Contrarian calls and macro opportunities

Published on
June 13th, 2018
Topic
Debt, Commodities, Europe, US Dollar
Duration
36 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities

Contrarian calls and macro opportunities

The Exchange ·
Featuring Tony Greer, Tommy Thornton, Dave Floyd

Published on: June 13th, 2018 • Duration: 36 minutes • Asset Class: Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities • Topic: Debt, Commodities, Europe, US Dollar

Three titans of the technical and trading world join Real Vision for an informal chat about which current market developments make them tick and what they think will be the best opportunities for the year. Tony Greer, Tommy Thornton and Dave Floyd talk tech, technicals, the dollar and debt, take a look at Europe, and pinpoint some contrarian ideas in the U.S. sector space. Filmed on June 1, 2018 in Grand Cayman.

Comments

  • NH
    Neil H.
    5 July 2018 @ 18:18
    Very engaging conversation. Keep more of it coming.
  • SC
    Sajad C.
    30 June 2018 @ 21:31
    Star cast. Would love to have known their views on Gold/ Bitcoin right now.......... next episode.
  • NN
    Niraj N.
    30 June 2018 @ 20:55
    Engaging format. Good work!
  • SS
    Sean S.
    29 June 2018 @ 15:20
    all that food
  • PB
    Pier B.
    22 June 2018 @ 18:15
    Very nice listening format which holds the attention
  • CF
    Cause F.
    21 June 2018 @ 06:10
    Great format. Very interesting
  • SH
    Sean H.
    21 June 2018 @ 04:49
    Great new format. The tripartite discussion provides for an interesting exchange of views and is a good variation to the 1:1 interviews on the platform. Keep up the innovation!
  • ml
    michael l.
    21 June 2018 @ 02:23
    Excellent new format (really like it). Would be ideal to have them back once a quarter or twice a year to continue the discussion - good give and take and flow between the three of them.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      24 June 2018 @ 16:41
      Michael - that is the goal....glad you and so many others got value from our dialog.
  • LA
    Linda A.
    19 June 2018 @ 17:38
    Love these guys -so nice & polite. Reminds me of when I was growing up - people conversed. Nowadays, people hide behind their computers wasting precious time on facebook etc. afraid to speak. Good ideas & cements some of my current trades. Looking forward to more "table talk".
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      24 June 2018 @ 16:42
      Linda....yes, people still crave discussion.....despite the insane technical distractions nowadays. In fact, I would argue that the pendulum is swinging back towards more connection....hopefully from there we can also start to have intellectual discourse and not shouting matches as is seen nearly everywhere nowadays.
  • DW
    Denton W.
    18 June 2018 @ 19:02
    This is great. Do more of these.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    18 June 2018 @ 17:23
    excellent forum!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • AE
    Alex E.
    18 June 2018 @ 03:46
    This was Greg Wheldon on speed! WOW! Well done, gentlemen! RVTV should have this trio on again and again!!! For traders, you couldn't pick a better venue for information and trade ideas. Congrats Raoul and company, well done!!!
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      26 June 2018 @ 13:51
      I can't even begin to imagine Greg Weldon on speed... :)
  • WM
    Will M.
    17 June 2018 @ 18:07
    Excellent conversation with good back and forth on reasoning and justification. These are smart professional guys and I can learn from their views. Great stuff!
  • CB
    C B.
    17 June 2018 @ 14:41
    It was interesting to hear, “indexing has done jack shit”. VTSAX is up 5.75% as of the video release. That shows how traders think about price return and not total return
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      24 June 2018 @ 16:47
      CB....despite all the back and forth in extreme periods of volatility the S&P's are still only up just over 2%. My comment was directed at the notion that markets levitate year in and year out....they don't. 2018 is likely the year where indexing falls short. There are simply too many accounts chasing the same handful of stocks for it to last forever.
  • JN
    Jill N.
    17 June 2018 @ 10:33
    Love the Roundtable interaction, more of this format please 👌
  • GO
    Gary O.
