Comments
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SSThanks Raoul. You made a great call on bonds and I wish I'd taken it. I plan on taking the gold trade, however I'm a little skittish, given that it has gone vertical almost overnight. I'm going to see if I can get a gap fill on GDX at around $24.50. Again, my main point is just to pass on my thanks.
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SSThis might be worth looking at - gold from Elliott Wave perspective. This is normally a pay-site, but this article is open. https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Teasing-the-Miners-Gratuitous-Promo-201906205344694.html
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ZWThanks Raoul. Really appreciate your analysis. I also took profits on the big move in bond, but don't you think the 2s10s steepener is a better trade than to simply closing the position? (So I'd keep my 2Y Notes long but sell 10Y Bonds short against them). In the past 2 cycles 01 and 07, the steepening was quite consistent even before the 1st cut, and didn't give back much throughout.
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KAExcellent. Thank you.
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RHJulian's GDX trade and it's going great, I'm begging to think his target of 30 might be a little conservative now. Good call on the dollar short term. I agree with you on a longer-term timeframe, since core liquidity in a global downturn will be USD or US Treasury, therefore USD gets stronger in a global market selloff, this might line up well after we get the 8% to 10% sell-off in DXY.
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JKThanks Raul ....have been loaded on metals/miners for a while ...closed my TMF last week....been watching Bitcoin, but no position as of yet ... What do you think of the ETF for crypto in using GBTC ... ? Thanks in advance.... jim
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MSRaoul when you say sell the ED Futures do you mean spot or do you mean the Dec 20 options as well? I ask because you stated right after that you will “keep the option trade”. Thanks
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JWThanks Raoul. I’m just in the middle of struggling with how to manage my positions in these very assets, so your timing is perfect.
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RHI was watching Grant's interview this weekend with Bill White, he mentioned that if the USA felt other countries are manipulating their currencies for trade advantage, the US response would be Tariffs, he then said, fundamentally Tariffs cause a stronger dollar, so I would think talk of removal of Tariffs would weaken the dollar. So any good developments on the upcoming Trump - XI meeting could be negative for the dollar, playing into your short term weaker dollar narrative.
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CPI appreciate your Flash Update: especially after Julian's video discussing exiting longer term bonds (amongst other topics) last week. I was looking forward to hearing your views on the same topic. Many thanks.
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CCExcellent issue. The clearest directions I have seen in MI since inception. Easy to implement. Thanks. More directness like this when possible is of utmost value.
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RKThanks for the piece. Am already loaded in GLD (exposure 1 x of my NAV) and have October @25 calls of GDX that went into the money and making me very happy. Gold is mother Nature's coin ;) I am a bit sad seeing RV pumping Bitcoin though. Hope you'll warn your subscribers before the dumpin' too.
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PCSage advice regarding 2-year rates... Btw Raoul, how would you see a weakening dollar affect the ‘long hsbc.l v short hsbc.hkd’ trade that you spoke about with Carl Bass? I liked that idea... many thanks.
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KJNice update Raoul. I really like gold here. It’s been almost a decade since the highs and with a renewed race to the bottom starting with the central banks surely it should do well. Bitcoin I also like and own a few but I’d prefer to wait for a pullback before buying more. There has been renewed talk of lambos, trolling of gold people etc on twitter lately - feels a bit late 2017. Also can’t help but feel the law of large numbers has to start to apply with these parabolic log charts!
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TAHi Raoul Thanks for the update ... I already have GDX and gold future positions Today i added bitcoin July future I have some questions 1- how would you hedge your position in bitcoin as its really volatile? I put the trade and I’m praying it doesn’t turn against me :) ... thought to short 1500 share in $GBTC vs long 1 BTC future 2 . These ideas will continue to work well only if the fed cut rates , what if the FED didn’t ! ... I believe this is still valid point to be discussed 3 . I have read couple of reports, which says the market pricing 2-3 rate cuts till Dec 2019... I’m wondering from where we can get such output ? Thanks for the great work you provide !
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LD.
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rmThanks ; how do you feel about the aud/usd?
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SSThis was awesome, and is greatly appreciated. Thanks Raoul!
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SSVery helpful! Thank very much, Raoul. What advice do you have on TTL, please? Thanks.
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RDHi Raoul - what should I read to understand why you are so convinced of an impending recession? Thanks
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BROne flash update per year. Wow, thats really helpfull, keep it up. You experience writer! By the way, thanks for talking the time to reply to your customers questions. It speaks highly about you.