In Focus Trade Portfolio – June 1, 2020

Published on: June 1st, 2020

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publications or Flash Update. Please note that in this updated portfolio, some of the stops on open trades have been moved.

Comments

  • AH
    Alan H.
    1 July 2020 @ 14:08
    For July's updates, please ask Raoul and Julian to comment on which trades should be entered if not already in them.
  • AP
    Aneil P.
    6 June 2020 @ 05:59
    I really like the idea of using "slack" channel for pro users and moving into the digital age. We can interact much much better in Slack than this antiquated online blog. Common Guys, for 3K/subscriber you could totally do this.
    • JF
      John F.
      9 June 2020 @ 21:10
      Couldn't agree more. There should be one place (not sure what a slack channel is, but it sounds right) where Pro subs can go to interact and importantly see exactly what the Pro premium content is. My hope was that the Pro tier was differentiated in that it would provide access to premium content -- "premium" equated to guests providing concrete trade ideas. While most of the guests provide great macro views, they don't often enough provide tradeable ideas and trade timing/construction (apart from JB and RP (though RP's trade recommendations are wanting on timing/construction -- not good enough to say, e.g., sell Euro with no time frame or trade construction and defend the recommendation by saying its a longer term trade, IMO. Who has the stomach to short EuroUSD futures at 1.0785 in April and hold the position for 6 to 12 months as the Euro goes to 1.134 in month 2 of the trade? Whereas if RP had given some timing/construction around the recommendation so as to be able to stay in the trade for 6-12 months that would have helped).
    • MS
      Marc S.
      30 June 2020 @ 16:15
      Hi, is there any slack account for Pro members or still a proposition ? Thanks
  • AH
    Attila H.
    2 June 2020 @ 13:51
    Thanks for the update. Can we also have a target price for Silver?
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      9 June 2020 @ 05:26
      Julian mentioned mid 16's / 17's in the near term and he mentioned targets of 20 and 30 running deeper into 2H20 (see his In Focus report). And I think this is specifically for SLV (as spot is already at 17.31 as I write this).
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    8 June 2020 @ 20:37
    wow julian seemed a lot less bullish on SLV today.
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    8 June 2020 @ 20:37
    wow julian seemed a lot less bullish on SLV today.
  • SM
    Shantanu M.
    4 June 2020 @ 23:11
    Looks like the mood of the market has taken a U-turn since this document got published. So many (except $/JPY) of Raoul's trades seem to have reversed in a major way.
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      5 June 2020 @ 14:25
      Yep, Julian has definitely had the better view of late! Does anyone have a theory as to why the Yen has dropped? Could it be intentional to boost exports?
    • SM
      Shantanu M.
      5 June 2020 @ 16:43
      @Anthony AFAIK Yen is the ultimate safe haven currency, so when market goes risk-on Yen tends to drop.
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      6 June 2020 @ 01:41
      Thank you so very much!
    • KH
      Kavi H.
      8 June 2020 @ 10:33
      I have read one analyst mention that there is a possibility that the Japanese Govt Pension Fund may be active in the market selling JGB's in exchange for offshore assets perhaps even equities? Hence the downward pressure on the Yen along side a massive rise in risk assets.
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    1 June 2020 @ 19:54
    the 5 year call spread has not expired....if Raoul already rolled it would be great to know it...
    • AK
      Adrian K.
      1 June 2020 @ 20:00
      Thought the same or maybe I chose the wrong expiry with Jun, 26
    • BF
      Brad F.
      2 June 2020 @ 07:44
      The recommended trade was May (although you had to dig through a lot of comments to find that). Raoul said he didn't roll and would try again when the 2yr breaks 15bps in his AMA.
    • MD
      Mike D.
      2 June 2020 @ 12:13
      So confusing. Brad F. - you point out that the recommended trade was May. Yet, Raoul's specific words in two of the comments to the April 23 "A Peek Into The Future" were: "Just to be clear... You buy 1x of the June 2020 126.5 calls and sell 1x of the June 2020 127.5 calls." and also, "Sorry, the expiry date on the call spread was June 2020" @Realvision - I fear that some of us are in an unintended trade due to lack of precision, clarity, and a single place to find definitive information. Please see my other comment in this stream for suggestions on ways to improve, thank you.
    • RH
      Rob H.
