Meeting Of Minds – June 2019

Published on: June 28th, 2019

Raoul’s extended Meeting of Minds piece this month consists of two pieces he provided to his institutional client base in GMI at the beginning of June. In it he continued to press on his expectations of US domestic and international slowdown, easing monetary policy and falling global bond yields.


  • SC
    Shiny C.
    30 June 2019 @ 03:26
    Hi Raoul, is there any particular reason that 2Yo2Y% is used (in Libor & Fed BS) instead of any other durations? Thanks!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      6 July 2019 @ 10:59
      After extensive work, it seems to best fit the economic cycle over time.
    • BR
      Brian R.
      20 July 2019 @ 01:24
      He meant datamining
  • AP
    Alexander P.
    14 July 2019 @ 11:55
    First post on RV MI....Think the piece is spot on and just have to wait for it all to shake out -agree it could be soon. GFC was well underway in Feb 07 starting w New Century, but took another 1.5yrs to fully bake. Additional piece of the puzzle that will be fuel for the fire is bond market liquidity (there is none). I-banks have GUTTED trading dept's and won't/can't act as market makers as they did in the GFC. In 2014/2015, when oil crashed, $bn bond issues were trading down in points on 3 lot transactions. When this all plays out, there will very little liquidity for fallen angels, HY, CLO's, Structured Products, etc...the places where you had to go for any yield the past 5yrs...
  • YW
    YM W.
    1 July 2019 @ 09:42
    Great piece Raoul! Do you not think the Fed has woken up to the fragility of this complex system after the December scare? Do you not think that a preemptive rate cut by the Fed could kick the can for long enough for a trade deal to be made between US and China? Presumably this could delay Phase 2 of you Doom Cycle for a lot longer than people would expect.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      6 July 2019 @ 10:58
      I dont think the Fed cut is preemptive3, I think its too late..
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    2 July 2019 @ 12:44
    Raoul, With your 24 and 36 month leading indicators flashing red, when does one start to execute trades that will take advantage of this scenario that you have painted?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      6 July 2019 @ 10:57
      For GMI, I have trades on already, for MI - I'd waiting until we start to see the credit market turn. Just uses HYG as your guide.
  • PN
    Paul N.
    3 July 2019 @ 09:14
    Alternative Scenario to the Doom Loop: Every time the market threatens a fall the Fed uses aggressive QE and provides emergency liquidity to stop it, matching the outflows from retirees and preventing a wider crisis. We end up in a drawn out zombie period where the Fed effectively funds the retirements of the boomer generation and rates remain at near zero. This keeps happening until political instability (MMT?) overturns the whole cart.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    29 June 2019 @ 15:45
    Everybody... a question: Given what Raoul has laid out, do you think TLT be a safe way to own bonds for awhile? Thanks
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      1 July 2019 @ 03:09
      I’m staying away from Bonds until one of two things occurs 1. Raoul gives the all clear in a flash update because we’ve had a bounce in yields 2. The Fed doesn’t cut in July and yields bounce because so many cuts are priced in
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      2 July 2019 @ 00:21
      Thank you, Daniel. Good thinking. good plan.
    • JL
      J L.
      2 July 2019 @ 20:40
      Daniel I am not that conviced 10Y+ yields will bounce if there is no cut, this stuff can work backwards
  • RH
    Rob H.
    1 July 2019 @ 19:15
    I read an article on Wolf Street and he brought up this argument for the fed to be patient for longer. "Let me just throw this out there for us to kick around: The Fed has already accomplished more with its verbiage so far this year than it had in the past when it actually cut rates multiple times, all the way down to near zero, and did trillions of dollars of QE. We’re already seeing the first results." He points out we have already seen the 10-year yields get crushed to 2%. So might we have to wait a little longer than July for the first rate cut? Maybe they do disappoint in July since rates are down and inflation data has also ticked up as well. Maybe this is your reason for getting us out of the bond trades for now.
    • HO
      H2 O.
      1 July 2019 @ 20:39
      Agree in principal, financial conditions in the US have eased much more than the GS series cited in RP’s piece indicate. But, not cutting in July would be as much of a mistake as the last rate increase. They may cut pause cut, rather than cut cut cut, so they can try to maintain some semblance of credibility. This piece is too bearish on the US economy and cycle.
    • KA
      Kelly A.
      2 July 2019 @ 00:23
      Rob, love your thinking on this. And Josh Brown on CNBC also has warned about making bets by predicting the Fed for July. Thank you.
  • MB
    Markus B.
    1 July 2019 @ 14:30
    Raoul, relevant indeed. The Chinese PMI reading of 49.4 supports your outlook on the Chinese economy. The US ISM Manufacturing reading of 51.7 was firmer than many expected. I know it is a number you and Julian follow closely. Any comment or reference from your side appreciated, here or in Insider Talks.
  • ZW
    ZH W.
    1 July 2019 @ 08:13
    Fantastic piece, Raoul! I can see your high conviction in this long bonds trade, i.e. despite the recent run of bond, you believe market *still* hasn't fully priced in how much and how fast the Fed is going to cut. Julian seems to have somewhat different views. Can't wait for these month's Insider Talks when you two discuss this topic! Again, great work. Really appreciate it.
  • FO
    Frederic O.
    30 June 2019 @ 10:48
    Epic food for thought! This is an article worth paying for. Do you or anybody else have an idea of the timing for when the dollar will go vertical? It did in mid July 2008, about one or two weeks after the FED paused on their cuts. I’m thinking that as soon as they hit zero on the rates, that the same will happen this time around.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    29 June 2019 @ 20:58
    I keep thinking about this amazing piece from Raoul. One question: IF USA and China can reach some kind of trade accord fairly soon, does most of the argument for serious worldwide economic slowdown evaporate? --at least a bit? [Yes, retiring Boomers will have some affect even and USA-China get along, but isn't nearly so impactful on markets without a USA-China disruption.]
  • JS
    J S.
    29 June 2019 @ 13:13
    Thanks for sharing. Since May 31st, there has been a pretty significant bounce in most assets/charts. Does that changes your timeline and/or perspective?
  • ab
    amit b.
    29 June 2019 @ 04:12
    All great. Date at bottom should be 2019!
  • RM
    R M.
    29 June 2019 @ 01:35
    This looks like a great weekend read, thanks! For Julian and Raoul, was just reading about the EU announcement on INSTEX, their new system to trade around SWIFT. I may be misreading this, but at first blush it appears to be a big middle finger to Trump and the dollar. I am hoping one of you guys covers this in the next piece. It seems the world is finding a way around all the US pushing and shoving. I would also assume T will not take it lightly. Looking forward to it!
  • JS
    John S.
    29 June 2019 @ 00:32
    Love it!
  • DS
    David S.
    28 June 2019 @ 21:46
    Wow, epic read Raoul.. I've been puzzling gold as another play on all this for a while. Rates going negative, potentially more QE, etc. and recent gold breakout get me excited. But dollar screaming higher and oil potentially tanking make me very nervous. What a puzzle...
  • KB
    Keith B.
    28 June 2019 @ 19:44
    Fantastic Raoul, great read. thanks
  • MS
    Mark S.
    28 June 2019 @ 19:00
    Thanks for your great work Raoul. Cheers.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.