Daniel Want – Think Piece

Published on
May 20th, 2016
Duration
59 minutes

Daniel Want – Think Piece

Think Piece ·
Featuring Daniel Want

Published on: May 20th, 2016 • Duration: 59 minutes

Daniel Want, CIO of Prerequisite Capital Management, examines how central bank actions to avoid 'Fisher Debt Deflation' are ironically exacerbating it, looks into recent movements in liquidity and velocity of money to gain insight into the pricing mechanisms of currencies, and explains why the recent spike in gold is a bull trap, and how the inverse correlation to the USD will continue.

Comments

  • my
    markettaker y.
    27 September 2018 @ 01:09
    Milton, can we get this guy on RV annually please?
  • HK
    H K.
    26 May 2017 @ 04:25
    This is brilliant! Thank you team at Realvision.
  • jg
    james g.
    11 September 2016 @ 05:26
    Viewing Daniel's presentation in September, he may have been more prescient in terms of gold and equities than he initially appeared when first uploaded. USD headed to another Plaza Accord in 2-years time? Another RV 'Keeper'
  • ML
    Michael L.
    5 September 2016 @ 22:24
    Well reasoned presentation. Though my view of PMs are different. I understand how the dollar could be the goto currency when things go wrong. But, negative interest rates are the best argument for owing PMS, and it seems Fed Vice chair Fisher is leaning that way. So I will stick with my PMs.
  • mm
    mark m.
    23 June 2016 @ 01:59
    long live Harry Browne.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    5 June 2016 @ 17:39
    I luv Daniel's pace and "tangents" --and his big picture view, combined with his historical perspective. Thoughts on dollar, gold, etc are so insightful.
  • lD
    lance D.
    4 June 2016 @ 23:02
    That is a brilliant interview , i now feel (TRT) 'The Realvision Team' have just created a challenge for themselves - To better this DW interview - TRT you got your work cut out to better this LOL . I'm holding fingers you do it .
  • PP
    Preston P.
    31 May 2016 @ 04:17
    This was an amazing interview. This guys is seriously talented and needs to come back on RV!
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    29 May 2016 @ 14:15
    I get the impression that DW is someone who thinks a lot and favours working things out for himself. His ideas were not econ textbook. i value this. please keep these type of speakers coming to RV.
  • JA
    J A.
    27 May 2016 @ 15:19
    2) Using PCM's metrics, why was velocity increasing in UK, Euroland, Japan and China in height of 2008 crisis?? (opposite of Henderson's et al)
  • JA
    J A.
    27 May 2016 @ 15:14
    Two questions; 1) Why do PCM's liquidity metrics come to the opposite conclusion of folks like Henderson's (http://moneymovesmarkets.com/) despite using very similar framework.
  • EK
    Emil K.
    26 May 2016 @ 21:02
    I would like to spend one month's worth of "thumbs up" votes on this presentation. Not fair I can only give one positive thumbs up.
  • MH
    Marco H.
    23 May 2016 @ 15:03
    One of the best I have seen this past year (top 5) I may have a slight different view on PM mining sector but he gives a lot to think about. Concrete information, factual. Very good! Thanks!
  • PL
    Peter L.
    23 May 2016 @ 13:16
    this guy has no idea
  • BY
    Brian Y.
    23 May 2016 @ 08:41
    Presentation sounds nice but his portfolio is underweight precious metals? Really??? I took a different view and went overweight gold/silver miners in January and tripled my investment in 4 months.
  • JS
    John S.
    23 May 2016 @ 05:35
    Brilliant presentation that really challenges my thinking. Need to watch again and really digest. Please bring this guy back. BTW all the charts are on Prerequisite Capital website for download.
  • DH
    Dale H.
    23 May 2016 @ 04:57
    VG presentation. Provides lots of food for thought. I haven't decided what to conclude from some of the material. I like that, as I'm outside my comfort zone and testing some of my assumptions 5 stars
  • SP
    Steve P.
    23 May 2016 @ 00:03
    Superb macroeconomics 101 lesson.Put context round core monetary and economic drivers . Can argue gold assumptions as sentiment is often an unknown factor
  • hw
    howard w.
    22 May 2016 @ 20:15
    Very well reasoned but without analysis of the basic assumptions. I don't see how you can take away from your gold graph what you do. Assumption about what creates confidence may be totally wrong.
  • bh
    bjorn h.
    22 May 2016 @ 13:26
    Like to here in next interview beyond the deflationary no money velocity argument why he is bearish equities next 1 to 3 years.
  • tw
    tam w.
    22 May 2016 @ 08:30
    The most intellectually bearish argument to date. Six months or two years ? mmmm. The time to prepare is when you can, too late when you need to. Well done. Can't ague with much ( not smart enough )
  • DG
    Dendy G.
    22 May 2016 @ 06:42
    super awesome interview. Articulate the points so very well in almost very layman terms. Definitely top 3 of all interviews done by RV
  • gp
    gs p.
    21 May 2016 @ 22:38
    I find your video player controls to be difficult to maneuver. Am I missing something here? Cheers.
