Further weakness is to be expected in hard and soft data into year-end. The good news is there are signs of a reacceleration of growth into 2020. The bad news is that the financialisation of the economy (“tail wags the dog”) means that this more positive outlook requires stable-to-improving equities, bond markets and ideally, a weak dollar. A trade deal would go a long way to helping achieve this outcome. In its absence, the Fed needs to deliver stimulus but seems disinclined to get ahead of the game.