Comments
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WMDerebit is banned in the US
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MSThanks Raoul.... To anyone here that knows how to get this setup with Ledger X, Please leave a link(s) for newbies like me to get in on this trade... Thanks in Advance!!! Go luck all!
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BDI historically buy the coins and do not trade/use options with respect to crypto assets. Do the option contract work the same as equity such as 1 contract=100 shares (or ETH in this case or is it 10?)
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JHCan vouch on LedgerX, been a client since mid last year on the BTC side of things. They added ETH options in the first half of this year. Exchange was bought by FTX in recent months. Raoul points this out, but given that Derebit has the most volume (by a wide stretch!) in the options space, you’re going to see fairly wide bid/ask spreads and just a much lower number of transactions on LedgerX.
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JASorry, I live in New York and therefore I need to be protected from a potential 26x upside by my regulators. But I can totally bet on the Thursday Night Football game. Apparently, this is gambling though lol. It's too late for this cycle, but I'm going to need to log into the legalities of being a US citizen living in NYC and using VPN's and offshore bank accounts JUST so I can get equal access to the financial markets. The IV is already up on Ledger X. Folks can take a look if they want, but it's a lot less attractive for a person like me who subscribes to the Monte Carlo style of options trading. Too bad, I like the thesis.
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FKLooks like team RV has moved the market!
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HCCan we buy call options of $GLXY instead? Their balance sheet is basically mostly ETH.
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MDThank you for sharing this one. I was really keen to hear how to do this in detail. I am in. Fingers crossed. M
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SWBe careful if trading on LedgerX.... currently asking around 1K for the 2022 March 10K CALL. This is a mini contract.... 1/10 ETH... so you would be paying 10K for the right to buy ETH at 10K? Doesn't seem that great a risk/reward unless I'm missing something.
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PKwant to give this try but having issues with deribit set up
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MAAll, I am in Ontario, Canada, can't use Deribit or Ledger X, any other options? I have been looking since the past few weeks but I can't find anything. Hopefully someone can help!
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OGPlease correct me if something is totally wrong with my calculation: As I write this now, the Mar-21 $15000 Call is 0.05 ETH and the $10000 Call is 0.085. Assuming price of $20000, isn't that $10,000 Call a better deal? x31.38 vs. 26.68? And if the price will be less than $20000 there is still upside? Thanks.
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jsBig jump from $167 - curious why that might be Bid - 949 Ask - 835 on LedgerX 2022 March 25 - 10,000 ETH Bid - 225 Ask - 430 2021 Dec 31 - 10,000 ETH
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LHDeribit does not allow cash deposit. You have to transfer Crypto.
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SPNew to this type of trade. What's the risk? Is it just your initial investment or can you end up owing them money?
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DDHi everyone!! Has anyone from Us been able to set up this trade. If so can you share how you did it. Thanks ten million times. I will also do the same. Check back soon. Good luck so excitihgngo ooooo CRYPTO WWWOOOOHHHHOOO
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afThe other thing to be aware of is that these are traded as European options, so unlike US options there's no early settlement.
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LOPremium is USD266 now.... Raoul - if you think ETH goes to 40k max, would you sell a call with a 40k strike? Think that would save you ~USD60 premium on each option based on prevailing market
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MLMany thanks Raoul, appreciate it, as always! Love the idea, fingers crossed!
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JRRaoul, Thank you for another great idea. Unfortunately US. Does anyone know if you can "margin, leverage" your Coinbase account?
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afThanks for the info on Deribet, Raoul. Easy to set up (non US) within ten minutes and fund. Trade done. Should be fun.
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RGHi, Can anyone breakdown the math. Newbie to options here. I get the idea. But I can't figure out the math. Much appreciated.
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OMLedgerX is pretty terrible to be honest. ETH longer dated calls pricing about 3x of what Derbit charges. So I'm only seeing about 3-4x leverage on the $10,000 strike which is their highest in March for example. Oh well. I'll just load up on the actual ETH. Just fyi. I appreciate the flash update.
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JSYou could also try full Defi with Opyn.co for US based investors - liquidity is pretty thin though and only dated to Dec 21
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MD@Raoul, would you please correct me on something? You mention Dec 31 ETH 10000 calls for $66 on LedgerX. I've been watching LedgerX carefully for weeks, and that call has never been under $225. At the moment it's a 375/450 spread. Are you looking at something different than I'm seeing? Thank you.
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YLHello, does anybody know if Deribit calls are European or American? Will I be able to sell before the strike date on Deribit if need be? Thanks!
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HSDepending on conviction, even a CFD with 25% margin will get you 40+x from here.
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RSThe price close to the 15k suggested, it seems to me almost certain that in "some month on the way" it will have to double in price... Therefore, it seems to me that it makes more sense and better risk/return: Buy a strike 100% above the spot every month (30 days maturity) one fifth of the value, than a 160 day maturity...
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KHSo keen to participate, I've managed to set up my Deribit account but this is way beyond my level of experience. It's embarrassing but I don't know how to go through with the process of buying the options... anyone have any suggestions! Any guidance would be very welcome!!!
