Financial Markets in the Era of Trump – Understanding the Post Election Landscape

Featuring Raoul Pal, Julian Brigden, Pippa Malmgren, Marcus Ashworth, Paul Krake, Grant Williams

In the new era of a Trump Presidency, Central Banks will find themselves boxed into a corner like never before and can expect to be severely tested in a period of hyper volatility. With a potential trade war with Asia looming and questions arising about the impact of a major fiscal expansion, Real Vision TV assembled a group of leading experts to assess how financial markets will respond in the post US election landscape.

Published on
28 November, 2016
Topic
Macro, US Economy
Duration
55 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies
Rating
27

Comments

  • VS

    Vasil S.

    31 12 2017 04:32

    0       0

    Just watched this with the benefit of hindsight and Pippa has absolutely nailed it on almost (Russia excepted) every front! Very very impressive.

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    12 12 2016 21:12

    1       3

    Ho w is it possible these commenentators don't realise that inflation coming means a lower dollar and higher euro?

  • BM

    Barry M.

    7 12 2016 04:23

    4       2

    When looking to the next 4 years of a Trump Presidency, remember this, Trump is a successful businessman who sees people as customers that he needs on a daily basis and who has to deliver on his promises. Hillary and the rest are politicians who see people as votes that are needed once every 4 years and they are never expected to deliver on their promises, at least not by enlightened folk. Also, I have to add, I really enjoy Pippa Malmgrens way of thinking and her easily understood delivery, the whole thing was excellent, many thanks RV !

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    4 12 2016 17:45

    0       0

    Wow this was really great content! RV offers incredible value. Thanks a lot. I feel it is gonna be popcorn time in 2017 watching the markets evolve...

  • PD

    Philip D.

    2 12 2016 22:48

    1       0

    Just love the way Pippa thinks...I have been working on my thought pattern especially after reading her book Signals...taking small clues we see in our surroundings daily as clues to connect the dots.

    I might have a Pippa crush ;-)

  • CD

    Colin D.

    2 12 2016 09:00

    2       0

    Great content as ever helping me to form views. I would echo Stuart M and would like to see some comment on the implications for precious metals and related mining stocks. There has been a bullish tone for months about these and I know Raoul previously said we could see $ and gold rally together. With the level of debt, rising inflation and negative interest rates I assume gold could still prosper. RV views would be great.

  • fc

    frank c.

    30 11 2016 19:09

    2       0

    very happy with this presentation! I would love to have a view concerning central banking under Trump as he has people like Judy Shelton as advisor and I have seen presentations from her at Cato Institute.Today I saw this:Jim Grant plugs @judyshel for Fed governor on @CNBC this afternoon.
    Judy tweeted recently: "We could reduce taxes, reduce spending, reduce regulation, and institute sound money." referring to this articlehttp://www.nationalreview.com/article/441128/james-grant-monetary-manipulation-must-end

  • SM

    Stuart M.

    30 11 2016 11:13

    7       0

    Great job! Thanks!
    Would like to hear current views on gold, silver and miners, please.

  • JN

    Jack N.

    30 11 2016 05:03

    2       0

    Love this format and top down approach

  • RA

    Robert A.

    29 11 2016 22:24

    0       0

    RV of course darn that spell check!

  • RA

    Robert A.

    29 11 2016 22:23

    2       0

    As Stephanie Pomboy panamined Bernake handing the gavel to Yellen (while wearing her helicopter beanie)---"Good Luck Chick". Great job Milton, Raoul and Grant getting everyone set up on short notice to keep us abreast of developments. TV is an invaluable resource.

  • JM

    Jason M.

    29 11 2016 20:21

    3       0

    My question for Julian Brigden has to do with how risk parity managers implement their fixed income positioning. My understanding was that it was through swaptions / futures as opposed to physical bonds. I don't see how a mass deleveraging in these markets would have an impact on yields. Can anyone help me through this ?

  • JM

    James M.

    29 11 2016 19:09

    3       0

    I agree with Harry J who wishes there had been a few thoughts shared about how this effects Gold. Will the strong dollar crush gold next year? I personally have begun to hedge my various gold related investments.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    29 11 2016 19:08

    4       0

    Loved it! What a treat! Julian and Raoul are my favorite macro mavens and I think both are right regarding bonds, Julian short term and Raoul longer term. Gradual rate increase could be OK for stocks, sharp quick moves, not so much. Adios Janet! Ride off into the sunset.

