Using History to Answer the Biggest Questions

Published on
July 26th, 2019
Duration
56 minutes

Using History to Answer the Biggest Questions

The Interview ·
Featuring Kiril Sokoloff and Raoul Pal

Published on: July 26th, 2019 • Duration: 56 minutes

Investment visionary Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy & Research, draws on his deep knowledge of history and on the interplay between different market forces in order to forecast what’s ahead — and to suggest how savvy investors ought to position themselves today. In this deep-diving conversation with Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal, Sokoloff helps answer the most pressing questions around markets and the economy. He also provides a read on how other significant minds are making sense of the increasingly powerful forces that are shaking our financial world. Filmed on July 10, 2019 in upstate New York. To learn more about 13D Publications, visit http://www.13D.com/trial Note: When this interview was filmed, gold was trading at about $1,400 per troy ounce.

Comments

Transcript

  • DM
    Douglas M.
    14 August 2019 @ 03:34
    Only on a site like this would I hear someone mention Garett Garrett and his writing. Amazing. I love this site.
  • db
    don b.
    12 August 2019 @ 22:25
    I really wish they would have gone beyond just the admission that commodities have value after a 7 year bear market to looking at oil stocks for instance. Should you buy them since they are 40% cheaper than when oil was $28 a barrel? I know the standard answer is no a recession is coming but OK then when do you buy extreme valuations in commodity stocks. I know the establishment would love the answer to be never. I'm an outlier & buying E&P's. Would love to see a follow up interview that looks closer at commodity opportunities in light of trouble on the horizon.
  • ZH
    Zayd H.
    8 August 2019 @ 22:04
    Hyper intelligent conversation gentlemen.
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    7 August 2019 @ 20:15
    Kiril and Raoul the Fed is not pushing on a string they cut the string -they do not want to expand the economy only the stock market. Why is their this amazing lack of realization that when the Fed pays interest on reserves they don’t want the banks to loan money?‼️
  • OM
    Omar M.
    7 August 2019 @ 01:49
    Excellent
  • BK
    Brian K.
    3 August 2019 @ 14:55
    USA will bail out the junk bond market eventually following Japan and Euro CB.
  • DC
    D C.
    2 August 2019 @ 00:11
    Great and insightful conversation. My favorite transcribing error though has got to be on page 12 of the transcript when Kiril mentions "this very astute person in 1927" becomes, "this various dude, a person in 1927" Lol.
  • TS
    Tyler S.
    1 August 2019 @ 12:48
    you come right next to my house and we dont get drinks! sad
  • DP
    David P.
    1 August 2019 @ 02:42
    One of my favorite guest, amazing interview. My big takeaway is the shift in outlook from Mr Sokoloff compared to the previous video he did around 18 months ago. After listening to it a second time, my guess was that the change was mostly motivated by the escalation of the trade war that create a serious risk of secular change in the world. Is it about deglobalisation, dedollarisation, demographics... i wonder. My big fear is, the history of finance for the last 200 years came from the combined effect of strong demographics, increasing interconnection of the world and benign environmental impact of human activity. How do you price anything on a reversal and do we have any historically significant example of something like this happening. Black Plague in Europe maybe. Fascinating and terrifying times ahead... And bring back Mike Green, and maybe Neil Howe, for a full two hours videos on demographics please :)
  • CG
    Christine G.
    31 July 2019 @ 23:16
    Great quote at the end from Roosevelt. You need to post that so people can read it over and over and let it sink in. It may be the theme of the secular change that you brought up. While sophisticated economic types may largely dismiss it, I think that many workers on the street have an intuitive sense of it.
  • tW
    tgwtom W.
    30 July 2019 @ 19:22
    You continue to spoil us. Thank you.
  • IF
    Ian F.
    30 July 2019 @ 11:55
    Another writer from New York not understanding the trade issue. Trump is literally destroying competition for American businesses. Business owners like less competition. What more needs to be said? This isn’t a concept that needs to be complicated. Why don’t we do a piece interviewing small businesses? Or just watch the 80’s Michael Moore flick Roger & Me...
  • HM
    Hugh M.
    30 July 2019 @ 09:43
    My new favourite RV interview. Who could possibly down vote it?
  • SD
    Serenna D.
