What Your Broker Won’t Tell You

Published on
April 2nd, 2019
Duration
36 minutes

What Your Broker Won’t Tell You

Tony Greer Interviews ·
Featuring Jared Dillian

Published on: April 2nd, 2019 • Duration: 36 minutes

Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, sits down with Jared Dillian, author of a market newsletter called “The Daily Dirtnap.” Greer and Dillian discuss monetary policy, portfolio construction and the dirty little secret your broker won’t tell you. Dillian also sheds light on his shifting focus from institutions to retail investors. Filmed on March 15, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • AB
    AJ B.
    22 April 2019 @ 16:56
    I would implore Jarred to not teach the public Modern Portfolio Theory 2.0, which seems to be make a cookie cutter portfolio with more bonds than stocks, and accept a lower rate of return because you cannot weather the selloffs. Instead, teach them what makes a security valuable and breed more intelligent market participants rather than mindless droids.
  • SG
    Steve G.
    7 April 2019 @ 23:38
    Fantastic interview...the last 10 minutes were exceptionally superb.
  • PP
    Peter P.
    7 April 2019 @ 13:37
    Great chat. The only SIFI one can think of to engineer a global liquidity issue is a German SIFI that Raoul has flagged for a number of years and which ended last year down more than 50pct. The bigger name runs derivatives off its books to the tune of $100bn a year, and now we need an emergency merger, the German government trying to force a wedding between two home champions. Makes one wonder if the people who can take their derivatives elsewhere have done so (much like a loan book - the good borrowers can borrow elsewhere) and if there is a lot of who knows what left behind. That same German SIFI many years ago took over a lot of NY real estate exposure (perhaps the most of any US bank) when it bought out Bankers Trust - which itself allegedly had gone insolvent - why that merger was allowed.
  • RS
    Robert S.
    6 April 2019 @ 14:58
    Great interview Tony....Really enjoyed as usual..
  • SS
    Shaeffer S.
    4 April 2019 @ 19:42
    Great job TG & Jared. I'm looking forward to the interview series TG. Keep bringin' it.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      8 April 2019 @ 15:58
      Thanks Shaeffer!
  • IF
    Ian F.
    4 April 2019 @ 17:24
    Biggest difference between practitioners and academics; the practitioners are humble just like these gentlemen. The Jim Grants of the world, who have never traded a single market in their entire lives are arrogant, never wrong and often dangerous. NJ gents.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    4 April 2019 @ 14:22
    Great interview between two of the (very few) people in finance for whom I would use the term "genuine". Excellent insights and well worth the listen. Thanks!
  • JL
    James L.
    4 April 2019 @ 04:49
    awesome idea getting TG to interview people, thanks RV
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      8 April 2019 @ 15:59
      couldn't agree more ; )
  • NZ
    Nicolas Z.
    3 April 2019 @ 19:22
    Tony cut him off right while he was talking about buying calls on green eurodollars...
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      8 April 2019 @ 15:59
      My apologies!
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    3 April 2019 @ 15:09
    Really happy you both had the discussion about Gold and Bitcoin, as I know you've both had divergent views on these assets. Interesting that your views appear to have aligned or are aligning...
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    3 April 2019 @ 13:33
    Excellent!!
  • JM
    John M.
    3 April 2019 @ 04:24
    Nicely done Tony!
  • WB
    William B.
    3 April 2019 @ 04:22
    Great stuff, although I struggle with Jarred’s musical choices. But I’m old enough to be his possible grandfather, so ...
    • WB
      William B.
      3 April 2019 @ 04:24
      Sorry. Jared, not Jarred.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    3 April 2019 @ 04:01
    Great interview. Hard to picture how some beltway concoction of rate suppression, MMT, and a wealth tax wouldn't be positive for gold, silver, etc.
  • LE
    Loui E.
    3 April 2019 @ 02:48
    Great video! Would love to hear update from Tony on COPX!
  • ml
    michael l.
    3 April 2019 @ 01:54
    True story, very similar to the one JD mentioned...I was part of Lehman's Industrial Group in NY in early 2000. We (MD's down to analysts) were brought into a room in early March 2000, told that Industrials were dead as a source of banking revenue well into the future, and that we were all now Technology bankers. As we left the room, we received a large stack of Tech research reports to "get us up to speed" on our new coverage sector. The Nasdaq would peak at 5,000 less than one week later.
  • AS
    Abdi S.
    3 April 2019 @ 01:11
    Love the JD Interview. This guy is a real human being and huge fan.
  • MA
    Matthew A.
    3 April 2019 @ 00:15
    Let Greer Steer!
  • NH
    Neil H.
    2 April 2019 @ 23:59