  • WB

    Wes B.

    29 11 2016 17:29

    5       0

    It seems that higher rates and higher USD from here is quickly becoming consensus. It wouldn't surprise me too see these positions get shaken out before this becomes reality.

  • NH

    Neil H.

    29 11 2016 15:43

    1       0

    Neil H. best video yet. If the secular bear market in bonds has started, we should be prepared for the fallout from other asset classes.

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    29 11 2016 14:05

    4       0

    Great stuff! Was anxious for a while waiting to hear from the celebs and stars of RVTV on election topic! Enjoyed it!

  • KJ

    Kulbir J.

    29 11 2016 11:45

    2       0

    With the USD projected to increase in 2017. Will 2017 be the year that a few currencies pegged to the USD break the peg? Like Egypt and Nigeria did in 2016? Thinking of Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia in particular.

  • TA

    Thor A.

    29 11 2016 11:03

    9       2

    Everything is very muddled at the moment and the narrative is in the driver's seat, but I'm having some difficulty in seeing Trump as the great, new engine for growth and a resurgence of the US economy. If the structural problems in the US economy were that easy to overcome, surely they would have already done it? I know the politics behind it is as complex and frontal-cortex numbing as anything, but really? I don't know. I do think that the combination of business friendly policies and regressive social and environmental policies could have some toxic (no pun intended) repercussions down the line, by intent or not. Interesting and historic times but whether this turns out to be bad or good I'm rather more nervous and uncertain about. Thanks RV for remaining an objective source and giving us access to all these opinions from some very smart people, whether you agree with them or not.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    29 11 2016 06:56

    2       0

    @ANTHONY D: Yields and stock prices can both rise at the same time, and have done so several times in the recent past. I am not sure why there is the perception this is really impossible.

  • KA

    Kevin A.

    29 11 2016 05:29

    1       0

    USD Trend : and as our lovely Macro Maven taught us in her first interview, watch the Net USD trade in CoT data. As of Nov. 15 ( JPY +$0.79B , EUR -$17.55B , AUD +$3.45B , GBP -$7.34B , CAD -$2.42B = USD +$23.08B). Net Trade hit above $50B in 2013, and spent nearly 7 months above $50B in late 2014 early 2015. Room To Run! Where’s the Scooby Doo music? **numbers might not add up due to rounding

  • AD

    Anthony D.

    29 11 2016 03:56

    1       0

    Pippa, I understand how some sectors/stocks may go higher from here. But how does this market rise in the face of higher bond rates. The percent changes will be unlike any ever seen before.

  • DK

    Daniel K.

    29 11 2016 02:43

    7       0

    Ok who's the wise guy that down voted?

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    29 11 2016 02:32

    2       0

    Awesome, helps explain the voices in my head that are somewhat at odds. Best yet.

  • de

    dale e.

    29 11 2016 02:11

    1       0

    Excellent as always.

  • DS

    David S.

    29 11 2016 01:49

    0       0

    Re: Victor S. - The 100 year bond has not been offered or priced yet. At what interest rate would you buy a 100 year US bond? DLS

  • FB

    Fernando B.

    29 11 2016 00:00

    5       0

    Excellent format! One question to the best minds. It's very enlightening.
    Thank you

  • AG

    Alex G.

    28 11 2016 23:49

    13       1

    Yes ! Get the Russian macro wiz Alex Gurevich back !!

  • JS

    Jerry S.

    28 11 2016 23:28

    4       0

    Really enjoyed the different perspectives and love the graphs being displayed while the speaker is referring to what the data shows. Very helpful for the nerdy graph guys like me.

  • RB

    Rob B.

    28 11 2016 21:02

    3       0

    great summary of possible "what if's". My premise starts with what PEOTUS starting point does not reflect what his endpoint is. This is all just a negotiation in almost a transactional manner. I think this will scare the crap out of other CB and governments, but once this behavior is known, it will be less of a wild card and more of just the opening volley in a negotiation. But also don't underestimate the unorthodox approach.....it can be very effective as long as he is not distracted.

    Key points -flow of wealth into US dollar. I think this will happen, along with increasing inflation and higher CB induced volitility. I am sure not good for stock market, feels like Bond market bear in full bloom and my guess is higher Gold and Bitcoin. Time will tell

  • VS

    Victor S.