    30 July 2019 @ 01:02
    Raoul, great series. Congratulations! An observation: it seemed to me that the greatest and brightest minds in Finance these days are exhausting the capacity of the leading indicators they’ve grown to trust. Would you agree? It could just be my inexperience, but I observed it nonetheless. If ever Real Vision decided to explore new indicators to look at the global financial situation over the coming months, I’d be curious to see you incorporate some reflections on the leading discussions taking place in the humanities departments across the globe (psychology, criminology, communications, journalism, political science, economics, etc.) – these disciplines are all pointing towards a major societal event in the near future if you look at them separately. These subjects could rely on indicators that may prove useful to you when looking at other ways to parse the data.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    29 July 2019 @ 20:57
    This was a fantastic series and a great final interview with Kiril Sokoloff. I have thoroughly enjoyed each of Kiril’s pieces, whether as interviewee or interviewer. Kiril has access to many that others could only dream of getting a return phone call from. RV through their reputation and contacts has given us access to what we could never get on our own. Rather than add to the excellent substantive comments below from my fellow RV’ers I would like to delve into a “procedural” aspect if you will allow me—I hope this doesn’t generate too many thumbs down, but I feel it needs to be said. The production capability of RV is CLEARLY evolving and these segments are seemless in the excellence of their Production technique. As I have said before, it looks easy but trust me it ain’t. The lighting, the Audio, the pacing of the back and forth, as well as the clear preparation and editing to extract the “heart of the watermelon” and is second to none. I don’t want to offend the person who didn’t like the “back and forth” Camera work, but I think it is part of what makes the Production of these segments so great—from a behavioral aspect we all subtlety subconsciously gain “clues” as to how our messages are received and evaluate messages being given to us by the smallest of facial expressions (or body language) and nuances of the timing and framing of responses. To be able, in real time, for us to evaluate how a back and forth is going from great RV guests and accomplished interviewers is invaluable and adds to the richness and our tessellation of the material being presented. For instance, having been with RV almost from the beginning and having watched dozens of Raoul’s interviews I have NEVER seen him so engaged and totally focused on the answers that Kiril is giving to his questions. Raoul’s facial expressions show just how interested he is in what Kiril is going to say next—Raoul is fully and totally absorbed in this interview even though, as in most RV interviews, there has been some off camera preparation with the material to be presented. OK, enough flattery.....and on to the “trivia”....having watched Kiril’s interview with his Asian Real Estate mogul buddy Ronnie Chan several times, it’s pretty clear who Kiril was referring to due to his most excellent Ronnie Chan “impression” at one point in the interview!
  • AH
    Allan H.
    29 July 2019 @ 02:31
    Outstanding series. I enjoy the long format, almost an anti-CNBC. Thank you. As Sept/Oct. are important for your $ view., it would be great to hear non obvious views on cable as the Boris/general election/no deal situation evolves in the UK.
  • GR
    George R.
    28 July 2019 @ 22:29
    Bond market - humans. Equity market - machines. Simply put. Excellent.
  • WW
    William W.
    28 July 2019 @ 21:36
    Brilliant! The Real Vision Recession Watch interviews are worth the price of an annual subscription alone.
  • JM
    John M.
    28 July 2019 @ 20:29
    What a pleasure listening to Kiril, a bright mind and great communicator.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    28 July 2019 @ 18:23
    Great interview! Who or what has been suppressing the price of gold since 2011? thanks. SAS
    • HM
      Hugh M.
      30 July 2019 @ 09:44
      My thoughts too, I wish they'd followed up on that.
  • LL
    Lawrence L.
    28 July 2019 @ 13:47
    Fourth Turning. Yes, the road map for this generation. Best book I have read in 15 years.
  • LL
    Lawrence L.
    28 July 2019 @ 13:13
    Pro gold. Gold has been artificially suppressed since 2011. Nice to see this widely discussed.
    • AD
      Anthony D.
      28 July 2019 @ 19:44
      I've heard thoughtful experienced commentators come down on both sides of the "suppression" of gold. I would love to hear or read Mr. Sokoloff's more detailed discussion of this topic. Might he comment here?!!
  • ii
    ida i.
    28 July 2019 @ 07:26
    I don't understand why Mr. Sokoloff states that the events in Hond Kong are unfortunate, they are trying to protect democracy and probably high cost of living has contributed. Could the protests will push China to avoid a CNY devaluation for a bit? I find it unfortunate when a population becomes to elderly and dependent therefore on the State to protest anymore. Could you clarify what he meant by unfortunate?
    • ii
      ida i.
      28 July 2019 @ 07:58
      could the catalyst be the introduction of capital controls in some heavily indebted markets which block investors from bringing home cash without notice? H2O was a first taste not being able to liquidate.....
    • ly
      lena y.
      28 July 2019 @ 16:01
      Its another expression of populism! Part of the fourth turning events happens and will happen around the world! Nowhere is immune!
    • ii
      ida i.
      28 July 2019 @ 17:42
      I got a thumbs down from someone for ask a question? for wanting to understand? yes, right
    • WM
      Will M.
      3 August 2019 @ 14:32
      I suspect your thumbs down ida was because you also stated that "they are trying to protect democracy" therefore clearly signaled your support of the disturbances. Not sure what was in Kiril's mind but I certainly think that the HK Executive shot themselves in the foot not withdrawing the Extradition Bill totally given the huge extent of the negative views on it. He may have meant that all of this unrest could so easily been avoided with prudent politics. For those of us abroad, the situation in HK is a real risk because it just MIGHT spiral out of control and we could see troops on the streets.....