      2 June 2020 @ 13:44
      I just rolled it out to the Aug 20 - ZFU20 - 126.5 Call - Raoul has been clear on his thesis and if you believe in it and understand the payout of this trade you can afford to lose on it a couple of times. I figured things always take longer to play out then I think so I wanted more duration, thus the reason I picked Aug over July, you pay a little more for the time but the options time decay doesn't decay as fast as options with 30 days or less.
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      2 June 2020 @ 14:32
      I think this particular trade deserves a prize for the "Most Confusing Trade of 2020" :-) Just look at the amount of comments under the relevant In Focus report ! For the record, my own position is that the base case is still in tact. Combining from what I gained from my own research, twitter posts and comments here I added new trades on my Saxo platform with a 20 September expiration date. I added ZFU0 and OZF. I realize these are essentially the same trades, but I wanted to see how they performed, one being an Option and the other a Futures trade. Currently they are both in the green..let's see how it plays out.
    • DV
      Didier V.
      5 June 2020 @ 17:36
      If you give a trade recommendation at least explain the how to properly, if not don't give one.
  • SB
    Steve B.
    1 June 2020 @ 18:59
    Is Raoul rolling the 5 year note trade into later expiration?
    • DM
      Don M.
      1 June 2020 @ 19:12
      Does look like it at the moment. Interestingly everything else has the percentage loss, this just has OTM. Cute.
    • MD
      Mike D.
      1 June 2020 @ 19:28
      Spending too much time looking at the comment stream of the May 21 'All or Nothing' report, I find that Raoul answered this question with "Im thinking about re-loading too. We can afford to do this a few times and still make a lot of money." @Realvision ... Please consider this a suggestion and not a complaint ... you can probably see the frustration from numerous people in numerous comment streams. Piecing together trade advice from multiple sources, intimations during Meeting of the Minds sessions, and comments in comment streams is not working. These monthly summaries are very, very helpful but I think many of us would appreciate your taking this one step further. A slack channel for each trade perhaps? A restricted PHP board with a topic for discussion on each trade? Even a restricted wiki? There are numerous vehicles available, but I do think it's time to respect the ongoing lack of clarity which I see reflected from numerous people in the comment streams, all of whom seem to be acting in good faith. Thank you!
    • MO
      Matthew O.
      2 June 2020 @ 13:46
      Raoul/RV, Can you please let us know if Mike D's requested level of communication requires the blacklist subscription. It was even stated in an AMA that the blacklist subscribers were given a different trade strategy. Thats fine if that is the case, but it would be nice to to have clear expectations for each subscription level.
    • TH
      Trina H.
      3 June 2020 @ 17:47
      I think it's appalling the lack of instruction on this trade. I spent $5K on the trade which expired in late May. There was never an update saying what we should do with it so mine expired. Even figuring out what he meant by June expiry was confusing. People posted questions that were never answered when the original trade was recommended. If trades are recommended, there should be more description to it than 5 or 6 words. And there should be updates if the trades are expiring on what to do. Unhappy customer.
    • MC
      Michael C.
      5 June 2020 @ 09:19
      For those of us that bought longer dated options (Aug).. would love to get an update here on whether this (the 5 yr call spread bet) is still in tact. Given the slight sell off in the past couple of days it would be great to know if it's time to load up the truck.
  • SN
    SAT N.
    2 June 2020 @ 17:02
    How about creating a slack channel for Realvision Pro members? It would add tremendous value to Pro membership. I understand it is challenging for the RV team to address all the questions posted here. Most are typically unanswered. This can be easily addressed by creating a slack channel where members help each other. We probably have a fairly knowlegeable set of members, who will be able to answer many mundane questions regarding how to execute a particular trade idea, etc. It would also help the community hand-hold each other as we navigate these turbulent times. I don't see a downside to Slack. If there are any, please let me (us) know.
    • JZ
      Jason Z.
      4 June 2020 @ 06:49
      Great suggestion. We are beginning development on some community features that we think will get you the type of interaction you're requesting.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      4 June 2020 @ 13:15
      yeah I made this suggestion as well on the survey that was distributed. It would be great to have some type of community features on here. Especially if we got notifications when others comment/interact with our comments etc. It would add a TON of extra value if we had a chat forum for pro members
  • BO
    Batubay O.
    2 June 2020 @ 19:15
    Hi. Do you take into account the carry costs into the analysis of FX trades in this PL file?
