Flash Update – October 28, 2020

Published on: October 28th, 2020

Events create risk and opportunity. When the time and date of an event is known but the outcome remains uncertain, it is wise to reflect on the risks and opportunities associated with it. An experienced CIO will consider whether positions on the book are just stale legacies of earlier enthusiasm or not. In that spirit, Julian reviews our portfolio for pre-election fine tuning.

Comments

  • DP
    Divyesh P.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:12
    would love to hear more on TLT with regards to the differing views from Julian and RP
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 October 2020 @ 11:01
      You make a good point. JB explicitly recognized that RP and he were diverging on TLT. Interestingly, JB remains committed to the short, despite it having made money. Yes, he tightened the stop. But he didn't take profits and part of that is because he recognizes that one of the possible outcomes is aggressive fiscal reflation by a new administration. I would argue that this is one of the main differences between JB and RPs macro analysis. JB is more "optimistic" that the US authorities can force reflation with a large enough fiscal impulse. RP thinks that ultimately, government policy cannot (or is unlikely to) force inflation higher given the amounts of debt and the overall economic situation. As inflation comes down, the real interest rates will rise, tightening monetary policy.
    • ly
      lena y.
      29 October 2020 @ 17:07
      Yesterday with the market downed more than three percent, the bond market has little movement. Is it a sign of the price discovery gone? How valuable is such trade based on risk and reward? I don't trade options so it is hard for me to make judgement.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    28 October 2020 @ 21:56
    Any update on Julian's position on the short QQQ recommendation he gave some weeks ago?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      29 October 2020 @ 11:13
      Sadly, it hit the stop on the close of October 9th. So if you are still in the trade you are not respecting stops, which is generally bad form. Despite the stop being hit, JB makes it clear that now is not a time to be very bullish on equities in his opinion. The update above is all about cutting risk, and updating stops. Risk assets are trading poorly in a number of markets. Covid is on the rise in multiple geographies, and the fiscal stimulus appears to be postponed until well after the election. Pretty much everything that made risk assets look like a good idea is not there now. Its a shame JB went short equities too early, but he remains cautious of equity risk.
    • WM
      Wai M.
      29 October 2020 @ 11:33
      it stopped out with 7% loss
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    28 October 2020 @ 20:16
    ..and finally although defunct from a trade recommendation point of view I did continue to analyse it as I was already short the nasdaq before the trade recommendation came in and it proved useful to some members so I have kept the thread going updated even as of todays trading October 28th. For each update I have replied to my own thread so you can hopefully follow the analysis from inception: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/nasdaq-short-positioning-suggestions-based-on-fibonacci-confluence-resistan--5f71d6d7fbaaa77ad7bdd499
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    28 October 2020 @ 20:14
    and this is my gold spot technical analysis post in the Exchange: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/gold-spot-technical-analysis-to-go-with-trade-recommendation-flash-update-5f99cb5c3531ec395e837f28
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    28 October 2020 @ 20:13
    This is my Silver spot post in the exchange: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/silver-spot-technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-confluence-levels-with-refer--5f99c34a2d50676447afdb1a
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    28 October 2020 @ 16:14
    GDX already hit the stop. I’m more interested in spot gold and silver because I suspected a breakdown of the recent bounce off 1865 and 22 respectively as tenuous. There were technical Fibonacci confluence support levels there for both but both also had much stronger confluence levels below and now that today is showing a sell off already, I should mention those key support levels again. For gold they are 1863-65 (the original support that gold bounced off), then 1824x3 levels which is significant that 3 converge so identically from a long term daily basis, then also just below that a few more around 1819-1821. I would like to see these lower levels reached before buying more gold. Same for silver breaking down from here I see support at the following levels 2380-87 and 2369-74, 2269-2279 which is a key one, then it’s 2196-2223 and 2007-2008. I can post this analysis in the exchange as a new post as I did with the Nasdaq trade levels which I’m still updating even as of today as an ongoing exercise in providing some technical analysis to the recommendations.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 October 2020 @ 17:51
      Great idea Joseph (re posting in the Exchange). JB sees very similar support/resistance for the metals, although I think in our levels for for silver we are looking for a bigger concession than you.
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      28 October 2020 @ 18:21
      OK Harry thanks for feedback and permitting me to support the trade recommendations in the Exchange. The silver level I want to see is retest of 22 with my eye on 20 as per above. I just mention 2269-79 as it appears technically significant but as the market also previously reached 22 another retest would not surprise me at all and with expected increased volatility in the coming days 20 is very possible even as an extension of a drop to 22 given the vol of silver! I just updated the now defunct Nasdaq trade but decided to continue the analysis from the levels I derived anyway and updated today with a chart for a change. Will work on similar with the metals in a new post and include a chart for each from the outset.
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      28 October 2020 @ 18:29
      Harry I should add that I am looking for daily closes above these levels to confirm support and with a close higher than the open. If the market settles at 22 or just below on a daily that for me isn't necessarily an entry as it could easily drop to the next level in that case. Don't want to get too cute but also, bearing in mind the vol of silver, a daily move on strong buying can be huge as can the selling as we all know and have seen this year.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      28 October 2020 @ 19:31
      Hi Joseph. I wouldnt wanna imply that you needed "permission". But you definitely have my blessing!

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.