    17 June 2018 @ 06:53
    Great mix of minds. The conversation opens the idea flow. I really like it. Thank you again Real Vision!
  • RS
    Ranjit S.
    16 June 2018 @ 22:58
    I wish it was more insightful. Found it to be a high level conversation
  • JC
    Justin C.
    16 June 2018 @ 22:51
    Brilliant. I think this is the first time I have listened to a RVTV podcast 4 times. I just love this unfettered type of discussion. Really helpful.
  • JG
    John G.
    16 June 2018 @ 20:57
    I really like this format because I get multiple points of view, both from a fundamental and a technical basis.
  • TB
    Tad B.
    16 June 2018 @ 15:44
    That was very, very good. Really enjoyed it. More of those please :)
  • PL
    Peter L.
    16 June 2018 @ 15:01
    LOVED this format of discussion where experts in their field hash idea out, play devil's advocate and test assumptions. THIS type of analysis in my humble opinion is the most valuable thing that RV TV provides. Would be even more interesting to see this conversation happening at a real bar!
  • SA
    Scott A.
    15 June 2018 @ 19:00
    This is core RV stuff. Great format, great discussion.
  • SA
    Scott A.
    15 June 2018 @ 19:00
    This is core RV stuff. Great format, great discussion.
  • HY
    Hiroyuki Y.
    15 June 2018 @ 16:41
    This was great! The format works. I'm looking forward to the next one.
  • KA
    Konstantine A.
    15 June 2018 @ 12:25
    Great. Keep on. It would be good if you added all the mentioned instruments in the description.
    • VK
      Viresh K.
      15 June 2018 @ 20:15
      Transcript
  • BM
    Brett M.
    15 June 2018 @ 04:13
    I think this was a great type of content. I think it would be even better with higher caliber macro perspectives at the table. But the style and focal emphasis was very promising for this service.
  • ME
    Mattias E.
    15 June 2018 @ 02:54
    Great info in a conversational setting. Great idea! Loads of ideas and insights. looking forward to the next meet.
  • KE
    Kathryn E.
    15 June 2018 @ 02:27
    Great job guys! Amazing discussion and the length and format was perfect.
  • MK
    Mike K.
    15 June 2018 @ 02:17
    Best one yet! Bravo.
  • LT
    Lucas T.
    14 June 2018 @ 23:58
    I have not heard much about Demark signals. What is the general consensus about it among professionals? Where does it lie in terms of subjectivity and reliability between say Head and shoulder patterns and Gann
  • TT
    Thomas T.
    14 June 2018 @ 21:12
    For everyone concerned about the food on the table. Tony, Dave, and I did a second video where we did eat and drink! But I do think at a good bar or restaurant would be a better choice too.
  • MM
    Mak M.
    14 June 2018 @ 20:57
    I liked this video very much.Please make more like this one.Thanks
  • JD
    John D.
    14 June 2018 @ 18:24
    Length of time perfect. Great participants. Easy to understand concepts.bravo ! Not sure what a "demark" is turning point ? supply/demand ?
    • TT
      Thomas T.
      14 June 2018 @ 21:10
      John - reach out to me at info@hedgefundtelemetry.com and I will send you our DeMark Indicator Primer. It will give you the basics
  • JC
    John C.
    14 June 2018 @ 18:22
    Loved it! Since it's in the Caymans would suggest maybe doing it at a bar on the beach and encourage the speakers to have a beer and/or eat a little? Tony was the only guy who ate anything!
  • CS
    Charles S.
    14 June 2018 @ 15:50
    That chat worked well, really informative for traders.
  • PR
    Peter R.
