Flash Update – June 9, 2020

Published on: June 9th, 2020

Following the more in-depth discussion between Raoul and Julian in Insider Talks on 8th June, below is a review from Julian of trades and strategies with suggestions for action highlighted. While some were addressed in the tête-à-tête, for the most part, action involves pulling up stops on trades that have been working. Charts are provided to illustrate.

Comments

  • JM
    John M.
    9 June 2020 @ 22:52
    1 0
    Great update. Any thoughts on recent run ups in HTZ CHK and reports these were driven by retail investors on you risk approach?
  • HS
    Haythim S.
    9 June 2020 @ 23:36
    0 0
    Thanks Julian
  • AP
    ANTHONY P.
    10 June 2020 @ 00:26
    1 0
    Many thanks! Crystal clear and timely, as usual.
  • AP
    Adam P.
    10 June 2020 @ 00:48
    1 0
    Great stuff, Julian. I thought you were early on these, but you're the one pulling the stops up. Well done!
  • DW
    Dean W.
    10 June 2020 @ 01:28
    0 0
    Good info and suggestions. I'm long GDX, GLD and SLV (have physical as well). Was late to the party for the AUD.USD trade so will sit that one out for now, probably EUR too until I have a better sense of which way USD is headed. Lots of great trending forex trades over the past 2 months are winding down as valuations come back near pre-March levels. Haven't felt comfortable with the DBA chart, so will hold on that for now. If oil heads back down I may go long USD versus CAD or NOK.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      15 June 2020 @ 11:16
      0 0
      Forgive the question Sean, but could you say why you prefer it?
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      10 June 2020 @ 20:50
      2 0
      Prefer RJA in the Ag space.
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    10 June 2020 @ 03:29
    3 0
    Great Job Julian.
  • JL
    J L.
    10 June 2020 @ 09:42
    0 0
    pretty sure XME target 25 is wrong, Julian said 50 on the initial recommendation and mentions ambitious targets again in the PDF
    • ly
      lena y.
      10 June 2020 @ 15:27
      1 0
      first target of XME is 25, then 50.
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    10 June 2020 @ 10:13
    5 1
    I'm struggling with USD. Julian has been spot on lately and lately there seems to be only one way in the USD. It could be temporary or could be a transition to a weaker dollar, but I have quit some much money already and now Julian is expanding on the other side of this trade. I think it's best for me to get out of the way and see where this is going. Raoul and Julian say that it's great to have 2 different views. I only partly agree. I can read contrasting views on the internet all day long. When I subscribe to a service and paying 3/4k it would be nice to get some clarity. Since I subscribed 2/3 months ago Julian and Raoul only agree on the Gold trade, if I'm not mistaking.
    • FK
      Frank K.
      11 June 2020 @ 10:14
      4 0
      Hi Guys, I would argue that both Julian and Raoul will be right! But, at different points in time - Julian on a shorter run and Raoul on a longer run. Therefore, now Julian, then Raoul. At least this is my understanding of their individual time horizon's that they focus on for some trades/ analysis, etc. And none of their views are for investment horizons that are shorter than say 2-3 month up to longer horizons of say 12-18 month... Cheers, Frank
    • MP
      Mate P.
      11 June 2020 @ 02:46
      3 0
      I see your point, but would it be a better service if they "coordinated" their opinions and served us with a toned down view that neither of them truly believes in? Or should it be a one man show? I think we have a decent amount of options we can do based on this discussion: - The disagreement itself leads you to stay out for now, which is rarely argued as an option, but if you're unsure, why not? - Go with Julian's more reflationary trades - Go with Raoul's deflationary view - Cherry-pick between the trades based on your own portfolio and risk reward
    • Dv
      Daniel v.
      11 June 2020 @ 00:13
      1 1
      That is not my point. The point is not that Julian did a great job on the silver trade, of which Raoul was less enthusiastic. My point is that they now have opposing trades on: Raoul says USD goes up, Julian says it goes down. Of course I myself am the one putting on my own trades but it now comes down to who do you think is right? I don't see the value in these 180 degrees opposing views.