  • LC
    Lloyd C.
    28 July 2019 @ 06:35
    New technology in emerging markets? hmmmm. Tech in emerging markets is stolen tech. Seems to me fiat is going to be devalued over the next 20 years to informally default on debt.
    • AW
      Aaron W.
      1 August 2019 @ 11:06
      Emerging markets have historically been priced for higher rates of inflation and regular repricing of their currencies. Developed markets largely are not (particularly with 13 trillion in negative yielding bond). Developed markets have much higher pension liabilities as well. If developed markets compensate for a lack of (ponzi?) growth caused by shifting demographics & their currencies become more like emerging markets wouldn't the value of emerging market assets rise on a relative basis?
  • AS
    Alex S.
    28 July 2019 @ 02:16
    This is one of those times I wish RV had a 1-10 ranking system rather than a thumbs up/down. This would be a thumbs up x10. So obviously above and beyond what you can find anywhere else with any reasonable consistency. Even after RV devalued my original purchase price with some dubious financial engineering a while back, I still think it was the best investment decision I’ve ever made. Such win. I will have to listen at least 5 times to even begin to understand WTF is going on. And I thought I was reasonably intelligent.
  • jh
    jim h.
    27 July 2019 @ 23:35
    Great interview, as Raoul always delivers! Love to see a debate between Kiril and say Kyle Bass or Peter Zeihan. Not a cnbc shoutfest, an honest exchange of ideas in an 'agree to disagree' environment about our collective future. I keep hearing myself saying 'yes, BUT' in this interview where Kiril would say something I disagreed with and Raoul would go to the next topic. For example- 'China will rely on entrepreneur class to develop further.' Well, many of those people are Cantonese from the south not the north. Given north/south geopolitical tensions is that realistic to expect them to empower an area that historically has tended to break from the core of china? And at a time when power is centralizing? Best
  • AH
    Alfred H.
    27 July 2019 @ 22:20
    What an amazing and insightful overview. The next months are going to be telling. I have the feeling of living in a time where events of major significance are happening just a bit too quickly to get a proper fix on them. Saw the SPY hit a record on Friday on the lowest volume of the year. Another little flashing yellow light that may not mean anything. But in the context... So good to hear these insights spoken from minds with such depth of knowledge and experience. Super interview.
  • JV
    Jens V.
    27 July 2019 @ 19:21
    Awesome. RealVision has raised the bar AGAIN. Great content in the past few weeks. Thanks.
  • ii
    ida i.
    27 July 2019 @ 16:54
    may I ask a question to Raoul .... here in Europe roboadvisory is all the rage and is proposed as a solution to make consultancy affordable to everyone, which is true, and yet it worries me. If we have a downturn, won't these robots all be giving the same signals ... but too late? Roboadvisory cannot think out of the box
    • MG
      Michael G. | Contributor
      28 July 2019 @ 03:02
      Ida, which are the leading European robo advisors?
    • ii
      ida i.
      28 July 2019 @ 06:31
      to Michael G.: on the news yesterday there was the CEO of a big bank (I don't remember the name) explaining that thanks to robo advisory everyone will be able to receive financial advice at a low price. and nobody puts into question the limits and defects of roboadvisory. independent advisory could be ok, but banks have conflict of interest which is the cancer of the world.
  • GP
    Gordon P.
    27 July 2019 @ 16:50
    Awesome,Thank you Raoul & Kiril
  • NI
    Nate I.
    27 July 2019 @ 16:21
    Interesting interview. When Raoul asked about gold, Kiril said, "And it's been suppressed since 2011. So, where gold is has no reflection for its true market value. It's been artificially suppressed". Raoul, would you please ask Kiril about the mechanism by which he believes the gold price has been suppressed. Let us know in your summary video. Or Kiril, if you are reading the comments please expand. Thanks.
  • DV
    Donald V.
    27 July 2019 @ 13:14
    I will need to rewatch this series a second time. Lots of info here to digest. First thing I want to look up now is, How have active managers prevailed in EM compared to their Passive counterparts. And how much of it is because of China's massive rise over the last 19 years.
  • JS
    J S.
    27 July 2019 @ 11:06
    ‘You’re going to get zapped here, watch out ... ‘
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    27 July 2019 @ 10:21
    Folks, we do not have a recession until we have a recession! GDP just surprised to the upside! Its a clickbait subject to draw more subs. There has not been a bull on the interviews this series which biased like hell. All combined with a dollar sub for 3 months, gee! Realvision Interviews ha ve always been more on the bearish side since 2015. Get some bulls on the show. Right now not much better then zerohedge! Urban Carmel, Chris Ciovacco and Kip Herriage , Jawad Mian, JC Parets, Ryan Reeves, Tobias Carlisle, Joseph Fahmy, Walte Deemer, on the show . Last time I said Realvision is much too bearaish was 2016, the answer was there are no bulls to interview. Wrong! There are bulls out there, get them on!
