Part 3: The Everything Code

Published on: June 27th, 2023

In Part 1: and Part 2: of this series, I laid out both the set-up for where we are, and where I think we might be going. Now we have an appreciation of what is going on and why, I’m going to bring it all together…


  • ES
    Eric S.
    27 June 2023 @ 16:33
    Just fantastic analysis. The valuation formula has changed through the fourth turning. Great appreciation for this report. Very thankful.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    27 June 2023 @ 18:04
    Thanks for this update Raoul, incredible. You just have to be marginally correct in order to make some incredible returns. Well done.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 June 2023 @ 13:43
      Exactly... assume Im 50% wrong and it still works.
  • RD
    27 June 2023 @ 18:19
    F*#KING GENIUS pea brain has been enlarged and I may have left the idiot corner, but don't hold me to that! Seriously, thank you for sharing...WoW, great stuff. Cheers!!!!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 June 2023 @ 13:43
  • MR
    Michael R.
    27 June 2023 @ 18:54
    What's the odds of the extra liquidity being added such that inflation doesn't run away - isn't that how MMT says it should work? Or can someone correct me. Would that then support the 2 most sensitive asset classes appreciation?
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      28 June 2023 @ 13:20
      This is the part that I struggle with. While I agree with the overall end game having to be the fed monetizes debt I just dont understand how that can happen anytime soon. What I find interesting is the fed has cover in the failure of 3 regional banks and decided to hike 50bp after instead of using that as a reason to pause all together. The end result will have to be Raouls road map I just get hung up on the price level or at least from what point in the cycle. A fed cutting rates and doing QE with this back drop seems unlikely. I remember Raoul calling for rate cuts by summer and instead we have added an extra 25bp. I would be interested in what he thinks would happen if his inflation outlook is wrong over the next 6-9 months? If it remains annoyingly sticky how does this influence your chain of events. I think we all agree on the end game but the disagreement lies in how and when we get there.
  • JW
    27 June 2023 @ 19:11
    This also fits perfectly with land price cycles and the forecast bust in 2026. Interesting that two completely different methodologies give the same results. I think you’re bang on.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 June 2023 @ 13:42
  • JM
    John M.
    27 June 2023 @ 20:20
    Agree that if the feds balance sheet is going to increase ~50% to ~$12T, that would be pretty supportive to asset prices. Where I am struggling is why the fed would start dramatically increasing its balance sheet now before '25? If inflation has not been credibly under control, can the fed afford to do this? Would there not need to be some pain for the federal budget and economy first? From what I see at least. I have some doubts inflation is under control - housing prices are starting to rise around here, tech companies hiring, restaurants full with much higher prices etc. I don't see how the fed can go to QE without some significant economic pain first. What am I missing?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 June 2023 @ 13:43
      Pour Business Cycle dominoes piece clarifies this and why those things are lagging and forward indicators show a collapse in inflation
  • AK
    Alexander K.
    27 June 2023 @ 20:26
    Mind blowing
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 June 2023 @ 13:42
  • AJ
    Alexander J.
    27 June 2023 @ 20:35
    Thanks Raoul, how these all converge on 2025 indicates planning on a grand scale
  • Bd
    Bram d.
    27 June 2023 @ 22:35
    Great piece of thinking. Much appreciated. What unforeseen element needs to break for this not to be directionally correct?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      28 June 2023 @ 13:42
      No stimulus for some reason I don't yet understand (how do they pay the interest on the debt??) but as per the AMA, equities and crypto should still rise but less so.
  • PS
    Patrick S.
    29 June 2023 @ 11:00
    Great thesis, let's maybe not called it code yet. I am struggling how a strong USD/DXY fits into this picture. What's the economic rationale behind that?
  • KV
    Kimberly V.
    2 July 2023 @ 20:26
    This maybe the most thought provoking and compelling piece of investment research I’ve ever read. I’m excited to see how the thesis plays out. Bets placed and popcorn in hand. :) Thank you Raoul for your continued commitment to your craft and for allowing Pro Macro members a peek behind the curtain. Cheers!
  • RU
    Rahim U.
    4 July 2023 @ 03:39
    Thank you. Amazing insight
  • RS
    Ravinder S.
    7 July 2023 @ 20:54
    Thank you! amazing
  • AH
    Anthony H.
    8 July 2023 @ 05:17
    This is amazing. Thanks Raoul. When you say to 20x to 45x in ETH what date did you write that? This article might have saved me from selling too early in the next bull run,..
  • AT
    Anthony T.
    18 July 2023 @ 06:33
    Ive been re-reading this great and thought provoking report. It's as exciting as anything given the huge implications of having a sensible ability to forecast a cycle based on significant correlations established since the new world order was established post 2008. I would appreciate the community's support in helping me get straight in my head the difference between the rate of change of the central bank balance sheets around which the hypothesis pivots and changes in net liquidity. I suspect its simple, but as broker I was always there to tell the story in an effective way; the difficult work was done by the analysts who built the models, etc :-) Thanks for your help...
  • mc
    mark c.
    7 August 2023 @ 09:16
    amazing crisis by design-goldman alums took over the treasury first-then caused the GFC to grab the FED. is the PBOC in on the grift? the concept that i can't make clear is-- is debt default going to be inflationary (MOAR) or deflationary(dollar wreaking ball). the great debt reset will just be an artifact of the end of fiat currencies as we move to stateless digital barter.