  • MN
    MIMI N.
    21 May 2016 @ 22:03
    Very interesting please have him on again.
  • TH
    Timothy H.
    21 May 2016 @ 19:33
    Would have loved to hear his thoughts on Bitcoin... With the halving immanent, I wonder if this is one of the only assets besides US$ and treasuries that will perform well in the medium term.
  • CT
    Claudia T.
    21 May 2016 @ 19:19
    Wow! Absolutely fantastic!!! Please bring him back!
  • EM
    Enrico M.
    21 May 2016 @ 18:01
    Fantastic piece! But government taxation is not the main factor when defining currency / money. Ask Brazilians as myself what currency we wanted when we knew a big devaluation would come.
  • S
    Soren .
    21 May 2016 @ 17:54
    Really clear and concise. I learned alot, however seems from his own graphs that the velocity effect on gold is delayed and diminished compared with the real rates effects. Hence "simplified".
  • TH
    Tom H.
    21 May 2016 @ 15:12
    I hope RealVision is providing this material to universities. RV, wonderful programming.
  • g
    george .
    21 May 2016 @ 13:46
    the problem i see is with world debt. i prefer to own silver and cash, and shorting gold and the sp500 vs both. it is a weather market. a northern hemisphere drought clouds the issue. silver USLV & $
  • PH
    Philip H.
    21 May 2016 @ 13:21
    Daniel clearly has a very big brain. I feel my own IQ going up in sympathy. This is worthy of its own PhD dissertation!😎
  • WK
    William K.
    21 May 2016 @ 13:14
    Agree with long dollar view and recent commodity rally is "transitory". The presentation of system wide liquidity was useful, but are we seeing a new paradigm?
  • NT
    Norman T.
    21 May 2016 @ 12:41
    Great to see Daniel speaking about low rates for savers as the problem, as I've been banging on about this for, literally, years! (at about 26 minutes in, passim) Nice contextual thinking.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    21 May 2016 @ 11:13
    Great interview, first person who has really focused explicitly on volatility in a significant way. Definite watch again. Not wholly convinced re argument on Gold.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    21 May 2016 @ 10:59
    Best Interview so far. Great Risk Management Framework, helped me a lot.
  • am
    alex m.
    21 May 2016 @ 09:54
    Just brilliant, best RV interview on Macro economics. Refreshing honest approach, will have to bring Daniel back for an update in six months .
  • CG
    Colin G.
    21 May 2016 @ 09:01
    Bloody brilliant! Macro on steroids. My co-favourite analyst so far, along with Julian Brigden. Thanks RV for revealing these minds to the rest of us. Clarity in an unclear world.
  • KD
    Ken D.
    21 May 2016 @ 01:35
    Wonderful presentation. I hope you have him back again in six months for an update.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    21 May 2016 @ 00:48
    Top 5% of all RV and the 2'd top 5% in weeks from "down under". Who Knew? Again, this one was more than worth the value of my RV subscription! Harry Browne is back!
  • WE
    William E.
    20 May 2016 @ 22:45
    Great presentation - Yes, he could have been bit more concise (think MI2 Partners & Julian Briggen) but this was a very cogent discussion of what I believe "IS" happening; get ready!
  • JT
    Jake T.
    20 May 2016 @ 22:35
    This is nowhere near the most captivating presentation on RV TV, but Mr. Want does a phenomenal job of presenting the macro view. Deep thinking, brilliant guy who seems to understand the big picture.
  • DS
    David S.
    20 May 2016 @ 21:22
    The US dollar is the reserved currency by default. The moment investors believe that something else has less risk and more promise they will sell US dollars and buy ??
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    20 May 2016 @ 20:07
    One very thoughtful guy. I'm very much a believer in real money. Yet, suspect he's right that a deflationary bust ... until countered with helicopter $ ... will hurt AU/AG and commodities.
  • BV
    Bryan V.
    20 May 2016 @ 19:34
    Excellent discussion on the factors that drive determination of value in a free float currency regime. Have struggled with the concept of valuing assets in a unit that has no real value.
  • GB
    Grant B.
    20 May 2016 @ 16:42
    This was slow. Interesting view, but succinctness is not his strength. Gold stocks have generated alpha of +100%-300% the last 4 months. I will take a that kind of counter trend rally anytime.
  • IZ
    Ileana Z.
    20 May 2016 @ 16:10
    Excellent, detailed presentation. I will watch it again and be taking notes!
  • KC
    Klendathu C.
    20 May 2016 @ 15:16
    I'll be watching this video again. Agree underweight glod position. Deflationary shock ie Yuan deval would actually be very bearish for gold as capital flows into $ combined with mass liquidations
  • JD
    John D.
    20 May 2016 @ 14:45
    Daniel Want's presentation is perhaps the very best RealVision presentation I've seen anywhere on macro environment. Liquidity -- a combination of money supply and velocity, a key parameter to watch.