    • CT
      Christopher T.
      27 July 2019 @ 12:11
      thank you!
    • BD
      Bruce D.
      27 July 2019 @ 19:51
      If the truth hurts that much, then please don’t watch......or stay comfy being leveraged long the S&P index. These are REAL PROS giving us their opinions! They are not the paid lightweight fools on CNBC. Don’t complain about what they are telling us.....use it to your advantage. The goal is to maintain the purchasing power of your investments through this entire cycle, not how much your account values are at the top. Bottom line is gold is the one thing they all seem to agree on.....buy some, or buy a lot, that’s the only decision. The pain that is coming to the uninformed is massive.
    • SL
      Scott L.
      28 July 2019 @ 22:25
      Bulls are a dime a dozen.
    • DH
      Daniel H.
      29 July 2019 @ 09:00
      2.1% is the upside? LOL!
    • AM
      A M.
      29 July 2019 @ 19:44
      0.35 of the GDP number was extra government spending. The productive part of the economy grew only 1.8%. The rate of change of most data points is slowing. However, it may be that being bullish buying both stocks and gold end up acting as a hedge against the universal policy of depreciating currencies. eg. In Weimar Germany stocks rose - but not enough to keep up with rate of currency depreciation.
    • WM
      Will M.
      3 August 2019 @ 14:23
      Given the history available to us, given the obvious state of the geopolitical world, given the government budget, looming pension & upcoming social benefits disaster across the West, anyone who would encourage a bull mindset for retail investor viewers is on very thin ice. I came to RVT to actually hear unglossed interviews and the real state of play. I am very open to bullish views on stocks that can combat the coming collapse..... So I am going to have demand "bulls" explain how the stock market will go up in light of the fundamentals. NOW having waffled on let me clearly note that Martin Armstrong does see, and clearly justifies a soaring market just a bit down the road. But that is a product in the collapse in government confidence which in itself will pose a huge risk to us all. I think Andreas there are plenty of other venues for your bias.....
  • MF
    Michael F.
    27 July 2019 @ 08:22
    Thanks for the recession watch weeks. Fantastic content, fantastic interview partners and great discussions. Would love to see more thematic series like this in the future.
  • ph
    phil h.
    27 July 2019 @ 07:40
    What a shame these two weeks are over. Fantastic reporting. Enjoyed every minute of it.
  • JW
    Joseph W.
    27 July 2019 @ 05:18
    Great interview. Would love to see Brian Reynolds back on at some point. He's been spot on since 2014. Also a big name that has disappeared recently is Jim McCaughan (Former CEO Principal Global Investors) -- a favorite and also one of the more prescient bulls of the last decade. Lastly, Tony Dwyer -- whatever bearish news I see on fintwit...tell that to Tony Dwyer!!!
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    27 July 2019 @ 03:03
    Lets balance out the bearishness and get some bulls on. Maybe give Jawad and Urban Carmel a call?
  • TF
    Tamara F.
    27 July 2019 @ 02:50
    Excellent!
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    27 July 2019 @ 01:54
    Kiril rocking some nice SLEDS!
  • MD
    Mitchel D.
    27 July 2019 @ 00:54
    Can you get google chromecast put onto your videos. Any and every video feed that is something has chromecast. If i am just missing where it is can somebody enlighten me?
    • HM
      Hugh M.
      30 July 2019 @ 09:51
      I'm fairly sure chromecast was available from the RV Andorid app a few months ago but I just checked and it looks like the functionality has been removed. Is this right, RV??
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    26 July 2019 @ 23:51
    Perfect!
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    26 July 2019 @ 23:43
    In the words of Keynes, "You can bring a horse to water, but you can't make it drink." Spot on, Kiril. Also, I loved the Wanniski reference. My favorite economist, Mike Darda, worked for him. Always a treasure trove listening to the legends like Mr. Sokoloff. Thank you for coming on!!
  • JE
    James E.
    26 July 2019 @ 23:08
    You kept the best till last. Brilliant interview. Thank you. Thank you.
  • mh
    miles h.
    26 July 2019 @ 22:52
    Watch Raoul interview Kiril and wear diamonds! Fantastic interview, thank you.
  • AB
    Amarildo B.
    26 July 2019 @ 21:49
    I want to se Marc Faber here to.
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    26 July 2019 @ 21:29
    but, this time its different! deficits don't matter. print mo' money!
  • GC
    Gerry C.
    26 July 2019 @ 21:18
    Love Kiril's clear insights and grasp of market history. THANK YOU RV
  • HA
    Hugh A.
