Flash Update – June 24, 2019

Published on: June 24th, 2019

Raoul wants to update you with regards to his thinking…

Comments

  • BR
    Brian R.
    26 June 2019 @ 01:50
    One flash update per year. Wow, thats really helpfull, keep it up. You experience writer! By the way, thanks for talking the time to reply to your customers questions. It speaks highly about you.
    • LD
      Lance D.
      26 June 2019 @ 13:33
      I take it you missed the bond trade then?? well your not alone m8, if it helps i also never got in the bond trade & there is more chance of "yorkshire tea" getting pulled from the shelves of ASDA tomorrow morning than me taking the bitcoin trade you could actually send "Flash Gordon" himself to recommend bit coin it still is not going to happen i can not bring myself to pull the trigger on that beast. Stay relaxed Brian it will work out for you and me eventually - i just concentrate on ensuring the moves i make cover the cost off the subscription (yes its is hard entering an industry i have never worked in) But its the knowledge i get from the service that is important to me. I aim to get on the BLACKLIST in the next couple of years and i believe we all should .
    • JH
      Jonathon H.
      3 July 2019 @ 11:35
      Flash updates are an added extra rather than a usual feature. This is Raoul’s budget service and he has previously stated he responds best on Twitter, no snark required. The research is top drawer and has literally changed my life. I am currently up enough to pay off my house through Eurodollars and own bonds all over the world to good effect. These are instruments I had not traded in any great size before. Perhaps you should spend more time evaluating data rather than biting at Raoul who is trying to lay it all out for us and has been epically correct thus far.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    24 June 2019 @ 16:32
    Thanks Raoul. You made a great call on bonds and I wish I'd taken it. I plan on taking the gold trade, however I'm a little skittish, given that it has gone vertical almost overnight. I'm going to see if I can get a gap fill on GDX at around $24.50. Again, my main point is just to pass on my thanks.
    • TB
      Tim B.
      1 July 2019 @ 16:55
      Looks like a pretty good call, Steve. I though GDX would be more sticky, but you made a pretty good call.
  • PC
    Paul C.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:57
    Sage advice regarding 2-year rates... Btw Raoul, how would you see a weakening dollar affect the ‘long hsbc.l v short hsbc.hkd’ trade that you spoke about with Carl Bass? I liked that idea... many thanks.
    • BF
      Brad F.
      25 June 2019 @ 19:27
      Paul have you found a way to put this trade on? I haven’t been able to source the HK stock via my usual brokers.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      26 June 2019 @ 10:25
      Brad, I’m using Interactive Brokers - tickers hsbc.l v 0005.hk. It’s a very efficient trade idea - the hedge gives you minimal volatility with potentially massive upside if it plays out. Pure quality.
    • BF
      Brad F.
      26 June 2019 @ 17:31
      Thanks I’ll check it out.
  • TA
    Talib A.
    24 June 2019 @ 18:47
    Hi Raoul Thanks for the update ... I already have GDX and gold future positions Today i added bitcoin July future I have some questions 1- how would you hedge your position in bitcoin as its really volatile? I put the trade and I’m praying it doesn’t turn against me :) ... thought to short 1500 share in $GBTC vs long 1 BTC future 2 . These ideas will continue to work well only if the fed cut rates , what if the FED didn’t ! ... I believe this is still valid point to be discussed 3 . I have read couple of reports, which says the market pricing 2-3 rate cuts till Dec 2019... I’m wondering from where we can get such output ? Thanks for the great work you provide !
    • ZW
      ZH W.
      25 June 2019 @ 07:06
      Let me try to answer your question #3. If you don't have access to Bloomberg terminals etc, CME's website actually has a series of handy tools, such as the FedWatch Tool that calculates the probability of FOMC rate moves based on Fed Funds Rate futures. From there you can take a quick glance of what the market is currently pricing in terms of number of cuts. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
    • TA
      Talib A.
      26 June 2019 @ 11:31
      @ ZH W, thanks … that was helpful
  • RK
    Robert K.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:37
    Thanks for the piece. Am already loaded in GLD (exposure 1 x of my NAV) and have October @25 calls of GDX that went into the money and making me very happy. Gold is mother Nature's coin ;) I am a bit sad seeing RV pumping Bitcoin though. Hope you'll warn your subscribers before the dumpin' too.
    • BF
      Brad F.
      25 June 2019 @ 19:26
      I don’t think RV is pumping bitcoin by any stretch. All asset classes should be fair game regardless of the personal biases of some investors. Raoul has been openly long and short/flat on BTC in the past. I would be very sad to see a new asset class omitted from RV.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:15
