Pressure Drop

Published on: March 11th, 2021

Loose Money, Loose Fiscal, Bubbling Inflation, Bond Vigilantes Stirring. All Common Knowledge? If some pressure comes off as bond yields pause, it will be time to increase risk and tighten stops on NDX shorts. Julian makes the case for adding back Gold exposure and scouting around for value. Three suggestions for the radar. Fingers on triggers post FOMC this week.


  • rm
    roland m.
    17 March 2021 @ 21:23
    "GDX: Buy ½ below $33. First target $41. Stop on close below $30. Add ½ on strength" How would you suggest thinking about the "on strength" part? Something like halfway between 33 and 41 in combination with the advance being sort of confident without intermediate fallbacks to 33 or below?
    • SS
      Sameer S.
      22 March 2021 @ 19:07
      You could use daily moving averages to gauge strength, adding on closes above them.
  • SC
    Sanjeev C.
    12 March 2021 @ 05:12
    Thanks Julian. Please share your thoughts on pros & cons of GDX vs. GDXJ for a position in miners?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 March 2021 @ 13:08
      I asked him and this is what he wrote. "Given that the components of GDX are senior miners (like Barrick, Anglo etc) and the components of GDXJ are juniors (none of which are really household names) GDXJ tends to be materially more volatile. Realised volatility for GDXJ (100 day) is usually mid 40% and GDX mid to high 30%. There is an embedded assumption (not true for all members) that there is a higher gearing to the gold price for the juniors, giving more upside leverage. The theory has not really been born out by the experience since the beginning of the Gold bull market in Jan 2016, but may still at incrementally higher levels of spot Gold.
    • ly
      lena y.
      13 March 2021 @ 21:15
      Besides being major and junior miners between GDX and GDXJ, GDXJ has higher silver miners content.
    • SC
      Sanjeev C.
      18 March 2021 @ 19:52
      Thanks for the response
  • GP
    Greg P.
    12 March 2021 @ 05:28
    Hi Julian, Can you advise on your risk management of taking a 1/2 position on Gold by way of an example. If I have a $100K portfolio / trading account, as an example, what would you recommend as a recommendable risk on this trade based on your parameters in your report? 1%, 2%, or 5% of your portfolio? Trying to assess what is a worthy risk of a 1/2 position. Thanks, Greg
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 March 2021 @ 12:18
      Hi Greg. I will pass on your question to JB, but I can tell you that JB operates with the idea that his "book" or portfolio will usually have between 8-12 ideas or trades. It is more of a book than a portfolio. The trades are not meant to be the entire universe of all investment positions for readers. Not a "portfolio". Instead they are a book of ideas that JB likes. They are meant to make money on an absolute return basis - not "outperform". Optimal position sizing depends entirely on YOUR risk preferences and tolerances. If you were comfortable trading in gold then you might choose a bigger position size. Less comfortable then a smaller one. Ultimately you are the one risking your capital so you have to be comfortable with the sizing. But what JB had in mind was that the position should be of a size where you can add to it if it starts to work, and where the stop is not a unacceptably large loss of capital. JB is concerned that if Powell allows (or encourages bond yields to trend higher then gold may have further to fall). I would be very uncomfortable giving you more specific advice regarding what is an acceptable risk for you because it requires such an intimate understanding of your personal circumstances. However % position size alone is not everything. The volatility of the position is also important, and the risk characteristics of the way you take the position. Using 5% of your capital as margin in a long option trade is one thing. 5% as margin on a long futures trade another.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      12 March 2021 @ 17:24
      Harry, your response is worthy of dressing up and posting somewhere permanent, for all new Pro subscribers to view, and a good reminder for the rest of us. Thanks.
    • ly
      lena y.
      13 March 2021 @ 21:18
      In general, should commodities asset allocation be less than country funds since commodities are more volatile?
    • GP
      Greg P.
      15 March 2021 @ 19:22
      Hi Harry, Thank you very much for your commentary and suggestions. I'm looking at futures and not options so yes, the risk management is considerably different. I can fully appreciate that you can't possibly offer a position size as you don't know my personal and financial circumstances. Julian mentioned in the last insider talk that one of the MI clients paid off their mortgage with his Silver trade recommendation, which he thought was considerably risky, and he also appears to have a conservative risk management framework around his trade ideas. I'm therefore interested to get a clear sense of Julian's full risk management framework, including position sizing and volatility, that I could use as a benchmark to measure and develop my own framework specific to taking positions on the MI portfolio. I hope that offers further clarity, and if Julian is willing to elaborate on his risk framework I would be most interested to know and learn. Thanks, Greg
    • GP
      Greg P.
      15 March 2021 @ 19:34
      Hi Harry, I would also like to ask whether Julian ever measures his conviction around his trade ideas? For example, when he makes a trade recommendation what is his level of conviction and confidence that his trade ideas will play out favourably...that would certainly assist with establishing a clear framework around position sizing and risk on MI trade recommendations.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 March 2021 @ 17:42