    26 July 2019 @ 19:59
    What was the book about the 1920 that Kiril mentioned?
    • MT
      Mary T.
      28 July 2019 @ 02:00
      A Bubble that Broke the World, by Garet Garrett.
    • RL
      Rui L.
      28 July 2019 @ 21:15
      https://mises.org/library/bubble-broke-world
  • GF
    George F.
    26 July 2019 @ 19:57
    About the fed cutting rates. Trump tweeted that the US would pull out of Syria, he was overruled by the pentagon. Trump wants out of Afghanistan, so far not even a cease-fire. Trump wants the fed to cut rates.....so what? If Chairman Powell blows off Trump and is punished, he will be the first person punished for blowing off Pres Trump. I would guess that the same people who want the US military everywhere also want a strong 'imperial' dollar.
  • DS
    David S.
    26 July 2019 @ 19:35
    Great interview and series! Because of politics, I do not see a lot of MMT work done before the election. After the election I see a concerted effort to implement MMT on a broad scale by both parties to generate inflation. It will be the Sorcerer’s Apprentice for both Congress and the Administration. MMT should not be used to encourage bad behavior like forgiving debt and handouts to rich or poor. It should be used for infrastructure as the money will go into the economy and wages for workers. It should go into negative taxes for individuals, couples and families who are actually working to encourage a work ethic instead of the dole. We have time before the election to get MMT more economically directed and hopefully be more effective in the short run. I have no illusions that any Congress or any Administration will be prudent with MMT. I do believe they will always feather their own nests whenever it comes to spending other-people’s-money. Buy gold now, avoid the post MMT rush. DLS
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      27 July 2019 @ 22:52
      David ... MMT is a synonym for much "BIGGER" government... and more centralized control....... Oh! I forgot, and less freedom.
    • DS
      David S.
      28 July 2019 @ 03:28
      Patrick P. - I completely agree with you. MMT is just another form of monetizing the debt by Congress instead of the Fed. I do not think we can stop the MMT train from leaving the station. If we cannot stop it, let’s try to use it to encourage positive behavior instead of just handing out money to everyone. It will debase the currency even more. That is why I suggested to buy gold. DLS
  • AA
    ALBERTO A.
    26 July 2019 @ 18:47
    Thanks Raoul for the series. It was super insightful in peeling the onion to understand what's coming. Mr. Kiril is one of the reasons how I found RV and got hooked. Amazing thinker and is obvious why you feel he your mentor. It was interesting to hear he is not playing the bond trade? Gold check, Dollar check but it depends. Silver didnt mention but I guess he is bullish. The feeling of a fourth coming is in front of our eyes. Thanks again!
  • NH
    Neil H.
    26 July 2019 @ 18:32
    very engaging. Always great to hear from Kiril
  • HY
    Harry Y.
    26 July 2019 @ 18:26
    It's actually very easy to cause inflation, outside of what the BOJ and every other central bank is trying to do. Kiril hit upon it. You can revalue and fix the price of gold to $3000 or $5000 an ounce (whatever level you want) and defend that peg within 1%. Instant, overnight inflation.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      27 July 2019 @ 22:54
      And I think you forgot ...blood in the streets.....
  • DS
    David S.
    26 July 2019 @ 18:17
    Personal consumption expenditures rose 4.3% in the second quarter while gross private domestic investment declined 5.5%. It would be interesting to hear an economist discuss the second quarter GDP including consumer spending, savings, IRA withdrawals, etc. Is this different from the past? How is it affecting the market? How will it affect the election? Thanks. DLS
  • dw
    douglas w.
    26 July 2019 @ 18:08
    Wow! This interview was even better than the first interview in Bermuda. Thanks to Raoul and Mr. Sokoloff for their tremendous insight. The comment on gold as true money / sophisticated asset is a key take away for me.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    26 July 2019 @ 18:04
    Raoul thank-you so much for a completely brilliant series on the evaluation of a recession!!!!! Excellent work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • MM
    Mike M.
    26 July 2019 @ 17:48
    Love Kiril's response to the bond and equity market divergence: "Bond market is run by humans, stock market is run by machines"
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    26 July 2019 @ 17:46
    Raoul and RV team - you guys really outdid yourselves with this one...it was absolutely fantastic, and for me personally, it was worth its weight in gold (excuse the pun ;-). Best RV interview all year long, IMHO. You have set the bar extremely high with this one, and I think future interviews will have a hard standard to live up to. Kiril is a huge asset to your network -- please bring him back soon. I learn so much listening to him, both in terms of current events and historically. I can easily see why he would be a mentor for Raoul, or any top-notch, astute and thoughtful investor. I am encouraged by his comments on the current environment, as many of his remarks and insights concur completely with my own hunches and perspectives. It's incredible to me that it took so long for this cycle to end - but algos plus an irresponsible Fed determined to punt the cycle, and an irresponsible US government determined to conduct more fiscal stimulus at any cost, were key factors. My money is on the fact that Kiril is bang on the money: though he doesn't say it outright, the cycle is almost certainly ending this year. Actually, I think it's already ending, and the Fed is right now "pushing on a string." The narrative has shifted, and even as we've seen this week, improved earnings year-over-year are starting to prompt share price falls. Why? Simple - expectations of future business are poor at best...and it is systemic, not localised. Plain as day, I think, if you listen carefully, and read between the lines. Thank you all once again - this interview alone would be worth the older, higher price of RV subscription for an entire year. Nothing I've seen in any other financial media platform even comes close.