    28 11 2016 20:57

    4       0

    Grant et-al -no one is commenting on the Dave Rosenberg +Larry Summers strong comments of selling 100 year old bonds to the Fed at give away rates. In other words ,interest on the debt will not rise as much as expected on new debt.

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    28 11 2016 20:27

    7       0

    Thank you all for doing this very helpful and insightful piece. Very much appreciate RV doing in-depth pieces on significant evens that have the potential to move markets in diverse ways.

  • DS

    David S.

    28 11 2016 20:02

    11       3

    Re: Pippa: Interesting idea, but I do not believe that Trump or his advisers will trust the Chinese building a lot of infra-structure in the US. Although a lot of Chinese billionaires may be looking for investments, the government could easily block it. In addition, China has it own debt crisis and a lot of US treasuries at low interest rates they can sell. Just do not see Trump and China walking hand-in-hand. DLS

  • GC

    Gary C.

    28 11 2016 19:26

    4       0

    powerfull and disruptive technology.The investigative style is more expensive to produce as you send teams around the world, but less biased, and more honest and valuable for viewers

  • GC

    Gary C.

    28 11 2016 19:22

    9       0

    Agree with Richard and Daniel.
    The model for RV is branching toward an investigative journalism..without the writers salary dependant on pleasing the owners of the medial. This is a delightful, powerf

  • RP

    Raoul P.

    28 11 2016 19:04

    22       0

    George...I agree with you. I think its a temporary rise in yields. Demographics is another key reason. But this is each contributors view. They didnt ask me my bond views! ;-)

  • SB

    Sam B.

    28 11 2016 19:00

    44       1

    Please get Alex Gurevich back on to talk the long bond thesis. My personal take is that the "Trump-flation" narrative that's been spun since the election has several holes, namely: 1) Trump hasn't laid out any coherent program 2) even a semi-coherent program has little chance of being passed by Congress quickly, the Dems still have leverage 3) the debt ceiling will have to be renegotiated in March, delaying any legislation and shining additional light on the existing debt/deficit. 4) bond yields were already selling off pre-Trump, suggesting this was a natural pull-back coming off all-time low UST yields in July 5) We did fiscal stimulus in 2009-10. Didn't work. Japan has done it since 1990. Didn't work there either. Governments and central banks have tried to get growth and inflation for nearly a decade with no success. The fact that people are even somewhat seriously considering Trump's half-baked infrastructure stimulus "plan" to be the catalyst for global growth/reflation shows how desperate they've become.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    28 11 2016 18:47

    3       5

    Excellent views! Yellen will now be forced to raise rates than to keep playing the int. rate suppression game. DT is vile but he is putting America 1st. He will not care about what happens to Japan or Europe- they have boxed themselves in for too long as the US has. Yes, stronger $, weaker EM, weaker EU & Japanese economy. More political strife & upheaval. Would have liked to hear an update on US & European financials. Italian bail ins are in effect. The Italian pensioner who killed himself reminds me of Arab Spring. The energy loans pose a problem to all banks. I am disgusted with the back door bail-ins of US banks (QE to prop up banks) & the Feds providing them with the funds to buy back their own stock.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    28 11 2016 18:43

    19       0

    Best show yet.
    Only thing missing for me was a discussion re: gold
    Great job.
    Thank you RV

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    28 11 2016 18:14

    16       0

    Disagree with Spencers comment. Thought the fiscal spending piece was a gem. Never really saw it in that perspective Dr Pippa laid out. Thats what RVTV is about, provoking smart ideas, not necessarily pushing an agenda of who/what is right or wrong

  • RM

    Richard M.

    28 11 2016 17:51

    51       0

    Fantastic, fantastic, fantastic!!! I have really enjoyed the RVTV experience the past year or two with the type of interviews and knowledge spread throughout by the participants. But a "current" wrap-up of the really big events by a group of really bright, knowledgable people is something I had hoped you would start doing -and you have! Please do these "wrap ups" on a regular basis! Again, fantastic - keep up the great work!!!

  • DM

    Daniel M.

    28 11 2016 17:20

    4       0

    This is incredibly good! Well done gents!

  • SM

    Spencer M.

    28 11 2016 17:16

    11       3

    This is really great but could have been better if our speakers debated their contentious points against each other - e.g. US fiscal spending. I love RVTV as is but more expert critiquing of views would be very welcome.