In Focus Trade Portfolio – May 1, 2020

Published on: May 1st, 2020

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publications or Flash Update.

Comments

  • MP
    Matthew P.
    21 May 2020 @ 20:14
    Hi all - Is the ZF (i.e. 5-year treasury options) trade still on? My June calls just expired worthless, and before entering a new position (potentially) I wanted to reach out to the community for some advice as to what timing (i.e. option date) I should choose. Or, should one leave this trade off the table for now (in terms of new positions)?
    • DA
      Daryan A.
      22 May 2020 @ 13:08
      Hi Matthew, when the trade came out I bought ZF June and July spreads. After the fact I saw a comment from Raoul (a few weeks ago) that it was good to extend the timing. I read another comment from Harry at RV that suggested the trade will require a couple of tries. Perhaps today’s q & a will clear it up? Certainly more direct updates with Pro members on this type of trade would have been helpful as timing is so critical in a changing landscape. I am new to macro-based investment strategy and options, so it’s quite the learning experience!
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      24 May 2020 @ 07:36
      Hey Daryan - many thanks for your reply! And I agree, I'm learning heaps, too. I messed up the ZF June trade (learning experience) because I purchased the June ZF, but missed the fact that the ZF June contract expires in May. So, I've re-loaded at a contract expiry for July (which is an August option).
  • SY
    Sandeep Y.
    12 May 2020 @ 18:06
    I am new here.Can someone help me what it means to sell EUR? which instrument should we use for that? Thanks in advance
    • SY
      Sandeep Y.
      12 May 2020 @ 22:09
      Is it /6E futures? if so what time frame?
    • SM
      Shantanu M.
      19 May 2020 @ 21:43
      You can just buy EUO as a way to short Euro. It has options too.
  • SM
    Shantanu M.
    19 May 2020 @ 21:36
    I am sure you guys read about the France, Germany announcement today regarding the 500 billion EU bond to boost the economy against the pandemic. If it happens isn't this heading towards a fiscal union? If so, do you still expect the EUR to break? I am guessing it it happens then spreads tighten all across Eurozone bonds and some money flows into EU from across the Atlantic.
  • RM
    Rohin M.
    19 May 2020 @ 10:48
    Hi - what are Raoul's thoughts on the announcement by Germany and France regarding the E500bn recovery fund. Does this alter his thesis on the EUR/USD trade? Does he have a stop loss on this trade?
  • SY
    Sandeep Y.
    18 May 2020 @ 23:34
    hello RV staff.. Can someone produce a content for newbies on how to take these trades like 5Yr treasury intereset rates or selling the EUR/USD safely. It will be very much helpful for folks like me :)
  • PH
    Pundit H.
    18 May 2020 @ 11:22
    Hi RV staff - is there a target for Julian's Silver trade? I haven't seen it mentioned and be good to know especially as Silver has been v positive last few sessions.
  • IP
    Ivo P.
    15 May 2020 @ 16:28
    Can someone here please explain how to construct the Eurodollar Futures or 5Y Treasury butterfly trade that Raoul cited with Hugh Hendry two weeks ago? All I see is Raoul's portfolio is a simple 5Y Treasury spread. Thanks
  • JW
    John W.
    14 May 2020 @ 01:53
    On the 5yr call spread, if % return on just the option premium amount is not a meaningful number (ie -50%+ on option that is expiring worthless) then the same standards should apply to HYG and SPX puts that show 200+% returns. Between this and bitcoin dollar cost averaging, there are sizing assumptions behind these P&L numbers that are not communicated at entry (nobody, other than the fed, has unlimited capacity to add on to losing trades), leaving room for many trades to look rosier than what most of us will realize. In these portfolio updates, I believe there should be a model/sample portfolio with sizes of trades shown so that the return calculations, conviction level, funding source of add-on etc are all clear and intellectually honest. This doesn't stop readers from making their own adjustments based on individual risk level and views.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    1 May 2020 @ 14:06
    I think there is a typo. There is no way that the 5 year trade is only down -5.46% since April 23rd. I am down 50%
    • DE
      Daniel E.
