Flash Update – June 24, 2019

Published on: June 24th, 2019

Raoul wants to update you with regards to his thinking…


  • SS
    Steve S.
    24 June 2019 @ 16:32
    Thanks Raoul. You made a great call on bonds and I wish I'd taken it. I plan on taking the gold trade, however I'm a little skittish, given that it has gone vertical almost overnight. I'm going to see if I can get a gap fill on GDX at around $24.50. Again, my main point is just to pass on my thanks.
    • TB
      Tim B.
      1 July 2019 @ 16:55
      Looks like a pretty good call, Steve. I though GDX would be more sticky, but you made a pretty good call.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    24 June 2019 @ 16:41
    This might be worth looking at - gold from Elliott Wave perspective. This is normally a pay-site, but this article is open. https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Teasing-the-Miners-Gratuitous-Promo-201906205344694.html
  • ZW
    ZH W.
    24 June 2019 @ 16:56
    Thanks Raoul. Really appreciate your analysis. I also took profits on the big move in bond, but don't you think the 2s10s steepener is a better trade than to simply closing the position? (So I'd keep my 2Y Notes long but sell 10Y Bonds short against them). In the past 2 cycles 01 and 07, the steepening was quite consistent even before the 1st cut, and didn't give back much throughout.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:06
    Excellent. Thank you.
  • RH
    Rob H.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:07
    Julian's GDX trade and it's going great, I'm begging to think his target of 30 might be a little conservative now. Good call on the dollar short term. I agree with you on a longer-term timeframe, since core liquidity in a global downturn will be USD or US Treasury, therefore USD gets stronger in a global market selloff, this might line up well after we get the 8% to 10% sell-off in DXY.
  • JK
    James K.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:11
    Thanks Raul ....have been loaded on metals/miners for a while ...closed my TMF last week....been watching Bitcoin, but no position as of yet ... What do you think of the ETF for crypto in using GBTC ... ? Thanks in advance.... jim
  • MS
    Mark S.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:15
    Raoul when you say sell the ED Futures do you mean spot or do you mean the Dec 20 options as well? I ask because you stated right after that you will “keep the option trade”. Thanks
    • PM
      Philip M.
      25 June 2019 @ 10:42
      Great report, and thanks for the timely trade updates! Also would be grateful for clarity here on the options comment.
  • JW
    Joel W.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:17
    Thanks Raoul. I’m just in the middle of struggling with how to manage my positions in these very assets, so your timing is perfect.
  • RH
    Rob H.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:18
    I was watching Grant's interview this weekend with Bill White, he mentioned that if the USA felt other countries are manipulating their currencies for trade advantage, the US response would be Tariffs, he then said, fundamentally Tariffs cause a stronger dollar, so I would think talk of removal of Tariffs would weaken the dollar. So any good developments on the upcoming Trump - XI meeting could be negative for the dollar, playing into your short term weaker dollar narrative.
  • CP
    CRAIG P.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:20
    I appreciate your Flash Update: especially after Julian's video discussing exiting longer term bonds (amongst other topics) last week. I was looking forward to hearing your views on the same topic. Many thanks.
  • CC
    Chad C.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:25
    Excellent issue. The clearest directions I have seen in MI since inception. Easy to implement. Thanks. More directness like this when possible is of utmost value.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:37
    Thanks for the piece. Am already loaded in GLD (exposure 1 x of my NAV) and have October @25 calls of GDX that went into the money and making me very happy. Gold is mother Nature's coin ;) I am a bit sad seeing RV pumping Bitcoin though. Hope you'll warn your subscribers before the dumpin' too.
    • BF
      Brad F.
      25 June 2019 @ 19:26
      I don’t think RV is pumping bitcoin by any stretch. All asset classes should be fair game regardless of the personal biases of some investors. Raoul has been openly long and short/flat on BTC in the past. I would be very sad to see a new asset class omitted from RV.
  • PC
    Paul C.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:57