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AHKirsten H. I don't see why this should have to be embarrassing for us to be able to ask for help. Lots of people in the RV community do not come from Finance or Tech backgrounds and we are here to learn. I joined RV 2 years ago and had very little if any knowledge of the financial/crypto world. All I can say is that the membership in an of itself and what I have learnt so far from this community has been my best investment to date. I am struggling to understand how to put this trade on as well . I have been watching lots of youtube videos over the last 24hrs. My Deribit account is set up and ready to go but as a newbie it is really confusing. If there is anyone here that can help give people like me and Kirsten some guidance that would be amazing. TIA
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YLWhat is the minimum numbers of call options i can trade on Deribit please?
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DMI just started watching ETH options after reading the report. It seems 20000 strike offers the most implied leverage (3ish times). However, 10000, 12000, and 15000 strike all offer around 2.8 times implied leverage. I may diversify a bit of my lottery ticket.
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APThis is the call Raoul is suggesting to buy and that is also the price that is increasing with the price of ETH. By clicking on advance Order you are also able to set a limit price, lower would be great, possibly $170 as Raoul suggested. you are able to see the volume, and to be honest is quite low for this $15000 so not many are betting on this, atm it is probably overvalued. https://pasteboard.co/8hgZ5cm6G6ka.png If I understood correctly, every unit equal 0.066ETH so more unit you are buying, higher the stake becomes. See at the bottom right the increase in price for this call. https://pasteboard.co/sThfyN0EUykj.png in this case as we are buying a call we are only going to loose the Premium, if we were going to sell, the lost cold have been infinite. I think this is how it works. Correct me if I am wrong or missed something. ;)
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VDAny one buy on LedgerX - I tried it say " insufficient collateral - even for buying calls? Help appreciated
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AHHi all, Would one of you mind helping me with sense-checking my math on profit potential for doing the trade as it stands today? I can't understand how Raoul "only" gets to a 87x @ 40.000 USD on his numbers (the ~28x @ 20.000 USD makes sense), so I am likely missing something: 1 ETH call, 15.000 USD/ETH strike @ a premium of 0.0825 ETH / 379 USD (current prices of Deribit) Settled @ 40.000 USD/ETH: (40.000 - 15.000 / 40.000) = 0.625 ETH => 0.625 - 0.0825 ETH = 0.5425 ETH = 21.700 USD in profit ===> Return: 21.700 USD / 379 USD = 57x Settled @ 20.000 USD/ETH: (20.000 - 15.000 / 40.000) = 0.125 ETH => 0.125 - 0.0825 ETH = 0.0425 ETH = 850 USD in profit ===> Return: 850 USD / 379 USD = 2.25x In any case, I would likely wait for correction to see if possible to pick up options cheaper, even probably less likely. Thanks in advance!
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JVhttps://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/10/20/options-traders-bet-big-that-ethers-turn-for-an-etf-is-coming-soon/
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JVPrice is up to $320 now.... Bullish.
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YLCan somebody please point me to the source of stats on crypto networks active addresses/wallet holders? In October Insider Talks Raoul mentioned ETH/SOL/LUNA as probably the three largest ones but is there a way to monitor this dynamic? I'd be very interested in comparing say Tezos to Avalanche etc.
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TMI’d like to know how implied volatility and delta play a role? The delta we see on LedgerX is <50
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KKI just purchased this option trade. Its the first time I bought eth, its the first crypto option contract I purchased. Ive bought this with absolute F*CK-Y0$ money (pardon my French) out of my stock trading profits from last year. Im up 25% on a decent chunk of change from my fossil trades. Now I dumped 25% of my profit in this trade. Its both scary and not. Scariest part was on transactional side. But that's habbits for you. In my brain I've burned the money and im absolutely fine with it. Having this chunk burn on my fiat account would feel less safe tbh.. Its a call option into the future of March 2022 that ill gladly take right now. I feel more relaxed now. Oddly enough. RV sub since 2016, pretty late to crypto,. But hey, better be a late bloomer than a non-boom-nocoiner. im excited about the energy of the crypto space and excited about the future. no matter what you do. Good luck to all! thx RV & Paul.
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JWI am in this trade now as well. Better than buying an NFT depicting a pixelated gecko :-) (and I like gecko's)
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MRi bought 10k dec and 15k mar - options on the 20th and 27th. - prices are much lower (up to 30%). am i missing something or is vol coming off sharply?
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RRInteresting trade!
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AA@Raoul, why not doing a covered call on the ETH that we carry and at same time buying a call spread? For example, we could sell two calls @ 12,000 for $228 each and buy one call @6,000 for $745 (total cost $289 or 6.7%) - all expiring on March 22. We can sell the additional call because we carry the underling. If ETH reaches 12k or higher by expiration we would increase our return by 74% vs only carrying the underling. We would only be worse off if ETH goes higher than $17,711. Breakeven would be ETH current price + $289. I like the odds.