  • RE
    Richard E. | Contributor
    26 July 2019 @ 17:37
    With all due respect, "the bond market run by humans and the stock market by machines"? There isn't any manipulation by the bond market due to central bank buying and regulations that force pensions and insurance to only be able to buy the bond market?
    • DG
      David G.
      26 July 2019 @ 21:44
      They are talking about the algos
    • DS
      David S.
      26 July 2019 @ 22:11
      The Fed is run by humans and all its mistakes and manipulations are human. A fatal flaw in the pension market is the defined pension plan coupled with the belief in high market returns regardless of the economy. Most corporation, who were able, converted defined pension plans to other types of retirement plans during the last 50 years. It was and is hubristic to think that the market return in safe assets would be able to keep defined pension plans current. It is even worse in the Federal government that pays for pension out of current revenues. Defaults in pension plans is just one more area that Congress may use MMT to feather their own nests. The pension problems are just starting. DLS
  • BP
    Bob P.
    26 July 2019 @ 17:16
    I've watched all of these multiple times (well, not the crypto guy). Well done - really great series. keep doing it.
  • SL
    Seth L.
    26 July 2019 @ 16:42
    The ending quote is haunting
    • GC
      Gerry C.
      26 July 2019 @ 21:08
      "History may not repeat but it rhymes"
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      27 July 2019 @ 00:00
      But...but...but...this time is different! Isn't it??
  • RM
    R M.
    26 July 2019 @ 16:36
    As a RV sub since the beginning, I really appreciate these long format interviews. Simply cannot get this anywhere else. So thanks! Also, to Raoul's point that the Fed cannot get inflation, well when MMT hits after the next election (both parties will use some form of MMT) and $s flow to the bottom 99% rather than just the top 1%, then the govt will finally be generate inflation, and probably lots of it.
  • DG
    David G.
    26 July 2019 @ 16:21
    Any advice for someone who is not an experienced investor and has his money in index funds, what to do now?
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      26 July 2019 @ 19:39
      David - While I can't obviously give you direct advice, what I would do, were I to be in the position you have stated, is probably liquidate most of my positions in the index funds and move to selected "defensive" sectors in the equity market. I would also significantly reduce my position in the overall equity market. I also know that Jim Rickards - who is brilliant - and others recommend 5-10% of total assets allocated to gold / silver in a business-as-usual economic environment. In the current madness, one could make an argument for doubling this percentage (or even more), depending on your risk appetite and knowledge of the markets. If you're in the US, one smart group to check out is a group called New Harbour Financial. They seem to have their heads on their shoulders, when many others in the financial advice industry frankly don't. Hope this helps. Again, this isn't financial advice - just suggestions and food for thought. Warm regards, Jesse.
    • DG
      David G.
      26 July 2019 @ 21:46
      Thanks Hesse! greatly appreciated!
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      27 July 2019 @ 00:08
      Buy all of Jim Rickards books. Then buy Bill Bonner's books New Empire of Debt and Hormageddon. Read aforementioned books. Then decide how much of your net worth you want in gold, silver, gold stocks and silver stocks you want. Then subscribe to a few quality newsletters. I would recommend The Junior Miner Junky by David Erfle, Daily Gold by Jordan Roy-Byrne, Mining Stock Journal by Dave Kranzler and The Morgan report by David Morgan.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      27 July 2019 @ 01:08
      You’re welcome, David. If you don’t want to do all the work yourself (ie. you don’t want investing to take up a lot of your time and energy), definitely consider getting a high-quality financial advisor / asvisory firm you feel you can trust with the legal contracts / covenants to back it up. Hence the suggestion to look at New Harbour Financial. They seem like good people - that’s my impression anyway, from speaking to them and from the recommendations of others I highly respect (such as Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart of Peak Prosperity). Again, as you know, not investment advice and you will need to make your own decisions. But just some basic guidelines / framework for thinking about things and making good asset allocation choices. Cheers mate.
    • TH
      Truman H.
      27 July 2019 @ 04:24
      Sell
    • SW
      Steven W.
      31 July 2019 @ 02:49
      Jim Stack and Investech is a relatively inexpensive, easy to implement and reliable way to access an ETF model portfolio with some sector rotation.
