Winning with Agriculture Investing – Alan Boyce

Featuring Alan Boyce

Former Fed economist and bond trader, turned farming investor, Alan Boyce talks us through the expected forward price action for some of the the key agricultural commodities and his ideas of where to invest now.

Published on
9 September, 2016
Career, Soft Commodities, Food agriculture
62 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Commodities


  • PB

    Pieter B.

    26 3 2018 09:18

    3       0

    Raoul: would it be possible to have Alain back? Thank you!

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    8 8 2017 11:57

    0       0

    That was a really interesting interview. I hope RV can get Alan back in the near future as I learned a lot listening to him speak.

  • Ml

    Mike l.

    27 6 2017 03:38

    0       0

    Real vision needs more interviews like this especially covering areas in Agriculture & private markets rather than traditional public market investing. With central bank policy around dictating much of the movements in public markets, some of the real idiosyncratic value are within areas such as Ag, real assets and other private markets.

  • RH

    Rob H.

    12 2 2017 20:03

    9       0

    Well, he was wrong about one thing, Real Vision does have a viewer Visalia Ca. I'm a crop insurance agent in Exeter Ca and all of my clients are in the ag space, I will most certainly talk about this interview with my clients. This interview has really hit home with me and the points he makes about ag here in the central Ca valley are spot on. He failed to mention the nitrates level law in ground water. Several of the large family farms are now having to defend themselves since the state water management agency has found high levels of nitrates in the water below their farms and are now telling them they are responsible for cleaning it up. These underground aquifers are huge the nitrates could have come from many sources even natural sources. I'm convinced that the state of California wants to turn the valley back into a desert. I loved that he spoke about the flip site of global warming, what if these models are flat wrong and we have spent all of our resources on a warmer tomorrow and we get a colder tomorrow? Truly a very thought provoking interview. I look forward to seeing an update, heck I will even watch this one again in a few months I'm sure I will see something I missed the first time.

  • MN

    Mark N.

    11 2 2017 23:56

    0       0

    Definitely in the top 10 of my favorite interviews, this guy is so smart.

  • SC

    Shane C.

    23 1 2017 19:24

    0       0

    Indianapolis farm land... love it!!!!

  • BP

    Barry P.

    12 1 2017 22:31

    1       0

    Excellent perspectives, incredible experience and background. Very much look forward to update interviews if possible.

  • ML

    Michael L.

    2 10 2016 01:58

    3       0

    brilliant. Please have him back!!

  • PP

    Peter P.

    23 9 2016 16:30

    0       0

    Love opportunity of an informed expert speaker on Soft Commodities. Great diversification in interviews. Thank You

  • AV

    Alvern V.

    17 9 2016 23:48

    3       0

    Fascinating interview. His insight on the Fed was great. Totally agree with his take on Ag in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Water is going to be a bigger deal going forward. If you're into California history and farming, you should read The King of California. Book about the JG Boswell Company.

  • MD

    Marian D.

    17 9 2016 14:42

    1       0

    Brilliant interview!!
    Bring him back to talk about his renewable investements!!!

  • JL

    Jeremy L.

    17 9 2016 10:43

    2       0

    Awesome. Would be nice to get him back to talk about his renewables investing.

  • sf

    santiago f.

    16 9 2016 23:03

    1       0

    So many great trading ideas that we will run out of capital to invest. Sharp statements and brilliant connections. One more reason to be hooked on RVTv

  • F

    Floyd .

    16 9 2016 15:23

    2       0

    strong interview with valuable information and perspectives WITH actionable ideas!!!

  • JE

    Jag E.

    16 9 2016 12:32

    2       0

    Jacob L. SEK and NOK are not pegged, like DKK is to €

  • MS

    Mark S.

    14 9 2016 23:07

    2       0

    This interview has just become my all time favorite. His knowledge of worldwide ag markets was very impressive! There were probably at least 6 tradable ideas put forward. "Agriculture is not for tourists." Love it!! Thanks for a great interview Raoul, and thanks RVTV.

  • DE

    Daniel E.

    14 9 2016 17:48

    0       0

    Excellent interview. Anyone can suggest best place to start learning about agriculture investing for someone without experience in commods or agriculture? Thx

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    14 9 2016 11:29

    2       0

    Stunning interview! Please have him back! I was a little disappointed about the technology side of agriculture though - especially since mentioning "ultra modern farming methods" in the intro. How are automatization and new technologies impacting farming? Would also love to know about his renewable projects.

  • PW

    Phil W.

    13 9 2016 19:05

    0       0

    Yes just brilliant, you must invite him back for round two!!!!

  • SJ

    Stephen J.

    13 9 2016 05:47

    2       0

    Brilliant!! I throughly enjoy listening to and learning from incredibly smart people, of which he is at the top of the list.

  • JM

    Joseph M.

    12 9 2016 20:23

    3       0

    all i can think about is Michael Burry's almond farms now

  • JM

    Justin M.

