Pro Macro: Deep Dive – One Way or Another

Published on: June 27th, 2022

The interaction of the equity market with the Fed reaction function makes this one of the most challenging times for assessing likely stock market outcomes that Raoul has ever seen. However, he also notes that, one way or another, all outcomes lead to lower rates. This is why long bonds beats short equities.


  • JM
    Jake M.
    28 June 2022 @ 04:05
    Raoul, how do you see gold VS long bonds?
  • DD
    Donal D.
    28 June 2022 @ 08:20
    Great report and based on the charts it seems pretty clear that the ISM will roll over pretty dramatically which should force the Fed's hand if history is any predictor. What's the best way to put on this trade ? Is it as simple as going long TLT or is it better to use options or Eurodollar? Is it best to be in short rates or out at the 30 year end of the curve.
  • AH
    Allan H.
    28 June 2022 @ 13:33
    This is good work. Respectfully, no mention of crypto from RP coinciding with liquidations of crypto hedge(really??) funds and ridiculously bad CeFi businesses and a short bitcoin ETF being launched when BTC is down 70% suggests that a bottom is in.
    • JH
      Joseph H.
      28 June 2022 @ 20:34
      Crypto is covered in PRO MACRO: IN FOCUS – PEAK FEAR, Published on: June 20th, 2022 This report follows on from that one.
  • AL
    Ashley L.
    28 June 2022 @ 16:20
    I am confused, when was this report written and what tier do you have to be to see the report when it is written? The charts are weeks out of date. I must be missing something.
    • ML
      Michael L.
      29 June 2022 @ 02:22
      It was first published on Global Macro Investor at the start of June.
    • VM
      Veliko M.
      28 June 2022 @ 22:03
      Second that. Otherwise good report.
  • MG
    Mauricio G.
    29 June 2022 @ 01:20
    NDX getting flat out rejected so far this week off the 150 week; looking more like a 2001
    • MG
      Mauricio G.
      29 June 2022 @ 01:40
    • MG
      Mauricio G.
      29 June 2022 @ 01:39
      Highly recommend watching Alfanso and Michael Kao's discussion on Fed and market paths in probabilities in engineering bear steepeners across risk free vs riskier yield curves
  • DT
    Daniel T.
    29 June 2022 @ 02:10
    Bravo. Learned a lot from this piece. Would love to see some suggestions of trades and how they would be expected to perform if executed in the different permutations of your analysis. I think something like that that would be valuable and help me further my understanding of how macro works (when it behaves). Stay keto my fren.
  • JJ
    JW2 J.
    29 June 2022 @ 10:50
    Very interesting to see the stark difference of opinion re whether inflation will disappear vs secular inflation, and both sides have well articulated and compelling reasons. Same with the Fed. Pivot based on historical responses to ISM levels. Or persist and create a deeper recession and potentially a credit crisis (Powell's version of the economy being strong allows him to keep hiking. Again in stark contrast to some of the charts re household sentiment and balance sheets.) Difficult to assess what is right or wrong and maybe the reality is more complex and we get some unforeseen geo-political shock throwing everything into further confusion. Tricky.
  • MD
    Michael D.
    29 June 2022 @ 16:49
    Great analysis as always and I do appreciate getting recycled GMI content HOWEVER I would really appreciate if the piece could be edited and updated so that it isn't so obviously just a reprint, especially when there is a lot of commentary on weekly DeMark's etc which are (now) a month out of date. Don't get me wrong, I still get value from the piece, but I also feel somewhat disrespected.
  • RL
    Randy L.
    29 June 2022 @ 23:57
    I'm sorry, what is SMT ? Also, what is the tech basket Raoul is using to average in with?
    • JJ
      JW2 J.
      30 June 2022 @ 05:56
      Large tech investment fund...look up the ticker SMT (Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust )
  • RL
    Randy L.
    30 June 2022 @ 00:01
    That is, what is in the Exponential Age Basket? Can we know that?
    • JJ
      JW2 J.
      30 June 2022 @ 05:56