    35/55/10 really. When the long bond was higher this makes total sense at 2.5 on the long bond today this will turn out to be a major mistake unless the long bond goes to zero or lower.
  • SA
    Stephen A.
    2 April 2019 @ 23:28
    Good discussion, but I am a little disappointed that Jared went straight from MMT to higher gold prices. Sounds like a gold salesman preying on unsuspecting customers. Stephanie Kelton has written papers on how a critical part of making MMT effective is explicit suppression of gold and commodity prices. Big part of MMT is forcing people to work and allowing speculation in metals allows some people to skip working and thus skip paying taxes. If MMT rules the world, the authorities will have gold in a straightjacket. Other than that good interview and Jared is on point that the 80/20 portfolio is not appropriate for retail and the financial industry should pick portfolios with better sharpes.
    • KJ
      Keith J.
      3 April 2019 @ 10:51
      So it sounds like the key is to get gold now while you still can. Then you will have something worthwhile when the MMT experiment has failed.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      3 April 2019 @ 15:03
      I don't understand how Stephanie Kelton can suppress the prices of scarce resources. Based on Venezuela and Argentina, this would more than likely lead to a divergence between an official price and a black market price as the commodity in question becomes increasingly scarce! This is what has led to empty grocery store shelves in both Venezuela and Argentina. Stephanie Kelton is increasingly coming across as a "Magical Thinker" (to paraphrase Ben Hunt) to me...
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      3 April 2019 @ 15:07
      You're also assuming a geopolitically fracturing World goes full unity on MMT. I'd respectfully suggest this won't be the case, and wealth will flow to the non-implementing countries to be hoarded - my money is on Singapore being one of them. Sure, any Government that implements this policy could try to impose Capital Controls to prevent this, but the writing is on the wall to anybody ahead of the curve who is observing which way the political winds are now blowing. It will just end up being another case of politicians closing the stable doors after the horse has already bolted.
    • AZ
      Angelo Z.
      3 April 2019 @ 17:49
      Good luck with the straight jacket. Are you familiar with the SGE? Also kind of hard to keep commodities supressed when crops failures are increasing due to various ecological happenings.
    • SS
      Shaeffer S.
      4 April 2019 @ 19:41
      Jared may be a lot of things, but a "gold salesman preying on unsuspecting customers" is not one of them.
  • JR
    Jason R.
    2 April 2019 @ 23:21
    Great Interview. Really enjoy both Jared and Tony. I appreciate how Jared conveys his thoughts and ideas, His points and positions come across clearly -- and he doesn't have a problem taking a contrarian view. Thank you
  • RX
    Robert X.
    2 April 2019 @ 22:55
    Would have loved to hear you guys name names on who might have been under duress in December - theories abound...
  • JD
    Jeremy D.
    2 April 2019 @ 22:29
    Vampire squid.
  • JE
    James E.
    2 April 2019 @ 21:03
    Great guys, always enjoy Jared's analysis.
  • JP
    John P.
    2 April 2019 @ 21:02
    'Freaking'ing awesome! I loved it.
  • JK
    Jack K.
    2 April 2019 @ 21:00
    We've been managing money along the lines of 35/55/3/3/4 lines for 30+ years. It's nice to hear someone else talk about it. There is surprisingly little research easily available on it. Nice to know we aren't the only ones on the island. Thanks Jared.
  • WW
    William W.
    2 April 2019 @ 20:51
    Perhaps I misunderstood, but back-testing a portfolio over a single 20-year period? And, wasn't that 20-year period one in which the DJ Corp Bond Index total return was higher than the S&P 500 total return? Lastly, no matter the makeup, it seems to me that all "one-size-fits-all" portfolios fall into the passive investing camp which has no regard for price discovery--an essential component of a market.
  • GO
    Grant O.
    2 April 2019 @ 20:34
    Love the opening bit about the heyday at Lehman. Solid interview
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    2 April 2019 @ 20:01
    I loved this. Plain and simple. Extremely useful
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    2 April 2019 @ 20:01
    I love the mix Dillon speaks of. Great conversation after 40 plus years in the business I see the wisdom. Thanks RV, get Dillon to come back... Great job
  • DF
    Diamantino F.
    2 April 2019 @ 19:49
    Great stuff , down to earth , honest , thank you Tony and JD
  • DF
    Diamantino F.
    2 April 2019 @ 19:47
    buy calls on green eurodollars????
    • TL
      Taylor L.
      2 April 2019 @ 21:42
      Green is just the futures color code, so it's the 3rd year (2021)
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    2 April 2019 @ 18:19
