Daniel Want – Think Piece

Featuring Daniel Want

Daniel Want, CIO of Prerequisite Capital Management, examines how central bank actions to avoid ‘Fisher Debt Deflation’ are ironically exacerbating it, looks into recent movements in liquidity and velocity of money to gain insight into the pricing mechanisms of currencies, and explains why the recent spike in gold is a bull trap, and how the inverse correlation to the USD will continue.

Published on
20 May, 2016
Topic
Gold, Global Outlook, US Dollar
Duration
59 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Commodities, Currencies
Rating
49

Comments

  • HK

    H K.

    26 5 2017 04:25

    0       0

    This is brilliant! Thank you team at Realvision.

  • jg

    james g.

    11 9 2016 05:26

    3       0

    Viewing Daniel's presentation in September, he may have been more prescient in terms of gold and equities than he initially appeared when first uploaded.
    USD headed to another Plaza Accord in 2-years time?
    Another RV 'Keeper'

  • ML

    Michael L.

    5 9 2016 22:24

    1       0

    Well reasoned presentation. Though my view of PMs are different. I understand how the dollar could be the goto currency when things go wrong. But, negative interest rates are the best argument for owing PMS, and it seems Fed Vice chair Fisher is leaning that way. So I will stick with my PMs.

  • mm

    mark m.

    23 6 2016 01:59

    1       0

    long live Harry Browne.

  • KA

    Kelly A.

    5 6 2016 17:39

    6       0

    I luv Daniel's pace and "tangents" --and his big picture view, combined with his historical perspective. Thoughts on dollar, gold, etc are so insightful.

  • lD

    lance D.

    4 6 2016 23:02

    1       0

    That is a brilliant interview , i now feel (TRT) 'The Realvision Team' have just created a challenge for themselves - To better this DW interview - TRT you got your work cut out to better this LOL . I'm holding fingers you do it .

  • PP

    Preston P.

    31 5 2016 04:17

    8       0

    This was an amazing interview. This guys is seriously talented and needs to come back on RV!

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    29 5 2016 14:15

    12       0

    I get the impression that DW is someone who thinks a lot and favours working things out for himself. His ideas were not econ textbook. i value this. please keep these type of speakers coming to RV.

  • JA

    J A.

    27 5 2016 15:19

    0       0

    2) Using PCM's metrics, why was velocity increasing in UK, Euroland, Japan and China in height of 2008 crisis?? (opposite of Henderson's et al)

  • JA

    J A.

    27 5 2016 15:14

    0       0

    Two questions;
    1) Why do PCM's liquidity metrics come to the opposite conclusion of folks like Henderson's (http://moneymovesmarkets.com/) despite using very similar framework.

  • EK

    Emil K.

    26 5 2016 21:02

    5       1

    I would like to spend one month's worth of "thumbs up" votes on this presentation. Not fair I can only give one positive thumbs up.

  • MH

    Marco H.

    23 5 2016 15:03

    11       0

    One of the best I have seen this past year (top 5) I may have a slight different view on PM mining sector but he gives a lot to think about. Concrete information, factual. Very good! Thanks!

  • PL

    Peter L.

    23 5 2016 13:16

    5       16

    this guy has no idea

  • BY

    Brian Y.

    23 5 2016 08:41

    3       6

    Presentation sounds nice but his portfolio is underweight precious metals? Really??? I took a different view and went overweight gold/silver miners in January and tripled my investment in 4 months.

  • JS

    John S.

    23 5 2016 05:35

    13       0

    Brilliant presentation that really challenges my thinking. Need to watch again and really digest. Please bring this guy back.
    BTW all the charts are on Prerequisite Capital website for download.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    23 5 2016 04:57

    6       0

    VG presentation. Provides lots of food for thought. I haven't decided what to conclude from some of the material. I like that, as I'm outside my comfort zone and testing some of my assumptions 5 stars

  • SP

    Steve P.

    23 5 2016 00:03

    4       0

    Superb macroeconomics 101 lesson.Put context round core monetary and economic drivers . Can argue gold assumptions as sentiment is often an unknown factor

  • hw

    howard w.

    22 5 2016 20:15

    3       0

    Very well reasoned but without analysis of the basic assumptions. I don't see how you can take away from your gold graph what you do. Assumption about what creates confidence may be totally wrong.

  • bh

    bjorn h.

    22 5 2016 13:26

    0       0

    Like to here in next interview beyond the deflationary no money velocity argument why he is bearish equities next 1 to 3 years.

  • tw

    tam w.

    22 5 2016 08:30

    3       0

    The most intellectually bearish argument to date. Six months or two years ? mmmm. The time to prepare is when you can, too late when you need to. Well done. Can't ague with much ( not smart enough )

  • DG

    Dendy G.

    22 5 2016 06:42

    4       0

    super awesome interview. Articulate the points so very well in almost very layman terms. Definitely top 3 of all interviews done by RV

  • gp

    gs p.

    21 5 2016 22:38

    4       0

    I find your video player controls to be difficult to maneuver. Am I missing something here? Cheers.