    14 June 2018 @ 12:12
    Really like this format. Adding a third perspective is really valuable. In future ones, have perspectives that are more at odds would be interesting. Content was great as always. Would love to see more of TG. As always, DF and TT are great too. Some stylistic suggestions(these are very minor and not important to the value, but per Raoul's request, just wanted to provide any feedback I had): - Similar to other comments, either ditch the food or encourage the guests to eat it during the conversations. This might make it a little more natural instead of two of them looking at and nodding as the other one talks. I know it is awkward enough to talk on camera, let alone eat, but we will cut you guys a break if you have food in your teeth! - The room was a little sterile. All white, very bright, nothing interesting. Skin in the game had a really cool setting, it would be awesome if these format found a really cool restaurant or location to do it at. (like I said, not super important at all, would not make or break me watching, nothing needs to change to continue to add value, but this could add something) Great stuff here!
  • GS
    Gordon S.
    14 June 2018 @ 11:35
    Now get people with hight conviction opposing view on a specific topic (yes I'm thinking of Kyle Bass on China for one of the participants) and let the magic happen. This episode was a great start! Finally something I feel really excited about again on RV!
  • AF
    Andrew F.
    14 June 2018 @ 10:34
    hi Another great feature. Thx. Makes me feel like I'm heading in the right direction....I think.
  • EV
    Eddy V.
    14 June 2018 @ 10:27
    Very interesting conversation guys, but do not forget to eat the nice stuff that you had put on the table!
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    14 June 2018 @ 09:53
    Enjoyed the format and content. Good that each does a summary at the end as the discussion is wide-ranging. Suggest not to have this longer than 30 minutes. That tends to become more like the longer interviews then. The food is a distraction in this format - drinks/coffee should be fine enough. Will continue to watch
  • JA
    James A.
    14 June 2018 @ 08:08
    Great viewing. Would be more interesting if the 'titans' could enjoy a few beverages and get a bit loose lipped for us viewers!
  • DO
    Daryl O.
    14 June 2018 @ 07:28
    Great format. 3 is probably the right no. of people - keeps it rolling. And they were a great 3 to kick this off with. 30 mins is good but 45 wouldn't have been a problem. Thought the moderating was good but could be just a tad tighter on getting questions answered quickly/succinctly from all 3 around the table before then go down the rabbit holes of exploring them in more detail. Overall a great addition to RV.
  • BF
    Bret F.
    14 June 2018 @ 06:45
    Wow! Phenomenal discussion!
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    14 June 2018 @ 06:16
    The format is highly enjoyable and covers a lot of ground from different angles. Thank you
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    14 June 2018 @ 05:47
    Wow! Phenomenal discussion! Tony has been spot on on the oil play and I think he’s probably right about the sector over next 6 months. Tommy’s staples idea is brilliant! Dave’s insights on the Right labor markets in construction and the remodeling bit was super insightful. Not ready to take the plunge on shorting the 10 year treasuries tho.👍😀👏👏👏👏
    • LC
      Liliana C.
      14 June 2018 @ 05:47
      I meant tight labor market in construction
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    14 June 2018 @ 05:38
    ...enjoyed this one, and great to see a new format coming online.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    14 June 2018 @ 05:37
    ...the markets, we aren’t really investing, we are “trading” for income or making bets on different potential outcomes. Would like to see discussion with more of an investment focus. Nonetheless, enjp
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    14 June 2018 @ 05:36
    Like the new format, but more of a trader conversation and less of an investment one. Also, level of analysis here did not go as deep as I had hoped - the operative word here is “play.” When we “play”
  • TP
    Trevor P.
    14 June 2018 @ 04:44
    This is great! I love this format. Would really like to hear more from Tommy Thornton.
  • TH
    Takeshi H.
    14 June 2018 @ 04:21
    Awesome information
  • YB
    Yuriy B.
    14 June 2018 @ 03:49
    Fantastic!
  • RK
    Ryan K.
    14 June 2018 @ 03:13
    Love the new format.
  • CM
    C M.
    14 June 2018 @ 02:48
    Enjoyed this conversation. Useful to traders and longer term investors. Great to hear these guys talk out their positions. Helps to get inside their heads. Look forward to seeing this continue.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    14 June 2018 @ 02:40
    Love it. This series is a winner.
  • JB
    Juan B.