  • DT
    DEVON T.
    2 June 2020 @ 15:40
    For buying 10-year bonds is there an ETF that would work? My 401k only lets me buy ETF's. Thanks!
    • GD
      Gabriel D.
      2 June 2020 @ 16:10
      I've used IEF in the past.
  • vg
    vincent g.
    2 June 2020 @ 01:50
    Just subscribed, any suggestions if I should add any of the current trade ideas? How would you go about it? Thanks
    • BF
      Brad F.
      2 June 2020 @ 07:37
      I'm eyeing DBA for a possible late entry. I know Raoul is waiting for the right moment to put the 5yr note call spread back on.
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      2 June 2020 @ 14:21
      @BradF - not sure if you have already checked it out or not, but the Live Session with Mish Schneider has excellent insights into the DBA (and commodity) trade.
  • TK
    Tadej K.
    1 June 2020 @ 21:40
    I have subscribed to follow Raoul's portfolio. So my dilemma is following: When is the short EURUSD and GBPUSD gonna work again? What could be the trigger? And is the CNH the one that will go first? Raoul is long september CNH calls at 7.3 in his GMI portfolio (if I am not wrong). Is that still his high conviction trade? It seemed perfect in the middle of last week (especially if initiated a month ago), but after Trump has backed away on Friday (and today when he just ignored the news of China canceling agricultural orders that are part of his phase one trade deal) this trade has also disintegrated quite substantially. So what is the ONE still standing high conviction trade that is about to perform in the next months? We can buy new FV calls every month, we can still be short EUR, GBP, CNH, JPY but what is the event that can happen and move things in our direction? Because inertia is obviously killing us. And we still tolerate it. I mean I still believe in the insolvency phase playing out to some extent (my positions are for a large one in less than a year,(long eur puts, long jpy and cnh calls) so I really hope). But what/when can be expected to signal it coming (out of 2year negative yield) and reversing this painful trend of surging EUR, commodity currencies (CAD,AUD), stocks (even laggards last days (look to Spain today))? The coronavirus just looks to be becoming a non-topic in.most of the developed world right now. Maybe it will come back, maybe it wont. Has it done enough economic damage to cause insolvency phase? It can come back next season but chances are quite high that it will just morph in some more benign form or fade away. If we all overstated the impact that it will have (it looked very dangerous and now it just looks less when we see antibody studies data that shows how mortality is much lower than estimated), we should correct our views. The problem is that trading ideas with options requires quite a good timing (and the right direction is obviously also welcome). And quite a lot of my FX options bought in february (and unfortunately not sold in the middle of the march when they were quite golden) expired worthless in the last month. Well, the problem is also when spot position is moving against you with ridiculous intensity and you just don't get it and you look for benchmarks to look at to decide for how long to stay in the loosing position and possibly not be the last sucker holding the bag. Here we are. With a lot of spilled milk. Is the glass still worth of another refill (or two) and when?
    • BF
      Brad F.
      2 June 2020 @ 07:42
      I have wrestled with many of the same dilemmas when trading options and come the conclusion that any option positions should be a lottery ticket (~1% of my capital in premium) and that I need to manage it closely. You have a lot more time with a leveraged futures bet than an options bet and Raoul usually has a longer timeline making playing his theses with options very painful (unless that is the specific recommendation like short SPX in march - which was glorious).
  • DP
    Divyesh P.
    2 June 2020 @ 02:31
    Question: Can we start to include longer duration trades as I'm restricted from a) closing a position within 2 months including b) stop losses. c) includes ETFs
  • AB
    Arawata B.
    2 June 2020 @ 01:03
    JB nailing it!. Good to see the stop adjustments being updated too. Thanks
  • MP
    Marc P.
    1 June 2020 @ 19:27
    Hi Raoul, Is your view on the dollar the same? What would make you change your position? Cheers
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      1 June 2020 @ 20:52
      Alex Gurevich, in his May 19 interview with Raoul, gave the case for the milkshake theory having played out.
    • WM
      Will M.
      1 June 2020 @ 21:07
      I got out of the UUP trade with a small 2% profit rather than risk my six figure bet losing any money. I note that Mike Oliver at MSA believes $ is close to breaking down and Euro vice versa. I am watching closely for any pick up but I think it will require another major stock or bond panic to get DXY over Julian's 102 stop.