Deep Dive – September 2019

Published on: September 27th, 2019

Further weakness is to be expected in hard and soft data into year-end. The good news is there are signs of a reacceleration of growth into 2020. The bad news is that the financialisation of the economy (“tail wags the dog”) means that this more positive outlook requires stable-to-improving equities, bond markets and ideally, a weak dollar. A trade deal would go a long way to helping achieve this outcome. In its absence, the Fed needs to deliver stimulus but seems disinclined to get ahead of the game.


  • RH
    Rob H.
    27 September 2019 @ 16:44
    Hi Julian, Interesting report as usual. I'm getting more refi offers every day but unless I can refi and pull at least a point out, it's not worth it to me, I also checked on local Credit union car loans and they are double what I have now, so I'm not interested in trading up on my car either right now. I think people got anchored to the lower rates we had for a long time and now anything higher seems like they are getting ripped off, it all about perception and how people feel. So I couldn't agree more with your observation on rates for housing and how it will take much lower rates to increase refis'
  • JL
    J L.
    27 September 2019 @ 22:21
    what's the point of calling it meeting of minds if there's only one author, start calling the articles 20190926_Julian Brigden_Title for some extra seriousness, whether it is in focus or meeting or whatever
    • JW
      Joel W.
      29 September 2019 @ 19:54
      JL, the title of this segment annoys me as well (minor issue, but nevertheless a fair point). It’s plain to see that you were NOT referring to Raoul’s absence-due-to-wedding.
    • JL
      J L.
      29 September 2019 @ 01:07
      sure didn't mean it like that, but previous months have been the same thing
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      28 September 2019 @ 10:43
      Raoul is about to get married. I think it's only fair to cut him some slack...
  • RH
    Roland H.
    30 September 2019 @ 01:33
    Julian, your earnings surprise model and FX model show some hope if markets can make it through Q4 unscathed. But with Germany in recession and U.S. Q4 soft and hard data looking weak from your piece, I find it tough to believe there won’t be fireworks to the downside in Q4. If I infer correctly, Julian, you are not in the recession 2020 camp yet though so we’ll just have to see how this plays out.
  • TT
    T T.
    30 September 2019 @ 20:31
    Well written article with as usual some charts suggesting possible continuation of this cycle. Good points about stock market leading the economy and the unaffordabilty of real estate (common to lots of dev world areas). So while there may be some shakeouts I think short-med term is up / continue.
  • KG
    Kevin G.
    2 October 2019 @ 18:48
    This is written really well. Really like the comparison to 2015/2016. Looks like the Dollar will be the straw that breaks the camels back this time. I’ll be interested to see how the Fed react to both the increase in the Dollar and awful data - and if this forces their hand to cut 50/75 bps. Comments would be appreciated.