    14 June 2018 @ 00:51
    Thanks! The Exchange is a valuable new initiative. Please add the PDF download to this episode and include PDF downloads to future episodes. PDF downloads are useful as notes can be made on the transcript for study-purposes.
  • MR
    Mathew R.
    14 June 2018 @ 00:37
    Awesome format and a great segment
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    14 June 2018 @ 00:07
    Loved it! Looking forward to more!
  • SC
    Sean C.
    13 June 2018 @ 22:51
    You got to have this format with J.C. Parets because I would love to hear his bullish scenario clash with other's more sideways/bearish case.
  • F
    Floyd .
    13 June 2018 @ 22:28
    Liked it.people that have REAL money on the line. combination of very short term traders and longer term investors good.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      13 June 2018 @ 22:52
      Indeed I/we do....that is a game changer in terms of how analysis and forecasts are disseminated going forward. Takes stones to put your neck on the line each time the camera is rolling.
  • MD
    Michael D.
    13 June 2018 @ 22:14
    Love the new format. Excellent job as always RV. Take it to 11.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    13 June 2018 @ 22:01
    Great format, smart people, interesting topics, the right length….what’s not to like about this… Plus, ease in front of the camera by the speakers and natural interaction made this not just educational but very enjoyable to watch. Thanks RV and thanks to the three smart people in the room.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      13 June 2018 @ 22:23
      Chris....your kind words are greatly appreciated. The team at RV do great work....as you can see....they make all 3 of us look really good....brought us cold beer and good food too!
  • MC
    Mike C.
    13 June 2018 @ 21:34
    Love the format. Great discussion and content.
  • ML
    M L.
    13 June 2018 @ 21:32
    In discussion about sideways equities, no mention of the impact of cash repatriation, buybacks, US QT. It's a good discussion, but this is more trader talk than pure macro. No "why" questions answered.
  • CS
    Chuck S.
    13 June 2018 @ 21:18
    Brilliant new series! Great job on the premiere show. Can’t wait to see future matchups.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    13 June 2018 @ 21:17
    very, very cool!!!!
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    13 June 2018 @ 20:28
    finally! great format. I reckon that the format would allow 30min and 60 min discussions, the 60 min ones going really deep into a topic such as ruptures in the offshore dollar market with J Snider et al. or two opposing views such as Jeff Gundlach and Dr Lacy Hunt. But i immediately like and appreciate the format, keep it up and coming. tks!
  • BH
    Brian H.
    13 June 2018 @ 20:23
    Winning content! Hope it becomes a regular format.
  • tW
    tgwtom W.
    13 June 2018 @ 20:20
    A natural progression. I'm a fan.
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    13 June 2018 @ 20:04
    he says value in energy... i say value in uranium depressed sector waking up ( 3 million times the energy density of crude oil)
  • DC
    David C.
    13 June 2018 @ 19:37
    This format is amazing. This is why I come to RV. More please.
  • DY
    Donny Y.
    13 June 2018 @ 19:33
    Great macro discussion. Love the setting!
  • GP
    Gero P.
    13 June 2018 @ 19:26
    Awesome. Thank you
  • IH
    Iain H.
    13 June 2018 @ 19:05
    Fantastic. For me, this what makes Real Vision, experienced active traders/investors talking about what they believe and what they are doing, not to a script. Looking forward to episode two. Cheers
  • JM
    John M.
    13 June 2018 @ 19:02
    I love the format and I can’t wait to see more.
  • MM
    Mike M.
    13 June 2018 @ 19:01
    Like the format. Hope you will make it part of your programming going forward. Best regards, Mike
  • MK
    Michael K.
    13 June 2018 @ 18:39
    top notch content, presumably slightly compatible for RV's efforts to broaden the 'slickness' of the thing to be more mass marketable, but the content is straight up deep informed strategist. Thank you much.
  • IO
    Igor O.
    13 June 2018 @ 18:18
    Love it! Make table round and ditch the food.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    13 June 2018 @ 18:16
    Good. Trade the food prop and kitchen table for scotch on leather coasters around a round table and leather chairs. Tony is a solid interview everytime. You should invite him to cayman on the house if he does some work for you while he is there.