    • MP
      Mate P.
      10 June 2020 @ 20:34
      2 3
      Raoul's trades made you a fortune if you followed since rates topped in Q3 2018, he nailed the buildup. On the other hand, Julian nailed the way out - so far. The risk-reward on his silver call was so asymmetric that even if you lean towards a deflationary spiral, it was still worth to put on. At the end of the day it's your capital, your call.
  • CB
    Charles B.
    10 June 2020 @ 13:28
    0 1
    Can DBA go up even if he dollar rises as Raoul said it will?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      15 June 2020 @ 11:05
      0 0
      Yes it can, but it would be less likely. I would accumulate a mid sized position, and if the dollar does break key levels I would then add. FWLTW
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    10 June 2020 @ 13:57
    0 0
    Hi Julian, thanks for these. Does anyone have any recommendations on how to invest in e.g. XME in the UK via an ISA or SIPP? As it doesn't have a KIID I can't seem to buy via my broker due to EU regs. I've also looked into comparable ETFS such as IYM or VAW. Many thanks.
  • ly
    lena y.
    10 June 2020 @ 15:29
    0 0
    Was SLV stopped at $16.50 Monday?
    • JJ
      JW2 J.
      12 June 2020 @ 13:42
      0 0
      I sold EWW. Whether that was right or wrong we will see - it felt right yesterday :-) and I took a profit so no harm done....
    • ly
      lena y.
      12 June 2020 @ 12:52
      0 0
      Thx for your thought. Similar situation happened to EWW yesterday! Stay or go?
    • JJ
      JW2 J.
      12 June 2020 @ 06:57
      1 0
      Well..he did put the stop at 16.50 (SLV)..so it's up to you what time horizon you want to apply, ie sit thru a dip because long you're term bullish or sell and re-enter later at lower prices. Sorry if this sounds obvious to you..I am there myself, I am long Silver and trying to figure out what I do now I still have an opp to exit with profit or just wait and see and take some pain.
  • FK
    Frank K.
    11 June 2020 @ 10:15
    0 0
    Thanks for this very helpful update Julian - have a great day everyone.
  • JJ
    JW2 J.
    11 June 2020 @ 18:29
    0 0
    Sold EWW whilst I could still book 11% profit. Been monitoring this market today and don't like the sentiment. Just doing risk management. Sold my VNM position as well at a tiny loss. Looking to get back in once things settle down a bit.
    • JJ
      JW2 J.
      12 June 2020 @ 13:41
      0 0
      Indeed...can't say we have not been warned by several of our hosts :-) I guess the only thing here is to adhere to a 'don't be stupid' policy and better be safe than sorry (and keep a hoard of cash :-)
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      12 June 2020 @ 13:34
      0 0
      my EWW stopped out yesterday.. I see its recovered this morning, smh. wild ride
  • MC
    Mathieu C.
    11 June 2020 @ 19:43
    0 0
    at some point in the near futures equity indices and dollar will send signals that it wont crash but slowly bearing down (over a long period of time) which wont make conventional dollar short suitable. Not sure what the signal will be but that will be when to enter for selected commodity. Possibly a bearish signal on gold.
  • WD
    Walther D.
    12 June 2020 @ 08:31
    1 0
    Where can I find an explanation of the thesis on XME and XBA?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      15 June 2020 @ 11:00
      1 0
      Yes, JW2 is absolutely right. The one sentence summary would be .... as the Fed prints money to prevent collapse, we should buy dips in very bombed out tangible assets.
    • JJ
      JW2 J.
      12 June 2020 @ 13:48
      1 0
      On DBA (I guess you meant to type that and not XBA) you should listen to the recent Mish Schneider video (Stop 13.1; Add 15.27 which is >200MA). The XME trade Julian explained in the recent report ("INFLATION HEDGES CONTINUED") and in the last 2 Insider Talks if I recall correctly.
  • JP
    Jaewon P.
    15 June 2020 @ 08:11
    0 0
    XME will reach the stop price today. Wondering if everyone is selling? BTW, like I've seen in other commentary sections, I think a slack channel or a board for Pro+ members may be helpful in case of events like this :) But I understand that it will be very difficult to manage from RV's perspective, so I understand that it's not an easy ask.
  • MJ
    Matthew J.
    15 June 2020 @ 14:35
    0 0
    @Harry Can I clarify this S&P Put recommendation from JB, Can't see any updates. Matt