    12 9 2016 17:06

    2       0

    Hot Damn, this guy is truly brilliant. I would give my left nut to be half as smart as him. Impressive interview.

  • IH

    Iain H.

    12 9 2016 10:38

    0       0

    Really enjoyed this varied discussion

  • SJ

    Suzanne J.

    12 9 2016 05:41

    0       0

    Wonderful discussion - another please.

  • jd

    john d.

    12 9 2016 01:36

    2       0

    Very interesting about the depletion of water aquifers. I would recommend reading a recent National Geographic article about the Mid West aquifers being depleted to the point that the impact on farmers will rival the 1930's dust bowl.

  • JP

    JM P.

    11 9 2016 07:29

    1       0

    Would leave predicated on Brexit example ignores the fact these 2 countries have done all they can to preserve middle class. Revolution thru the ballot unlikely.

  • JP

    JM P.

    11 9 2016 07:27

    2       0

    Interesting theory that largest euro countries to leave EU first. Wasnt Grexit anglosaxon medias darling theme for years before Brexit surprises Everybody incl. Soros? Idea that France or Germany woul

  • KB

    Karl B.

    11 9 2016 02:37

    17       1

    Great interview, his bullish case on ag is well made and the way in which he is expressing that bullish view is very interesting. In particular the theme of the millennial food products will continue to run, both in terms of the types of commodities (fruit, nuts, etc) and also on the packaged food side. There has been a lot of value creation from packaged food start up companies in recent years and the incumbent large food companies are having to pay huge multiples to acquire this growth.

    I liked the perspective on California, yet even today there exists the ability to replicate his Argentine trade. You can buy farmland in certain south american countries like Chile that have comparable growing conditions to California, but at a much lower cost and with great access to water, you also benefit from the counter seasonality

    One caveat, there is a lot of money being invested in ag tech which could make production much more efficient, definitely something to keep an eye out on.

    Don't buy corn/wheat etf's, terrible contango, especially for wheat!

  • SG

    Sherman G.

    11 9 2016 01:43

    0       0

    Agree with Peter L. Have him return. I like the north / south hemisphere knowledge of this guest.

  • SN

    Scott N.

    10 9 2016 22:04

    5       0

    One of my favourite videos, definitely a sector I will begin to study!

  • MV

    Michael V.

    10 9 2016 20:55

    7       0

    This was brilliant. Would love to see this guy back.

  • DR

    Daniel R.

    10 9 2016 16:38

    29       0

    Priceless! Great education on ag, but what made me smile the most was Mr Boyce's explanation of the Fed's myopia: lack of (intellectual, experiential) bio diversity leads to a big echo chamber. Now there's a big fat truth.

  • PL

    Peter L.

    10 9 2016 15:25

    14       0 of the best videos and probably the best talking about commodities. please have him on again!

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    10 9 2016 14:09

    1       0


  • KB

    Kreso B.

    10 9 2016 13:56

    1       49

    For so knowledgeable man, to spend 1 hour pitching his commodity's strategy... Shame.

  • BR

    Blake R.

    10 9 2016 12:19

    31       0

    "When you get spectacularly bullish or bearish news and the market doesn't move, that tells you which way people are positioned." I'm putting this quote on the wall in my office.

  • UB

    Umberto B.

    10 9 2016 10:37

    3       0

    Excellent, excellent, excellent!!!

  • MY

    Madjid Y.

    10 9 2016 09:09

    2       0

    Excellent. thank you

  • PF

    Peter F.

    10 9 2016 07:07

    3       0

    I'm definitely a buyer of the 'millennial soft commodity ETF' when it comes out. What a fascinating insight into both the supply & demand of fruit & veg - something you just don't get at your local fruit & veg market!

  • M

    Mark .

    9 9 2016 22:04

    4       0


  • JL

    Jacob L.

    9 9 2016 21:24

    5       1

    Would be interested to hear from Alan whether his bullish view on the Danish currency applies to the currencies of Sweden and Norway as well or whether this is a uniquely Danish bet...

  • WM

    William M.

    9 9 2016 19:45

    6       0

    wow .. just wow .. this guy clearly knows his stuff

  • FC

    Fractal C.

    9 9 2016 18:54

    3       0

    This may be the interview which may get ZERO thumps down!

  • FC

    Fractal C.

    9 9 2016 15:23

    5       0

    One of the best!

  • HA

    Hamed A.

    9 9 2016 15:21

    11       1

    This was great - wish RV would do more interviews like this

  • SB

    S. B.

    9 9 2016 12:20

    2       4

    Are the WEAT and CORN ETF's usable for an individual investor or do they have too much contango? I don't know much about Futures. Should you buy calls on CORN or WEAT ETF's?

  • JS

    John S.

    9 9 2016 12:12

    9       0

    Fascinating discussion.

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    9 9 2016 11:08

    8       0

    Real Vision's timing per usual is excellent. A week ago my family was given an offer on our farm land in Colorado. Incredibly insightful video. Thanks!