Real Vision Talks Politics, Stimulus, and Blockchain

Your Real Vision Daily Briefing for July 28, 2020

Ash Bennington & Max Wiethe cover the types of U.S. stimulus that have been implemented so far and the battle happening in Congress.

  • Divisions within the GOP are threatening the passage of the latest stimulus proposal and voting may fall along the lines of who is up for reelection soonest.
  • Markets-wise, we’re already seeing consumer confidence starting to erode, underscoring the need for some kind of stimulus to pass quickly.
  • Uncertainty in the markets is fueling a price surge in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

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The latest stimulus proposal is being hotly debated in Congress, and Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Max Wiethe waded into the discussion today on the latest edition of the Daily Briefing.

The pair talked about the divisions within the Republican party and the enormous political pressure to get something done, as well as the difficulty of winning reelection due to the optics of cutting aid to people during a national crisis.

Wiethe said he expects to see some kind of compromise on one of the most contested issues: the now-expired enhanced unemployment benefit. “There will be some kind of something, whether it is $600 or $200,” he said. “The political consequences will be too great not to get something through.”

As people are feeling real pain during an election year, Wiethe thinks voting may fall along lines of who is up for reelection next.

Bringing the discussion back to markets, Bennington and Wiethe talked about the need for speed to slow the decline that’s happening in consumer confidence. As the initial bounce of the recovery levels off, Wiethe said he thinks we are getting into a period where markets will be especially reactive.

There’s uncertainty in the market across almost every single asset – with the exception of gold, Bitcoin, and Etherium.

Real Vision has touched on the Bitcoin breakout in previous Daily Briefings, but Bennington thinks the real story may be Ethereum, which has tripled in price since late March and early April.

Bennington pointed to a number of factors that suggest a continued run for Ethereum and said that he takes a long-term view on crypto assets and doesn’t think there will be a single winner between Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Overall, his view is aligned with thinkers who say that blockchain could become a large part of our financial system, so he pays less attention to weekly and monthly price gyrations and instead focuses on what the space will look like in three, five, and 10 years.

“It’s a gold rush in a new technology,” he said.