graham: “That is one of the mysteries of our business, and it is a mystery to me as well as to everybody else. We know from experience that eventually the market catches up with value.” 84th Congress 1st Session March 11, 1955 “My investigations have convinced me you can predetermine these logical “buy” and “sell” levels for a widely diversified portfolio without getting involved in weighing the fundamental factors affecting the prospects of specific companies or industries.” “They called it the “Bible of Graham and Dodd.” Yes, well now I have lost most of the interest I had in the details of security analysis which I devoted myself to so strenuously for many years. I feel that they are relatively unimportant, which, in a sense, has put me opposed to developments in the whole profession. I think we can do it successfully with a few techniques and simple principles. The main point is to have the right general principles and the character to stick to them.” Two quotes from Benjamin Graham cited in Janet Lowe, The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham, (1999, Wiley)
    • JF
      Jarrod F.
      13 July 2019 @ 00:52
      "Market forecasting, of course, is essentially the same as market “timing.” On that subject let me say that the only principle of timing that has ever worked well consistently is to buy common stocks at such times as they are cheap by analysis, and to sell them at such times as they are dear, or at least no longer cheap, by analysis. That sounds like timing; but when you consider it you will see that it is not really timing at all but rather the purchase and sale of securities by the method of valuation. Essentially, it requires no opinion as to the future of the market; because if you buy securities cheap enough, your position is sound, even if the market should continue to go down. And if you sell the securities at a fairly high price you have done the smart thing, even if the market should continue to go up. Therefore, at the conclusion of this course, I hope you will permit me to make as strong a plea as I can to you security analysts to divorce yourselves from stock market analysis. Don’t try to combine the two -- security analysis and market analysis -- plausible as this effort appears to many of us; because the end-product of that combination is almost certain to be contradiction and confusion." Ben Graham, lecture 10 of his series at the New York Institute of Finance, September 1946 to February 1947
  • GW
    GERALD W.
    12 July 2019 @ 13:05
    Outstanding interview.
  • OT
    Omar T.
    12 July 2019 @ 12:34
    Can you post the documents he is holding in his hand :) maybe add a sample to think tank?
    • JM
      Jennifer M.
      12 July 2019 @ 19:37
      One of the items was this http://miltonberg.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MTA-Journal-Boundaries-of-Tech-Analysis.pdf. If you would like more information, or like to get in contact with him, you can visit his website www.miltonberg.com. Someone from his team will get back to you promptly.
  • HH
    HODL H.
    12 July 2019 @ 12:30
    Is there a place we can find his research?
    • JM
      Jennifer M.
      12 July 2019 @ 19:35
      You can contact Milton through his website www.miltonberg.com. Someone from his team will get back to you promptly.
  • DW
    David W.
    12 July 2019 @ 12:01
    Great interview!
  • MC
    Matt C.
    12 July 2019 @ 11:55
    More please!
  • DL
    David L.
    12 July 2019 @ 11:42
    Admittedly some of it sounds a little weird, but if the track record and the data support the actions it would seem prudent to take the ideas seriously. Fascinating interview, thanks.
  • MS
    Marius S.
    12 July 2019 @ 11:30
    Brilliant interview!
  • sm
    sam m.
    12 July 2019 @ 10:47
    IMO this interview absolutely sucked and I want my time back. If you haven't watched I wouldn't. He might kill it but it is hard to extract anything when you are polishing a turd. ~!22:45 to go] "We spent 30 years creating this model" [look out for the body language Grant] "we have a yuuuuugge computer database and our computer combines the model. We combine it based on rarity." He goes on to say if 6 rare things happen they check if those 6 rare things have happend and affect the market ... Ok... I was sick in my mouth at this point and turned off RV to watch Gold Hunters on Pay TV.
    • CJ
      Charles J.
      12 July 2019 @ 15:48
      There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy. I get where you're coming from, but the more time I spend in the market, the more I realize how many ways there are to skin a cat. It's fine if his particular brand doesn't appeal to your sensibility, but I think you're wrong to dismiss it out of hand. Nobody's asking you to adopt his methods, but I do think it's important to be open minded particularly when a person has a strong track record of results.
  • JW
    Joseph W.
    12 July 2019 @ 09:15
    Ah major turns. Google Trends/The Economist Cover, Weekly MACD, Buying/Selling Climaxes (Spreads and volume), pin bars, good reward risk, and casuals messaging you to chase the trend. One time i even caught myself asserting -- in casual conversation - that a trend was for sure going to continue. That literally pinned the top to within two days! Try looking up Oil Plunge, Bear Market, and Euro Parity on Google Trends (increase sample size to 2004-Present). There are your major turns :)
    • tr
      tom r.
      13 July 2019 @ 02:16
      Truly excellent! Thankyou