  • pj
    paul j.
    26 July 2019 @ 16:07
    Kiril has such an AUthentic and AUthoritative grasp of the world that it would AUgur well for the AUdience to AUdit their portfolios.
    • RM
      R M.
      26 July 2019 @ 16:39
      cute.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      26 July 2019 @ 19:40
      Haha - indeed, Paul.
    • RF
      Robert F.
      26 July 2019 @ 22:05
      He has an AGile mind and appears AGgreeable to commodities and isn’t AGainst, but Agnostic to silver, even though it could feather his nest in old AGe.
  • LW
    Lorenz W.
    26 July 2019 @ 15:34
    Great video, lots of gems - thank you! Looks like Precious Metals and the Miners are the best protection of what’s potentially to come. I guess a gold confiscation is also in the cards. Does anyone know if shareholdings in miners worked well in the past when physical gold became illegal?
    • RM
      Richard M.
      26 July 2019 @ 15:47
      I'm not sure if confiscation is really an issue now. Back then we were on a dollar system "backed" by gold, that is no longer the case. Gold is just a commodity in the gov't/CB eyes at this point (although one they seem to accumulating as others are so they definitely believe it has value).
    • DC
      Dave C.
      26 July 2019 @ 20:19
      Confiscation happened in the US in the 1930's - it is down to personal risk assessment regarding potential for a repeat. This link covers performance of Gold mining stocks in the 30's http://news.goldseek.com/SpeculativeInvestor/1231103477.php
    • DK
      D K.
      27 July 2019 @ 01:16
      Can’t confiscate gold outside of US borders.
  • RR
    Robert R.
    26 July 2019 @ 15:31
    To the entire Real Vision team: Thank you for all of the effort that goes into delivering the best content in the industry. It is incredible to be able to listen to discussions between some of the most brilliant minds in their respective fields. Amazing interview! The ease with which Kiril can reference similarities between today and the not so obvious points in domestic and global economic/financial history is astonishing.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      26 July 2019 @ 16:18
      That is very kind Robert. Thank you for being part of our journey.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      26 July 2019 @ 19:42
      Completely agree - this interview was simply awesome. And I may watch it again in the future, though my thoughts almost entirely concur with the way Kiril is looking at things. Someone from whom we can all learn a great deal. Raoul, please have him back again soon, if possible.
  • LA
    Linda A.
    26 July 2019 @ 15:23
    Excellent series- thank u. Astute observations & Kiril is "king of diplomacy"- refusing to name names. Even with lowering interest rates people are no longer suckers in buying these inflated assets. I have changed my opinion to a lower dollar stance since the FED is going to lower interest rates despite being negative interest rates in other major economies. I think massive debt matters regardless of all these MMT people saying it doesn't matter. Gold & PM to prevail - they are the most inexpensive assets right now relative to all other assets.
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    26 July 2019 @ 15:13
    Its a shame I now need to turn off every video for the last minute. Stop advertising on your content.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      26 July 2019 @ 16:19
      We do run a business. If we don't, there would be no Real Vision. Your choice. Honestly.
    • DS
      David S.
      26 July 2019 @ 23:57
      Just use the 15 second fast-forward button four times and you are out free. As an early subscriber I do not mind the ad at the end. I think that RVTV can make a real difference in advertising for their clients. With 55 minutes of fantastic content, one minute of fast forward is not too much to ask. DLS
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      27 July 2019 @ 00:34
      Raoul (may I call you Raoul?), Andrew's comment is yet another classic example of, "You can p[lease some of the people..." and so on. As far as this sub is concerned, advertise all you want. As long as the content is superb (and it is) we will all watch and (hopefully) learn.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      27 July 2019 @ 01:14
      I understand where you’re coming from, Andrew, but in fairness to RV, they aren’t advertising at the beginning or in the middle. It’s at the end of the video. If it doesn’t pertain to you, just switch it off as I do. If this helps them run their business and it’s the way they want to roll, then so be it. The content is still superb, and that’s the key in my mind.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      27 July 2019 @ 23:09
      Hey Andrew .... really petty... My Trumpian thought ......"go back where you came from"
    • WM
      Will M.
      3 August 2019 @ 14:04
      Andrew understand your feelings but RVT needs to ensure it can sustain and grow to keep providing us with the quality videos we have just witnessed during recession week. Just use the 15 sec forward or skip to the end and hold the negativity.
  • SW
    Sze W.
    26 July 2019 @ 14:49
    He always has this pro China undertone, like they are this innocent and good global actor, makes me wonder if he has significant interest in China.
    • tc
      t c.
      26 July 2019 @ 15:32
      Remember his interview with some Chinese guy last year. Insipid nonsense. Belonged in front of a high school class. Redeemed himself a bit with Druckenmiller.
    • DS
      David S.