      1 May 2020 @ 14:39
      Yeah, I am down like 28% or something like that.. Please re-check this. Also a lot of the dates look incorrect on the report.
    • MS
      Moritz S.
      1 May 2020 @ 15:33
      Depending on the time they wrote up the report might very well be the case.
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      1 May 2020 @ 16:48
      I'd be curious to learn about this as well since the minimum price fluctuation in the spread is 1/4 of a 64th (if one leg moves 1/2 of a 64th but the other leg is unchanged). This translates to a minimum fluctuation of 6.25%. I wonder if Bloomberg quotes in decimal or calculates the mid point so you can get a theoretically smaller figure?
    • JM
      John M.
      1 May 2020 @ 16:52
      I am noticing GDX appears here with April 3rd entry. It wasn't a trade recommendation on April 1, although Julian did mention it in the video. It wasn't a recommendation in the April 9th update, although Julian was positive on it in the comments. It did pop up un the April 17th report, so it feels like this is really a trade as of April 17th?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 May 2020 @ 14:24
      Remember - options are sized allowing you to lose the premium without hurting your portfolio. So, you need to think of them in terms of risk rewards e.g. I'll risk 1% of my portfolio and look to make X %. Treating options as a stock and looking at percentages is how to go broke.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      10 May 2020 @ 12:31
      Yes, this doesnt make sense. Will look into it.
  • JE
    Jon E.
    8 May 2020 @ 15:33
    Do we let the ZF calls run? Seems to be working for now (I got in late) fortunately :). Thanks
    • JW
      JW2 W.
      8 May 2020 @ 16:35
      The case for this (lower to negative rates) is gaining steam so I think letting it run makes sense - I also spotted Raoul on twitter making what I interpreted as similar comments. https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1258207718164312065
  • J
    JP .
    8 May 2020 @ 07:27
    which instrument do you recommend to trade silver
  • CH
    Christoph H.
    7 May 2020 @ 05:10
    Raoul, I have a question, since it is looking like deflation is coming. I hold quite a big chunk of my portfolio in physical gold. Do you believe Gold is going to sell off hard, when DXY spikes? It was sold off last time a bit -- but recovered fast. There are theorys out there that it could drop as much as 900-1300 USD. And take long to return and then finally explode upwards.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      7 May 2020 @ 19:12
      I think its going to be fine because the answer is more printing of money...
  • KK
    KeQiu K.
    5 May 2020 @ 16:42
    As I understand, rising real rates is a negative for gold, can someone explain why Raoul sees real rates rising yet still bullish on gold? Is the argument rising real rate in a recession leads to compounding debt issues in a leveraged economy, causing even slower growth, thus putting the faith in USD in jeopardy, which ultimately would benefit gold? Thanks for the clarification!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      7 May 2020 @ 02:03
      Gold is positive because real rates going up in a recession means more action from central banks which lowers the value of fiat currency
  • DB
    David B.
    4 May 2020 @ 22:16
    A question from today's Insider Talks (since the comment section there isn't working): Since UUP is mostly Euro, would adding a short EM equity fund (EUM) be a good proxy for strong dollar? Monthly correlation is 0.64. I also use USDU rather than UUP which is a much larger basket of currencies, but the liquidity isn't great. Monthly correlation between USDU and EUM is 0.69. Thanks!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      4 May 2020 @ 23:56
      Im not in love with shorting equities but as you suggest, it might work. Maybe 1/3 EM and 2/3 UUP
    • HM
      Hazvinei M.