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    13 June 2018 @ 17:29
    Good format. But guysss….why no comments on the PMs?? If you want beaten down, hated & unloved you should be all over gold. Otherwise though, it was an enjoyable 30 minutes.
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      13 June 2018 @ 17:50
      Speaking for myself.....in terms of gold/PM's - there is no catalyst to justify being long at this point. Something being cheap is simply not enough for me - it can often become cheaper.
  • BC
    Brente C.
    13 June 2018 @ 17:24
    The open, multi-person, multi-topic conversational format definitely resonates with me. Great stuff.
  • SH
    Syed H.
    13 June 2018 @ 17:23
    This is great. Keep it up.
  • JL
    Johnny L.
    13 June 2018 @ 17:18
    If CNBC or Bloomberg had programs like this one I'd watch them. Fantastic program.
    • JL
      Johnny L.
      13 June 2018 @ 17:24
      On the housing debate for high end and the wealthy WS types per Tonmy's experience, MS just guided down Q2 on a sharp drop in rev from its wealth management division. Many more dots to connect.
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    13 June 2018 @ 17:14
    Great insight, really enjoyed the format - the food looked great too!
  • MD
    Mark D.
    13 June 2018 @ 17:12
    Great format looking forward to the next one
  • CB
    Charles B.
    13 June 2018 @ 17:10
    Top rate. Thanks. Keep it up.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    13 June 2018 @ 17:02
    Love it! Vintage RV core stuff here. Timely (I agree the sooner out the better—but got to get it right) civilized discussions between 3 knowledgeable and credentialed guests on topics that are current and of interest. I like the fact that one guest kind of wears the “moderator” hat (in this case Tommy) and cues up the topics, makes sure to include everyone’s input on each topic and moves on when in his/her opinion the discussion is exhausted and keeps it from becoming too repetitive.....IMO, this is harder than it looks and again, IMO, Tommy is a Master at this. I think the 30 min format plus or minus is perfect for this round table type of discussion as just the right amount of topics can be explored (always leave the Audience wanting more). Don’t forget to get some of the great RV females involved too...Stephanie Pomboy and Juliette just to name a couple. Not only are there some trade ideas sprinkled in, but more importantly we get to hear the other guests pros/cons/agreement/push back on them as well which we don’t get in the Trader Videos. I REALLY like this new format!
  • SH
    Steve H.
    13 June 2018 @ 16:57
    Good format, excellent conversation.
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    13 June 2018 @ 16:55
    Love the format. Tommy and the turnaround time could be improved
  • RS
    Ronan S.
    13 June 2018 @ 16:49
    loved it!
  • SB
    Simon B.
    13 June 2018 @ 16:37
    Excellent. I requested a panel debate from the beginning and I love this type of format. Very illuminating. It seems to cover a lot of subjects, getting to the essence of each one. Looking forward to many more in variations of this style.
  • DA
    Domenico A.
    13 June 2018 @ 16:17
    enjoyed this. i think these type of panels are great . other ideas would be 10Y Treasury bulls vs bears - have some respected folks on both sides articulate their expectations . So Gross vs Lacy Hunt..or Central bank balance sheets – is it the stock vs flow that is important? Perhaps something topical like- World cups and major sporting events – a blessing or a curse for the host nation
  • KS
    Kevin S.
    13 June 2018 @ 16:05
    I really enjoy this format. It's great to see actual investors discuss their points of view and give insight into how they think. This is the type of content that makes my subscription more than worthwhile.
  • TB
    Taylor B.
    13 June 2018 @ 15:32
    This is the type of semi-casual/semi-structured conversational flow I enjoyed having with smarter people than myself during my days in the business. Adding a third member to the discussion seems to produce a more natural give and take than the direct Q&A format of 1x1 interviews, imo. Keep 'em coming.
  • DT
    Dan T.
    13 June 2018 @ 15:12
    Enjoyed the format and exchange dialogue.
  • WB
    Wes B.