    Good listen. To RV, running on Firefox/Mozilla, when I go full screen the timer is permanently in the middle, no way to get rid of it. Tried moving the mouse out to the side, going from full screen back to browser, back to full screen. Tried clicking mouse on the outer end of the screen. Would appreciate help if there is an answer. Thanks.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      2 April 2019 @ 18:57
      Hey Ken - A quick fix would be open your Firefox settings and clear the cache and cookies for Real Vision and then log back in. If this doesn’t do it, let me know in our chat or email and we’ll get to the bottom of this.
    • JL
      J L.
      2 April 2019 @ 21:13
      click pause and play, ive had the same problem for years, maybe rv should spend some time on technical stuff instead of changing the colour scheme an 8th time
    • MA
      Melanie A.
      4 April 2019 @ 00:27
      FYI - I had the same issue with Chrome (usually it's a little finicky but on this particular video I couldn't get the timer off at all in full screen mode)
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      30 June 2019 @ 22:12
      i don`t seem to have that problem using Brave
  • SH
    Simon H.
    2 April 2019 @ 17:58
    Did Dillian go to Yale, his philosophy sounds like R. Shiller.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 April 2019 @ 18:05
      No Sir. Coast Guard Academy.
  • FC
    Frank C. | Contributor
    2 April 2019 @ 16:57
    I’m fortunate to be a long time subscriber to, and friend of, both Jared and Tony. Authentic as they come, both professionally and personally. Loved this.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 April 2019 @ 18:05
      You're the best Frank!
  • fc
    flavio c.
    2 April 2019 @ 15:15
    Nice content in this talk! thanks
  • WB
    Wes B.
    2 April 2019 @ 15:11
    I have to admit that I enjoy blowing up JD on twitter every now and then but both these guys are really likable. I do take issue with the bond trade though. If they cap rates on bonds I think on real basis you likely get destroyed. I agree don't short them, but I don't think in a scenario where they cap yields (to let inflation run to inflate away debts) you want to be in bonds. Great interview though.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    2 April 2019 @ 14:50
    great and refreshing discussion. I would like to challenge Jared though on his point that gold supply - demand matters. He is correct in noting the coming supply decline but physical only makes max 5% of daily trading volume while 95% is paper. Therefore as long as rehypothecation is allowed or continued I struggle to envision that players will be bothered by the declining mine supply. Ultimately in the end game, yes it may but then I am sure that bullion banks and CB will try to monetize some of the above ground supply hidden in savings, be that in India or even in the US (as they did before). What is true that the physical flow is still west to east and that physical is not returning any time soon.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 April 2019 @ 15:21
      Thanks Wes. I respect that view as well.
  • AA
    ALBERTO A.
    2 April 2019 @ 14:38
    Real guys Real Issues! Great interview.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    2 April 2019 @ 13:17
    A guest that actually makes calls, very refreshing
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      2 April 2019 @ 13:17
      Tony g as interviewer is awesome too
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 April 2019 @ 13:50
      Thank you Matthew.
  • DH
    Damian H. | Founder
    2 April 2019 @ 12:38
    This is a great film: Human. Honest. Open. Fascinating. Educational. Cool.... Great work Tony and Jared.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 April 2019 @ 12:53
      When your mentor digs your work ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Thanks D.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    2 April 2019 @ 12:38
    The weather will fix the commodities market, just look around in our country. Secure food WILL be the next battle fought, watch China.....
  • JZ
    Jeffrey Z. | Real Vision
    2 April 2019 @ 12:35
    Enjoyed this... REAL talk, well-done lads.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 April 2019 @ 12:52
      Thank you J-Zi.
  • XP
    X P.
    2 April 2019 @ 12:32
    Amazing thank you both!! (I need to find myself a job where I can swear and break phones!)
  • VS
    Vasil S.
    2 April 2019 @ 11:18
    Loved the trading anecdote at the beggining. Didn’t understand it in full, sure, but loved it!
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    2 April 2019 @ 11:00
    Great job Tony and Jared! Riveting from the first minute....Its not even 5.30am and Im glued to this!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      2 April 2019 @ 11:47
      Thanks man - we knew JD would be a unique guest. Diggin' it.
  • JA
    James A.
    2 April 2019 @ 10:15
    Quality. Could have just as much been a talk over 5 beers as an interview and reminds me very much of my own personal relationshipsand friends in finance. Go energy xle !