      "Julian mentioned in the last insider talk that one of the MI clients paid off their mortgage with his Silver trade recommendation, which he thought was considerably risky, and he also appears to have a conservative risk management framework around his trade ideas. I'm therefore interested to get a clear sense of Julian's full risk management framework, including position sizing and volatility, that I could use as a benchmark to measure and develop my own framework specific to taking positions on the MI portfolio. I hope that offers further clarity, and if Julian is willing to elaborate on his risk framework I would be most interested to know and learn." Sorry for the delay getting back on this. Yes, JB was horrified by that letter. It meant the client was almost definitely taking too much risk! Either that or his mortgage was way too small relative to his trading book!. So I dont know what your finance background is, but I would argue that JB is effectively running a book on VaR principles, but keeping a close eye on gross risk, and the possibility that volatility/correlations can change. In fact, the possibility that correlations switch sign is an opportunity as much of a risk. The ED trade we have talked about is a great example. EDs were becalmed. The Fed had claimed to have ruled out negative rates (although things can change) and fiscal stim was enormous. This trade was one that a careful trade might have put a lot of risk on, because short of a sea-change in the Feds view of negative rates, it was tough to lose much but there was a great chance to make a lot. I mention this cos it is instructive of where it might be ok to take bigger risks. Basically where you have a pretty good idea you have an asymmetric risk return profile. If I win I win big. If I lose, I lose small. Regardless of all of this, JB uses stops. Let me rephrase that. JB USES STOPS. Stops are what protects your wealth from being completely wrong. If you cant be completely wrong hats off to you. I can be completely wrong, and I have proved this on a number of occasions. Your conviction question is excellent. There are trades in which JB has higher than usual conviction. They also have stops. Cos those are the most dangerous trades. Everyone who has played poker knows what I mean. But for those that havnt, its the times when you are absolutely sure you are right that pose the greatest threat to your net worth. I dont have a farm, but if I did I would be very sparing in the times I would bet it. This is both a flaw in my trading and also its greatest strength. My errors do not take me out of the game or put my family at risk.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 March 2021 @ 17:46
      Lena Y. In general yes. But I can think of some counter examples. I am a subscriber in Realvision. A while back I watched a video on Uranium. I really liked the story and I liked the chart. So I bought some UUUU, and some CCJ. They have both done pretty well. The CCJ position was way too small, but I mis-sized the UUUU position and it was way too big. I got lucky. I sold some of it, when i realized my mistake, but the stock has done pretty well and I have a pretty chunky position. I have not sold anymore cos I really like the trade. But it is disproportionately big, and I now have a trailing stop. I also trade a lot of Argy debt. I wish I had more Uranium, and less Argy debt. For what little thats worth Lena
    • SC
      Sanjeev C.
      18 March 2021 @ 19:52
      All Good points @Harry M. I agree with Greg & others though - that adding a theoretical book size and then a position size relative to that book -- will add a tremendous amount of value on top what JB & RP are already providing. Thanks for your consideration! PS: It'd be nice to be able to subscribe to notifications on updates to conversations I am following/participating.
  • CB
    Charles B.
    12 March 2021 @ 16:25
    Juilan, in the phrase "break and daily close above 13,100" for the nasdaq stop, what satisfies the word "break"?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 March 2021 @ 17:29
      Its definitely broken above and closed above.
  • Am
    Alex m.
    12 March 2021 @ 23:01
    Hi Julian, if you get into the Shanghai comp, would EEM also work as a proxy?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      17 March 2021 @ 17:28
      A bit. EEM has a lot of Chinese exposure but its definitely not a pure Chinese play.
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    11 March 2021 @ 23:53
    I concur about gold support levels being hit. I have levels a bit lower than you under 1700 but they were hit and the trend line support also coincides in this case rather tidily. As for Nikkei I think you should be in. It had an inside day candle on the daily in the June futures that has broken out to the upside and rsi daily and hourly above 50 but not over bought.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 March 2021 @ 12:21
      Thanks Joseph. Very useful to share analysis. I share your view, although Nikkei is the very directional market. If S&P is going up, so is Nikkei. If it isnt its usually the case that Nikkei isnt either.
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      13 March 2021 @ 10:23
      Harry indeed there is that so folks should position size accordingly if trading both at the same time as there is some correlation but what I also find is due to the time zone difference of the main trading day they don’t move at exactly the same time so you can get a better trade entry in the futures market sometimes if the set up signal has formed but the market has not yet moved directionally (and that might also depend on economic news pending etc not just Asia desks opening times).
  • TC
    Tascha C.
    13 March 2021 @ 01:17
    This is succinct and insightful. Thanks Julian.
  • AP
    Adam P.
    12 March 2021 @ 03:52
    I like the Mexico call. I got in that one earlier today too.
  • LM
    Lawrence M.
    11 March 2021 @ 23:04
    Yes... finally, a green light to buy gold :)

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets.

Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office. Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation.

Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.

Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authored The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot on The New York Times Best Sellers list.

Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offering which utilizes a true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures, and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovative ways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring. James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy.

Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channel watched by over 80,000 people. In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years.

He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences.

Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full time journalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of human interest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched the Defiance podcast and DefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.

FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients. Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14. At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s clients. Prior to that, Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in which he aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltem oversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development.

Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem.

Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.