  • MN

    MIMI N.

    21 5 2016 22:03

    3       0

    Very interesting please have him on again.

  • TH

    Timothy H.

    21 5 2016 19:33

    4       0

    Would have loved to hear his thoughts on Bitcoin... With the halving immanent, I wonder if this is one of the only assets besides US$ and treasuries that will perform well in the medium term.

  • CT

    Claudia T.

    21 5 2016 19:19

    2       0

    Wow! Absolutely fantastic!!! Please bring him back!

  • EM

    Enrico M.

    21 5 2016 18:01

    4       0

    Fantastic piece! But government taxation is not the main factor when defining currency / money. Ask Brazilians as myself what currency we wanted when we knew a big devaluation would come.

  • S

    Soren .

    21 5 2016 17:54

    0       0

    Really clear and concise. I learned alot, however seems from his own graphs that the velocity effect on gold is delayed and diminished compared with the real rates effects. Hence "simplified".

  • TH

    Tom H.

    21 5 2016 15:12

    3       0

    I hope RealVision is providing this material to universities. RV, wonderful programming.

  • g

    george .

    21 5 2016 13:46

    3       0

    the problem i see is with world debt. i prefer to own silver and cash, and shorting gold and the sp500 vs both. it is a weather market. a northern hemisphere drought clouds the issue. silver USLV & $

  • PH

    Philip H.

    21 5 2016 13:21

    10       0

    Daniel clearly has a very big brain. I feel my own IQ going up in sympathy. This is worthy of its own PhD dissertation!😎

  • WK

    William K.

    21 5 2016 13:14

    1       0

    Agree with long dollar view and recent commodity rally is "transitory". The presentation of system wide liquidity was useful, but are we seeing a new paradigm?

  • NT

    Norman T.

    21 5 2016 12:41

    4       0

    Great to see Daniel speaking about low rates for savers as the problem, as I've been banging on about this for, literally, years! (at about 26 minutes in, passim)
    Nice contextual thinking.

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    21 5 2016 11:13

    1       0

    Great interview, first person who has really focused explicitly on volatility in a significant way. Definite watch again. Not wholly convinced re argument on Gold.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    21 5 2016 10:59

    6       0

    Best Interview so far. Great Risk Management Framework, helped me a lot.

  • am

    alex m.

    21 5 2016 09:54

    11       0

    Just brilliant, best RV interview on Macro economics. Refreshing honest approach, will have to bring Daniel back for an update in six months .

  • CG

    Colin G.

    21 5 2016 09:01

    8       0

    Bloody brilliant! Macro on steroids. My co-favourite analyst so far, along with Julian Brigden. Thanks RV for revealing these minds to the rest of us. Clarity in an unclear world.

  • KD

    Ken D.

    21 5 2016 01:35

    17       0

    Wonderful presentation. I hope you have him back again in six months for an update.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    21 5 2016 00:48

    8       0

    Top 5% of all RV and the 2'd top 5% in weeks from "down under". Who Knew? Again, this one was more than worth the value of my RV subscription!
    Harry Browne is back!

  • WE

    William E.

    20 5 2016 22:45

    8       0

    Great presentation - Yes, he could have been bit more concise (think MI2 Partners & Julian Briggen) but this was a very cogent discussion of what I believe "IS" happening; get ready!

  • JT

    Jake T.

    20 5 2016 22:35

    14       0

    This is nowhere near the most captivating presentation on RV TV, but Mr. Want does a phenomenal job of presenting the macro view. Deep thinking, brilliant guy who seems to understand the big picture.

  • DS

    David S.

    20 5 2016 21:22

    1       2

    The US dollar is the reserved currency by default. The moment investors believe that something else has less risk and more promise they will sell US dollars and buy ??

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    20 5 2016 20:07

    7       0

    One very thoughtful guy.

    I'm very much a believer in real money. Yet, suspect he's right that a deflationary bust ... until countered with helicopter $ ... will hurt AU/AG and commodities.

  • BV

    Bryan V.

    20 5 2016 19:34

    12       0

    Excellent discussion on the factors that drive determination of value in a free float currency regime. Have struggled with the concept of valuing assets in a unit that has no real value.

  • GB

    Grant B.

    20 5 2016 16:42

    5       18

    This was slow. Interesting view, but succinctness is not his strength. Gold stocks have generated alpha of +100%-300% the last 4 months. I will take a that kind of counter trend rally anytime.

  • IZ

    Ileana Z.

    20 5 2016 16:10

    16       0

    Excellent, detailed presentation. I will watch it again and be taking notes!

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    20 5 2016 15:16

    19       1

    I'll be watching this video again. Agree underweight glod position. Deflationary shock ie Yuan deval would actually be very bearish for gold as capital flows into $ combined with mass liquidations

  • JD

    John D.

    20 5 2016 14:45

    60       4

    Daniel Want's presentation is perhaps the very best RealVision presentation I've seen anywhere on macro environment. Liquidity -- a combination of money supply and velocity, a key parameter to watch.