      27 July 2019 @ 00:17
      Sze W, and t c. - You worry about Mr. Sokoloff’s bias which I see as pragmatic. I did not see either of you comment about Mr. Bass’s China bias which I see as agenda based on his currency shorts. Since Mr. Sokoloff's recommendations are to buy gold and be careful of your own liquidity, I feel that he is telling it as he sees it. DLS
    • AK
      Arthur K.
      28 July 2019 @ 12:32
      Agree. At least he came out in favor of Hong Kong independence .
  • GH
    Gary H.
    26 July 2019 @ 14:42
    Outstanding and thought provoking. Kiril said the price of Gold has been supressed. How and by whom would be interesting to hear from this Legend.
    • TJ
      Terry J.
      26 July 2019 @ 21:38
      Check out the GATA website Gary where I think you will find the answer to your question. Additionally if you want indisputable proof of how this has been going on for decades, read Dmitri Speck's "The Gold Cartel".
  • KM
    Kacem M.
    26 July 2019 @ 14:34
    Great interview. Keep up the good work!
  • DD
    Daljit D.
    26 July 2019 @ 13:56
    Fantastic series! Nice going RV
  • DP
    D P.
    26 July 2019 @ 13:25
    Was that fellow who persuaded Roosevelt to devalue the dollar against gold G. F. Warren? Gold and Prices is a great read!
    • DV
      Donald V.
      27 July 2019 @ 08:16
      Farm management G.F Warren?
  • MS
    Mark S.
    26 July 2019 @ 13:25
    Raoul, outstanding 2 weeks. You've spoken with many people over the past 2 weeks. It would be good to do a short video of yourself summarizing your thoughts and what you've learned if anything, what has made you possibly change your view, maybe new thoughts on what is of the utmost importance to confirm your recession view (aside from the movement of the dollar which you've made clear) etc.
    • BB
      Brooks B.
      26 July 2019 @ 14:19
      Looking at their content calendar on the home page it looks like your request is getting released tomorrow (Saturday)
    • MS
      Mark S.
      26 July 2019 @ 16:03
      I see that this request is being fulfilled tomorrow, thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      26 July 2019 @ 16:20
      Your wish is my command.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      27 July 2019 @ 04:46
      Raoul, please have Victor Sperandeo return in January or February of 2020.
  • DL
    David L.
    26 July 2019 @ 12:58
    People are running the bond market, machines are running the stock market.... Great stuff!
    • DV
      Donald V.
      27 July 2019 @ 08:12
      in my book, it means there are an f-load of people that love negative-yielding bonds. Hard for me to fathom they are homo sapiens too.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    26 July 2019 @ 11:45
    Kiril & Raoul, this was a real treat and a great way to start the weekend!
  • MD
    Mark D.
    26 July 2019 @ 11:42
    Technology been source of deflation for sure. The low cost of capital has invited hosts of folk to destroy capital in a multitude of ways as well. Which has had the bigger impact in the last decade? Either seemingly not quantifiable.
  • SG
    Sven G.
    26 July 2019 @ 11:01
    excellent conversation, very interesting content thanks Raoul & Kiril. One comment... way too many camera changes. Side view is all that is needed.
  • ME
    Michael E.
    26 July 2019 @ 10:33
    Excellent video.
  • AB
    Alain B.
    26 July 2019 @ 10:25
    Can't believe this is the last of two weeks on recession, it's been a fascinating series and what a finish with Mr Sokoloff and the parting quote from FDR. Well done RV team.
  • TH
    Timo H.
    26 July 2019 @ 09:47
    This series ended with a bang! Thanks Raoul and all the guests. You really have raised the bar high.
  • jl
    jay l.
    26 July 2019 @ 08:58
    thank you kiril
  • VN
    Varun N.
    26 July 2019 @ 08:23
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/25/china-business-xi-jinping-communist-party-state-private-enterprise-huawei Above article seems to indicate that before Xi private firms were indeed driving growth but that maybe changing. At the time Xi took office, private firms were responsible for about 50% of all investment in China and about 75% of economic output. But as Nicholas Lardy, a US economist who has long studied the Chinese economy, concluded in a recent study, “Since 2012, private, market-driven growth has given way to a resurgence of the role of the state.” Very insightful interview regardless!
  • TE
    Tito E.
    26 July 2019 @ 08:07
    Guests and interviews this week have been unreal. I've really enjoyed it.
    • DH
      Damian H. | Founder
      26 July 2019 @ 09:02
      Unreal Vision...
  • LZ
    Lei Z.
    26 July 2019 @ 07:22
    legend!
    • tr
      tom r.
      26 July 2019 @ 20:33
      Loved this timely video and it was actually in focus. Thankyou for that Raoul. I am just finishing "The Fourth Turning" wow, what a book. People who don't know about the four turnings are at great risk as we are only about 5 years away from the fourth.