    Raoul when you say sell the ED Futures do you mean spot or do you mean the Dec 20 options as well? I ask because you stated right after that you will “keep the option trade”. Thanks
    • PM
      Philip M.
      25 June 2019 @ 10:42
      Great report, and thanks for the timely trade updates! Also would be grateful for clarity here on the options comment.
  • RD
    Rahul D.
    25 June 2019 @ 01:55
    Hi Raoul - what should I read to understand why you are so convinced of an impending recession? Thanks
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    25 June 2019 @ 00:03
    Very helpful! Thank very much, Raoul. What advice do you have on TTL, please? Thanks.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    24 June 2019 @ 22:23
    This was awesome, and is greatly appreciated. Thanks Raoul!
  • rm
    robert m.
    24 June 2019 @ 21:41
    Thanks ; how do you feel about the aud/usd?
  • LD
    Lance D.
    24 June 2019 @ 20:00
    .
  • KJ
    Keith J.
    24 June 2019 @ 18:01
    Nice update Raoul. I really like gold here. It’s been almost a decade since the highs and with a renewed race to the bottom starting with the central banks surely it should do well. Bitcoin I also like and own a few but I’d prefer to wait for a pullback before buying more. There has been renewed talk of lambos, trolling of gold people etc on twitter lately - feels a bit late 2017. Also can’t help but feel the law of large numbers has to start to apply with these parabolic log charts!
  • CC
    Chad C.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:25
    Excellent issue. The clearest directions I have seen in MI since inception. Easy to implement. Thanks. More directness like this when possible is of utmost value.
  • CP
    CRAIG P.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:20
    I appreciate your Flash Update: especially after Julian's video discussing exiting longer term bonds (amongst other topics) last week. I was looking forward to hearing your views on the same topic. Many thanks.
  • RH
    Rob H.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:18
    I was watching Grant's interview this weekend with Bill White, he mentioned that if the USA felt other countries are manipulating their currencies for trade advantage, the US response would be Tariffs, he then said, fundamentally Tariffs cause a stronger dollar, so I would think talk of removal of Tariffs would weaken the dollar. So any good developments on the upcoming Trump - XI meeting could be negative for the dollar, playing into your short term weaker dollar narrative.
  • JW
    Joel W.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:17
    Thanks Raoul. I’m just in the middle of struggling with how to manage my positions in these very assets, so your timing is perfect.
  • JK
    James K.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:11
    Thanks Raul ....have been loaded on metals/miners for a while ...closed my TMF last week....been watching Bitcoin, but no position as of yet ... What do you think of the ETF for crypto in using GBTC ... ? Thanks in advance.... jim
  • RH
    Rob H.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:07
    Julian's GDX trade and it's going great, I'm begging to think his target of 30 might be a little conservative now. Good call on the dollar short term. I agree with you on a longer-term timeframe, since core liquidity in a global downturn will be USD or US Treasury, therefore USD gets stronger in a global market selloff, this might line up well after we get the 8% to 10% sell-off in DXY.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    24 June 2019 @ 17:06
    Excellent. Thank you.
  • ZW
    ZH W.
    24 June 2019 @ 16:56
    Thanks Raoul. Really appreciate your analysis. I also took profits on the big move in bond, but don't you think the 2s10s steepener is a better trade than to simply closing the position? (So I'd keep my 2Y Notes long but sell 10Y Bonds short against them). In the past 2 cycles 01 and 07, the steepening was quite consistent even before the 1st cut, and didn't give back much throughout.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    24 June 2019 @ 16:41
    This might be worth looking at - gold from Elliott Wave perspective. This is normally a pay-site, but this article is open. https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Teasing-the-Miners-Gratuitous-Promo-201906205344694.html

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Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

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Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

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MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

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Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

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What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

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Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

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Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

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CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.