      6 May 2020 @ 23:36
      Just an FYI - EUM is 76.8% Asia with 38% China, 13% TW and 12% SKR. The BRICS ex-China are 18.5%. Of the top 10 holdings--14% Tech (BABA, Tencent, and Naspers), 9% semis (TW Semi, Samsung, Reliance, 3% Chinese Financials. It's not screaming the EM exposure to dollar pressure. TW and South Korea have swap line access, China has enough tools to wage war without swap line access, and potential has internally financed its corporate USD debt, which means they can eat pain for a while. Another thing about the holdings, NASPERS for example is really a discount play on China via their 74% holding of Prosus (the European HoldCo) which in turn holds 30% of Tencent; DSTV and the tech plays in SA are attributed basically a value of zero. BTW, almost all the EM funds are this way because of the MSCI index bias towards Asia, Tech and China as well as sponsor laziness (maybe). You may be better off assembling a basket of country ETFs. I like targets like FM, KSA(oil ad big $ import bill), EZA (Naspers is 30% here), NGE. Liquidity is a big issue the further you move away from Asia.
  • PA
    Peder A.
    6 May 2020 @ 16:06
    Help Please. Is it only me getting ettor when trying watching most recent Raoul and Julian live May? Or has it not yet aired?
    • PA
      Peder A.
      6 May 2020 @ 21:29
      *error
  • JM
    James M.
    6 May 2020 @ 11:33
    As a UK national I'm finding it impossible to buy EWW, XME & DBA as they do not have KIDs, even IB won't let me trade them. Can anyone suggest other reasonable approximates of these etfs?
    • AM
      A M.
      6 May 2020 @ 20:38
      J, We need to lobby to get this changed. Even TLT is not allowed! An example of the EU being a bureaucratic nuisance! Over 18 means we are adults. Let's try and get rid of the nanny knows best rules.
  • DM
    Dan M.
    5 May 2020 @ 21:57
    Hey. Is the latest LIVE Insider’s Talk from yesterday up to view or is it just me?!
  • TR
    Tommy R.
    3 May 2020 @ 04:18
    Hey guys, where does one go if you want to trade exotic/non-major FX options? Cheers
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 May 2020 @ 14:26
      Saxo.
    • AP
      Aneil P.
      3 May 2020 @ 18:45
      what about think or swim?
    • TR
      Tommy R.
      4 May 2020 @ 05:45
      Seems Saxo is not doing biz with US citizens, so if anyone knows an alternative please let me know.
    • MJ
      Mike J.
      4 May 2020 @ 15:28
      Saxo doesn't take clients from USA
  • JL
    J L.
    2 May 2020 @ 14:13
    the entry price of long bitcoin has been different in the last three portfolio updates and is now magically a winning trade, BTC was ticking above 11k on Jun 23rd
    • FK
      Forest K.
      2 May 2020 @ 14:48
      Raoul must be DCAing, which would bring the total cost down.
    • RE
      Raymond E.
      2 May 2020 @ 21:21
      According to my records, bitcoin was at US$10,843 on June 23rd, NOT $8677 as reported in the current "In Focus Trade Portfolio." Since more than one entry point was involved in this trade, each should be listed separately.
    • rt
      remi t. | Founder
      3 May 2020 @ 10:53
      Hi There, entry price has changed because Raoul recommended on March 18th to add bitcoin to the current position. You can see trade rec at the bottom of this: https://www.realvision.com/issues/taking-profits?source_collection=1c85a7e546194180b5c665d81abd2215
    • JL
      J L.
      3 May 2020 @ 16:42
      with all respect, in terms of tracking double downs should not be allowed unless a half position was recommended in the first place, else any position can be made to look good
    • RE
      Raymond E.
      3 May 2020 @ 23:10
      Under trade recommendations, "Sell GBP" is listed twice, once on August 1 and once on March 18, with appropriately different entry prices for each of those dates -- that's the way to do it. And is what should be done for bitcoin. I much appreciate the monthly portfolio updates, and there is room for small improvements/corrections.
  • AP
    Aneil P.
    3 May 2020 @ 18:42
    Raoul.P we should look at Sweden to analyze the macroeconomic impact of COVID. Should help us extrapolate consumer behavior and how it might impact the macro economy in the longer run.
  • BJ
    Brandon J.