    13 June 2018 @ 15:02
    Nice job guys. DF, any update to view on softs? Wheat still looks ok but Corn and particularly Beans (which you I know didn't mention) have gotten hit pretty hard last few days. Thanks
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      13 June 2018 @ 17:04
      Yeah....softs have been tough lately....I am still long wheat and corn.....trying to be patient.
    • WB
      Wes B.
      15 June 2018 @ 12:37
      Firesale liquidation on this tariff news now. Jeez
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    13 June 2018 @ 14:59
    Yep, awesome new series but please guys but as already mentioned, let's be more timely. Don't worry about editing so much, LOL! NICE!
  • KT
    Ken T.
    13 June 2018 @ 14:58
    Excellent combination of short term technicals with medium term macro thoughts. A very good addition to the service.
  • NG
    Nick G.
    13 June 2018 @ 14:15
    No one touched the food. What's up with that?
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      13 June 2018 @ 17:03
      We were all camera shy, no food in teeth etc etc.....trust me it got eaten....and more beverages were consumed as the evening wore on.
    • SF
      Simon F.
      13 June 2018 @ 17:56
      yup the food just looked like props - try putting everyone in comfortable chairs with a glass of something only. the content is interesting enough to not need props
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    13 June 2018 @ 13:19
    Compulsive viewing with some great insights and trading tips from these three gentlemen. I loved the format, and look forward to more of these in the future!
  • RM
    Richard M.
    13 June 2018 @ 13:07
    Milton, I really like the concept of this new series (The Exchange) and I think it will be well received. This 1st episode was a great start and I look forward to future shows. Great coverage of various topics and trade ideas - this is what a lot of people here have been asking for so I think you will get a lot of positive feedback on this. I could easily see these segments going to a hour long session and would like to try that as 30 minutes almost seemed to short! Anyway, great stuff and keep up the good work.
  • tt
    tim t.
    13 June 2018 @ 13:01
    Great stuff, really worthwhile!
  • BV
    Brad V.
    13 June 2018 @ 12:33
    Enjoyed the new approach with three top traders exploring key themes and providing great insight into further research. Clearly a lot of information packed into this video that will either, reassure you have been looking at some important trends or it will steer you in a direction where opportunities lay. Great work....
  • RA
    Richard A.
    13 June 2018 @ 12:19
    Love the concept and this iteration.
  • VV
    Vanessa V.
    13 June 2018 @ 12:11
    Big thumbs up from me! Enjoyed the discussion and the rationale for ideas. Thank you Dave, Tony and Tommy.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    13 June 2018 @ 11:58
    Those glasses are inappropriate for beers!
    • DF
      Dave F. | Contributor
      13 June 2018 @ 17:03
      Peter....please let us know the proper glassware....we want to make sure we are dialed in for next time
    • TT
      Thomas T.
      13 June 2018 @ 17:37
      I would have been fine drinking Red Stripe out of the bottle.
  • GA
    Guy A.
    13 June 2018 @ 11:52
    Great piece. Only problem is the turnaround time. They speak often of “the next few weeks” but this was filmed two weeks ago. Would be great to get these timely pieces out a little quicker. But great content!
    • TT
      Thomas T.
      13 June 2018 @ 17:35
      I would agree with the turnaround time although I know it takes time to edit 8 hours of footage. Just kidding!! I've recently suggested a Real Vision live show and maybe one day that will happen. Real Vision is doing so much right now and exploding with popularity. Very proud to be a contributor. By the way... boring old consumer staples has been the best US sector since we filmed this piece.
  • VS
    Vasil S.
    13 June 2018 @ 11:28
    Would have preferred deeper focus / discussion on one or two asset classes but that's just personal preference. Very good!
  • OS
    Oliver S.
    13 June 2018 @ 11:12
    A great addition to the RV platform.
  • ZP
    Zachary P.
    13 June 2018 @ 11:08
    Great video here.
  • JT
    Jarl T.
    13 June 2018 @ 10:29
    I loved it! Brilliant stuff.

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