    Sage advice regarding 2-year rates... Btw Raoul, how would you see a weakening dollar affect the ‘long hsbc.l v short hsbc.hkd’ trade that you spoke about with Carl Bass? I liked that idea... many thanks.
    • BF
      Brad F.
      26 June 2019 @ 17:31
      Thanks I’ll check it out.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      26 June 2019 @ 10:25
      Brad, I’m using Interactive Brokers - tickers hsbc.l v 0005.hk. It’s a very efficient trade idea - the hedge gives you minimal volatility with potentially massive upside if it plays out. Pure quality.
    • BF
      Brad F.
      25 June 2019 @ 19:27
      Paul have you found a way to put this trade on? I haven’t been able to source the HK stock via my usual brokers.
  • KJ
    Keith J.
    24 June 2019 @ 18:01
    Nice update Raoul. I really like gold here. It’s been almost a decade since the highs and with a renewed race to the bottom starting with the central banks surely it should do well. Bitcoin I also like and own a few but I’d prefer to wait for a pullback before buying more. There has been renewed talk of lambos, trolling of gold people etc on twitter lately - feels a bit late 2017. Also can’t help but feel the law of large numbers has to start to apply with these parabolic log charts!
  • TA
    T A.
    24 June 2019 @ 18:47
    Hi Raoul Thanks for the update ... I already have GDX and gold future positions Today i added bitcoin July future I have some questions 1- how would you hedge your position in bitcoin as its really volatile? I put the trade and I’m praying it doesn’t turn against me :) ... thought to short 1500 share in $GBTC vs long 1 BTC future 2 . These ideas will continue to work well only if the fed cut rates , what if the FED didn’t ! ... I believe this is still valid point to be discussed 3 . I have read couple of reports, which says the market pricing 2-3 rate cuts till Dec 2019... I’m wondering from where we can get such output ? Thanks for the great work you provide !
    • TA
      T A.
      26 June 2019 @ 11:31
      @ ZH W, thanks … that was helpful
    • ZW
      ZH W.
      25 June 2019 @ 07:06
      Let me try to answer your question #3. If you don't have access to Bloomberg terminals etc, CME's website actually has a series of handy tools, such as the FedWatch Tool that calculates the probability of FOMC rate moves based on Fed Funds Rate futures. From there you can take a quick glance of what the market is currently pricing in terms of number of cuts. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
  • LD
    Lance D.
    24 June 2019 @ 20:00
  • rm
    robert m.
    24 June 2019 @ 21:41
    Thanks ; how do you feel about the aud/usd?
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    24 June 2019 @ 22:23
    This was awesome, and is greatly appreciated. Thanks Raoul!
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    25 June 2019 @ 00:03
    Very helpful! Thank very much, Raoul. What advice do you have on TTL, please? Thanks.
  • RD
    Rahul D.
    25 June 2019 @ 01:55
    Hi Raoul - what should I read to understand why you are so convinced of an impending recession? Thanks
  • BR
    Brian R.
    26 June 2019 @ 01:50
    One flash update per year. Wow, thats really helpfull, keep it up. You experience writer! By the way, thanks for talking the time to reply to your customers questions. It speaks highly about you.
    • JH
      Jonathon H.
      3 July 2019 @ 11:35
      Flash updates are an added extra rather than a usual feature. This is Raoul’s budget service and he has previously stated he responds best on Twitter, no snark required. The research is top drawer and has literally changed my life. I am currently up enough to pay off my house through Eurodollars and own bonds all over the world to good effect. These are instruments I had not traded in any great size before. Perhaps you should spend more time evaluating data rather than biting at Raoul who is trying to lay it all out for us and has been epically correct thus far.
    • LD
      Lance D.
      26 June 2019 @ 13:33
      I take it you missed the bond trade then?? well your not alone m8, if it helps i also never got in the bond trade & there is more chance of "yorkshire tea" getting pulled from the shelves of ASDA tomorrow morning than me taking the bitcoin trade you could actually send "Flash Gordon" himself to recommend bit coin it still is not going to happen i can not bring myself to pull the trigger on that beast. Stay relaxed Brian it will work out for you and me eventually - i just concentrate on ensuring the moves i make cover the cost off the subscription (yes its is hard entering an industry i have never worked in) But its the knowledge i get from the service that is important to me. I aim to get on the BLACKLIST in the next couple of years and i believe we all should .