    1 May 2020 @ 17:50
    I was able to get the 5 year spread on the September contract at 4/64ths with a 6/26 expiration. If anyone wants to roll for a extra month you might take a look.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 May 2020 @ 14:20
      Yes, rolling out is a good idea...
    • GD
      Gabriel D.
      3 May 2020 @ 16:02
      Trying to figure out how a little retail investor can do this trade, I'm using Interactive Brokers, are these instruments available there? How do I trade them?
  • PA
    Peder A.
    2 May 2020 @ 07:15
    What am I missing. Here there is a Sell DXY (USD) and other USD bear trades. I was under the impression Raoul is strongly USD bullish and recommended long USD/EUR in the last piece.
    • CF
      Chris F.
      2 May 2020 @ 11:51
      Julian recommended sell DXY, not Raoul
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 May 2020 @ 14:26
      I am bullish, Julian is bearish. This can happen from time to time. It is sometimes a big view difference but more often than not, it is time horizon. Remember - my time horizon is loooong. This is where I have found my best edge over the last 30 years. I don't trade shorter term unless there is a very defined opportunity.
  • MS
    Malcolm S.
    1 May 2020 @ 22:47
    Why don't the Fed want low (negative inflation) and high real rates? Surely lower prices are good for the consumer? Is it because it's bad for corporations?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 May 2020 @ 14:24
      High real rates is a tightening of financial conditions, making it harder to service debts. They really, really don't want this...
  • BP
    Bill P.
    1 May 2020 @ 14:58
    It would be helpful to include Stop price in addition to Entry price on all open trades - is this something you wouldn't mind adding?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 May 2020 @ 14:21
      I don't use stops. As investors you all have different risk tolerances so the stops and trade sizing needs to be your own for this to work responsibly.
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    1 May 2020 @ 18:48
    We should be notified of trades shortly after execution, not weeks later in the month-end report. The GDX trade was done on 4/3.
    • FT
      Fabian T.
      2 May 2020 @ 07:53
      Couldn’t agree more as this is also what we pay for with a pro membership as most of the general views can also read on Twitter for free... Thanks
    • CS
      Craig S.
      2 May 2020 @ 14:43
      Given current market volatility, trade are uninvestable by us weeks after Julian/Raoul's trades. We missed the upside in several in this May 1st report. Also, we could enter these trades later in May, not knowing their case for the trade is near changing until June 1. Julian/Raoul, I do love your thinking. Would greatly appreciated much quicker trade updates in PRO. Not sure PRO really lives up to its name & price with monthly reports.
    • JH
      Joseph H.
      2 May 2020 @ 18:37
      Hoping someone at RV will respond to this and remedy it in the future.
    • JK
      James K.
      2 May 2020 @ 20:25
      Julian gave the buy GDX on a video call with Raul ... It was actually almost an aside suggestion, only caught my ear because I was already long looking to add to a long position ... But agree would be nice to get a message every time a trade is recommended.... Actually it should be standard procedure... IMO
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 May 2020 @ 14:20
      Thanks. I will make sure that any tree recommendations are CLEARLY stated. In this case, it was not clear and i apologise for that. Also, with regards to quicker trade updates - as a macro service we tend to be longer term and are not a trading service. This means less frequent trades but longer holding periods. This is where we believe the alpha lies in the world of machines trading every tick.
  • JA
    Johnny A.
    2 May 2020 @ 22:01
    No trades for this month? It doesn't really help much to see suggestions for entries that have long since passed.
    • RE
      Raymond E.
      3 May 2020 @ 02:09
      It is intended as a record of what was (previously) recommended and how such has performed -- which I actually find quite helpful.
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    1 May 2020 @ 18:48
    We should be notified of trades shortly after execution, not weeks later in the month-end report. The GDX trade was done on 4/3.
  • JY
    Jayson Y.
    1 May 2020 @ 17:22
    Would be helpful to include your portfolio weightings or at least a view on relative conviction of each trade so subscribers can easily see in one place your asset allocation/propensity for trade to pay off (even if generalized)